Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The successional dynamics of lightning-initiated canopy gaps in the mangrove forests of Shark River, Everglades National Park, USA

Gap succession is a significant determinant of structure and development in most forest communities. Lightning strikes are an important source of canopy gaps in the mangrove forest of Everglades National Park. I investigated the successional dynamics of lightning-initiated canopy gaps to determine their influence on forest stand structure of the mixed mangrove forests ( Rhizophora mangle, Laguncularia racemosa, and Avicennia germinans ) of the Shark River. I measured gap size, gap shape, light environment, soil characteristics, woody debris, and fiddler crab abundance. I additionally measured the vegetative composition in a chronosequences of gap successional stages (new, recruiting, and growing gaps). I recorded survivorship, recruitment, growth and soil elevation dynamics within a subset of new and growing gaps. I determined the relationship between intact forest soil elevation and site hydrology in order to interpret the effects of lightning disturbance on soil elevation dynamics. ^ Gap size averaged 289 ± 20 m2 (± 1SE) and light transmittance decreased exponentially as gaps filled with saplings. Fine woody debris was highest in recruiting gaps. Soil strength was lower in the gaps than in the forest. The abundance of large and medium fiddler crab burrows increased linearly with total seedling abundance. Soil surface elevation declined in newly formed lightning gaps; this loss was due to a combination of superficial erosion (8.5 mm) and subsidence (60.9 mm). A distinct two-cohort recruitment pattern was evident in the seedling/sapling surveys, suggesting a partitioning of the succession between individuals present before and after lightning strike. In new gaps, the seedling recruitment rate was twice as high as in forest and the sapling population increased. At the growing gap stage, R. mangle seedling mortality was 10 times greater and sapling mortality was 13 times greater than recruitment. Growing gaps had reduced seedling stem elongation, sapling growth and adult growth. However, a few individuals (R. mangle saplings) were able to recruit into the adult life stage. In conclusion, the high density of R. mangle seedlings and saplings imply that lightning strike disturbances in these mangrove forests favor their recruitment over that of A. germinans and L. racemosa. ^

The European Union Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: The Limitations of the Opening towards the East

This article intends to study the evolution of the European Union foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Area throughout the Post-Cold War era. The aim is to analyze Brussels’ fundamental interests and limitations in the area, the strategies it has implemented in the last few years, and the extent to which the EU has been able to undermine the regional hegemons’ traditional supremacy. As will be highlighted, the Community’s chronic weaknesses, the local determination to preserve sovereignty and an increasing international geopolitical competition undermine any European aspiration to become a pre-eminent actor at the heart of the Eurasian continent in the near future.

Cost-effectiveness of zoledronic acid and strontium-89 as bone protecting treatments in addition to chemotherapy in patients with metastatic castrate-refractory prostate cancer: results from the TRAPEZE trial (ISRCTN 12808747)

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding zoledronic acid or strontium-89 to standard docetaxel chemotherapy for patients with castrate-refractory prostate cancer (CRPC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on resource use and quality of life for 707 patients collected prospectively in the TRAPEZE 2 × 2 factorial randomised trial (ISRCTN 12808747) were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of i) zoledronic acid versus no zoledronic acid (ZA vs. no ZA), and ii) strontium-89 versus no strontium-89 (Sr89 vs. no Sr89). Costs were estimated from the perspective of the National Health Service in the UK and included expenditures for trial treatments, concomitant medications, and use of related hospital and primary care services. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated according to patients' responses to the generic EuroQol EQ-5D-3L instrument, which evaluates health status. Results are expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

RESULTS: The per-patient cost for ZA was £12 667, £251 higher than the equivalent cost in the no ZA group. Patients in the ZA group had on average 0.03 QALYs more than their counterparts in no ZA group. The ICER for this comparison was £8 005. Sr89 was associated with a cost of £13 230, £1365 higher than no Sr89, and a gain of 0.08 QALYs compared to no Sr89. The ICER for Sr89 was £16 884. The probabilities of ZA and Sr89 being cost-effective were 0.64 and 0.60, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The addition of bone-targeting treatments to standard chemotherapy led to a small improvement in QALYs for a modest increase in cost (or cost-savings). ZA and Sr89 resulted in ICERs below conventional willingness-to-pay per QALY thresholds, suggesting that their addition to chemotherapy may represent a cost-effective use of resources.

ANNUAL REPORT OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COMMISSION FOR THE BLIND FOR THE FISCAL YEAR 1974-1975

The South Carolina Commission for the Blind reports to the Office of the Governor its annual report that includes summaries, financial statements, organizational charts, and directories.

