Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Acute Chagas disease in El Salvador 2000-2012 - Need for surveillance and control

Several parasitological studies carried out in El Salvador between 2000-2012 showed a higher frequency of acute cases of Chagas disease than that in other Central American countries. There is an urgent need for improved Chagas disease surveillance and vector control programs in the provinces where acute Chagas disease occurs and throughout El Salvador as a whole.

Ecoepidemiology, short history and control of Chagas disease in the endemic countries and the new challenge for non-endemic countries

Chagas disease is maintained in nature through the interchange of three cycles: the wild, peridomestic and domestic cycles. The wild cycle, which is enzootic, has existed for millions of years maintained between triatomines and wild mammals. Human infection was only detected in mummies from 4,000-9,000 years ago, before the discovery of the disease by Carlos Chagas in 1909. With the beginning of deforestation in the Americas, two-three centuries ago for the expansion of agriculture and livestock rearing, wild mammals, which had been the food source for triatomines, were removed and new food sources started to appear in peridomestic areas: chicken coops, corrals and pigsties. Some accidental human cases could also have occurred prior to the triatomines in peridomestic areas. Thus, triatomines progressively penetrated households and formed the domestic cycle of Chagas disease. A new epidemiological, economic and social problem has been created through the globalisation of Chagas disease, due to legal and illegal migration of individuals infected by Trypanosoma cruzi or presenting Chagas disease in its varied clinical forms, from endemic countries in Latin America to non-endemic countries in North America, Europe, Asia and Oceania, particularly to the United States of America and Spain. The main objective of the present paper was to present a general view of the interchanges between the wild, peridomestic and domestic cycles of the disease, the development of T. cruzi among triatomine, their domiciliation and control initiatives, the characteristics of the disease in countries in the Americas and the problem of migration to non-endemic countries.

Accidental cross-clamping of the superior vena cava: management and BIS evolution.

The case of a 38-year old man with recurrent adenocarcinoma of the right lung and infiltration of the thoracic wall, who underwent a right pneumonectomy with thoracic wall resection, is described. Dissection of the right pulmonary hilous was extremely difficult due to the previous operations. The superior vena cava (SVC) was accidentally ligated, resulting in profound hypotension and increased venous pressure in the internal jugular vein. Immediate blood aspiration through a 8.5-French introducer sheath lowered the venous congestion. After the SVC was cross-clamped, the Bispectral Index (BIS) acutely decreased to 0 and remained low during the resuscitation. Over the next 5 hours, BIS was directly affected by mean arterial pressure. Four days postoperatively, the patient was neurologically intact.

Prediction of sustained antihypertensive efficacy of chronic captopril therapy: relationships to immediate blood pressure response and control plasma renin activity

The blood pressure (BP) lowering effect of the orally active angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, captopril (SQ14225), was studied in 59 hypertensive patients maintained on a constant sodium intake. Within 2 hours of the first dose of captopril BP fell from 171/107 to a maximum low of 142/92 mm Hg (p less than 0.001), and after 4 to 8 days to treatment BP averaged 145/94 mm Hg (p less than 0.001). The magnitude of BP drop induced by captopril was significantly correlated to baseline plasma renin activity (PRA) both during the acute phase (r = -0.38, p less than 0.01) and after the 4 to 8-day interval (r = -0.33, p less than 0.01). Because of considerable scatter in individual data, renin profiling was not precisely predictive of the immediate or delayed BP response of separate patients. However, the BP levels achieved following the initial dose of captopril were closely correlated to BP measured after 4 to 8 days of therapy, and appeared to have greater predictive value than control PRA of the long-term efficacy of chronic captopril therapy despite marked BP changes occurring in some patients during the intermediate period. Because of these intermediate BP changes, addition of a diuretic to enhance antihypertensive effectiveness of angiotensin blockade should be restrained for several days after initiation of captopril therapy.

