Building predictive models of soil particle-size distribution

Is it possible to build predictive models (PMs) of soil particle-size distribution (psd) in a region with complex geology and a young and unstable land-surface? The main objective of this study was to answer this question. A set of 339 soil samples from a small slope catchment in Southern Brazil was used to build PMs of psd in the surface soil layer. Multiple linear regression models were constructed using terrain attributes (elevation, slope, catchment area, convergence index, and topographic wetness index). The PMs explained more than half of the data variance. This performance is similar to (or even better than) that of the conventional soil mapping approach. For some size fractions, the PM performance can reach 70 %. Largest uncertainties were observed in geologically more complex areas. Therefore, significant improvements in the predictions can only be achieved if accurate geological data is made available. Meanwhile, PMs built on terrain attributes are efficient in predicting the particle-size distribution (psd) of soils in regions of complex geology.

Cycle length of spermatogenesis in shrews (mammalia: soricidae) with high and low metabolic rates and different mating systems.

The aim of the present study was to establish and compare the durations of the seminiferous epithelium cycles of the common shrew Sorex araneus, which is characterized by a high metabolic rate and multiple paternity, and the greater white-toothed shrew Crocidura russula, which is characterized by a low metabolic rate and a monogamous mating system. Twelve S. araneus males and fifteen C. russula males were injected intraperitoneally with 5-bromodeoxyuridine, and the testes were collected. For cycle length determinations, we applied the classical method of estimation and linear regression as a new method. With regard to variance, and even with a relatively small sample size, the new method seems to be more precise. In addition, the regression method allows the inference of information for every animal tested, enabling comparisons of different factors with cycle lengths. Our results show that not only increased testis size leads to increased sperm production, but it also reduces the duration of spermatogenesis. The calculated cycle lengths were 8.35 days for S. araneus and 12.12 days for C. russula. The data obtained in the present study provide the basis for future investigations into the effects of metabolic rate and mating systems on the speed of spermatogenesis.

Estimation of water percolation by different methods using TDR

Detailed knowledge on water percolation into the soil in irrigated areas is fundamental for solving problems of drainage, pollution and the recharge of underground aquifers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the percolation estimated by time-domain-reflectometry (TDR) in a drainage lysimeter. We used Darcy's law with K(θ) functions determined by field and laboratory methods and by the change in water storage in the soil profile at 16 points of moisture measurement at different time intervals. A sandy clay soil was saturated and covered with plastic sheet to prevent evaporation and an internal drainage trial in a drainage lysimeter was installed. The relationship between the observed and estimated percolation values was evaluated by linear regression analysis. The results suggest that percolation in the field or laboratory can be estimated based on continuous monitoring with TDR, and at short time intervals, of the variations in soil water storage. The precision and accuracy of this approach are similar to those of the lysimeter and it has advantages over the other evaluated methods, of which the most relevant are the possibility of estimating percolation in short time intervals and exemption from the predetermination of soil hydraulic properties such as water retention and hydraulic conductivity. The estimates obtained by the Darcy-Buckingham equation for percolation levels using function K(θ) predicted by the method of Hillel et al. (1972) provided compatible water percolation estimates with those obtained in the lysimeter at time intervals greater than 1 h. The methods of Libardi et al. (1980), Sisson et al. (1980) and van Genuchten (1980) underestimated water percolation.

