Predator-prey models: an application for the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva

In this paper we present a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for a predator-prey model applied to ecology considering the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We consider the introduction of a random effect in the model and the presence of a covariate vector. An application to ecology is considered using a data set related to the plankton dynamics of lake Geneva for the year 1990. We also discuss some aspects of discrimination of the proposed models.

Estudo do fluxo de neutrino solar com o código evolutivo de Toulouse - Geneva

The study of solar neutrinos is very important to a better comprehension of the set of nuclear reactions that occurs inside the Sun and in solar type stars. The ux of neutrinos provides a better comprehension of the stellar structure as a whole. In this dissertation we study the ux of neutrinos in a solar model, addressing the neutrino oscillation, analyzing with the intention of determining and verify the distribution from a statistical point of view, since this ux depends on the particles intrinsic velocity distributions in stellar plasma. The main tool for this analysis was the Toulouse-Geneva Stellar Evolution Code, or TGEC, which allow us to obtain the neutrino ux values per reaction and per layer inside the Sun, allowing us to compare the observational results for the neutrino ux detected on experiments based on Cl37 (Homestake), Ga71 (SAGE, Gallex/GNO) and water (SNO). Our results show the nal distribution for neutrino ux as a function of the depth using the coordinates of mass and radius. The dissertation also shows that the equations for this ux are present in TGEC.

Tracking and Perspectives on WTO Negotiations: from Geneva to Hong Kong , July-December 2005

This month's issue of the FAL Bulletin takes a panoramic view of the present World Trade Organization (WTO) trade negotiations, soon to embark on the Sixth Ministerial Conference in Hong Kong (Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China ). Reduced expectations on the outcomes of this meeting due to the scant progress on critical issues - such as the liberalization of the agricultural sector - increase the challenge to conclude the Doha Round by the end of 2006. The governments of the region have a role to play in the direction this process may take. Additional details on the progress of these objectives can be obtained in chapter II of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy, 2004 Trends 2005.

Prognostic value of the Geneva prediction rule in patients in whom pulmonary embolism is ruled out

The prognosis of patients in whom pulmonary embolism (PE) is suspected but ruled out is poorly understood. We evaluated whether the initial assessment of clinical probability of PE could help to predict the prognosis for these patients.