Contributing understanding of mitigation options for phosphorus and sediment to a review of the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures

Experiences from the Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment (MOPS) projects, which aim to determine the effectiveness of measures to reduce pollutant loading from agricultural land to surface waters, have been used to contribute to the findings of a recent paper (Kay et al., 2009, Agricultural Systems, 99, 67–75), which reviewed the efficacy of contemporary agricultural stewardship measures for ameliorating the water pollution problems of key concern to the UK water industry. MOPS1 is a recently completed 3-year research project on three different soil types in the UK, which focused on mitigation options for winter cereals. MOPS1 demonstrated that tramlines can be the major pathway for sediment and nutrient transfer from arable hillslopes, and that although minimum tillage, crop residue incorporation, contour cultivation, and beetle banks also have potential to be cost-effective mitigation options, tramline management is the one of the most promising treatments for mitigating diffuse pollution losses, as it was able to reduce sediment and nutrient losses by 72–99% in four out of five site years trialled. Using information from the MOPS projects, this paper builds on the findings of Kay et al. to provide an updated picture of the evidence available and the immediate needs for research in this area.

The use of cursor measures for motion-impaired computer users

“Point and click” interactions remain one of the key features of graphical user interfaces (GUIs). People with motion-impairments, however, can often have difficulty with accurate control of standard pointing devices. This paper discusses work that aims to reveal the nature of these difficulties through analyses that consider the cursor’s path of movement. A range of cursor measures was applied, and a number of them were found to be significant in capturing the differences between able-bodied users and motion-impaired users, as well as the differences between a haptic force feedback condition and a control condition. The cursor measures found in the literature, however, do not make up a comprehensive list, but provide a starting point for analysing cursor movements more completely. Six new cursor characteristics for motion-impaired users are introduced to capture aspects of cursor movement different from those already proposed.

Using cursor measures to determine appropriate computer input assistance for motion-impaired users

People with motion-impairments can often have difficulty with accurate control of standard pointing devices for computer input. The nature of the difficulties may vary, so to be most effective, methods of assisting cursor control must be suited to each user's needs. The work presented here involves a study of cursor trajectories as a means of assessing the requirements of motion-impaired computer users. A new cursor characteristic is proposed that attempts to capture difficulties with moving the cursor in a smooth trajectory. A study was conducted to see if haptic tunnels could improve performance in "point and click" tasks. Results indicate that the tunnels reduced times to target for those users identified by the new characteristic as having the most difficulty moving in a smooth trajectory. This suggests that cursor characteristics have potential applications in performing assessments of a user's cursor control capabilities which can then be used to determine appropriate methods of assistance.

A search for invariant relative satellite motion

This report presents the canonical Hamiltonian formulation of relative satellite motion. The unperturbed Hamiltonian model is shown to be equivalent to the well known Hill-Clohessy-Wilshire (HCW) linear formulation. The in°uence of perturbations of the nonlinear Gravitational potential and the oblateness of the Earth; J2 perturbations are also modelled within the Hamiltonian formulation. The modelling incorporates eccentricity of the reference orbit. The corresponding Hamiltonian vector ¯elds are computed and implemented in Simulink. A numerical method is presented aimed at locating periodic or quasi-periodic relative satellite motion. The numerical method outlined in this paper is applied to the Hamiltonian system. Although the orbits considered here are weakly unstable at best, in the case of eccentricity only, the method ¯nds exact periodic orbits. When other perturbations such as nonlinear gravitational terms are added, drift is signicantly reduced and in the case of the J2 perturbation with and without the nonlinear gravitational potential term, bounded quasi-periodic solutions are found. Advantages of using Newton's method to search for periodic or quasi-periodic relative satellite motion include simplicity of implementation, repeatability of solutions due to its non-random nature, and fast convergence. Given that the use of bounded or drifting trajectories as control references carries practical di±culties over long-term missions, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to the quasi-periodic or slowly drifting trajectories to help provide a closed reference trajectory for the implementation of closed loop control. In order to evaluate the e®ect of the quality of the model used to generate the periodic reference trajectory, a study involving closed loop control of a simulated master/follower formation was performed. 2 The results of the closed loop control study indicate that the quality of the model employed for generating the reference trajectory used for control purposes has an important in°uence on the resulting amount of fuel required to track the reference trajectory. The model used to generate LQR controller gains also has an e®ect on the e±ciency of the controller.

