Hglm: A package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models

We present the hglm package for fitting hierarchical generalized linear models. It can be used for linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models with random effects for a variety of links and a variety of distributions for both the outcomes and the random effects. Fixed effects can also be fitted in the dispersion part of the model.

Genetic heterogeneity of residual variance : estimation of variance components using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results: We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM), where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions: We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Parameter estimation of Poisson generalized linear mixed models based on three different statistical principles : a simulation study

Generalized linear mixed models are flexible tools for modeling non-normal data and are useful for accommodating overdispersion in Poisson regression models with random effects. Their main difficulty resides in the parameter estimation because there is no analytic solution for the maximization of the marginal likelihood. Many methods have been proposed for this purpose and many of them are implemented in software packages. The purpose of this study is to compare the performance of three different statistical principles - marginal likelihood, extended likelihood, Bayesian analysis-via simulation studies. Real data on contact wrestling are used for illustration.

Seguimento clinoceletrográfico de criançcas e adolescentes com crise epiléptica única não-provocada

Os fenômenos convulsivos despertaram o interesse de estudiosos e pensadores já na Antigüidade, quando aspectos mágicos e sobrenaturais eram a eles associados. No século XIX foram lançadas as bases dos conceitos atuais sobre a desestruturação funcional cerebral na epilepsia, e Berger, em 1929, marcou definitivamente a história com a descoberta dos ritmos cerebrais. Crise epiléptica e epilepsia não são sinônimos, já que o último termo refere-se a crises recorrentes espontâneas. Ela costuma iniciar na infância, daí a preocupação com o risco de repetição do primeiro episódio e com a decisão de instituir tratamento medicamentoso. Fatores prognósticos são apontados, mas não há consenso. No Brasil existem poucas pesquisas nesta linha, tanto de prevalência da epilepsia como de fatores envolvidos na recorrência de crises. Este estudo teve como objetivo geral avaliar aspectos clinicoeletrográficos capazes de auxiliar no prognóstico e no manejo da epilepsia da criança e do adolescente. Foram objetivos específicos determinar a incidência de crise epiléptica não provocada recorrente; identificar fatores remotos implicados na ocorrência de crise epiléptica; relacionar tipo de crise com achados eletrencefalográficos; relacionar tipo de crise, duração da crise, estado vigília/sono no momento da crise e achados eletrencefalográficos com possibilidade de recorrência; e identificar os fatores de risco para epilepsia. Foram acompanhados 109 pacientes com idades entre 1 mês e 16 anos, com primeira crise não-provocada, em média por 24 meses, a intervalos trimestrais, no Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA). Foram realizados eletrencefalogramas (EEG) após a primeira crise; depois, solicitados anualmente. Não foram incluídos casos com epilepsia ou síndrome epiléptica bem definida, ou que fizeram uso prévio de drogas antiepilépticas. A média de idade foi 6 anos, com predomínio da faixa etária de 6 a 12 anos. Setenta eram meninos e 39, meninas. Os indivíduos brancos eram 92, e os não-brancos, 17. O nível de escolaridade dos casos esteve de acordo com a distribuição da idade e, entre os responsáveis, predominaram 8 anos de escolaridade. Foi possível concluir que as crises únicas não-provocadas mais freqüentes foram generalizadas, e sem predomínio significativo do tipo de EEG. A incidência de crise não-provocada recorrente foi 51,4%. História de intercorrências pré-natais maternas aumentou em 2 vezes o risco de repetição de crises. Via de nascimento, escore de Apgar no 5º minuto, relação peso ao nascer/idade gestacional, intercorrências no período pós-natal imediato e desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor não tiveram influência na recorrência. História familiar de crises mostrou tendência à significância estatística para repetição dos episódios, com risco de 1,7. Não foi encontrada associação entre tipo de crise e achado eletrencefalográfico. A maioria das crises foi de curta duração (até 5 minutos), mas este dado não esteve relacionado com a recorrência. Estado de vigília teve efeito protetor na recorrência. Se a primeira crise foi parcial, o risco de repetição foi 1,62, com tendência à significância. Quando o primeiro EEG foi alterado, houve relação significativa com primeira crise tanto generalizada como parcial. O primeiro EEG com alterações paroxísticas focais apontou risco de repetição de 2,90. Quando as variáveis envolvidas na repetição de crises foram ajustadas pelo modelo de regressão de Cox, EEG alterado mostrou risco de 2,48, com riscos acumulados de 50%, 60%, 62% e 68%; com EEG normal, os riscos foram 26%, 32%, 34% e 36% em 6, 12, 18 e 24 meses respectivamente.

Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

The not so generalized effects of nonreciprocal trade agreements

This dissertation uses an empirical gravity equation approach to study the relationship between nonreciprocal trade agreements (NRTAs) and members’ trade flows. Estimations relate bilateral imports to trade policy variables using a very comprehensive dataset with over fifty years of data. Results show that meager average trade effects exist only if members are excluded from the world trading system or if they are very poor. As trade flows between NRTA members are already rising before their creation, results also suggest a strong endogeneity concerning their formation. Moreover, estimations show that uncertainty and discretion tend to critically hinder NRTA’s performance. On the other hand, reciprocal trade agreements show the opposite pattern regardless of members’ income status.Encouraging developing countries’ openness to trade through reciprocal liberalization emerges consequently as a possible policy implication.