Surveillance, health promotion and control of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region - Medical attention in the Brazilian Amazon Region: a proposal

We refer to Oswaldo Cruz’s reports dating from 1913 about the necessities of a healthcare system for the Brazilian Amazon Region and about the journey of Carlos Chagas to 27 locations in this region and the measures that would need to be adopted. We discuss the risks of endemicity of Chagas disease in the Amazon Region. We recommend that epidemiological surveillance of Chagas disease in the Brazilian Amazon Region and Pan-Amazon region should be implemented through continuous monitoring of the human population that lives in the area, their housing, the environment and the presence of triatomines. The monitoring should be performed with periodic seroepidemiological surveys, semi-annual visits to homes by health agents and the training of malaria microscopists and healthcare technicians to identify Trypanosoma cruzi from patients’ samples and T. cruzi infection rates among the triatomines caught. We recommend health promotion and control of Chagas disease through public health policies, especially through sanitary education regarding the risk factors for Chagas disease. Finally, we propose a healthcare system through base hospitals, intermediate-level units in the areas of the Brazilian Amazon Region and air transportation, considering the distances to be covered for medical care.

Modelling scenarios of diffusion and control of pandemic influenza, italy

En aquest article es resumeixen els resultats publicats en un informe de l' ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità) del desembre de 2006, sobre un model matemàtic desenvolupat per un grup de treball que inclou a investigadors de les Universitats de Trento, Pisa i Roma, i els Instituts Nacionals de Salut (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, ISS), per avaluar i mesurar l'impacte de la transmissió i el control de la pandèmia de grip

Tapia's syndrome: pathogenetic mechanisms, diagnostic management, and proper treatment: a case series.

BACKGROUND Tapia's syndrome is an uncommon disease described in 1904 by Antonio Garcia Tapia, a Spanish otolaryngologist. It is characterized by concomitant paralysis of the hypoglossal (XIIth) and pneumogastric (Xth) nerves. Only 69 cases have been described in the literature. Typically, the reported patients presented with a history of orotracheal intubation. Common symptoms are dysphonia, tongue deviation toward the affected side, lingual motility disturbance, and swallowing difficulty. CASE PRESENTATION In the report, we describe three cases of Tapia's syndrome in three Caucasian patients who underwent surgery with general anesthesia. Two of these patients underwent neck abscess drainage, and the third had an open reduction of a shoulder fracture. The clinical symptoms of Tapia's syndrome appeared after extubation. All three of our patients recovered their lost function at 3 months after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS We underline the importance of performing airway endoscopy and a specific program of swallowing rehabilitation for the proper management of Tapia's syndrome.

Generalized food-deceptive orchid species flower earlier and occur at lower altitudes than rewarding ones

Aims Food-deceptive pollination, in which plants do not offer any food reward to their pollinators, is common within the Orchidaceae. As food-deceptive orchids are poorer competitors for pollinator visitation than rewarding orchids, their occurrence in a given habitat may be more constrained than that of rewarding orchids. In particular, the success of deceptive orchids strongly relies on several biotic factors such as interactions with co-flowering rewarding species and pollinators, which may vary with altitude and over time. Our study compares generalized food-deceptive (i.e. excluding sexually deceptive) and rewarding orchids to test whether (i) deceptive orchids flower earlier compared to their rewarding counterparts and whether (ii) the relative occurrence of deceptive orchids decreases with increasing altitude. Methods To compare the flowering phenology of rewarding and deceptive orchids, we analysed data compiled from the literature at the species level over the occidental Palaearctic area. Since flowering phenology can be constrained by the latitudinal distribution of the species and by their phylogenetic relationships, we accounted for these factors in our analysis. To compare the altitudinal distribution of rewarding and deceptive orchids, we used field observations made over the entire Swiss territory and over two Swiss mountain ranges. Important Findings We found that deceptive orchid species start flowering earlier than rewarding orchids do, which is in accordance with the hypotheses of exploitation of naive pollinators and/or avoidance of competition with rewarding co-occurring species. Also, the relative frequency of deceptive orchids decreases with altitude, suggesting that deception may be less profitable at high compared to low altitude.