Impacts of land leveling on lowland soil physical properties

The practice of land leveling alters the soil surface to create a uniform slope to improve land conditions for the application of all agricultural practices. The aims of this study were to evaluate the impacts of land leveling through the magnitudes, variances and spatial distributions of selected soil physical properties of a lowland area in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; the relationships between the magnitude of cuts and/or fills and soil physical properties after the leveling process; and evaluation of the effect of leveling on the spatial distribution of the top of the B horizon in relation to the soil surface. In the 0-0.20 m layer, a 100-point geo-referenced grid covering two taxonomic soil classes was used in assessment of the following soil properties: soil particle density (Pd) and bulk density (Bd); total porosity (Tp), macroporosity (Macro) and microporosity (Micro); available water capacity (AWC); sand, silt, clay, and dispersed clay in water (Disp clay) contents; electrical conductivity (EC); and weighted average diameter of aggregates (WAD). Soil depth to the top of the B horizon was also measured before leveling. The overall effect of leveling on selected soil physical properties was evaluated by paired "t" tests. The effect on the variability of each property was evaluated through the homogeneity of variance test. The thematic maps constructed by kriging or by the inverse of the square of the distances were visually analyzed to evaluate the effect of leveling on the spatial distribution of the properties and of the top of the B horizon in relation to the soil surface. Linear regression models were fitted with the aim of evaluating the relationship between soil properties and the magnitude of cuts and fills. Leveling altered the mean value of several soil properties and the agronomic effect was negative. The mean values of Bd and Disp clay increased and Tp, Macro and Micro, WAD, AWC and EC decreased. Spatial distributions of all soil physical properties changed as a result of leveling and its effect on all soil physical properties occurred in the whole area and not specifically in the cutting or filling areas. In future designs of leveling, we recommend overlaying a cut/fill map on the map of soil depth to the top of the B horizon in order to minimize areas with shallow surface soil after leveling.

Evaluation of statistical and geostatistical models of digital soil properties mapping in tropical mountain regions

Soil properties have an enormous impact on economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. Quantitative relationships between soil properties and the factors that influence their variability are the basis of digital soil mapping. The predictive models of soil properties evaluated in this work are statistical (multiple linear regression-MLR) and geostatistical (ordinary kriging and co-kriging). The study was conducted in the municipality of Bom Jardim, RJ, using a soil database with 208 sampling points. Predictive models were evaluated for sand, silt and clay fractions, pH in water and organic carbon at six depths according to the specifications of the consortium of digital soil mapping at the global level (GlobalSoilMap). Continuous covariates and categorical predictors were used and their contributions to the model assessed. Only the environmental covariates elevation, aspect, stream power index (SPI), soil wetness index (SWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and b3/b2 band ratio were significantly correlated with soil properties. The predictive models had a mean coefficient of determination of 0.21. Best results were obtained with the geostatistical predictive models, where the highest coefficient of determination 0.43 was associated with sand properties between 60 to 100 cm deep. The use of a sparse data set of soil properties for digital mapping can explain only part of the spatial variation of these properties. The results may be related to the sampling density and the quantity and quality of the environmental covariates and predictive models used.

Macronutrient uptake, accumulation and export by the irrigated 'vitória' pineapple plant

The nutritional state of the pineapple plant has a large effect on plant growth, on fruit production, and fruit quality. The aim of this study was to assess the uptake, accumulation, and export of nutrients by the irrigated 'Vitória' pineapple plant during and at the end of its development. A randomized block statistical design with four replications was used. The treatments were defined by different times of plant collection: at 270, 330, 390, 450, 510, 570, 690, 750, and 810 days after planting (DAP). The collected plants were separated into the following components: leaves, stem, roots, fruit, and slips for determination of fresh and dry matter weight at 65 ºC. After drying, the plant components were ground for characterization of the composition and content of nutrients taken up and exported by the pineapple plant. The results were subjected to analysis of variance, and non-linear regression models were fitted for the significant differences identified by the F test (p<0.01). The leaves and the stem were the plant components that showed the greatest accumulation of nutrients. For production of 72 t ha-1 of fruit, the macronutrient accumulation in the 'Vitória' pineapple exhibited the following decreasing order: K > N > S > Ca > Mg > P, which corresponded to 898, 452, 134, 129, 126, and 107 kg ha-1, respectively, of total accumulation. The export of macronutrients by the pineapple fruit was in the following decreasing order: K > N > S > Ca > P > Mg, which was equivalent to 18, 17, 11, 8, 8, and 5 %, respectively, of the total accumulated by the pineapple. The 'Vitória' pineapple plant exported 78 kg ha-1 of N, 8 kg ha-1 of P, 164 kg ha-1 of K, 14 kg ha-1 of S, 10 kg ha-1 of Ca, and 6 kg ha-1 of Mg by the fruit. The nutrient content exported by the fruits represent important components of nutrient extraction from the soil, which need to be restored, while the nutrients contained in the leaves, stems and roots can be incorporated in the soil within a program of recycling of crop residues.

Association between smoking and total energy expenditure in a multi-country study.

