SAS macros for point and interval estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models

Aims and objectives  For prediction of risk of cardiovascular end points using survival models the proportional hazards assumption is often not met. Thus, non-proportional hazards models are more appropriate for developing risk prediction equations in such situations. However, computer program for evaluating the prediction performance of such models has been rarely addressed. We therefore developed SAS macro programs for evaluating the discriminative ability of a non-proportional hazards Weibull model developed by Anderson (1991) and that of a proportional hazards Weibull model using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Method  Two SAS macro programs for non-proportional hazards Weibull model using Proc NLIN and Proc NLP respectively and model validation using area under ROC curve (with its confidence limits) were written with SAS IML language. A similar SAS macro for proportional hazards Weibull model was also written.

Results  The computer program was applied to data on coronary heart disease incidence for a Framingham population cohort. The five risk factors considered were current smoking, age, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity. The predictive ability of the non-proportional hazard Weibull model was slightly higher than that of its proportional hazard counterpart. An advantage of SAS Proc NLP in terms of the example provided here is that it provides significance level for the parameter estimates whereas Proc NLIN does not.

Conclusion  The program is very useful for evaluating the predictive performance of non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models.

Making decisions about fertility : three facts GPs need to communicate to women

Background Average annual fertility rates in industrialised countries have been below two children per woman for the past 3 decades. The reasons behind women’s childbearing behaviour are complex. However, a lack of awareness regarding the consequences of delayed childbearing and the inability of reproductive technologies to overcome the ‘biological clock’ may be contributory factors.

Objective A narrative review guided by the research question: What do women need to know about the consequences of delayed childbearing in order to make informed decisions about their fertility?

Discussion There are three facts that women need to know in order to make informed decisions around their fertility: Some women want to have more children than they are able to have because they postpone childbearing; there can be medical consequences to delaying childbearing and; some women’s ideas about their fertility don’t match the ‘the scientific facts’. General practitioners are well placed to play a strategic role in the provision of timely, relevant information to help women make informed decisions about their fertility. Further research is needed to identify the most appropriate ways for GPs to communicate this information.

The accuracy of Fastloc-GPS locations and implications for animal tracking

Over recent years, a major breakthrough in marine animal tracking has occurred with the advent of Fastloc-GPS that provides highly accurate location data even for animals that only surface briefly such as sea turtles, marine mammals and penguins. We assessed the accuracy of Fastloc-GPS locations using fixed trials of tags in which >45 000 locations were obtained. Procedures for determining the speed of travel and heading were developed by simulating tracks and then adding Fastloc-GPS location errors. The levels of detail achievable for speed and heading estimates were illustrated by using empirical Fastloc-GPS data for a green turtle (Chelonia mydas, Linnaeus, 1758) travelling over 3000 km across the Indian Ocean. The accuracy of Fastloc-GPS locations varied as a function of the number of GPS satellites used in the location calculation. For example, when Fastloc-GPS locations were calculated using 4 GPS satellites, 50% of locations were within 36 m and 95% within 724 m of the true position. These values improved to 18 and 70 m, respectively, when 6 satellites were used. Simulations indicated that for animals travelling around 2·5 km h-1 (e.g. turtles, penguins and seals) and depending on the number of satellites used in the location calculation, robust speed and heading estimates would usually be obtained for locations only 1-6 h apart. Fastloc-GPS accuracy is several orders of magnitude better that conventional Argos tracking or light-based geolocation and consequently will allow new insights into small-scale movement patterns of marine animals.