1999-2009 trends in prevalence, unawareness, treatment and control of hypertension in Geneva, Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: There are no time trends in prevalence, unawareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in Switzerland. The objective of this study was to analyze these trends and to determine the associated factors. METHODS/FINDINGS: Population-based study conducted in the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland, between 1999 and 2009. Blood pressure was measured thrice using a standard protocol. Hypertension was defined as mean systolic or diastolic blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg or self-reported hypertension or anti-hypertensive medication. Unawareness, untreated and uncontrolled hypertension was determined by questionnaires/blood pressure measurements. Yearly age-standardized prevalences and adjusted associations for the 1999-2003 and 2004-2009 survey periods were reported. The 10-year survey included 9,215 participants aged 35 to 74 years. Hypertension remained stable (34.4%). Hypertension unawareness decreased from 35.9% to 17.7% (P<0.001). The decrease in hypertension unawareness was not paralleled by a concomitant absolute increase in hypertension treatment, which remained low (38.2%). A larger proportion of all hypertensive participants were aware but not treated in 2004-2009 (43.7%) compared to 1999-2003 (33.1%). Uncontrolled hypertension improved from 62.2% to 40.6% between 1999 and 2009 (P = 0.02). In 1999-2003 period, factors associated with hypertension unawareness were current smoking (OR = 1.27, 95%CI, 1.02-1.59), male gender (OR = 1.56, 1.27-1.92), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.31, 1.20-1.44), and older age (OR 65-74yrs vs 35-49yrs  = 1.56, 1.21-2.02). In 1999-2003 and 2004-2009, obesity and diabetes were negatively associated with hypertension unawareness, high education was associated with untreated hypertension (OR = 1.45, 1.12-1.88 and 1.42, 1.02-1.99, respectively), and male gender with uncontrolled hypertension (OR = 1.49, 1.03-2.17 and 1.65, 1.08-2.50, respectively). Sedentarity was associated with higher risk of hypertension and uncontrolled hypertension in 1999-2003. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension prevalence remained stable since 1999 in the canton of Geneva. Although hypertension unawareness substantially decreased, more than half of hypertensive subjects still remained untreated or uncontrolled in 2004-2009. This study identified determinants that should guide interventions aimed at improving hypertension treatment and control.

Tillage Management and Soil Organic Matter, 2005

Tillage systems play a significant role in agricultural production throughout Iowa and the Midwest. It has been well documented that increased tillage intensities can reduce soil organic matter in the topsoil due to increased microbial activity and carbon (C ) oxidation. The potential loss of soil organic matter due to tillage operations is much higher for high organic matter soils than low organic matter soils. Tillage effects on soil organic matter can be magnified through soil erosion and loss of soil productivity. Soil organic matter is a natural reservoir for nutrients, buffers against soil erosion, and improves the soil environment to sustain soil productivity. Maintaining soil productivity requires an agriculture management system that maintains or improves soil organic matter content. Combining cropping systems and conservation tillage practices, such as no-tillage, strip-tillage, or ridge-tillage, are proven to be very effective in improving soil organic matter and soil quality.

Invasive lobular breast cancer and its variants: How special are they for systemic therapy decisions?

The WHO classification of breast tumors distinguishes, besides invasive breast cancer 'of no special type' (former invasive ductal carcinoma, representing 60-70% of all breast cancers), 30 special types, of which invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is the most common (5-15%). We review the literature on (i) the specificity and heterogeneity of ILC biology as documented by various analytical techniques, including the results of molecular testing for risk of recurrence; (ii) the impact of lobular histology on prediction of prognosis and effect of systemic therapies in patients. Though it is generally admitted that ILC has a better prognosis than IDC, is endocrine responsive, and responds poorly to chemotherapy, currently available data do not unanimously support these assumptions. This review demonstrates some lack of specific data and a need for improving clinical research design to allow oncologists to make informed systemic therapy decisions in patients with ILC. Importantly, future studies should compare various endpoints in ILC breast cancer patients among the group of hormonosensitive breast cancer.

Trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Republic of Seychelles (African region) between 1989 and 2013

Objective: We assessed the awareness, treatment and control of hypertension in the Seychelles between 1989 and 2013. In the Seychelles, heath care is free to all inhabitants within a national health system, inclusive all hypertension medications. Design and method: Four surveys were conducted in 1989, 1994, 2004 and 2013 (Seychelles Heart Studies I, II, III and IV) in random samples of the population aged 25-64 (N >1000 and participation rate >75% in each sur acceptance of the program, though no objective index could be calculated. In total, 15% of device measurements were above high normal values and would correspond to either newly diagnosed HNT (second measurement required) or to poorly controlled known HTN. It should be stressed that 53 women without HTN who completed the questionnaire had abnormal BP values, including the 29 women who also contacted the research team. It could be speculated that approximately 2% of women would be first diagnosed with HTN following the completion of the initial phase of the screening program. Conclusions: Hypertension screening in the hair salon setting was proved to be conveniently applicable and well accepted both by owners and by customers and could lead to the new diagnosis of hypertension for 2% of the female clients. Further research is warranted to assess the effectiveness of the program.