Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election

The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

'Response and Responsibility: Theories of the Implied Reader in Children's Literature Criticism'

Reader Response Theory remains popular within Children's Literature Criticism. It seems to offer a sensible resolution to the question of whether meaning derives from text or reader. Through a close reading of one example of this criticism, I suggest that its dualisms are constantly collapsing into appeals to singular authority. at various stages the text or the reader is wholly responsible for meaning. I further suggest that the criticism bypasses the question of interpretation through claiming knowledge of a child reader whose opinions and reactions can be unproblematically accessed. We do not have to worry about reading texts, because we can, apparently, know the child's response to them with certainty. Anything other than this claim to certainty is taken to be a failure of responsibility, a wallowing in the subjective, obscure and perverse. My intention is to reinstate reading as the responsibility of criticism.

The concept of exchangeability in ensemble forecasting

A set of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution function is invariant under permutation of the arguments. The concept of exchangeability is discussed, with a view towards potential application in evaluating ensemble forecasts. It is argued that the paradigm of ensembles being an independent draw from an underlying distribution function is probably too narrow; allowing ensemble members to be merely exchangeable might be a more versatile model. The question is discussed whether established methods of ensemble evaluation need alteration under this model, with reliability being given particular attention. It turns out that the standard methodology of rank histograms can still be applied. As a first application of the exchangeability concept, it is shown that the method of minimum spanning trees to evaluate the reliability of high dimensional ensembles is mathematically sound.

On the time-dependent analysis of Gamow decay

Gamow's explanation of the exponential decay law uses complex 'eigenvalues' and exponentially growing 'eigenfunctions'. This raises the question, how Gamow's description fits into the quantum mechanical description of nature, which is based on real eigenvalues and square integrable wavefunctions. Observing that the time evolution of any wavefunction is given by its expansion in generalized eigenfunctions, we shall answer this question in the most straightforward manner, which at the same time is accessible to graduate students and specialists. Moreover, the presentation can well be used in physics lectures to students.

Cloud bands over southern Africa: seasonality, contribution to rainfall variability, and modulation by the MJO

Tropical-extratropical cloud band systems over southern Africa, known as tropical temperate troughs (TTTs), are known to contribute substantially to South African summer rainfall. This study performs a comprehensive assessment of the seasonal cycle and rainfall contribution of TTTs by using a novel object-based strategy that explicitly tracks these systems for their full life cycle. The methodology incorporates a simple assignment of station rainfall data to each event, thereby creating a database containing detailed rainfall characteristics for each TTT. This is used to explore the importance of TTTs for rain days and climatological rainfall totals in October–March. Average contributions range from 30 to 60 % with substantial spatial heterogeneity observed. TTT rainfall contributions over the Highveld and eastern escarpment are lower than expected. A short analysis of TTT rainfall variability indicates TTTs provide substantial, but not dominant, intraseasonal and interannual variability in station rainfall totals. TTTs are however responsible for a high proportion of heavy rainfall days. Of 52 extreme rainfall events in the 1979–1999 period, 30 are associated with these tropical-extratropical interactions. Cut-off lows were included in the evolution of 6 of these TTTs. The study concludes with an analysis of the question: does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence the intensity of TTT rainfall over South Africa? Results suggest a weak but significant suppression (enhancement) of intensity during phase 1(6).

Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.

The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account

The paper reviews the leading diagramming methods employed in system dynamics to communicate the contents of models. The main ideas and historical development of the field are first outlined. Two diagramming methods—causal loop diagrams (CLDs) and stock/flow diagrams (SFDs)—are then described and their advantages and limitations discussed. A set of broad research directions is then outlined. These concern: the abilities of different diagrams to communicate different ideas, the role that diagrams have in group model building, and the question of whether diagrams can be an adequate substitute for simulation modelling. The paper closes by suggesting that although diagrams alone are insufficient, they have many benefits. However, since these benefits have emerged only as ‘craft wisdom’, a more rigorous programme of research into the diagrams' respective attributes is called for.

The repatriation of 1973 and the re-making of modern south Asia

In the aftermath of the 1971 war, nearly 250,000 people found themselves stranded in various parts of the subcontinent. These 'trapped minorities' became hostages in a complex negotiation process that highlighted how questions of citizenship and belonging remained unresolved in post-Partition South Asia. By studying three groups - the non-Bengalis, the Bengalis and the prisoners of war in a comparative perspective, this paper re-visits the question of who was welcome within certain borders and on what terms. It argues that these decisions depended not just on the state's policies towards 'outsiders' but also upon its own relationship with its minority communities.

NATO, Britain, France and the FRG: Nuclear Strategies and Forces for Europe, 1949-2000

This is vol. I of my two-volume study of the nuclear strategies/strategy preferences of NATO collectively, and individually of Britain, France, and West Germany in the Cold War. It shows that NATO strategy was a fragile compromise, and that these three countries, all within range of Soviet medium/intermediate range nuclear missiles and thus with less geostrategic difference than in previous military threat contexts, had wildly divergent strategies/preferences which cannot be explained merely by geography. It raises the question of what made them so different, addressed in Volume II "Nuclear Mentalities" (q.v.)

In the shadow of Grexit: the Greek election of 17 June 2012

This article provides an overview and analysis of the Greek June 2012 elections. Placing the elections within the broader framework of the Greek socio-political and economic context, it discusses the electoral campaign and results, juxtaposing them to the 6 May electoral round. The election results confirmed many of the trends of the previous round, including electoral volatility, the fragmentation of the party system and the rise of anti-establishment forces. The main difference was the entrenchment of the pro- versus anti- bailout division and the prominence of the question of Greece’s continued Eurozone membership.