Stochastic perturbations to dynamical systems: a response theory approach

Using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory, we study how the invariant measure of an Axiom A dynamical system changes as a result of adding noise, and describe how the stochastic perturbation can be used to explore the properties of the underlying deterministic dynamics. We first find the expression for the change in the expectation value of a general observable when a white noise forcing is introduced in the system, both in the additive and in the multiplicative case. We also show that the difference between the expectation value of the power spectrum of an observable in the stochastically perturbed case and of the same observable in the unperturbed case is equal to the variance of the noise times the square of the modulus of the linear susceptibility describing the frequency-dependent response of the system to perturbations with the same spatial patterns as the considered stochastic forcing. This provides a conceptual bridge between the change in the fluctuation properties of the system due to the presence of noise and the response of the unperturbed system to deterministic forcings. Using Kramers-Kronig theory, it is then possible to derive the real and imaginary part of the susceptibility and thus deduce the Green function of the system for any desired observable. We then extend our results to rather general patterns of random forcing, from the case of several white noise forcings, to noise terms with memory, up to the case of a space-time random field. Explicit formulas are provided for each relevant case analysed. As a general result, we find, using an argument of positive-definiteness, that the power spectrum of the stochastically perturbed system is larger at all frequencies than the power spectrum of the unperturbed system. We provide an example of application of our results by considering the spatially extended chaotic Lorenz 96 model. These results clarify the property of stochastic stability of SRB measures in Axiom A flows, provide tools for analysing stochastic parameterisations and related closure ansatz to be implemented in modelling studies, and introduce new ways to study the response of a system to external perturbations. Taking into account the chaotic hypothesis, we expect that our results have practical relevance for a more general class of system than those belonging to Axiom A.

Spectrally invariant approximation within atmospheric radiative transfer

Certain algebraic combinations of single scattering albedo and solar radiation reflected from, or transmitted through, vegetation canopies do not vary with wavelength. These ‘‘spectrally invariant relationships’’ are the consequence of wavelength independence of the extinction coefficient and scattering phase function in veg- etation. In general, this wavelength independence does not hold in the atmosphere, but in cloud-dominated atmospheres the total extinction and total scattering phase function vary only weakly with wavelength. This paper identifies the atmospheric conditions under which the spectrally invariant approximation can accu- rately describe the extinction and scattering properties of cloudy atmospheres. The validity of the as- sumptions and the accuracy of the approximation are tested with 1D radiative transfer calculations using publicly available radiative transfer models: Discrete Ordinate Radiative Transfer (DISORT) and Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART). It is shown for cloudy atmospheres with cloud optical depth above 3, and for spectral intervals that exclude strong water vapor absorption, that the spectrally invariant relationships found in vegetation canopy radiative transfer are valid to better than 5%. The physics behind this phenomenon, its mathematical basis, and possible applications to remote sensing and climate are discussed.

Measures of observation impact in non-Gaussian data assimilation

ABSTRACT Non-Gaussian/non-linear data assimilation is becoming an increasingly important area of research in the Geosciences as the resolution and non-linearity of models are increased and more and more non-linear observation operators are being used. In this study, we look at the effect of relaxing the assumption of a Gaussian prior on the impact of observations within the data assimilation system. Three different measures of observation impact are studied: the sensitivity of the posterior mean to the observations, mutual information and relative entropy. The sensitivity of the posterior mean is derived analytically when the prior is modelled by a simplified Gaussian mixture and the observation errors are Gaussian. It is found that the sensitivity is a strong function of the value of the observation and proportional to the posterior variance. Similarly, relative entropy is found to be a strong function of the value of the observation. However, the errors in estimating these two measures using a Gaussian approximation to the prior can differ significantly. This hampers conclusions about the effect of the non-Gaussian prior on observation impact. Mutual information does not depend on the value of the observation and is seen to be close to its Gaussian approximation. These findings are illustrated with the particle filter applied to the Lorenz ’63 system. This article is concluded with a discussion of the appropriateness of these measures of observation impact for different situations.