BACKGROUND: The association between smoking and total energy expenditure (TEE) is still controversial. We examined this association in a multi-country study where TEE was measured in a subset of participants by the doubly labeled water (DLW) method, the gold standard for this measurement. METHODS: This study includes 236 participants from five different African origin populations who underwent DLW measurements and had complete data on the main covariates of interest. Self-reported smoking status was categorized as either light (<7 cig/day) or high (≥7 cig/day). Lean body mass was assessed by deuterium dilution and physical activity (PA) by accelerometry. RESULTS: The prevalence of smoking was 55% in men and 16% in women with a median of 6.5 cigarettes/day. There was a trend toward lower BMI in smokers than non-smokers (not statistically significant). TEE was strongly correlated with fat-free mass (men: 0.70; women: 0.79) and with body weight (0.59 in both sexes). Using linear regression and adjusting for body weight, study site, age, PA, alcohol intake and occupation, TEE was larger in high smokers than in never smokers among men (difference of 298 kcal/day, p = 0.045) but not among women (162 kcal/day, p = 0.170). The association became slightly weaker in men (254 kcal/day, p = 0.058) and disappeared in women (-76 kcal/day, p = 0.380) when adjusting for fat-free mass instead of body weight. CONCLUSION: There was an association between smoking and TEE among men. However, the lack of an association among women, which may be partly related to the small number of smoking women, also suggests a role of unaccounted confounding factors.

Estimating the time since discharge of spent cartridges: a logical approach fro interpreting the evidence

Estimating the time since discharge of a spent cartridge or a firearm can be useful in criminal situa-tions involving firearms. The analysis of volatile gunshot residue remaining after shooting using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) followed by gas chromatography (GC) was proposed to meet this objective. However, current interpretative models suffer from several conceptual drawbacks which render them inadequate to assess the evidential value of a given measurement. This paper aims to fill this gap by proposing a logical approach based on the assessment of likelihood ratios. A probabilistic model was thus developed and applied to a hypothetical scenario where alternative hy-potheses about the discharge time of a spent cartridge found on a crime scene were forwarded. In order to estimate the parameters required to implement this solution, a non-linear regression model was proposed and applied to real published data. The proposed approach proved to be a valuable method for interpreting aging-related data.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Swiss population

Introduction: The latest data on prevalence of overweight (OW) and obesity (OB) in the general Swiss resident population rely on the Swiss Health Survey (SHS), a telephonic interview performed in 2007. However, body mass index (BMI) is underestimated when self-reported, leading to a misclassification of up to 60% of obese subjects. The last survey with measured BMI performed in the 3 linguistic regions of Switzerland dates back to 1977. We explored the regional prevalences of OW and OB by measured BMI in the general Swiss resident population. Methods: Cross-sectional population-based survey in the 3 linguistic regions of Switzerland in 2010-2011. Data on 1471 participants aged 15-95 years (712 men, 759 women) were available for the analysis. BMI was calculated from measured height and weight and categorized into 3 groups according to WHO classification: lean (<25 kg/m2), overweight (25-30 kg/m2) and obese (>= 30 kg/m2). Data on medication, smoking, education, physical activity and dietary habitudes were collected using a questionnaire. Results: The overall prevalence of OW and OB was 32.1% and 13.9%, respectively. OB prevalence was similar across the 3 linguistic regions (13.5% in German-, 15.6% in French- and 12.0% in Italian-speaking Switzerland, p = 0.40), unlike OW prevalence, which significantly differed in unadjusted analyses (35.4%, 29.1% and 25.4%, respectively, p = 0.005). In analyses including age, sex, smoking, physical activity and education as covariates, living in the Italian-speaking region was associated neither with BMI (linear regression) nor with OW or OB (logistic regressions) . Age (beta coefficient [SE]: 0.064[0.006] kg/m2 per year, p <0.001) and sex (-1.76 [0.23] kg/m2 in women, p <0.001) were significantly associated with BMI. Conclusions: Overweight and obesity affect nearly half of the Swiss population aged >15 years. We observed no significant differences across regions once we accounted for age, sex, education and lifestyle. Public health interventions addressing modifiable behavioral factors to reduce overweight and obesity in Switzerland can be expected to have substantial benefits.

