Lava discharge rate estimates from thermal infrared satellite data at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala

Time-averaged discharge rates (TADR) were calculated for five lava flows at Pacaya Volcano (Guatemala), using an adapted version of a previously developed satellite-based model. Imagery acquired during periods of effusive activity between the years 2000 and 2010 were obtained from two sensors of differing temporal and spatial resolutions; the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) Imager. A total of 2873 MODIS and 2642 GOES images were searched manually for volcanic “hot spots”. It was found that MODIS imagery, with superior spatial resolution, produced better results than GOES imagery, so only MODIS data were used for quantitative analyses. Spectral radiances were transformed into TADR via two methods; first, by best-fitting some of the parameters (i.e. density, vesicularity, crystal content, temperature change) of the TADR estimation model to match flow volumes previously estimated from ground surveys and aerial photographs, and second by measuring those parameters from lava samples to make independent estimates. A relatively stable relationship was defined using the second method, which suggests the possibility of estimating lava discharge rates in near-real-time during future volcanic crises at Pacaya.

Erupted magma volume estimates at Santiaguito and Pacaya Volcanoes, Guatemala using digital elevation models

High resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) of Santiaguito and Pacaya volcanoes, Guatemala, were used to estimate volume changes and eruption rates between 1954 and 2001. The DEMs were generated from contour maps and aerial photography, which were analyzed in ArcGIS 9.0®. Because both volcanoes were growing substantially over the five decade period, they provide a good data set for exploring effective methodology for estimating volume changes. The analysis shows that the Santiaguito dome complex grew by 0.78 ± 0.07 km3 (0.52 ± 0.05 m3 s-1) over the 1954-2001 period with nearly all the growth occurring on the El Brujo (1958-75) and Caliente domes (1971-2001). Adding information from field data prior to 1954, the total volume extruded from Santiaguito since 1922 is estimated at 1.48 ± 0.19 km3. Santiaguito’s growth rate is lower than most other volcanic domes, but it has been sustained over a much longer period and has undergone a change toward more exogenous and progressively slower extrusion with time. At Santiaguito some of the material being added at the dome is subsequently transported downstream by block and ash flows, mudflows and floods, creating channel shifting and areas of aggradation and erosion. At Pacaya volcano a total volume of 0.21 ± 0.05 km3 was erupted between 1961 and 2001 for an average extrusion rate of 0.17 ± 0.04 m3 s-1. Both the Santiaguito and Pacaya eruption rate estimates reported here are minima, because they do not include estimates of materials which are transported downslope after eruption and data on ashfall which may result in significant volumes of material spread over broad areas. Regular analysis of high resolution DEMs using the methods outlined here, would help quantify the effects of fluvial changes to downstream populated areas, as well as assist in tracking hazards related to dome collapse and eruption.

Fossil bubble in porphyritic basaltic pyroclasts produced by small and large strombolian eruption at Pacaya, Guatemala

We investigate compositionally monotonous, but energetically diverse, tephra samples from Pacaya to see if fossil bubbles in pyroclasts could reflect eruptive style. Bubble size distributions (BSD) were determined for four ash to lapilli size tephra samples using an adapted version of stereology conversion by Sahagian and Proussevitch (1998). Eruptions range from very weak to very energetic. Hundreds of ESEM BSEs images were processed throughout ImageJ software for a robust and statistically correct data set of vesicles (minimum 700 bubbles per sample). Qualitative textural analysis and major element chemical compositions were also executed. There is higher vesicularity for explosive pyroclasts and an inverse correlation between bubble number density (NV) and explosivity.

SPRING DISCHARGE MONITORING IN LOW-RESOURCE SETTINGS: A CASE STUDY OF CONCEPCIÓN CHIQUIRICHAPA, GUATEMALA

Water springs are the principal source of water for many localities in Central America, including the municipality of Concepción Chiquirichapa in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. Long-term monitoring records are critical for informed water management as well as resource forecasting, though data are scarce and monitoring in low-resource settings presents special challenges. Spring discharge was monitored monthly in six municipal springs during the author’s Peace Corps assignment, from May 2011 to March 2012, and water level height was monitored in two spring boxes over the same time period using automated water-level loggers. The intention of this approach was to circumvent the need for frequent and time-intensive manual measurement by identifying a fixed relationship between discharge and water level. No such relationship was identified, but the water level record reveals that spring yield increased for four months following Tropical Depression 12E in October 2011. This suggests that the relationship between extreme precipitation events and long-term water spring yields in Concepción should be examined further. These limited discharge data also indicate that aquifer baseflow recession and catchment water balance could be successfully characterized if a long-term discharge record were established. This study also presents technical and social considerations for selecting a methodology for spring discharge measurement and highlights the importance of local interest in conducting successful community-based research in intercultural low-resource settings.

PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Combining charcoal sediment and molecular markers to infer a Holocene fire history in the Maya Lowlands of Petén, Guatemala

Vegetation changes in the Maya Lowlands during the Holocene are a result of changing climate conditions, solely anthropogenic activities, or interactions of both factors. As a consequence, it is difficult to assess how tropical ecosystems will cope with projected changes in precipitation and land-use intensification over the next decades. We investigated the role offire during the Holocene by combining macroscopic charcoal and the molecular fire proxies levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan. Combining these two different fire proxies allows a more robust understanding of the complex history of fire re- gimes at different spatial scales during the Holocene. In order to infer changes in past biomass burning, we analysed a lake sediment core from Lake Peten Itza, Guatemala, and compared our results with millennial-scale vegetation and climate change available in the area. We detected three periods of high fire activity during the Holocene: 9500 e 6000 cal yr BP, 3700 cal yr BP and 2700 cal yr BP. We attribute the first maximum mostly to climate conditions and the last maximum to human activities. The rapid change between burned vegetation types at the 3700 cal yr BP fire maximum may result from human activity.

