785 resultados para Idiosyncratic Volatility
Resumo:
This thesis presents a study of the 112 narratives collected from the Corpus Iuris Hibernici. The selection of narratives is based on criteria informed by modern narratological theories. The significant presence of narratives in early Irish law tracts appears at odds with the normal conception of law texts as consisting solely of provisions, and therefore needs to be accounted for. Since no systematic study has been conducted of these legal narratives, this thesis serves as an introduction by giving firstly an index of narratives and secondly a categorisation of them in terms of distribution, dates and functions. It then carries out a general analysis of the relationship between legal narratives and early Irish literature, and a selected case study of the relationship between legal narratives and the legal institutions in the context of which the narratives are located. It has become clearer, with the progress of argument, that the use of narratives was an integral part of legal writing in medieval Ireland; and the narratives, though having many idiosyncratic features of themselves, are profoundly connected with the learned tradition at large. The legal narratives reveal the intellectual background and compositional concerns of medieval Irish jurists, and they formed a crucial part of the effort to accommodate law tracts into the dynamic tradition of senchas. Two appendices are included at the end: one consists of translations of 34 narratives from the index, and the other is a critical edition of one of the narratives discussed in detail, together with translations of some relevant passages.
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This paper looks into economic insights offerred by considerations of two important financial markets in Vietnam, gold and USD. In general, the paper focuses on time series properties, mainly returns at different frequencies, and test the weak-form efficient market hypothesis. All the test rejects the efficiency of both gold and foreign exchange markets. All time series exhibit strong serial correlations. ARMA-GARCH specifications appear to have performed well with different time series. In all cases the changing volatility phenomenon is strongly supported through empirical data. An additional test is performed on the daily USD return to try to capture the impacts of Asian financial crisis and daily price limits applicable. No substantial impacts of the Asian crisis and the central bank-devised limits are found to influence the risk level of daily USD return.
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This paper is the first major and thorough study on the M&A activities in Vietnam’s emerging market economy, covering almost entirely the M&A history after the launch of Doi Moi. The surge in these activities since mid-2000s by no means incidentally coincides with the jump in FDI and FPI inflows into the nation. M&A industry in Vietnam has its socio-cultural traits that could help explain economic happenings, with anomalies and transitional characteristics, far better than even the most complete set of empirical data. Proceeds from sales of existing assets and firms have mainly flowed into the highly speculative industries of securities, banking, non-bank financials, portfolio investments and real estates. The impacts of M&A on Vietnam’s long-term prosperity are, thus, highly questionable. An observable high degree of volatility in the M&A processes would likely blow outthe high ex ante expectations by many speculators, when ex post realizations finally arrive. The effect of the past M&A evolution in Vietnam has been indecisively positive or negative, with significant presence of rent-seeking and likelihood of causing destructive entrepreneurship. From a socio-economic and cultural view, the degree of positive impacts it may result in for domestic entrepreneurship will perhaps be the single most important indicator.
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Empirical modeling of high-frequency currency market data reveals substantial evidence for nonnormality, stochastic volatility, and other nonlinearities. This paper investigates whether an equilibrium monetary model can account for nonlinearities in weekly data. The model incorporates time-nonseparable preferences and a transaction cost technology. Simulated sample paths are generated using Marcet's parameterized expectations procedure. The paper also develops a new method for estimation of structural economic models. The method forces the model to match (under a GMM criterion) the score function of a nonparametric estimate of the conditional density of observed data. The estimation uses weekly U.S.-German currency market data, 1975-90. © 1995.
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We construct a theory to compare vertically integrated firms to networks of manufacturers and suppliers. Vertically integrated firms make their own specialized inputs. In networks, manufacturers procure specialized inputs from suppliers that, in turn, sell to several manufacturers. The analysis shows that networks can yield greater social welfare when manufacturers experience large idiosyncratic demand shocks. Individual firms may also have the incentive to form networks, despite the lack of long-term contracts. The analysis is supported by existing evidence and provides predictions as to the shape of different industries.
Not published, not indexed: issues in generating and finding hospice and palliative care literature.
