Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence.Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment,were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa,Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted

Reconstructing paleosalinity from δ18O: coupled model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum, Last Interglacial and Late Holocene

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ∼50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (> 40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented and used with sim- ulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models and the BIOME4 vegetation model to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Simulated biome distribu- tions using BIOME4 driven by HadCM3 and FAMOUS at the global scale over time generally agree well with those in- ferred from pollen data. Global average areas of grassland and dry shrubland, desert, and tundra biomes show large- scale increases during the Last Glacial Maximum, between ca. 64 and 74 ka BP and cool substages of Marine Isotope Stage 5, at the expense of the tropical forest, warm-temperate forest, and temperate forest biomes. These changes are re- flected in BIOME4 simulations of global net primary pro- ductivity, showing good agreement between the two models. Such changes are likely to affect terrestrial carbon storage, which in turn influences the stable carbon isotopic composi- tion of seawater as terrestrial carbon is depleted in 13C.

SHIMMER (1.0): a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems

SHIMMER (Soil biogeocHemIcal Model for Microbial Ecosystem Response) is a new numerical modelling framework designed to simulate microbial dynamics and biogeochemical cycling during initial ecosystem development in glacier forefield soils. However, it is also transferable to other extreme ecosystem types (such as desert soils or the surface of glaciers). The rationale for model development arises from decades of empirical observations in glacier forefields, and enables a quantitative and process focussed approach. Here, we provide a detailed description of SHIMMER, test its performance in two case study forefields: the Damma Glacier (Switzerland) and the Athabasca Glacier (Canada) and analyse sensitivity to identify the most sensitive and unconstrained model parameters. Results show that the accumulation of microbial biomass is highly dependent on variation in microbial growth and death rate constants, Q10 values, the active fraction of microbial biomass and the reactivity of organic matter. The model correctly predicts the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass observed during the initial stages of succession in the forefields of both the case study systems. Primary production is responsible for the initial build-up of labile substrate that subsequently supports heterotrophic growth. However, allochthonous contributions of organic matter, and nitrogen fixation, are important in sustaining this productivity. The development and application of SHIMMER also highlights aspects of these systems that require further empirical research: quantifying nutrient budgets and biogeochemical rates, exploring seasonality and microbial growth and cell death. This will lead to increased understanding of how glacier forefields contribute to global biogeochemical cycling and climate under future ice retreat.

Genomic evidence for the Pleistocene and recent population history of Native Americans

How and when the Americas were populated remains contentious. Using ancient and modern genome-wide data, we found that the ancestors of all present-day Native Americans, including Athabascans and Amerindians, entered the Americas as a single migration wave from Siberia no earlier than 23 thousand years ago (ka) and after no more than an 8000-year isolation period in Beringia. After their arrival to the Americas, ancestral Native Americans diversified into two basal genetic branches around 13 ka, one that is now dispersed across North and South America and the other restricted to North America. Subsequent gene flow resulted in some Native Americans sharing ancestry with present-day East Asians (including Siberians) and, more distantly, Australo-Melanesians. Putative “Paleoamerican” relict populations, including the historical Mexican Pericúes and South American Fuego-Patagonians, are not directly related to modern Australo-Melanesians as suggested by the Paleoamerican Model.

Glacial lake drainage in Patagonia (13-8 kyr) and response of the adjacent Pacific Ocean

Large freshwater lakes formed in North America and Europe during deglaciation following the Last Glacial Maximum. Rapid drainage of these lakes into the Oceans resulted in abrupt perturbations in climate, including the Younger Dryas and 8.2 kyr cooling events. In the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere major glacial lakes also formed and drained during deglaciation but little is known about the magnitude, organization and timing of these drainage events and their e ect on regional climate. We use 16 new single-grain optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dates to de ne three stages of rapid glacial lake drainage in the Lago General Carrera/Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Cohrane/ Pueyrredón basins of Patagonia and provide the rst assessment of the e ects of lake drainage on the Paci c Ocean. Lake drainage occurred between 13 and 8 kyr ago and was initially gradual eastward into the Atlantic, then subsequently reorganized westward into the Paci c as new drainage routes opened up during Patagonian Ice Sheet deglaciation. Coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments using HadCM3 with an imposed freshwater surface “hosing” to simulate glacial lake drainage suggest that a negative salinity anomaly was advected south around Cape Horn, resulting in brief but signi cant impacts on coastal ocean vertical mixing and regional climate.

