Use of a predictive model for food insecurity estimates in Brazil

In 2004 the National Household Survey (Pesquisa Nacional par Amostras de Domicilios - PNAD) estimated the prevalence of food and nutrition insecurity in Brazil. However, PNAD data cannot be disaggregated at the municipal level. The objective of this study was to build a statistical model to predict severe food insecurity for Brazilian municipalities based on the PNAD dataset. Exclusion criteria were: incomplete food security data (19.30%); informants younger than 18 years old (0.07%); collective households (0.05%); households headed by indigenous persons (0.19%). The modeling was carried out in three stages, beginning with the selection of variables related to food insecurity using univariate logistic regression. The variables chosen to construct the municipal estimates were selected from those included in PNAD as well as the 2000 Census. Multivariate logistic regression was then initiated, removing the non-significant variables with odds ratios adjusted by multiple logistic regression. The Wald Test was applied to check the significance of the coefficients in the logistic equation. The final model included the variables: per capita income; years of schooling; race and gender of the household head; urban or rural residence; access to public water supply; presence of children; total number of household inhabitants and state of residence. The adequacy of the model was tested using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p=0.561) and ROC curve (area=0.823). Tests indicated that the model has strong predictive power and can be used to determine household food insecurity in Brazilian municipalities, suggesting that similar predictive models may be useful tools in other Latin American countries.

MLCMS actual use, perceived use, and experiences of use

Mobile learning involves use of mobile devices to participate in learning activities. Most elearning activities are available to participants through learning systems such as learning content management systems (LCMS). Due to certain challenges, LCMS are not equally accessible on all mobile devices. This study investigates actual use, perceived usefulness and user experiences of LCMS use on mobile phones at Makerere University in Uganda. The study identifies challenges pertaining to use and discusses how to improve LCMS use on mobile phones. Such solutions are a cornerstone in enabling and improving mobile learning. Data was collected by means of focus group discussions, an online survey designed based on the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), and LCMS log files of user activities. Data was collected from two courses where Moodle was used as a learning platform. The results indicate positive attitudes towards use of LCMS on phones but also huge challenges whichare content related and technical in nature.

Future cenario planning in Brazilian logistics and transportation sector

Nas últimas décadas o setor de logística passou por grandes transformações pelo mundo. Assim, a eficiência do sistema logístico é importante para o crescimento econômico, a diversificação, redução dos custos operacionais e da pobreza. Segundo o Banco Mundial, o Brasil tornou-se uma das maiores economias do mundo, mas os custos logísticos elevados colocam em risco esse crescimento. Estes custos são em grande parte o resultado de diferenças em infraestrutura de cada região, juntamente com os encargos do setor rodoviário, que corresponde por 60% do total do transporte de carga do país. Entretanto, a logística brasileira está às portas de uma nova revolução, em práticas de negócios e eficiência, e também na qualidade e disponibilidade da infraestrutura de transportes e comunicações, e novos projetos e práticas para superar a situação. O objetivo deste estudo não é analisar o presente e as atuais tendências de logística do Brasil e do setor de transporte, mas sim modelar possíveis cenários futuros para os próximos anos. Em outras palavras, este trabalho mostra diferentes possibilidades de como o setor de logística e transporte poderá ser no futuro. Para isso, este trabalho irá utilizar a metodologia de cenários prospectivos e entrevistas com especialistas relacionados da área.

The effect of the land use on phytoplankton assemblages of a Cerrado stream (Brazil)

OBJETIVO: Nosso objetivo foi investigar se o uso do solo do ambiente terrestre adjacente influencia a estrutura das assembleias fitoplanctônicas (composição, riqueza, diversidade e abundância) e biomassa (clorofila-a) em um riacho de Cerrado durante diferentes períodos do ano. MÉTODOS: Os trabalhos de campo foram realizados trimestralmente durante dois anos. RESULTADOS: As variáveis físico-químicas que melhor indicaram as diferenças nas condições da água foram condutividade, oxigênio dissolvido e transparência. Também houve um notável aumento na concentração de nitrogênio, fósforo e material em suspensão na água durante o verão devido aos efeitos da pluviosidade. As assembleias fitoplanctônicas foram compostas por 64 espécies. Cryptophyceae foi o grupo mais abundante, seguido por Bacillariophyceae. Para ambos os anos, a riqueza e a diversidade foram maiores durante a primavera e no outono, enquanto que a abundância do fitoplâncton e a concentração de clorofila-a foram mais elevados durante o outono e verão. A análise de agrupamento e a analise de correspondência canônica mostraram que a sazonalidade e o uso do solo são fatores importantes na estruturação das assembleias ao longo do ano. As alterações nas assembleias fitoplanctônicas ocorreram provavelmente em função da variação na intensidade e freqüência da mistura da água e da entrada de nutrientes oriundo do sistema terrestre adjacente para o aquático. CONCLUSÃO: A estrutura das assembleias fitoplanctônicas mostrou ser altamente influenciada pelo uso do solo, corroborando com a hipótese inicial do trabalho.