Resumo:
INTRODUCTION: Accessing new knowledge as the evidence base for hospice and palliative care grows has specific challenges for the discipline. This study aimed to describe conversion rates of palliative and hospice care conference abstracts to journal articles and to highlight that some palliative care literature may not be retrievable because it is not indexed on bibliographic databases. METHODS: Substudy A tracked the journal publication of conference abstracts selected for inclusion in a gray literature database on www.caresearch.com.au . Abstracts were included in the gray literature database following handsearching of proceedings of over 100 Australian conferences likely to have some hospice or palliative care content that were held between 1980 and 1999. Substudy B looked at indexing from first publication until 2001 of three international hospice and palliative care journals in four widely available bibliographic databases through systematic tracing of all original papers in the journals. RESULTS: Substudy A showed that for the 1338 abstracts identified only 15.9% were published (compared to an average in health of 45%). Published abstracts were found in 78 different journals. Multiauthor abstracts and oral presentations had higher rates of conversion. Substudy B demonstrated lag time between first publication and bibliographic indexing. Even after listing, idiosyncratic noninclusions were identified. DISCUSSION: There are limitations to retrieval of all possible literature through electronic searching of bibliographic databases. Encouraging publication in indexed journals of studies presented at conferences, promoting selection of palliative care journals for database indexing, and searching more than one bibliographic database will improve the accessibility of existing and new knowledge in hospice and palliative care.
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We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.
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We discuss a general approach to dynamic sparsity modeling in multivariate time series analysis. Time-varying parameters are linked to latent processes that are thresholded to induce zero values adaptively, providing natural mechanisms for dynamic variable inclusion/selection. We discuss Bayesian model specification, analysis and prediction in dynamic regressions, time-varying vector autoregressions, and multivariate volatility models using latent thresholding. Application to a topical macroeconomic time series problem illustrates some of the benefits of the approach in terms of statistical and economic interpretations as well as improved predictions. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Resumo:
Virtual contemporaries, Sergei Rachmaninoff and Sergei Prokofiev were pianists, steeped in the traditions of Russian pianism; recordings of both pianists-composers playing their own works are available. Although the composers can be perceived as having little in common, in fact both composed in classical forms, both had a strong lyrical sense and both had an unbreakable connection with their Russian heritage. Rachmaninoff was the last great representative of Russian late Romanticism as well as one of the finest pianists of his generation. He cultivated a sweepingly passionate and melodious idiom, with pronounced lyrical quality, expressive breath and structural ingenuity. Prokofiev, on the other hand, tried to push the Russian Romantic traditions to a point of exacerbation and caricature before experimenting with various kinds of modernism. Stressing simplicity, he helped invent Neo-Classicism. His melodies are essentially tonal with wide skips and sweeping long lines. Harmonically, he used triadic harmony full of dissonances, strange inversions, unusual spacings, and jarring juxtapositions. Writing in classical forms, he incorporated rhythmic vitality and lyrical elements into his music. I have chosen to perform five works by each composer, written in a variety of genres, including the sonata, the toccata, variations, the concerto. I also have divided the pieces into three recital programs to show the idiosyncratic characteristics of the composers. I have endeavored to select pieces based on the technical and artistic challenges that they offer, thereby allowing me to grow as a pianist and an artist. My goal is to gain a thorough understanding of not only the pieces but also the musical styles of both composers.
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Quantity-based regulation with banking allows regulated firms to shift obligations across time in response to periods of unexpectedly high or low marginal costs. Despite its wide prevalence in existing and proposed emission trading programs, banking has received limited attention in past welfare analyses of policy choice under uncertainty. We address this gap with a model of banking behavior that captures two key constraints: uncertainty about the future from the firm's perspective and a limit on negative bank values (e.g. borrowing). We show conditions where banking provisions reduce price volatility and lower expected costs compared to quantity policies without banking. For plausible parameter values related to U.S. climate change policy, we find that bankable quantities produce behavior quite similar to price policies for about two decades and, during this period, improve welfare by about a $1 billion per year over fixed quantities. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
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During the second half of the nineteenth century, a series of remarkable advances in musical composition emerged in the works of such innovative spirits as Franz Liszt, Hector Berlioz and Richard Wagner. Their pioneering works exerted an extraordinary impact on the music of the subsequent generation of composers--of disparate nationalities-who were active at the dawn of the 20th century: Including most notably Claude-Achille Debussy, Gustav Mahler, Richard Strauss, and Alexander Nikolayevich Scriabin. These important musical figures, each one leaving an indelible and formative imprint on late-nineteenth century Romantic style, together launched the modern era in music. Scriabin stands alone as a transcendental visionary: His music, initiated in the fashion of Chopin and Liszt, wanders through the realms of Debussy and Wagner, and, ultimately abandoning late Romantic tradition, unlocks the heretofore unforeseen power of atonality, bitonality, polyrhythms and key-signature free compositions. Arguably, Scriabin's compositions count among the most innovative, idiosyncratic and bewitching of all time. The development of Scriabin's groundbreaking compositional style is best understood by means of his piano works, which comprise the majority of his oeuvre. Beyond the larger works-his twelve sonatas, a concerto and a fantasy-Scriabin's piano explorations are also represented by miniature gems: The mazurkas, impromptus, waltzes, poems, a polonaise, etudes, nocturnes, morceaux and, in particular, the preludes. Scriabin's 90 preludes for piano, arranged in several opus numbers, richly exemplify the striking evolution of his ingenious music, his idiosyncratic philosophy and his provocative personality.