An estimation of crash risks using a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique

Prevention and safety promotion programmes. Traditionally, in-depth investigations of crash risks are conducted using exposure controlled study or case-control methodology. However, these studies need either observational data for control cases or exogenous exposure data like vehicle-kilometres travel, entry flow or product of conflicting flow for a particular traffic location, or a traffic site. These data are not readily available and often require extensive data collection effort on a system-wide basis. Aim: The objective of this research is to propose an alternative methodology to investigate crash risks of a road user group in different circumstances using readily available traffic police crash data. Methods: This study employs a combination of a log-linear model and the quasi-induced exposure technique to estimate crash risks of a road user group. While the log-linear model reveals the significant interactions and thus the prevalence of crashes of a road user group under various sets of traffic, environmental and roadway factors, the quasi-induced exposure technique estimates relative exposure of that road user in the same set of explanatory variables. Therefore, the combination of these two techniques provides relative measures of crash risks under various influences of roadway, environmental and traffic conditions. The proposed methodology has been illustrated using Brisbane motorcycle crash data of five years. Results: Interpretations of results on different combination of interactive factors show that the poor conspicuity of motorcycles is a predominant cause of motorcycle crashes. Inability of other drivers to correctly judge the speed and distance of an oncoming motorcyclist is also evident in right-of-way violation motorcycle crashes at intersections. Discussion and Conclusions: The combination of a log-linear model and the induced exposure technique is a promising methodology and can be applied to better estimate crash risks of other road users. This study also highlights the importance of considering interaction effects to better understand hazardous situations. A further study on the comparison between the proposed methodology and case-control method would be useful.

Leveraging of software as a service by small and medium enterprises: Information systems capabilities and organisational complementarities

This research explored how small and medium enterprises can achieve success with software as a service (SaaS) applications from cloud. Based upon an empirical investigation of six growth oriented and early technology adopting small and medium enterprises, this study proposes a SaaS for small and medium enterprise success model with two approaches: one for basic and one for advanced benefits. The basic model explains the effective use of SaaS for achieving informational and transactional benefits. The advanced model explains the enhanced use of software as a service for achieving strategic and transformational benefits. Both models explicate the information systems capabilities and organizational complementarities needed for achieving success with SaaS.

Medicines information sources and services for consumers : A special focus on the Internet and people with depression

The range of consumer health and medicines information sources has diversified along with the increased use of the Internet. This has led to a drive to develop medicines information services and to better incorporate the Internet and e-mail into routine practice in health care and in community pharmacies. To support the development of such services more information is needed about the use of online information by consumers, particularly of those who may be the most likely to use and to benefit from the new sources and modes of medicines communication. This study explored the role and utilization of the Internet-based medicines information and information services in the context of a wider network of information sources accessible to the public in Finland. The overall aim was to gather information to develop better and more accessible sources of information for consumers and services to better meet the needs of consumers. Special focus was on the needs and information behavior among people with depression and using antidepressant medicines. This study applied both qualitative and quantitative methods. Consumer medicines information needs and sources were identified by analyzing the utilization of the University Pharmacy operated national drug information call center (Study I) and surveying Finnish adults (n=2348) use of the different medicines information sources (Study II). The utilization of the Internet as a source of antidepressant information among people with depression was explored by focus group discussions among people with depression and with current or past use of the antidepressant(s) (n=29, Studies III & IV). Pharmacy response to the needs of consumers in term of providing e-mail counseling was assessed by conducting a virtual pseudo customer study among the Finnish community pharmacies (n=161, Study V). Physicians and pharmacists were the primary sources of medicines information. People with mental disorders were more frequent users of telephone- and Internet-based medicines information sources and patient information leaflets than people without mental disorders. These sources were used to complement rather than replace information provided face-to-face by health professionals. People with depression used the Internet to seek facts about antidepressants, to share experiences with peers, and for the curiosity. They described that the access to online drug information was empowering. Some people reported lacking the skills necessary to assess the quality of online information. E-mail medication counseling services provided by community pharmacies were rare and varied in quality. Study results suggest that rather than discouraging the use of the Internet, health professionals should direct patients to use accurate and reliable sources of online medicines information. Health care providers, including community pharmacies should also seek to develop new ways of communicating information about medicines with consumers. This study determined that people with depression and using antidepressants need services enabling interactive communication not only with health care professionals, but also with peers. Further research should be focused on developing medicines information service facilitating communication among different patient and consumer groups.

