Austerity and anarchy: Budget cuts and social unrest in Europe, 1919-2008

Does fiscal consolidation lead to social unrest? Using cross-country evidencefor the period 1919 to 2008, we examine the extent to which societies becomeunstable after budget cuts. The results show a clear correlation between fiscalretrenchment and instability. Expenditure cuts are particularly potent infueling protests; tax rises have only small and insignificant effects. We test ifthe relationship simply reflects economic downturns, using a recently-developedIMF dataset on exogenous expenditure shocks, and conclude that this is not thecase. While autocracies and democracies show broadly similar responses to budgetcuts, countries with more constraints on the executive are less likely to seeunrest after austerity measures. Growing media penetration does not strengthenthe effect of cut-backs on the level of unrest. We also find that austerity episodesthat result in unrest lead to quick reversals of fiscal policy.

State capacity and military conflict

In 1500, Europe was composed of hundreds of statelets and principalities, with weak central authority,no monopoly over the legitimate use of violence, and overlapping jurisdictions. By 1800, only ahandful of powerful, centralized nation states remained. We build a model that explains both the emergenceof capable states and growing divergence between European powers. We argue that the impactof war was crucial for state building, and depended on: i) the financial cost of war, and ii) a country sinitial level of domestic political fragmentation. We emphasize the role of the "Military Revolution",which raised the cost of war. Initially, this caused more cohesive states to invest in state capacity, whilemore divided states rationally dropped out of the competition, causing divergence between Europeanstates. As the cost of war escalated further, all states engaged in a "race to the top" towards greater statebuilding.

Spinning welfare: The gains from process innovation in cotton and car production

Economists and economic historians want to know how much better life is today than in the past.Fifty years ago economic historians found surprisingly small gains from 19th century US railroads,while more recently economists have found relatively large gains from electricity, computers and cellphones. In each case the implicit or explicit assumption is that researchers were measuring the valueof a new good to society. In this paper we use the same techniques to find the value to society ofmaking existing goods cheaper. Henry Ford did not invent the car, and the inventors of mechanisedcotton spinning in the industrial revolution invented no new product. But both made existing productsdramatically cheaper, bringing them into the reach of many more consumers. That in turn haspotentially large welfare effects. We find that the consumer surplus of Henry Ford s production linewas around 2% by 1923, 15 years after Ford began to implement the moving assembly line, while themechanisation of cotton spinning was worth around 6% by 1820, 34 years after its initial invention.Both are large: of the same order of magnitude as consumer expenditure on these items, and as largeor larger than the value of the internet to consumers. On the social savings measure traditionally usedby economic historians, these process innovations were worth 15% and 18% respectively, makingthem more important than railroads. Our results remind us that process innovations can be at least asimportant for welfare and productivity as the invention of new products.

Married to intolerance: Attitudes towards intermarriage in Germany, 1900-2006

Marriage is amongst the biggest decisions in life. In general, there is a tendency towards assortative matching people marry others who are relatively similar to themselves. Intermarriage between different social, religious and ethnic groups in most societies is relatively rare (Blossfeld and Timm 2003). Where it occurs, it is associated with more rapid assimilation (Meng and Gregory 2005). The frequency of intermarriage can therefore serve as a useful indicator of tolerant attitudes towards a minority, and of the desire to integrate (Bisin, Topa, and Verdier 2004).In this paper, we analyze under which conditions intermarriage can be used as an indicator of tolerance, and whether such tolerant attitudes persisted in Germany during the last century. We combine information on individual-level attitudes from the German social survey (GESIS) with historical data on marriage patterns.