Clinical factors associated with trabecular bone score.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurement of bone mineral density (BMD) is the reference standard for diagnosing osteoporosis but does not directly reflect deterioration in bone microarchitecture. The trabecular bone score (TBS), a novel grey-level texture measurement that can be extracted from DXA images, predicts osteoporotic fractures independent of BMD. Our aim was to identify clinical factors that are associated with baseline lumbar spine TBS. In total, 29,407 women ≥50yr at the time of baseline hip and spine DXA were identified from a database containing all clinical results for the Province of Manitoba, Canada. Lumbar spine TBS was derived for each spine DXA examination blinded to clinical parameters and outcomes. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression (lowest vs highest tertile) was used to define the sensitivity of TBS to other risk factors associated with osteoporosis. Only a small component of the TBS measurement (7-11%) could be explained from BMD measurements. In multiple linear regression and logistic regression models, reduced lumbar spine TBS was associated with recent glucocorticoid use, prior major fracture, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, high alcohol intake, and higher body mass index. In contrast, recent osteoporosis therapy was associated with a significantly lower likelihood for reduced TBS. Similar findings were seen after adjustment for lumbar spine or femoral neck BMD. In conclusion, lumbar spine TBS is strongly associated with many of the risk factors that are predictive of osteoporotic fractures. Further work is needed to determine whether lumbar spine TBS can replace some of the clinical risk factors currently used in fracture risk assessment.

Potential of Spectroradiometry to Classify Soil Clay Content

ABSTRACT Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is a fast and cheap alternative for soil clay, but needs further investigation to assess the scope of application. The purpose of the study was to develop a linear regression model to predict clay content from DRS data, to classify the soils into three textural classes, similar to those defined by a regulation of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply. The DRS data of 412 soil samples, from the 0.0-0.5 m layer, from different locations in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, were measured at wavelengths of 350 to 2,500 nm in the laboratory. The fitting of the linear regression model developed to predict soil clay content from the DRS data was based on a R2 value of 0.74 and 0.75, with a RMSE of 7.82 and 8.51 % for the calibration and validation sets, respectively. Soil texture classification had an overall accuracy of 79.0 % (calibration) and 80.9 % (validation). The heterogeneity of soil samples affected the performance of the prediction models. Future studies should consider a previous classification of soil samples in different groups by soil type, parent material and/or sampling region.

Impact of different adiposity measures on the relation between serum uric acid and blood pressure in young adults.

Serum uric acid (SUA) concentration is independently associated with blood pressure (BP) in adults. We examined this association in young adults at an age where anti-hypertension treatment, other potential confounding factors and co-morbidity are unlikely to occur. We assessed BP, anthropometric variables including weight, height, waist circumference (WC), body fat percent (using bioimpedance), lifestyle behaviors, SUA and blood lipids in 549 participants aged 19-20 years from a population-based cohort study (Seychelles Child Development Study). Mean (s.d.) SUA was higher in males than females, 0.33 (0.08) and 0.24 (0.07) mmol l(-1), respectively. Body mass index (BMI) was higher in females than males but BP was markedly higher in males than in females. SUA was associated with both systolic and diastolic BP. However, the magnitude of the linear regression coefficients relating BP and SUA decreased by up to 50% upon adjustment for BMI, WC or body fat percent. The association between SUA and BP was not altered upon further adjustment for alcohol intake, smoking, triglycerides or renal function. In fully adjusted models, SUA remained associated with BP (P<0.05) in females. In conclusion, adiposity substantially decreased the association between SUA and BP in young adults, and BP was independently associated with SUA in females. These findings suggest a role of adiposity in the link between hyperuricemia and hypertension.