A policy-definition language and prototype implementation library for policy-based autonomic systems
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This paper presents work towards generic policy toolkit support for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be adapted dynamically and automatically. The work is motivated by three needs: the need for longer-term policy-based adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically adapted to continually maintain or improve its effectiveness despite changing environmental conditions; the need to enable non autonomics-expert practitioners to embed self-managing behaviours with low cost and risk; and the need for adaptive policy mechanisms that are easy to deploy into legacy code. A policy definition language is presented; designed to permit powerful expression of self-managing behaviours. The language is very flexible through the use of simple yet expressive syntax and semantics, and facilitates a very diverse policy behaviour space through both hierarchical and recursive uses of language elements. A prototype library implementation of the policy support mechanisms is described. The library reads and writes policies in well-formed XML script. The implementation extends the state of the art in policy-based autonomics through innovations which include support for multiple policy versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta-policies to dynamically select between policy instances and templates. Most significantly, the scheme supports hot-swapping between policy instances. To illustrate the feasibility and generalised applicability of these tools, two dissimilar example deployment scenarios are examined. The first is taken from an exploratory implementation of self-managing parallel processing, and is used to demonstrate the simple and efficient use of the tools. The second example demonstrates more-advanced functionality, in the context of an envisioned multi-policy stock trading scheme which is sensitive to environmental volatility
Resumo:
This paper presents a policy definition language which forms part of a generic policy toolkit for autonomic computing systems in which the policies themselves can be modified dynamically and automatically. Targeted enhancements to the current state of practice include: policy self-adaptation where the policy itself is dynamically modified to match environmental conditions; improved support for non autonomics-expert developers; and facilitating easy deployment of adaptive policies into legacy code. The policy definition language permits powerful expression of self-managing behaviours and facilitates a diverse policy behaviour space. Features include support for multiple versions of a given policy type, multiple configuration templates, and meta policies to dynamically select between policy instances. An example deployment scenario illustrates advanced functionality in the context of a multi policy stock trading system which is sensitive to environmental volatility.
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Financial modelling in the area of option pricing involves the understanding of the correlations between asset and movements of buy/sell in order to reduce risk in investment. Such activities depend on financial analysis tools being available to the trader with which he can make rapid and systematic evaluation of buy/sell contracts. In turn, analysis tools rely on fast numerical algorithms for the solution of financial mathematical models. There are many different financial activities apart from shares buy/sell activities. The main aim of this chapter is to discuss a distributed algorithm for the numerical solution of a European option. Both linear and non-linear cases are considered. The algorithm is based on the concept of the Laplace transform and its numerical inverse. The scalability of the algorithm is examined. Numerical tests are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm for financial analysis. Time dependent functions for volatility and interest rates are also discussed. Applications of the algorithm to non-linear Black-Scholes equation where the volatility and the interest rate are functions of the option value are included. Some qualitative results of the convergence behaviour of the algorithm is examined. This chapter also examines the various computational issues of the Laplace transformation method in terms of distributed computing. The idea of using a two-level temporal mesh in order to achieve distributed computation along the temporal axis is introduced. Finally, the chapter ends with some conclusions.
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Purpose: This paper seeks to investigate the factors influencing the business performance of estate agency in England and Wales. Design/methodology/approach: The paper investigates the effect of housing market, company size and pricing policy on business performance in the estate agency sector in England and Wales. The analysis uses the survey data of Woolwich Cost of Moving Survey (a survey of transactions costs sponsored by the Woolwich/Barclays Bank) from 2003 to 2005 to test the hypothesis that the business performance of estate agency is affected by industry characteristics and firm factors. Findings: The empirical analysis indicates that the business performance of estate agency is subject to market environment volatility such as market uncertainty, housing market liquidity and house price changes. The firm factors such as firm size and the level of agency fee have no explanatory power in explaining business performance. The level of agency fee is positively associated with firm size, market environment and liquidity. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to the data received and is based on a research project on transaction costs designed prior to this analysis. Originality/value: There is little other research that investigates the factors determining the business performance of estate agency, using consecutive data of three years across England and Wales. The findings are useful for practitioners and/or managers to allocate resources and adjust their business strategy to enhance business performance in the estate agency sector.