Continuous electroencephalography in the medical intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVES: To examine predictors and the prognostic value of electrographic seizures (ESZs) and periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in medical intensive care unit (MICU) patients without a primary acute neurologic condition. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: MICU in a university hospital. PATIENTS: A total of 201 consecutive patients admitted to the MICU between July 2004 and January 2007 without known acute neurologic injury and who underwent continuous electroencephalography monitoring (cEEG) for investigation of possible seizures or changes in mental status. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Median time from intensive care unit (ICU) admission to cEEG was 1 day (interquartile range 1-4). The majority of patients (60%) had sepsis as the primary admission diagnosis and 48% were comatose at the time of cEEG. Ten percent (n = 21) of patients had ESZs, 17% (n = 34) had PEDs, 5% (n = 10) had both, and 22% (n = 45) had either ESZs or PEDs. Seizures during cEEG were purely electrographic (no detectable clinical correlate) in the majority (67%) of patients. Patients with sepsis had a higher rate of ESZs or PEDs than those without sepsis (32% vs. 9%, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, sepsis at ICU admission was the only significant predictor of ESZs or PEDs (odds ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval 1.9-12.7, p = 0.002). After controlling for age, coma, and organ dysfunction, the presence of ESZs or PEDs was associated with death or severe disability at hospital discharge (89% with ESZs or PEDs, vs. 39% if not; odds ratio 19.1, 95% confidence interval 6.3-74.6, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study of MICU patients monitored with cEEG, ESZs and PEDs were frequent, predominantly in patients with sepsis. Seizures were mainly nonconvulsive. Both seizures and periodic discharges were associated with poor outcome. Prospective studies are warranted to determine more precisely the frequency and clinical impact of nonconvulsive seizures and periodic discharges, particularly in septic patients.

Aspectos ecológicos da comunidade de Araneae (Arthropoda, Arachnida) em copas da palmeira Attalea phalerata Mart. (Arecaceae) no Pantanal de Poconé, Mato Grosso, Brasil

Seis palmeiras de Attalea phalerata foram amostradas durante a fase aquática (cheia) no Pantanal de Mato Grosso (fevereiro/2001), utilizando-se a metodologia de nebulização de copas "canopy fogging". Este estudo objetivou avaliar a composição, distribuição espacial, guildas comportamentais, biomassa e sazonalidade da comunidade de Araneae em copas dessa palmeira que forma adensamentos monodominantes, típicos nessa região. Um total de 1326 aranhas foram coletadas em 99 m² de área amostral (13,4 + 8,2 indivíduos/m²), representando 20 famílias, sendo Salticidae e Araneidae as mais abundantes. A biomassa total de 704 aranhas em três palmeiras correspondeu a 0.6172 mg de peso seco (0,0123+ 0,04 mg/m²). Dez guildas comportamentais demonstraram a coexistência de diferentes espécies em um mesmo habitat. Representantes de Salticidae, Oonopidae e Ctenidae dominaram entre as caçadoras, e Araneidae e Dictynidae, dentre as tecelãs. A análise de distribuição espacial demonstrou que a maior abundância de aranhas ocorreu na região central da copa, provavelmente devido à quantidade de recursos disponíveis nesse local. A comparação desses resultados com aqueles obtidos durante o período de seca, demonstra diferenças sazonais influenciadas pelo pulso de inundação, principalmente com relação à composição das famílias amostradas entre os períodos de seca e cheia.

Composição da comunidade de Formicidae (Insecta, Hymenoptera) em copas de Attalea phalerata Mart. (Arecaceae), no Pantanal de Poconé, Mato Grosso, Brasil

Três indivíduos da palmeira Attalea phalerata Mart (Arecaceae) foram amostrados durante a fase aquática (cheia) no Pantanal de Mato Grosso (fevereiro/2001) utilizando-se a metodologia de nebulização de copas "canopy fogging". Este estudo objetivou avaliar a diversidade, hábitos alimentares e a distribuição espacial da comunidade de Formicidae em copas dessa palmeira que forma adensamentos monodominantes, típicos nessa região. Cada palmeira foi nebulizada uma única vez e realizadas três coletas subseqüentes. Um total de 966 formigas, pertencentes a 6 subfamílias, 13 tribos e 29 espécies foram amostradas em 49 m² de área amostral (19,7±52,7 indivíduos/m²) representando 3,9% do total de artrópodes obtidos. Myrmicinae foi a subfamília mais representativa, com 6 tribos e 14 espécies, destacando-se Solenopsidini com 5 espécies. Formicinae foi a segunda subfamília mais abundante com 3 tribos e 8 espécies. Pheidole sp. 2 foi dominante na amostragem geral (284 indivíduos; 29,4% da captura total) seguida por Camponotus (Myrmobrachys) crassus (182 individuos; 18,8%) e Crematogaster (Orthocrema) sp. 1 pr. quadriformis (119 individuos; 12,3%). Os índices de diversidade foram consideráveis (H'=2,185; D= 0,835) apesar de demonstrarem baixos valores de equitabilidade (0,649 e 0,248, respectivamente). Este resultado demonstra a heterogeneidade da comunidade de Formicidae associada à copa dessa palmeira. A análise da distribuição espacial desmonstrou que a maior abundância e riqueza de Formicidae ocorrem na região central da copa, próximo ao caule.