The biogeophysical climatic impacts of anthropogenic land use change during the Holocene

The first agricultural societies were established around 10 ka BP and had spread across much of Europe and southern Asia by 5.5 ka BP with resultant anthropogenic deforestation for crop and pasture land. Various studies (e.g. Joos et al., 2004; Kaplan et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2013) have attempted to assess the biogeochemical implications for Holocene climate in terms of increased carbon dioxide and methane emissions. However, less work has been done to examine the biogeophysical impacts of this early land use change. In this study, global climate model simulations with Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) were used to examine the biogeophysical effects of Holocene land cover change on climate, both globally and regionally, from the early Holocene (8 ka BP) to the early industrial era (1850 CE). Two experiments were performed with alternative descriptions of past vegetation: (i) one in which potential natural vegetation was simulated by Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics (TRIFFID) but without land use changes and (ii) one where the anthropogenic land use model Kaplan and Krumhardt 2010 (KK10; Kaplan et al., 2009, 2011) was used to set the HadCM3 crop regions. Snapshot simulations were run at 1000-year intervals to examine when the first signature of anthropogenic climate change can be detected both regionally, in the areas of land use change, and globally. Results from our model simulations indicate that in regions of early land disturbance such as Europe and south-east Asia detectable temperature changes, outside the normal range of variability, are encountered in the model as early as 7 ka BP in the June–July–August (JJA) season and throughout the entire annual cycle by 2–3 ka BP. Areas outside the regions of land disturbance are also affected, with virtually the whole globe experiencing significant temperature changes (predominantly cooling) by the early industrial period. The global annual mean temperature anomalies found in our single model simulations were −0.22 at 1850 CE, −0.11 at 2 ka BP, and −0.03 °C at 7 ka BP. Regionally, the largest temperature changes were in Europe with anomalies of −0.83 at 1850 CE, −0.58 at 2 ka BP, and −0.24 °C at 7 ka BP. Large-scale precipitation features such as the Indian monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the North Atlantic storm track are also impacted by local land use and remote teleconnections. We investigated how advection by surface winds, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies, and tropospheric stationary wave train disturbances in the mid- to high latitudes led to remote teleconnections.

Physical and sensory properties of regular and reduced-fat pound cakes with added amaranth flour

The sum of wheat flour and corn starch was replaced by 10, 20, or 30% whole amaranth flour in both conventional (C) and reduced fat (RF) pound cakes. and the effects on physical and sensory properties of the cakes were investigated. RF presented 33% fat reduction. The increasing amaranth levels darkened crust and crumb of cakes, which decreased color acceptability. Fresh amaranth-containing cakes had similar texture characteristics to (he controls, evaluated both instrumentally and sensorially. Sensory evaluation revealed that replacement by 30% amaranth flour decreased C cakes overall acceptability scores, clue to its lower specific volume and darker color. Amaranth flour levels had no significant effect on overall acceptability of RF cakes. Hence, the sum of wheat flour and corn starch could be successfully replaced by up to 20% amaranth flour in C and up to 30% in RF pound cakes without negatively affecting sensory quality in fresh cakes. Moisture losses for all the cakes were similar, approximate to 1% per day during storage. After six days of storage, both C and RF amaranth-containing cakes had higher hardness and chewiness values than control cakes. Further experiments involving sensory evaluation during storage are necessary to determine the exact limit of amaranth flour replacement.