Die von Bernoulli und Cario 1866 - 1878 in Guatemala gesammelten Bromeliaceen

Von L. Wittmack

Plantae Lehmannianae in Guatemala, Costa-Rica, Columbia, Ecuador etc. collectae: Leguminosae

Auctore Mare Micheli

Plantae Lehmannianae in Guatemala, Costarica, Columbia et Ecuador collectae, additis quibusdam ab aliis collectoribus ex iisdem regionibus necnon e Venezuela et Peruvia allatis, quas determinavit et descripsit adjuvantibus aliis auctoribus

G. Hieronymus

Antibiotic susceptibility and resistance among bacterial enteropathogens isolated from international travelers to Mexico, Guatemala, and India, 2006--2008

The incidence rates of travelers' diarrhea (TD) have remained unchanged for the last fifty years. More recently, there have been increasing recommendations for self-initiated therapy and even prophylactic therapy for TD. There is no recent data on the in vitro activities of commonly used antibiotics for TD therapy and whether there have been any changes in susceptibilities over the last ten years. 456 enteropathogens were isolated from adult travelers to Mexico, India, and Guatemala between the years 2006 to 2008. MICs were determined for 10 different antimicrobials by the agar dilution method. Traditional antibiotics such as ampicillin, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, and doxycycline continue to show high levels of resistance. Current first line antibiotic agents including fluoroquinolones and azithromycin had significantly higher MICs when compared to 10 years ago and MIC90 levels were beyond the CSLI cutoffs for resistance. There were significant geographical differences in resistance patterns when comparing Central America with India. Entertoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) isolates were more resistant to ciprofloxacin (p=0.023), and levofloxacin (p=0.0078) in India; whereas, enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) isolates from Central America showed more resistance. When compared to MICs of isolates 10 years prior, there was a four to ten-fold increase in MIC90s for ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin and azithromycin for both ETEC and EAEC. There were no significant changes in rifaximin MICs over the last ten years, which makes it a promising agent for TD. Rising MICs over time implicate the need for continuous surveillance of susceptibility patterns worldwide and for geography specific recommendations in TD therapy.^

SOCIAL AND BIOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF SHORT-TERM GROWTH VELOCITY AMONG PRESCHOOLERS OF RURAL GUATEMALA: A PATH ANALYSIS APPROACH (WEIGHT-GAIN, IRON DEFICIENCY, GASTROINTESTINAL SYMPTOMS)

This dissertation develops and tests through path analysis a theoretical model to explain how socioeconomic, socioenvironmental, and biologic risk factors simultaneously influence each other to further produce short-term, depressed growth in preschoolers. Three areas of risk factors were identified: child's proximal environment, maturational stage, and biological vulnerability. The theoretical model represented both the conceptual framework and the nature and direction of the hypotheses. Original research completed in 1978-80 and in 1982 provided the background data. It was analyzed first by nested-analysis of variance, followed by path analysis. The study provided evidence of mild iron deficiency and gastrointestinal symptomatology in the etiology of depressed, short-term weight gain. Also, there was evidence suggesting that family resources for material and social survival significantly contribute to the variability of short-term, age-adjusted growth velocity. These results challenge current views of unifocal intervention, whether for prevention or control. For policy formulations, though, the mechanisms underlying any set of interlaced relationships must be decoded. Theoretical formulations here proposed should be reassessed under a more extensive research design. It is suggested that studies should be undertaken where social changes are actually in progress; otherwise, nutritional epidemiology in developing countries operates somewhere between social reality and research concepts, with little grasp of its real potential. The study stresses that there is a connection between substantive theory, empirical observation, and policy issues. ^

SEVERITY OF IRON DEFICIENCY ANEMIA AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO GROWTH AND MORBIDITY IN A POPULATION OF PRE-SCHOOLERS IN RURAL GUATEMALA (IRON DEFICIENCY, MORBIDITY, GROWTH)

The objectives of this study were to determine the nature of the relationship between severity of iron deficiency anemia, response to iron treatment, respiratory and gastrointestinal illness and weight change. Seventy-five pre-school children from rural Guatemala received daily oral iron therapy for an eleven week period, and were classified into one of three groups having different degrees of iron deficiency anemia. Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected prior and after iron treatment; morbidity data were collected throughout the period of treatment. The outcome variables were percentage weight change, percentage of total days ill with any type of symptom, percentage of total days ill with gastrointestinal symptoms, percentage of total days ill with respiratory symptoms, percentage of total days ill with combination syndrome symptoms. Age, sex and socio-economic status, were independent of any of the independent or outcome variables used. On the other hand, the level of hemoglobin covaried with the height of the children, the smallest children were the most severely anemic. The relationships between hemoglobin levels and weight change, frequency of morbidity (gastrointestinal, respiratory and combination syndrome) and total number of days ill with any symptomatology were investigated. No statistical significance was found in these analyses except when contrasting children with normal hemoglobin levels to iron deficient children, where the findings indicated the normal children experienced more gastrointestinal morbidity. The same relationship were again analyzed but including delta hemoglobin as covariate in the analysis, this latter one was found to be significant at 7% when the percentage of days ill from gastrointestinal morbidity was tested against the hemoglobin groups. The relationship found indicates that, all other covariates accounted for, the percentage of days ill from gastrointestinal morbidity will decrease approximately 1% for each 1% increase in delta of hemoglobin. ^