Analysis of tectonic-controlled fluvial morphology and sedimentary processes of the western Amazon Basin: an approach using satellite images and digital elevation model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Soil loss risk and habitat quality in streams of a meso-scale river basin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A study of habitat fragmentation in Southeastern Brazil using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS)

The purpose of this work was to study fragmentation of forest formations (mesophytic forest, riparian woodland and savannah vegetation (cerrado)) in a 15,774-ha study area located in the Municipal District of Botucatu in Southeastern Brazil (São Paulo State). A land use and land cover map was made from a color composition of a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) image. The edge effect caused by habitat fragmentation was assessed by overlaying, on a geographic information system (GIS), the land use and land cover data with the spectral ratio. The degree of habitat fragmentation was analyzed by deriving: 1. mean patch area and perimeter; 2. patch number and density; 3. perimeter-area ratio, fractal dimension (D), and shape diversity index (SI); and 4. distance between patches and dispersion index (R). In addition, the following relationships were modeled: 1. distribution of natural vegetation patch sizes; 2. perimeter-area relationship and the number and area of natural vegetation patches; 3. edge effect caused by habitat fragmentation, the values of R indicated that savannah patches (R = 0.86) were aggregated while patches of natural vegetation as a whole (R = 1.02) were randomly dispersed in the landscape. There was a high frequency of small patches in the landscape whereas large patches were rare. In the perimeter-area relationship, there was no sign of scale distinction in the patch shapes, In the patch number-landscape area relationship, D, though apparently scale-dependent, tends to be constant as area increases. This phenomenon was correlated with the tendency to reach a constant density as the working scale was increased, on the edge effect analysis, the edge-center distance was properly estimated by a model in which the edge-center distance was considered a function of the to;al patch area and the SI. (C) 1997 Elsevier B.V. B.V.

Antenatal corticosteroid use and clinical evolution of preterm newborn infants

Objectives: To describe the use of antenatal corticosteroid and clinical evolution of preterm babies. Methods: An observational prospective cohort study was carried out. All 463 pregnant women and their 514 newborn babies with gestational age ranging from 23 to 34 weeks, born at the Brazilian Neonatal Research Network units, were evaluated from August 1 to December 31, 2001. The data were obtained through maternal interview, analysis of medical records, and follow-up of the newborn infants. Data analysis was performed with the use of chi-square, t Student, Mann-Whitney, and ANOVA tests and multiple logistic regression, with level of significance set at 5%. Results: Treatment was directly associated with the number of prenatal visits, with maternal hypertension and with the antenatal use of tocolytic agents. Babies from treated pregnant women presented better Apgar scores at the 1st and 5th minute, reduced need for intervention in the delivery room and lower SNAPPE II. They were born with higher birth weight, longer gestational age and needed less surfactant use, ventilation, and oxygenation time. After multiple logistic regression, the use of antenatal corticosteroid independently improved birth conditions, decreased ventilation time, being related to increased occurrence of neonatal sepsis. Conclusions: The use of corticosteroid was associated with better prenatal care and birth conditions, better preterm evolution but higher risk of infection. Copyright © 2004 by Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria.

Evolutionary heuristic to determine future land use

In the spatial electric load forecasting, the future land use determination is one of the most important tasks, and one of the most difficult, because of the stochastic nature of the city growth. This paper proposes a fast and efficient algorithm to find out the future land use for the vacant land in the utility service area, using ideas from knowledge extraction and evolutionary algorithms. The methodology was implemented into a full simulation software for spatial electric load forecasting, showing a high rate of success when the results are compared to information gathered from specialists. The importance of this methodology lies in the reduced set of data needed to perform the task and the simplicity for implementation, which is a great plus for most of the electric utilities without specialized tools for this planning activity. © 2008 IEEE.