Glädje i vårdandets värld

Föreliggande vårdvetenskapliga studie har som syfte att avtäcka och synliggöra glädjesom idé i vårdandets värld. Glädje sammanbinds med vårdandet genom kärleken somden tongivande kraften hos glädje. Vårdandets sak har genom historien alltid varit attlindra lidande och att tjäna liv och hälsa i en anda av kärlek och barmhärtighet. Dennastudie om glädje i vårdandet har en övergripande idéhistorisk inriktning och resultatetsammanställs i form av ett idémönster. Tolkningen sker genom en hermeneutisk ansatsmed fokus på förståelse av själva vårdandet. För att djupare förstå glädje, dessursprungsidé, väsen och uttrycksformer granskas begreppet ’glädje’ och de näraliggandebegreppen ’glad’ och ’ljus’ i etymologiska ordböcker samt i svenska, engelska ochlatinska ordböcker. Som stöd för tolkningen används klassiska texter innehållandefilosofers tankar om glädje. Glädje som idé glimtar fram i form av ett sjufaldigtmönster. Detta mönster innehåller särdrag hos glädje och det hjärtas natur somrespektive särdrag förverkligas i. I andlig mening utgör hjärtat livets medelpunkt ochkänslornas hemvist. Mönstret bildar bakgrund och blir vägledande vid den hermeneutiska läsningen omglädje, så som den framträder i berättelser om vårdande under åren 1900–1933. Dehistoriska källorna utgörs av facktidskriften Svensk sjukskötersketidning, böcker medberättelser om vårdande, arkivmaterial samt läroböcker om vårdarbete. Resultatetmynnar ut i ett idémönster, där idéer om det som gör glädje verksamt som vårdandeframträder. Dessa är det sanna hjärtats rena glädje – kärlek, glädje är ett kärleksbevis.Det brinnande hjärtats djupa glädje – livsglädje, glädje inspirerar och genererar kraft.Det bärande hjärtats glansfulla glädje – generositet, glädje är en gåva till den andra medlöfte om hjälp. Det inbjudande hjärtats glittrande glädje – gemenskap, glädje inbjudertill gemenskap. Det upprymda hjärtats uppsluppna glädje – integration, glädje gör attmänniskan kan glömma sitt lidande och närma sig den hon önskar vara. Detstämningsfulla hjärtats högtidliga glädje – bevärdigande, glädje skapar en anda ochatmosfär där människan upplever sig hedrad. Det fridfulla hjärtats stora glädje –räddning, en glädje visar sig när människan har erhållit det som kan begäras av gott ochundsluppet ont och är förnöjd med sin levnads lott. Förhoppningen är att dennagrundforskning ska öppna för ett nytt seende som kan leda till att glädjeuppmärksammas i vårdandets värld och artikuleras där.

Can humming caregivers´ facilitate feeding during mealtime situations with persons with dementia? A qualitative study

Background. ‘Music Therapeutic Caregiving’, defined as when caregivers’ sing for or together with persons with dementia care situations, has been shown to facilitate the caring situation, and enhance positive and decrease negative expressions in persons with dementia. No studies about singing during mealtimes have been conducted, and this project was designed to elucidate this. However, since previous studies have shown that there is a risk that persons with dementia will start to sing along with the caregiver, the caregiver in this study hummed such that the person with dementia did not sing instead of eat. Aim. To describe professional caregivers’ experiences of humming during meal time while feeding persons with dementia. Method. An intervention with caregivers humming was implemented during lunch time. Focus group interviews were conducted to fetch the caregivers experiences. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyse the interviews. Results. The caregivers described that humming disseminated relaxation and joy, and awakened memories about the songs hummed which encouraged the persons with the dementia to join in the songs. They also described that humming seemed to make the persons with dementia associate with mealtime and could make them eat more. However it also revealed suspiciousness and agitation from the persons with dementia. Conclusion. Humming during mealtime revealed mainly positive as well as some negative influences. More and larger studies are needed to be able to draw general conclusions.

Designing Agent-Oriented Systems by Analysing Agent Interactions

We propose a preliminary methodology for agent-oriented software engineering based on the idea of agent interaction analysis. This approach uses interactions between undetermined agents as the primary component of analysis and design. Agents as a basis for software engineering are useful because they provide a powerful and intuitive abstraction which can increase the comprehensiblity of a complex design. The paper describes a process by which the designer can derive the interactions that can occur in a system satisfying the given requirements and use them to design the structure of an agent-based system, including the identification of the agents themselves. We suggest that this approach has the flexibility necessary to provide agent-oriented designs for open and complex applications, and has value for future maintenance and extension of these systems.

Towards a Methodology for Coordination Mechanism Selection in Open Systems

Agent-oriented software engineering (AOSE) is a promising approach to developing applications for dynamic open systems. If well developed, these applications can be opportunistic, taking advantage of services implemented by other developers at appropriate times. However, methodologies are needed to aid the development of systems that are both flexible enough to be opportunistic and tightly defined by the application requirements. In this paper, we investigate how developers can choose the coordination mechanisms of agents so that the agents will best fulfil application requirements in an open system.