Constraints on wave drag parameterization schemes for simulating the quasi-biennial oscillation. Part I: gravity wave forcing

Parameterization schemes for the drag due to atmospheric gravity waves are discussed and compared in the context of a simple one-dimensional model of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A number of fundamental issues are examined in detail, with the goal of providing a better understanding of the mechanism by which gravity wave drag can produce an equatorial zonal wind oscillation. The gravity wave–driven QBOs are compared with those obtained from a parameterization of equatorial planetary waves. In all gravity wave cases, it is seen that the inclusion of vertical diffusion is crucial for the descent of the shear zones and the development of the QBO. An important difference between the schemes for the two types of waves is that in the case of equatorial planetary waves, vertical diffusion is needed only at the lowest levels, while for the gravity wave drag schemes it must be included at all levels. The question of whether there is downward propagation of influence in the simulated QBOs is addressed. In the gravity wave drag schemes, the evolution of the wind at a given level depends on the wind above, as well as on the wind below. This is in contrast to the parameterization for the equatorial planetary waves in which there is downward propagation of phase only. The stability of a zero-wind initial state is examined, and it is determined that a small perturbation to such a state will amplify with time to the extent that a zonal wind oscillation is permitted.

The role of necessity in international humanitarian and human rights law

The nature of armed conflict has changed dramatically in recent decades. In particular, it is increasingly the case that hostilities now occur alongside ‘everyday’ situations. This has led to a pressing need to determine when a ‘conduct of hostilities’ model (governed by international humanitarian law—IHL) applies and when a ‘law enforcement’ model (governed by international human rights law—IHRL) applies. This in turn raises the question of whether these two legal regimes are incompatible or whether they might be applied in parallel. It is on this question that the current paper focuses, examining it at the level of principle. Whilst most accounts of the principles underlying these two areas of law focus on humanitarian considerations, few have compared the role played by necessity in each. This paper seeks to address this omission. It demonstrates that considerations of necessity play a prominent role in both IHL and IHRL, albeit with differing consequences. It then applies this necessity-based analysis to suggest a principled basis for rationalising the relationship between IHL and IHRL, demonstrating how this approach would operate in practice. It is shown that, by emphasising the role of necessity in IHL and IHRL, an approach can be adopted that reconciles the two in a manner that is sympathetic to their object and purpose.

The dependent variable problem in quantitative studies of Active Labour Market Programmes: uncovering hidden dynamics?

The question of what explains variation in expenditures on Active Labour Market Programs (ALMPs) has attracted significant scholarship in recent years. Significant insights have been gained with respect to the role of employers, unions and dual labour markets, openness, and partisanship. However, there remain significant disagreements with respects to key explanatory variables such the role of unions or the impact of partisanship. Qualitative studies have shown that there are both good conceptual reasons as well as historical evidence that different ALMPs are driven by different dynamics. There is little reason to believe that vastly different programs such as training and employment subsidies are driven by similar structural, interest group or indeed partisan dynamics. The question is therefore whether different ALMPs have the same correlation with different key explanatory variables identified in the literature? Using regression analysis, this paper shows that the explanatory variables identified by the literature have different relation to distinct ALMPs. This refinement adds significant analytical value and shows that disagreements are at least partly due to a dependent variable problem of ‘over-aggregation’.

Evidence for an association with type 2 diabetes mellitus at the PPARG locus in a South Indian population

Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma2 (PPARG2) is a nuclear hormone receptor of ligand-dependent transcription factor involved in adipogenesis and a molecular target of the insulin sensitizers thiazolidinediones. We addressed the question of whether the 3 variants (-1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His) in the PPARG2 gene are associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its related traits in a South Indian population. The study subjects (1000 type 2 diabetes mellitus and 1000 normal-glucose-tolerant subjects) were chosen randomly from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study, an ongoing population-based study in southern India. The variants were screened by single-stranded conformational variant, direct sequencing, and restriction fragment length polymorphism. Linkage disequilibrium was estimated from the estimates of haplotypic frequencies. The -1279G/A, Pro12Ala, and His478His variants of the PPARG2 gene were not associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the 2-loci analyses showed that, in the presence of Pro/Pro genotype of the Pro12Ala variant, the -1279G/A promoter variant showed increased susceptibility to type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 2.092; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.59; P = .008), whereas in the presence of 12Ala allele, the -1279G/A showed a protective effect against type 2 diabetes mellitus (odds ratio, 0.270; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.49; P < .0001). The 3-loci haplotype analysis showed that the A-Ala-T (-1279G/A-Pro12Ala-His478His) haplotype was associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (P < .0001). Although our data indicate that the PPARG2 gene variants, independently, have no association with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the 2-loci genotype analysis involving -1279G/A and Pro12Ala variants and the 3-loci haplotype analysis have shown a significant association with type 2 diabetes mellitus in this South Indian population.

Greasing the wheels? The impact of regulations and corruption on firm entry

This paper investigates the question of whether corruption might ‘grease the wheels’ of an economy. We investigate whether and to what extent the impact of regulations on entrepreneurship is dependent on corruption. We first test whether regulations robustly deter firm entry into markets. Our results show that the existence of a larger number of procedures required to start a business, as well as larger minimum capital requirements are detrimental to entrepreneurship. Second, we test whether corruption reduces the negative impact of regulations on entrepreneurship in highly regulated economies. Our empirical analysis, covering a maximum of 43 countries over the 2003–2005 period, shows that corruption facilitates firm entry in highly regulated economies. For example, the ‘greasing’ effect of corruption kicks in at around 50 days required to start a new business. Our results thus provide support for the ‘grease the wheels’ hypothesis.