Effects of cyanobacterial toxin microcystin-LR on the transcription levels of immune-related genes in grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella

Recent studies in mammals have revealed that the cyanobacterial toxin MC-LR suppresses immune functions. Nevertheless, immunotoxic effects of microcystins have been little studied in fish. In this paper, we present the profiles of the immune modulation of MC-LR in grass carp, and quantitative real-time PCR methodology was developed for the measurement of relative transcription changes of six immune-related genes in the spleen and head kidney of the grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella, which were intraperitoneally injected with 50 mu g MC-LR center dot kg(-1) body weight in a three-week period. This study was focused exclusively on gene transcription level changes at different time points after MC-LR exposure, so, only one dose was given. The investigated genes were interleukin-1 beta (IL-1 beta), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), type I interferon (Type I IFN), peptidoglycan recognition protein-L (PGRP-L), immunoglobulin M (IgM) and major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) genes. The results demonstrated that the transcription levels of the TNF-alpha, type I IFN, and PGRP-L genes in the spleen and head kidney were significantly low at all time points, and those of IL-1 beta were significantly low in the head kidney at different time points. In addition, IgM and MHC-I transcription levels were only significantly low in the spleen and head kidney at 21 d postinjection. The changes in the transcription levels of immune-related genes induced by MC-LR confirmed its effect on inhibiting immune function at the transcription level.

The role of economics in ecosystem based management: The case of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, First lessons learnt and way forward

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) sets out a plan of action relating to marine environmental policy and in particular to achieving ‘good environmental status’ (GES) in European marine waters by 2020. Article 8.1 (c) of the Directive calls for ‘an economic and social analysis of the use of those waters and of the cost of degradation of the marine environment’. The MSFD is ‘informed’ by the Ecosystem Approach to management, with GES interpreted in terms of ecosystem functioning and services provision. Implementation of the Ecosystem Approach is expected to be by adaptive management policy and practice. The initial socio-economic assessment was made by maritime EU Member States between 2011 and 2012, with future updates to be made on a regular basis. For the majority of Member States, this assessment has led to an exercise combining an analysis of maritime activities both at national and coastal zone scales, and an analysis of the non-market value of marine waters. In this paper we examine the approaches taken in more detail, outline the main challenges facing the Member States in assessing the economic value of achieving GES as outlined in the Directive and make recommendations for the theoretically sound and practically useful completion of the required follow-up economic assessments specified in the MSFD.

The role of economics in ecosystem based management: The case of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, First lessons learnt and way forward

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) sets out a plan of action relating to marine environmental policy and in particular to achieving ‘good environmental status’ (GES) in European marine waters by 2020. Article 8.1 (c) of the Directive calls for ‘an economic and social analysis of the use of those waters and of the cost of degradation of the marine environment’. The MSFD is ‘informed’ by the Ecosystem Approach to management, with GES interpreted in terms of ecosystem functioning and services provision. Implementation of the Ecosystem Approach is expected to be by adaptive management policy and practice. The initial socio-economic assessment was made by maritime EU Member States between 2011 and 2012, with future updates to be made on a regular basis. For the majority of Member States, this assessment has led to an exercise combining an analysis of maritime activities both at national and coastal zone scales, and an analysis of the non-market value of marine waters. In this paper we examine the approaches taken in more detail, outline the main challenges facing the Member States in assessing the economic value of achieving GES as outlined in the Directive and make recommendations for the theoretically sound and practically useful completion of the required follow-up economic assessments specified in the MSFD.

Repeat prescribing of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs excluding aspirin:how careful are we?

About 5% of all National Health Service prescriptions in Britain and a quarter of reports of suspected adverse reactions are accounted for by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Their prescription was investigated in two computerised group practices serving 11850 patients. Altogether 198 patients receiving repeat prescriptions of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs were identified and relevant clinical details extracted from their notes. Of these patients, 119 were over 65 years old; 172 were receiving one of six different non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; and 76 were taking drugs that can interact with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Ninety one patients had one or more medical conditions that may be aggravated by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and 36 had experienced side effects important enough for their treatment to be changed. A questionnaire to assess opinions and knowledge of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs was given to 42 general practitioners and 26 rheumatologists. Although the two groups showed a comparable knowledge of the properties and costs of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, they differed significantly in their views on the circumstances under which these drugs should be used. Clear guidelines on the prescription of these drugs would indicate when careful monitoring is essential for patients to benefit from them safely.

Analysis of Pan-European attitudes to the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea

At present, national-level policies concerning the eradication and control of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) differ widely across Europe. Some Scandinavian countries have enacted strong regulatory frameworks to eradicate the disease, whereas other countries have few formal policies. To examine these differences, the attitudes of stakeholders and policy makers in 17 European countries were investigated. A web-based questionnaire was sent to policy makers, government and private sector veterinarians, and representatives of farmers' organisations. On total, 131 individuals responded to the questionnaire and their responses were analysed by applying a method used in sociolinguistics: frame analysis. The results showed that the different attitudes of countries that applied compulsory or voluntary frameworks were associated with different views about the attribution or blame for BVD and the roles ascribed to farmers and other stakeholders in its eradication and control.