A C-DBSCAN algorithm for determining bus-stop locations based on taxi GPS data

Determining suitable bus-stop locations is critical in improving the quality of bus services. Previous studies on selecting bus stop locations mainly consider environmental factors such as population density and traffic conditions, seldom of them consider the travel patterns of people, which is a key factor for determining bus-stop locations. In order to draw people’s travel patterns, this paper improves the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm to find hot pick-up and drop-off locations based on taxi GPS data. The discovered density-based hot locations could be regarded as the candidate for bus-stop locations. This paper further utilizes the improved DBSCAN algorithm, namely as C-DBSCAN in this paper, to discover candidate bus-stop locations to Capital International Airport in Beijing based on taxi GPS data in November 2012. Finally, this paper discusses the effects of key parameters in C-DBSCAN algorithm on the clustering results. Keywords Bus-stop locations, Public transport service, Taxi GPS data, Centralize density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise.

Toward a receiver-based theory of knowledge sharing

Managers and researchers alike have sought new ways to address the challenges of sharing dispersed knowledge in modern business environments. Careful consideration by sharers of receivers' knowledge needs and behaviours may improve the effectiveness of organisational knowledge sharing. This research examines how sharers react to their perceptions of receivers' knowledge needs and behaviours when making choices relating to sharing knowledge. The focus of this article is to propose and empirically explore a theoretical framework for a study of the role of the receiver in knowledge sharing - receiver-based theory. Data collected from two case studies highlight a key role played by perceived receiver knowledge needs and behaviours in shaping sharer choices when explicit knowledge is shared. A set of receiver influences on knowledge sharing is provided that highlights key receiver and sharer issues. The paper concludes that companies should develop better ways to connect potential sharers with receivers' real knowledge needs. Further, the findings suggest that sharing on a need-to-know basis hinders change in organisational power structures, and prevents the integration of isolated pockets of knowledge that may yield new value. © 2008, IGI Global.

Combined use of GPS and accelerometry reveals fine scale three-dimensional foraging behaviour in the short-tailed shearwater

Determining the foraging behaviour of free-ranging marine animals is fundamental for assessing their habitat use and how they may respond to changes in the environment. However, despite recent advances in bio-logging technology, collecting information on both at-sea movement patterns and activity budgets still remains difficult in small pelagic seabird species due to the constraints of instrument size. The short-tailed shearwater, the most abundant seabird species in Australia (ca 23 million individuals), is a highly pelagic procellariiform. Despite its ecological importance to the region, almost nothing is known about its at-sea behaviour, in particular, its foraging activity. Using a combination of GPS and tri-axial accelerometer data-loggers, the fine scale three-dimensional foraging behaviour of 10 breeding individuals from two colonies was investigated. Five at-sea behaviours were identified: (1) resting on water, (2) flapping flight, (3) gliding flight, (4) foraging (i.e., surface foraging and diving events), and (5) taking-off. There were substantial intra- and inter- individual variations in activity patterns, with individuals spending on average 45.8% (range: 17.1-70.0%) of time at sea resting on water and 18.2% (range: 2.3-49.6%) foraging. Individuals made 76.4 ± 65.3 dives (range: 8-237) per foraging trip (mean duration 9.0 ± 1.9 s), with dives also recorded during night-time. With the continued miniaturisation of recording devices, the use of combined data-loggers could provide us with further insights into the foraging behaviour of small procellariiforms, helping to better understand interactions with their prey.

3T3-L1 adipocytes display phenotypic characteristics of multiple adipocyte lineages

Differentiated 3T3-L1 adipocytes are a widely used in vitro model of white adipocytes. In addition to classical white and brown adipocytes that are derived from different cell lineages, beige adipocytes have also been identified, which have characteristics of both white and brown adipocytes. Here we show that 3T3-L1 adipocytes display features of multiple adipocytes lineages. While the gene expression profile and basal bioenergetics of 3T3-L1 adipocytes was typical of white adipocytes, they responded acutely to catecholamines by increasing oxygen consumption in an UCP1-dependent manner, and by increasing the expression of genes enriched in brown but not beige adipocytes. Chronic exposure to catecholamines exacerbated this phenotype. However, a beige adipocyte differentiation procedure did not induce a beige adipocyte phenotype in 3T3-L1 fibroblasts. These multiple lineage features should be considered when interpreting data from experiments utilizing 3T3-L1 adipocytes.