EU Grand Strategy: Optimism is Mandatory. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 36, July 2012

The Arab Spring, the American pivot, and the global crisis: these affect all of EU external action, but also present opportunities for EU action. A debate on grand strategy remains necessary.

The implications for the EU and national budgets of the use of EU instruments for macro-financial stability. CEPS Special Report, 4 September 2012

The euro crisis has forced member states and the EU institutions to create a series of new instruments to safeguard macro-financial stability of the Union. This study describes the status of existing instruments, the role of the European Parliament and how the use of the instruments impinges on the EU budget also through their effects on national budgets. In addition, it presents a survey of other possible instruments that have been proposed in recent years (e.g. E-bonds and eurobonds), in order to provide an assessment of how EU macro-financial stability assistance could evolve in the future and what could be its impact on EU public finances.

A sovereign wealth fund to lift Germany's curse of excess savings. CEPS Policy Brief No. 280, 28 August 2012

As an alternative to the present system of intermediation of the German savings surplus, this paper suggests that the risk-adjusted rate of return could be improved by creating a sovereign wealth fund for Germany (designated DESWF), which could invest excess German savings globally. Such a DESWF would offer German savers a secure vehicle paying a guaranteed positive minimum real interest rate, with a top-up when real investment returns allowed. The vehicle would invest the funds in a portfolio that is highly diversified by geography and asset classes. Positive real returns can be expected in the long run based on positive real global growth. Since, in this case, a significant amount of funds would flow outside the euro area, the euro would depreciate, which would help crisis countries presently struggling to revive growth through exports and to close their external deficits so as to recoup their international credit-worthiness. Target imbalances would gradually disappear and German claims abroad would move from nominal claims on the ECB to diversified real and nominal claims on various private and public foreign entities in a variety of asset classes.

The euro crisis: ten roots, but fewer solutions. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/17, October 2012

Many factors have contributed to the euro crisis. Some have been addressed by policymakers, even if belatedly, and European Union member states have been willing to improve the functioning of the euro area by agreeing to relinquish national sovereignty in some important areas. However, the most pressing issue threatening the integrity, even the existence, of the euro, has not been addressed: the deepening economic contraction in southern euro-area member states. The common interest lies in preserving the integrity of the euro area and in offering these countries improved prospects. Domestic structural reform and appropriate fiscal consolidation, wage increases and slower fiscal consolidation in economically stronger euro-area countries, a weaker euro exchange rate, debt restructuring and an investment programme should be part of the arsenal. In the medium term, more institutional change will be necessary to complement the planned overhaul of the euro area institutional framework. This will include the deployment of a euro-area economic stabilising tool, managing the overall fiscal stance of the euro area, some form of Eurobonds and measures to make euro-area level decision making bodies more effective and democratically legitimate.

The policy mix and macroeconomic adjustment in the Euro area. CEPS Commentary, 15 October 2012

Against the background of the IMF’s latest global economic forecast, Jørgen Mortensen and Cinzia Alcidi raise questions in a new CEPS Commentary about the timing of the implementation and the effects of the three main categories of economic policy – fiscal, monetary and structural.

How to deal with macroeconomic imbalances? CEPS Special Report No. 69, 23 November 2012

Lax financial conditions can foster credit booms. The global credit boom of the last decade led to large capital flows across the world, including large movements of resources from the northern countries of the euro area towards the southern part. Since the start of the crisis and more markedly after 2009, these flows have suddenly stopped, creating severe adjustment pressure. At this point the common monetary policy can only try to mitigate the unavoidable adjustment by maintaining overall financial stability. The challenge is to strike a delicate balance between providing liquidity for solvent institutions while keeping the overall pressure on for a rapid correction of the imbalances.

The role of competition and state aid policy in financial and monetary law

During the financial crisis, companies and lenders found themselves in distressed situations. Competition authorities across the globe had to deal with controversial issues such as the application of the failing firm defence in merger transactions as well as assessment of emergency aid granted by states. This article considers competition policy in periods of crisis, in particular the failing firm defence in merger control and its state aid policy.

International financial centres, office market rents and volatility

Despite continuing developments in information technology and the growing economic significance of the emerging Eastern European, South American and Asian economies, international financial activity remains strongly concentrated in a relatively small number of international financial centres. That concentration of financial activity requires a critical mass of office occupation and creates demand for high specification, high cost space. The demand for that space is increasingly linked to the fortunes of global capital markets. That linkage has been emphasised by developments in real estate markets, notably the development of global real estate investment, innovation in property investment vehicles and the growth of debt securitisation. The resultant interlinking of occupier, asset, debt and development markets within and across global financial centres is a source of potential volatility and risk. The paper sets out a broad conceptual model of the linkages and their implications for systemic market risk and presents preliminary empirical results that provide support for the model proposed.

IS capabilities for supporting post crisis regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2007-2009, has precipitated large scale regulatory change. Financial organizations are faced with implementing new regulations of considerable breadth and depth. Firms are faced with engaging in complex and costly change management programs at a time when profits are diminished. Furthermore, investors are becoming increasingly focused on compliance are seeking to ensure that organizations can demonstrate robust compliance practices as part of their due diligence process .The role of IS in underpinning stable, is paramount. IS allows the stable and consistent controls for meeting regulations in order to ensure long term effective compliance. Consequently, our study explores the IS capabilities which support the post crisis regulatory landscape. We identify eight key capabilities: Managing Internal Controls, Measuring Monitoring and Reporting Transactions, IS Development and Procurement, Managing Third Parties, Sharing and Selecting Best Practice, IS Leadership, Data Management and Enabling Cultural Change.