Measuring lexical diversity among L2 learners of French: an exploration of the validity of D, MTLD and HD-D as measures of language ability

In this study two new measures of lexical diversity are tested for the first time on French. The usefulness of these measures, MTLD (McCarthy and Jarvis (2010 and this volume) ) and HD-D (McCarthy and Jarvis 2007), in predicting different aspects of language proficiency is assessed and compared with D (Malvern and Richards 1997; Malvern, Richards, Chipere and Durán 2004) and Maas (1972) in analyses of stories told by two groups of learners (n=41) of two different proficiency levels and one group of native speakers of French (n=23). The importance of careful lemmatization in studies of lexical diversity which involve highly inflected languages is also demonstrated. The paper shows that the measures of lexical diversity under study are valid proxies for language ability in that they explain up to 62 percent of the variance in French C-test scores, and up to 33 percent of the variance in a measure of complexity. The paper also provides evidence that dependence on segment size continues to be a problem for the measures of lexical diversity discussed in this paper. The paper concludes that limiting the range of text lengths or even keeping text length constant is the safest option in analysing lexical diversity.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.

A note on an integration by parts formula for the generators of uniform translations on configuration space

An integration by parts formula is derived for the first order differential operator corresponding to the action of translations on the space of locally finite simple configurations of infinitely many points on Rd. As reference measures, tempered grand canonical Gibbs measures are considered corresponding to a non-constant non-smooth intensity (one-body potential) and translation invariant potentials fulfilling the usual conditions. It is proven that such Gibbs measures fulfill the intuitive integration by parts formula if and only if the action of the translation is not broken for this particular measure. The latter is automatically fulfilled in the high temperature and low intensity regime.

Evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications: an approach for screening unfamiliar performance measures

Many different performance measures have been developed to evaluate field predictions in meteorology. However, a researcher or practitioner encountering a new or unfamiliar measure may have difficulty in interpreting its results, which may lead to them avoiding new measures and relying on those that are familiar. In the context of evaluating forecasts of extreme events for hydrological applications, this article aims to promote the use of a range of performance measures. Some of the types of performance measures that are introduced in order to demonstrate a six-step approach to tackle a new measure. Using the example of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble precipitation predictions for the Danube floods of July and August 2002, to show how to use new performance measures with this approach and the way to choose between different performance measures based on their suitability for the task at hand is shown. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Solar ultraviolet-B radiation and vitamin D: a cross-sectional population-based study using data from the 2007 to 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey

Background: Exposure to solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is a major source of vitamin D3. Chemistry climate models project decreases in ground-level solar erythemal UV over the current century. It is unclear what impact this will have on vitamin D status at the population level. The purpose of this study was to measure the association between ground-level solar UV-B and serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) using a secondary analysis of the 2007 to 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS). Methods: Blood samples collected from individuals aged 12 to 79 years sampled across Canada were analyzed for 25(OH)D (n=4,398). Solar UV-B irradiance was calculated for the 15 CHMS collection sites using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Radiation Model. Multivariable linear regression was used to evaluate the association between 25(OH)D and solar UV-B adjusted for other predictors and to explore effect modification. Results: Cumulative solar UV-B irradiance averaged over 91 days (91-day UV-B) prior to blood draw correlated significantly with 25(OH)D. Independent of other predictors, a 1 kJ/m 2 increase in 91-day UV-B was associated with a significant 0.5 nmol/L (95% CI 0.3-0.8) increase in mean 25(OH)D (P =0.0001). The relationship was stronger among younger individuals and those spending more time outdoors. Based on current projections of decreases in ground-level solar UV-B, we predict less than a 1 nmol/L decrease in mean 25(OH)D for the population. Conclusions: In Canada, cumulative exposure to ambient solar UV-B has a small but significant association with 25(OH)D concentrations. Public health messages to improve vitamin D status should target safe sun exposure with sunscreen use, and also enhanced dietary and supplemental intake and maintenance of a healthy body weight.