Replicative phenotyping adds value to genotypic resistance testing in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected individuals--the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Replicative phenotypic HIV resistance testing (rPRT) uses recombinant infectious virus to measure viral replication in the presence of antiretroviral drugs. Due to its high sensitivity of detection of viral minorities and its dissecting power for complex viral resistance patterns and mixed virus populations rPRT might help to improve HIV resistance diagnostics, particularly for patients with multiple drug failures. The aim was to investigate whether the addition of rPRT to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) compared to GRT alone is beneficial for obtaining a virological response in heavily pre-treated HIV-infected patients. METHODS: Patients with resistance tests between 2002 and 2006 were followed within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We assessed patients' virological success after their antiretroviral therapy was switched following resistance testing. Multilevel logistic regression models with SHCS centre as a random effect were used to investigate the association between the type of resistance test and virological response (HIV-1 RNA <50 copies/mL or ≥1.5 log reduction). RESULTS: Of 1158 individuals with resistance tests 221 with GRT+rPRT and 937 with GRT were eligible for analysis. Overall virological response rates were 85.1% for GRT+rPRT and 81.4% for GRT. In the subgroup of patients with >2 previous failures, the odds ratio (OR) for virological response of GRT+rPRT compared to GRT was 1.45 (95% CI 1.00-2.09). Multivariate analyses indicate a significant improvement with GRT+rPRT compared to GRT alone (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.15). CONCLUSIONS: In heavily pre-treated patients rPRT-based resistance information adds benefit, contributing to a higher rate of treatment success.

Bowling for fascism: Social capital and the rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany, 1919-33

Social capital a dense network of associations facilitating cooperation within a community typically leads to positive political and economic outcomes, as demonstrated by a large literature following Putnam. A growing literature emphasizes the potentially "dark side" of social capital. This paper examines the role of social capital in the downfall of democracy in interwar Germany by analyzing Nazi party entry rates in a cross-section of towns and cities. Before the Nazi Party's triumphs at the ballot box, it built an extensive organizational structure, becoming a mass movement with nearly a million members by early 1933. We show that dense networks of civic associations such as bowling clubs, animal breeder associations, or choirs facilitated the rise of the Nazi Party. The effects are large: Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least one-third faster growth in the strength of the Nazi Party. IV results based on 19th century measures of social capital reinforce our conclusions. In addition, all types of associations veteran associations and non-military clubs, "bridging" and "bonding" associations positively predict NS party entry. These results suggest that social capital in Weimar Germany aided the rise of the Nazi movement that ultimately destroyed Germany's first democracy.

