Protectionism and industrialization: a critical assessment of the Latin American industrialization period

Protectionist policies were considered one of the pivotal features of the import industrialization process in Latin America. In this paper the effects of protectionist policies are assessed in terms of the principal macroeconomic variables, productive structure and external trade composition; also, ECLAC's perspective on the import substitution process is discussed. The main conclusions are that regional protectionist policies were spontaneous, and their effects were limited due to the generalized protection that took place and the government's commitment to price stability.

Endividamento público, crescimento, moeda e inflação: comentário a "Matemática agradável", de Gerson Lima

The paper aims at analyzing the article by Gerson Lima on the manner by which fiscal deficit should be covered. It presents a more general dynamic model, where the principle of effective demand is explicitly used. By doing that, it is possible to treat as endogenous variables the national income and the government entries, what brings the result that the public debt must not follow an explosive path unless the very restrictive conditions of Lima's paper prevail. It also evaluates Lima's implicit inflation theory, and argues against his approximation to Friedman's framework.

Endividamento público, crescimento, moeda e inflação: comentário a "matemática agradável", de Gerson Lima - a réplica

This paper aims at replying critical commentaries made by Leite, F. P., Aggio, G. O. e Angeli, E. (this Review, 2009) on two Author's theses. The first one states that, if public deficit is to be financed, then either interest rate applied is negative or government invests as if it where a profit-making business enterprise. Otherwise, public debt will mathematically follow an explosive trend. The second one says that if there is no debt and public deficit is paid with money issuing, then the monetary stock will tend to an equilibrium level.

The 2008 financial crisis and neoclassical economics

The 2008 global financial crisis was the consequence of the process of financialization, or the creation of massive fictitious financial wealth, that began in the 1980s, and of the hegemony of a reactionary ideology, namely, neoliberalism, based on self-regulated and efficient markets. Although capitalism is intrinsically unstable, the lessons from the stock-market crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s were transformed into theories and institutions or regulations that led to the "30 glorious years of capitalism" (1948-1977) and that could have avoided a financial crisis as profound as the present one. It did not because a coalition of rentiers and "financists" achieved hegemony and, while deregulating the existing financial operations, refused to regulate the financial innovations that made these markets even more risky. Neoclassical economics played the role of a meta-ideology as it legitimized, mathematically and "scientifically", neoliberal ideology and deregulation. From this crisis a new capitalism will emerge, though its character is difficult to predict. It will not be financialized but the tendencies present in the 30 glorious years toward global and knowledge-based capitalism, where professionals will have more say than rentier capitalists, as well as the tendency to improve democracy by making it more social and participative, will b e resumed.

Ciência econômica e modelos de explicação científica: retomando a questão

Economic science and scientific explanation models. Economics was born under the sign of methodological vagueness. The first author who tried to solve the question (John Stuart Mill) asserted that it is a kind of knowledge that uses the abstract (direct deductive) method but also that it is an exception because for all other phenomena in the field of moral science the correct method is the inverse deductive or historical method. On the other side, functionalist explanations that are condemned by the scientific precepts of economics are present in the science since its beginning with Adam Smith. Economics went ahead without worriment about these methodological issues but this indefiniteness has never gone off stage. Since the start of XXI century new facts are emerging. Developments in Psychology are giving a new breath to Friedman's point of view and seem to fortify the mainstream (Rogebert e Nordberg, 2005), whereas unfolding in complexity science promises to throw it down and put in its place another kind of explanation borrowed from Biology (Beinhocker, 2006). All this stimulates to retake the question. We do this here, under a critical vision, taking the taxonomy of scientific explanations framed by modern positivism.

Juros, câmbio e o sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil

Interest rate, exchange rate and the system of inflation target in Brazil. In the consensus view of the Brazilian system of inflation targeting, the core of inflation is due to demand shocks; the rate of interest is set to control demand; and some variation in the exchange rate happens as "collateral damage". In this note we argue that in reality core inflation comes from cost push; the interest rate affects the exchange rate; changes in the exchange rate affect costs and prices; it is the effect of interest rates on demand that is the "collateral damage" and that the long run anchor of the system is low average real wage rigidity.

A note on inflation targeting and economic growth in Brazil

This paper analyzes the relation between monetary policy and economic performance in Brazil during the period 1999-2006. In particular, it discusses the growth effects of the inflation targeting regime through its effects on aggregate demand. It is argued that monetary policy under IT reacts in a procyclical and asymmetric way to fluctuations in economic activity (too "tight" during recessions, not so "loose" during expansions). Such pattern may generate a downward bias in aggregate demand, with negative real effects on output growth and employment. Our results suggest that monetary policy has been procyclical and asymmetrical in Brazil under inflation targeting. The main economic policy implication of this study is that central banks should consider more seriously the real effects of monetary policy on output and employment.

Uncertainties, monetary policy and financial stability: challenges on inflation targeting

This work aims at presenting the challenges that inflation targeting central banks may face since uncertainties represent a harmful element for the effectiveness of monetary policy, and since financial instabilities may disturb the transmission mechanisms - in particular, the expectation channel - and thus the economic stability. Financial stability must not be considered as a simple goal of monetary policy, but a precondition for central banks operate their policies and reach the goals of inflation and output stability. The work identifies different sources of uncertainties that surround central banks' decisions; and approaches the role that inflation targeting central banks should play according to some basic principles that can serve as useful guides for central banks to help them achieve successful outcomes in their conduct of monetary policy.

Os efeitos das políticas industriais para o setor de produtos eletrônicos do Brasil

The effect of industrial policies on the electronic sector in Brazil. Brazil's reputation in vertical industrial policies is dreadful. The electronics industry case is a good example. As measured by the performance of Brazil's exports vis-à-vis that of a group of emerging economies, the result of these policies was a total disaster. Had not been for the inadequacy of Brazil's industrial policies for this sector, exports of manufactures could have been between 36% and 46% higher than they actually were. Brazil's cumulated losses from 1984, when foreign microcomputer firms were prohibited to operate in the country, are estimated to be from 3.6 to 4.6 the country's manufactures export revenue in 2005.

A sobrevivência das pequenas empresas no desenvolvimento capitalista

The survival of small companies in the capitalist development. The role of small companies in capitalist development has raised, throughout the years, the analytical curiosity of economists and other social scientists. In spite of the enormous disadvantages that they possess in competing with big capital, there are innumerable reasons for their survival. The empirical evidence is clear in attesting the importance of small companies in terms of GDP share and job creation and, at the same time, their difficulties for surviving. This paper presents a theoretical revision, departing from Marx, Marshall, Steindl and Schumpeter up to some contemporary authors, concerning the role of the small companies in capitalist development, emphasizing the reasons and the difficulties for its survival.

Transparência do banco central: uma análise para o caso brasileiro

Central Bank transparency: an analysis of the Brazilian case. Nowadays there is a tendency among central banks of increasing transparency in the conduction of the monetary policy. After the adoption of inflation targeting in Brazil there was an increase in the communication of the Central Bank of Brazil with the public. This paper makes a brief review of the recent theoretical and empirical literature concerning this subject. Furthermore, an analysis due to the transparency in the conduction of Brazilian monetary policy on important macroeconomic variables is made. The findings denote that an increase in transparency improves the behavior of several macroeconomic variables.

Are we all Keynesians?

This essay asks whether we are all becoming Keynesians again. It offers some thoughts about the impact of the financial crisis on macroeconomic theory and Keynesian theory, and on post-Keynesian theory in particular. It is argued that the crisis does have obvious effects on how Keynesianism is being perceived by decision makers, and that some effects are also observed on academia. However, there are forces within the economics profession and the population at large which are resistant to this second coming of the Keynesian revolution.

China: estabilidade e crescimento econômico

China: stability and economic growth. China experienced an extraordinary economic growth since 1978, while keeping inflation low. Which are the main determinants for this performance and to what point has macroeconomic policy been responsible? Obviously, many factors have been important although none of them may be appointed as the sole determinant. The paper also argues whether China would be able to keep this pace of growth or will slow down, like many other Asian countries. It is argued that China will maintain her average rate of growth in the near future.

Desindustrialização: conceituação, causas, efeitos e o caso brasileiro

De-Industrialization: concept, causes, effects and the Brazilian case. This article aims to do a theoretical discussion about the term "de-industrialization" and its relationship with other concepts as "primarization" of exports and "Dutch disease". After that we will analyze the possible causes and effects of "de-industrialization". Finally, we analyze the Brazilian case, with a special attention over the economic literature about this issue.