Land parceling and neighborhood impacts in Brazil

The proposal and implementation of parceling real estate into smaller lots in Brazil is done according to legal and technical formalities. However, these instruments have proved inefficient in reducing the resulting environmental impacts. The ambiguities of the federal, state and municipal laws and regulations have limited the effectiveness of the actions of urban administrators. Law 10257/2001 emerged as an alternative to overcome these difficulties, proposing the adoption of neighborhood impact studies as an instrument to evaluate new proposals of urban occupation for purposes of environmental licensing. Thus, the purpose of this law is to provide the foundations for municipal public authorities to establish criteria for the assessment, mitigation and compensation of impacts resulting from new occupations. However, the very vagueness of the generic nature of this federal law and its incorrect application in the municipal sphere has posed the greatest obstacles to the good use of this instrument of urban environmental management. These deficiencies are classified herein in the categories of philosophical, technical and operational problems. The problems of a philosophical nature lead to technical difficulties, which in turn trigger operational deficiencies. This article discusses these deficiencies and points out ways to reduce them. © 2009 Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering (JUEE). All rights reserved.

Environmental diagnosis in areas with different use and occupation using the perception of diverse biological activity

In Brazil, the degradation of soil and landscape by urban and agricultural frontiers expansion leads to the need for comprehensive studies and consider the diverse biological activities generated from different interventions in the landscape, becoming an instrument for assessing the impacts and the decision for its environmental management. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different forms of occupation of the landscape, considering ecological elements and their interactions. The work was carried out on the Instituto Agronômico in the county of Jundiai, in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The area under study has been subjected to different use and occupancy for a period of about 40 years. During this period the landscape has been transformed, with the current scenario can be classified as a degraded area mining; grassy area; Araucaria forest and pasture. These areas were evaluated by means of a transect, from which ten sampling sites were selected for the description of diverse biological activities, which included: evaluation and description of ground cover, identifying the presence of fungus and insect species. Furthermore, we evaluated in these points the pH, fertility and porosity of the topsoil (0-0.10 m). The results showed a variation of the elements analyzed and a relationship between the use and occupation of land in the different scenarios of the current landscape. The biological activity was more diverse in the Araucaria forest, reflected by the abundance of litter, higher content of organic matter and soil nutrients, demonstrating the effectiveness of the technique for assessing the level of degradation of the landscape used, which is expeditious and inexpensive.

Application of landsat images for quantifying the energy balance under conditions of land use changes in the semi-arid region of Brazil

In the Nilo Coelho irrigation scheme, Brazil, the natural vegetation has been replaced by irrigated agriculture, bringing importance for the quantification of the effects on the energy exchanges between the mixed vegetated surfaces and the lower atmosphere. Landsat satellite images and agro-meteorological stations from 1992 to 2011 were used together, for modelling these exchanges. Surface albedo (α0), NDVI and surface temperature (T0) were the basic remote sensing retrieving parameters necessary to calculate the latent heat flux (λE) and the surface resistance to evapotranspiration (rs) on a large scale. The daily net radiation (Rn) was obtained from α0, air temperature (Ta) and short-wave transmissivity (τsw) throughout the slob equation, allowing the quantification of the daily sensible heat flux (H) by residual in the energy balance equation. With a threshold value for rs, it was possible to separate the energy fluxes from crops and natural vegetation. The averaged fractions of Rn partitioned as H and λE, were in average 39 and 67%, respectively. It was observed an increase of the energy used for the evapotranspiration process inside irrigated areas from 51% in 1992 to 80% in 2011, with the ratio λE/Rn presenting an increase of 3 % per year. The tools and models applied in the current research, can subsidize the monitoring of the coupled climate and land use changes effects in irrigation perimeters, being valuable when aiming the sustainability of the irrigated agriculture in the future, avoiding conflicts among different water users. © 2012 SPIE.

The integrated lot sizing and cutting stock problem in a furniture factory

This work studies the integrated lot sizing and cutting stock problem, where the goal is to capture the dependency that exists between two important decisions in the production process, in order to economize raw materials and also reduce production and inventory costs. The integrated lot sizing and cutting stock problem is studied in a small furniture factory that produces wardrobes, dressing tables and cupboards and the lot sizing and cutting stock decisions are taken by the production manager. A column-generation technique is used to solve a linear relaxation of the proposed model. The computational results, using real data from the factory, show that it is possible to reduce total inventory and raw material costs when integrated planning is used. © 2013 IFAC.

Agriculture, rural development, land, drought and desertification: obstacles, lessons and challenges for the sustainable development of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.