The role of rules-based compliance systems in the new EU regulatory landscape: perspectives of institutional change and agency

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the subsequent reaction of the G20 have created a new global regulatory landscape. Within the EU, change of regulatory institutions is ongoing. The research objective of this study is to understand how institutional changes to the EU regulatory landscape may affect corresponding institutionalized operational practices within financial organizations and to understand the role of agency within this process. Our motivation is to provide insight into these changes from an operational management perspective, as well as to test Thelen and Mahoney?s (2010) modes of institutional change. Consequently, the study researched implementations of an Investment Management System with a rules-based compliance module within financial organizations. The research consulted compliance and risk managers, as well as systems experts. The study suggests that prescriptive regulations are likely to create isomorphic configurations of rules-based compliance systems, which consequently will enable the institutionalization of associated compliance practices. The study reveals the ability of some agents within financial organizations to control the impact of regulatory institutions, not directly, but through the systems and processes they adopt to meet requirements. Furthermore, the research highlights the boundaries and relationships between each mode of change as future avenues of research.

Building post crisis watchtowers: investment management Systems and new institutional logics for regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has precipitated large scale regulatory change. Tight deadlines for implementation require organizations to start working on remediation projects before final drafts of regulations are crystalized. Firms are faced with engaging in complex and costly change management programs at a time when profits are diminished. As a consequence of these factors, pre-crisis logics for organizing compliance practices are being questioned and new approaches introduced. Our study explores the use of Investment Management Systems (IMS) in facilitating compliance arrangements. Our motivation is to understand the new logics and the part played by IMS in supporting these approaches. The study adopts an institutional logics perspective to explore the use of such systems at eight financial organizations. The study found new logics for organizing compliance include consolidation, centralization, harmonization and consistency and that the IMS plays an important role in supporting and enabling related activities.

Institutional pressures on financial services firms: the role of information systems in regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2008 led to new international regulatory controls for the governance, risk and compliance of financial services firms. Information systems play a critical role here as political, functional and social pressures may lead to the deinstitutionalization of existing structures, processes and practices. This research examines how an investment management system is introduced by a leading IT vendor across eight client sites in the post-crisis era. Using institutional theory, it examines changes in working practices occurring at the environmental and organizational levels and the ways in which technological interventions are used to apply disciplinary effects in order to prevent inappropriate behaviors. The results extend the constructs of deinstitutionalization and identify empirical predictors for the deinstitutionalization of compliance and trading practices within financial organizations.

Public real estate and the term structure of interest rates: a cross-country study

Using a variation of the Nelson-Siegel term structure model we examine the sensitivity of real estate securities in six key global markets to unexpected changes in the level, slop and curvature of the yield curve. Our results confirm the time-sensitive nature of the exposure and sensitivity to interest rates and highlight the importance of considering the entire term structure of interest rates. One issue that is of particular of interest is that despite the 2007-9 financial crisis the importance of unanticipated interest rate risk weakens post 2003. Although the analysis does examine a range of markets the empirical analysis is unable to provide definitive evidence as to whether REIT and property-company markets display heightened or reduced exposure.

Attractive Work Process

Many companies both in Sweden and other parts of the world are since the beginning of the 21st century faceing a lack of work force (1,2,3). The ability to recruit and retain skilled employees is seen as one of the most important questions for the survival and development of the companies (4,5). Labour shortage is seen as the biggest obstacle for expansion for small enterprises in Sweden (5). There is a need for workplaces to be attractive, but how can the attractiveness be increased? Researchers at Högskolan Dalarna have during almost a decennium conducted research concerning attractive work. Based on a modell of qualities that contributes to make a work attractive (6) has a method aiming for raised attractiveness been developed for SME:s. All employees participate by answering a questionnaire about the importance of different qualities and to what degree they are fulfilled. Further discussions at the workplace on what to preserve and what to develop make the base for an action plan.Important experiences:• Discuss and establish the aim of the method with management and employees. • The company must be prepared to follow up and realize the action plan.• Agree about expectations – they must be realistic and practicable.• Reserve time to start the process and to end up in an action plan. • Avoid negative thinking and put problems away. • Take all the time small steps in the right direction.• Keep employees engaged and avoid the manager or process leader to take the command.• Use the strategy with small work groups; it gives better possibilities for participation and outspokenness.• Follow up studies are necessary to keep up the motivation.The most positive aspects of the method is its promoting perspective and that it engages all the employees.1.Rauhut, D. (2002). Arbetskraftsbrist och arbetskraftsinvandring: hot eller möjlighet för ekonomisk tillväxt? Östersund, ITPS, Institutet för tillväxtpolitiska studier.2.Funch, M. and C. Ehrnooth. (2008, 08-10-2008). Labour shortage despite financial crisis? Retrieved 2008-12-16, 2008, from www.norden.org/webb/news/news.asp?id=8113&lang=6. 3.Manpower (2008). Talent Shortage Survey 2008 Global Results: 10. 4.Bakker, A. B. and W. B. Schaufeli (2008). Positive organizational behavior: Engaged employees in flourishing organizations. Journal of Organizational Behavior 29: 147-154.5.Kennemar, J. and L. Jagrén (2008). Småföretagsbarometern. Stockholm, Swedbank Företagarna: 23.6.Åteg, M., A. Hedlund, et al. (2004). Attraktivt arbete. Från anställdas uttalanden till skapandet av en modell. Stockholm, Arbetslivsinstitutet.

Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction