Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Foliar carbohydrates content and invertase activity in vines at São Francisco River Valley - Brazil

The irrigated agriculture at the São Francisco River Valley, Northeast Brazil, shows an increasing production of grapes for winery. Among the wines produced there the one obtained from Vitis vinifera L., cultivar Syrah, stands out due to its adaptation to the climatic conditions of the region. However, little is known about carbohydrates metabolism of vines cultivated in this region. The objective of this work was to evaluate sugar and starch contents and the invertase activity in vines leaves during two consecutive growing seasons. The experiment was carried out at Embrapa Semi-Árido and at Santa Maria Winery, respectively located in Petrolina and Lagoa Grande, Pernambuco-Brazil. Leaves were collected weekly from January to December of 2003 and assessed for reducing sugars, total soluble sugars and starch contents, as well as for acid (AI) and neutral invertases (NI). The results showed that reducing sugars, total soluble sugars and starch contents increased during fruit maturation and are influenced by temperature, radiation and insolation variations. The second growing season showed higher reducing sugars and total soluble sugars content and lower starch content in the leaves than the first one. AI activity was higher than NI activity and these also varied according to weather conditions. During berries ripening, leaves showed higher sugar content and invertase activity, suggesting a higher sugar metabolism and transport during this phase.

Morte súbita dos citros: suscetibilidade de seleções de limão-cravo e uso de interenxertos

A morte súbita dos citros é uma doença que afeta cultivares de laranjas e tangerinas enxertadas nos limões-Cravo e Volkameriano. Ela foi observada em plantas com dois a seis anos de idade que, após mostrarem sintomas gerais de declínio, entraram em colapso e morreram. A retirada da casca dos porta-enxertos suscetíveis revela o amarelecimento na região cambial, sendo esse o sintoma-diagnóstico da doença e que precede os sintomas da copa. As plantas enxertadas nas tangerinas Cleópatra e Sunki, no trifoliata e no citrumelo Swingle, não mostram sintomas da doença. A transmissão por borbulha e a evolução espacial sugerem que a morte súbita dos citros seja causada por patógeno transmitido por vetor alado. Com o objetivo de selecionar porta-enxertos tolerantes à doença, laranjeiras Valência enxertadas em 254 porta-enxertos foram plantadas em maio de 2003 e 2004 em solos onde foram erradicados pomares afetados pela morte súbita dos citros e próximos a pomares afetados pela doença. Em novembro de 2006, o sintoma-diagnóstico da doença estava presente em dez seleções de limão-Cravo: Santa Barbara red lime, Borneo red lime, Limão-Cravo Taquaritinga, Rangpur India C-26-1, Rangpur rose lemon, Rangpur Kusaie lime, Rangpur red lime D-33-40, Rangpur Egyptian lime, Rangpur lemon India e Japanshe citroen. A presença de interenxerto de trifoliata ou de tangerina Cleópatra, entre o limão-Cravo e a laranja Valência, não impediu a manifestação da doença.

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The paper engages the question of how traditional religion persist in an increasingly problematic and complex swiss context. In particular, the chapter looks at the phenomenon of charismatic worship as a vehicle for resignifying the meaning of chronic suffering, over and against the traditional evangelical expectation that worldly hardship is but a temporary trial, to be endured and overcome by true believers. The experience of ongoing physical and psychological suffering is mediated by ritualized narratives, which resituate the afflicted "stakeholders" as important models of Christian life. In so doing, these narratives richly dramatize the resolution of theodicy by showing that, far from being absent in the lives of sufferers, God is especially present.