Terrestrial arthropods from tree canopies in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Terrestrial arthropods from tree canopies in the Pantanal of Mato Grosso, Brazil. This study represents a contribution to the knowledge of the diversity of arthropods associated to the canopy of Vochysia divergens Pohl (Vochysiaceae). Three trees individuals were sampled during two seasonal periods in this region: a) by spraying one tree canopy during high water (February); b) by fogging two tree canopies during low water (September/October). The 15,744 arthropods (183.2±38.9 individuals/m²) obtained from all three trees (86 m²) represented 20 taxonomic orders, 87.1% were Insecta, and 12.9% Arachnida. The dominant groups were Hymenoptera (48.5%; 88.9 individuals/m²), mostly Formicidae (44.5%; 81.4 individuals/m²), followed by Coleoptera (14.0%; 25.5 individuals/m²) and Araneae (10.2%; 19.5 individuals/m²), together representing 62.5% of the total catch. Fourteen (70%) of all orders occurred on three trees. Dermaptera, Isoptera, Neuroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera and Trichoptera were collected from only one tree. Of the total, 2,197 adult Coleoptera collected (25.5±11.3 individuals/m²), 99% were assigned to 32 families and 256 morphospecies. Nitidulidae (17.9% of the total catch; 4.6 individuals/m²), Anobiidae (16.7%; 4.3 individuals/m²), Curculionidae (13.2%; 3.4 individuals/m²) and Meloidae (11.4%; 2.9 individuals/m²) dominated. The communitiy of adult Coleoptera on V. divergens indicated a dominance of herbivores (37.8% of the total catch, 127 spp.) and predators (35.2%, 82 spp.), followed by saprophages (16.2%, 32 spp.) and fungivores (10.8%, 15 spp.). The influence of the flood pulse on the community of arboreal arthropods in V. divergens is indicated by the seasonal variation in evaluated groups, causing changes in their structure and composition.

Credit rationing and crowding out during the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from Hoare's Bank, 1702-1862

Crowding-out during the British Industrial Revolution has long been one of the leadingexplanations for slow growth during the Industrial Revolution, but little empirical evidence exists to support it. We argue that examinations of interest rates are fundamentally misguided, and that the eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century private loan market balanced through quantity rationing. Using a unique set of observations on lending volume at a London goldsmith bank, Hoare s, we document the impact of wartime financing on private credit markets. We conclude that there is considerable evidence that government borrowing, especially during wartime, crowded out private credit.

Inflation, political instability and stockmarket volatility in interwar Germany

What determined the volatility of asset prices in Germany between thewars? This paper argues that the influence of political factors has beenoverstated. The majority of events increasing political uncertainty hadlittle or no effect on the value of German assets and the volatility ofreturns on them. Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that islargely responsible for most of the variability in asset returns.

Factor prices and productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution

This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period1770 1860. We use the dual technique and argue that the estimates we derive from factorprices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations. Our results provide further evidence,calculated on the basis of an independent set of sources, that productivity growth duringthe British Industrial Revolution was relatively slow. The Crafts Harley view of theIndustrial Revolution is thus reinforced. Our preferred estimates suggest a modest accelerationafter 1800.

Riding the South Sea bubble

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and nonetheless invested in the stock; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on daily trades, we show that this sophisticated investor was not constrained by institutional factors such as restrictions on short sales or agency problems. Instead, this study demonstrates that predictable investor sentiment can prevent attacks on a bubble; rational investors may only attack when some coordinating event promotes joint action.

Surface swimming behavior of the curculionid Ochetina uniformis Pascoe (Erirhininae, Stenopelmini) and Ludovix fasciatus (Gyllenhal) (Curculioninae, Erodiscini)

The swimming behavior exhibited by specimens of L. fasciatus and O. uniformis was analyzed frame-by-frame with video observation recorded with a digital camera, attached to a stereomicroscope. Adults of O. uniformis, an aquatic insect, swim with all three pairs of legs. During the process of swimming the majority of the abdomen and rostrum remain submerged, part of the fore and hind tibiae remain above the surface, while the mid tibiae remain submerged. The mesothoracic legs, during the power-stroke stage, provide the greatest thrust while the metathoracic legs provide the least forward propulsion. The prothoracic legs, extended forward, help to direct the swimming. The semi-aquatic specie L. fasciatus shows the same swimming style as O. uniformis, that is, with movement of all the three pairs of legs; the mesothoracic legs are responsible for the main propulsion. The insect body remains on the water surface during the process of swimming, while the legs remain submerged. Both species complete a swimming cycle in 0.33 and 0.32 seconds, respectively, with an average speed of 1.38 cm/s and a maximum and minimum swimming duration time of 11.15 and 5.05 minutes, respectively, for L. fasciatus. The swimming behavior exhibited by O. uniformis and L. fasciatus corresponds to the style known as a breast strokelike maneuver. This is the first record of this kind of swimming for both species here observed and increases to seven the number of genera of Curculionidae exhibiting this behavior.