Plasma lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity in Alzheimer's disease, amnestic mild cognitive impairment, and cognitively healthy elderly subjects: a cross-sectional study.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) is a circulating enzyme with pro-inflammatory and oxidative activities associated with cardiovascular disease and ischemic stroke. While high plasma Lp-PLA2 activity was reported as a risk factor for dementia in the Rotterdam study, no association between Lp-PLA2 mass and dementia or Alzheimer's disease (AD) was detected in the Framingham study. The objectives of the current study were to explore the relationship of plasma Lp-PLA2 activity with cognitive diagnoses (AD, amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI), and cognitively healthy subjects), cardiovascular markers, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers of AD, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype. METHODS: Subjects with mild AD (n = 78) and aMCI (n = 59) were recruited from the Memory Clinic, University Hospital, Basel, Switzerland; cognitively healthy subjects (n = 66) were recruited from the community. Subjects underwent standardised medical, neurological, neuropsychological, imaging, genetic, blood and CSF evaluation. Differences in Lp-PLA2 activity between the cognitive diagnosis groups were tested with ANOVA and in multiple linear regression models with adjustment for covariates. Associations between Lp-PLA2 and markers of cardiovascular disease and AD were explored with Spearman's correlation coefficients. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in plasma Lp-PLA2 activity between AD (197.1 (standard deviation, SD 38.4) nmol/min/ml) and controls (195.4 (SD 41.9)). Gender, statin use and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) were independently associated with Lp-PLA2 activity in multiple regression models. Lp-PLA2 activity was correlated with LDL and inversely correlated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL). AD subjects with APOE-ε4 had higher Lp-PLA2 activity (207.9 (SD 41.2)) than AD subjects lacking APOE-ε4 (181.6 (SD 26.0), P = 0.003) although this was attenuated by adjustment for LDL (P = 0.09). No strong correlations were detected for Lp-PLA2 activity and CSF markers of AD. CONCLUSION: Plasma Lp-PLA2 was not associated with a diagnosis of AD or aMCI in this cross-sectional study. The main clinical correlates of Lp-PLA2 activity in AD, aMCI and cognitively healthy subjects were variables associated with lipid metabolism.

Herramientas estadísticas para el estudio de perfiles de riesgo

En este documento se ilustra de un modo práctico, el empleo de tres instrumentos que permiten al actuario definir grupos arancelarios y estimar premios de riesgo en el proceso que tasa la clase para el seguro de no vida. El primero es el análisis de segmentación (CHAID y XAID) usado en primer lugar en 1997 por UNESPA en su cartera común de coches. El segundo es un proceso de selección gradual con el modelo de regresión a base de distancia. Y el tercero es un proceso con el modelo conocido y generalizado de regresión linear, que representa la técnica más moderna en la bibliografía actuarial. De estos últimos, si combinamos funciones de eslabón diferentes y distribuciones de error, podemos obtener el aditivo clásico y modelos multiplicativos

Strong EBV-specific CD8+ T-cell response in patients with early multiple sclerosis

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has been associated with multiple sclerosis (MS), however, most studies examining the relationship between the virus and the disease have been based on serologies, and if EBV is linked to MS, CD8+ T cells are likely to be involved as they are important both in MS pathogenesis and in controlling viruses. We hypothesized that valuable information on the link between MS and EBV would be ascertained from the study of frequency and activation levels of EBV-specific CD8+ T cells in different categories of MS patients and control subjects. We investigated EBV-specific cellular immune responses using proliferation and enzyme linked immunospot assays, and humoral immune responses by analysis of anti-EBV antibodies, in a cohort of 164 subjects, including 108 patients with different stages of MS, 35 with other neurological diseases and 21 healthy control subjects. Additionally, the cohort were all tested against cytomegalovirus (CMV), another neurotropic herpes virus not convincingly associated with MS, nor thought to be deleterious to the disease. We corrected all data for age using linear regression analysis over the total cohorts of EBV- and CMV-infected subjects. In the whole cohort, the rate of EBV and CMV infections were 99% and 51%, respectively. The frequency of IFN-gamma secreting EBV-specific CD8+ T cells in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) was significantly higher than that found in patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS), secondary-progressive MS, primary-progressive MS, patients with other neurological diseases and healthy controls. The shorter the interval between MS onset and our assays, the more intense was the EBV-specific CD8+ T-cell response. Confirming the above results, we found that EBV-specific CD8+ T-cell responses decreased in 12/13 patients with CIS followed prospectively for 1.0 +/- 0.2 years. In contrast, there was no difference between categories for EBV-specific CD4+ T cell, or for CMV-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses. Anti-EBV-encoded nuclear antigen-1 (EBNA-1)-specific antibodies correlated with EBV-specific CD8+ T cells in patients with CIS and RR-MS. However, whereas EBV-specific CD8+ T cells were increased the most in early MS, EBNA-1-specific antibodies were increased in early as well as in progressive forms of MS. Our data show high levels of CD8+ T-cell activation against EBV--but not CMV--early in the course of MS, which support the hypothesis that EBV might be associated with the onset of this disease.