A prática de atividade física de crianças e adolescentes com e sem epilepsia

The epilepsy is one of the neurological disorders more common in the pediatric period, and which interferes significantly in the psycho and social life of children and teenagers. The objective of this study was analyzing the practice of sedentary practices, physicals, traditional infant fun and games of children and teenagers with and without epilepsy. The study was prospective, transversal descriptive, done with 60 children and teenagers with epilepsy (Epileptic Group - EG) patients from Pediatric Neurology Clinic of the Centre Integrated Health Lineu Araújo and 60 children and teenagers without epilepsy (Control Group - CG) students from municipal public school, both of the two groups paired with the same age (age group 7 to 14 years) of both the genders (female = 25/41,6% and male = 35/58,3%) of the Teresina city Piauí. It was done two pattern questionnaires, one applied to children and teenagers of the EG and CG to identify the sedentary activities, physical and traditional infant games and other to the parents/responsible of the EG about the clinical and demographic information. The results permitted the elaboration of two manuscripts: a) the first one titled The Practice of Sedentary and Physical Activities of Children and Teenagers with Epilepsy which showed significant difference in the sedentary activities of playing with car toy (p=0,021) to the EG and reading to the CG (p=0,001); in the physical activities the school physical education (p=0,001) and riding a bike (p=0,014) to the CG; b) the second one The Practice of Infant Games and Fun the children and teenagers with and without Epilepsy in this one the playing with marble presented significant difference (p=0,016) to the CG, despite the girls of the two groups don t do this activity. Observing the distribution of frequencies, it was verified that in the play catch-up and hide-and-seek and burn the EG plays more than the CG both in female and male gender. The girls of the EG play less skip, 60 while the boys of the two groups don t play. Elastic jump the girls of the two groups play in a same frequency and the boys don t participate of this fun. The seizures were found to occur during: soccer (23,3%); hide-and-seek (6,6%) and running (3,3%). In the sedentary activities, seizures were reported to occur: resting and watching TV (18,3%), sleeping (36,0%); sitting (13,3%) and lying down (11,7%). Our results showed that the epileptic group and the controls group engage in the same activities, although the epileptic group participates less than the controls. Although the EG had presented a bigger percentage of generalized attacks, they don t occur during the practice of formal physical activities. The research was developed by a multidisciplinary team, and this contributed a lot to the realization of this study

Generalized systemic cryptococcosis in a dog after immunosuppressive corticotherapy

Um cão da raça Boxer, macho, com 2 anos e 11 meses de idade foi encaminhado ao hospital veterinário com histórico de distúrbio gastroentérico de dois meses de duração, apatia, hiporexia, emagrecimento progressivo e deficiência visual. Ataxia e vocalização foram observadas posteriormente. O animal estava sendo tratado em outra clínica veterinária com antibióticos e doses imunossupressoras de corticóides, direcionados ao controle de provável enterite alimentar. A morte ocorreu após cinco dias. As observações macro e microscópica revelaram tratar-se de criptococose sistêmica, atingindo trato digestório, olhos, SNC, rins, pâncreas e linfonodos. O presente relato enfatiza a infecção fúngica criptocócica quanto aos seus aspectos grastrointestinais iniciais a serem considerados no diagnóstico clínico, ressaltando a imunossupressão induzida pela corticoterapia.

Generalized linear mixed models for the genetic evaluation of binary reproductive traits: a simulation study

The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of probit and logit link functions for the genetic evaluation of early pregnancy using simulated data. The following simulation/analysis structures were constructed: logit/logit, logit/probit, probit/logit, and probit/probit. The percentages of precocious females were 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30% and were adjusted based on a change in the mean of the latent variable. The parametric heritability (h²) was 0.40. Simulation and genetic evaluation were implemented in the R software. Heritability estimates (ĥ²) were compared with h² using the mean squared error. Pearson correlations between predicted and true breeding values and the percentage of coincidence between true and predicted ranking, considering the 10% of bulls with the highest breeding values (TOP10) were calculated. The mean ĥ² values were under- and overestimated for all percentages of precocious females when logit/probit and probit/logit models used. In addition, the mean squared errors of these models were high when compared with those obtained with the probit/probit and logit/logit models. Considering ĥ², probit/probit and logit/logit were also superior to logit/probit and probit/logit, providing values close to the parametric heritability. Logit/probit and probit/logit presented low Pearson correlations, whereas the correlations obtained with probit/probit and logit/logit ranged from moderate to high. With respect to the TOP10 bulls, logit/probit and probit/logit presented much lower percentages than probit/probit and logit/logit. The genetic parameter estimates and predictions of breeding values of the animals obtained with the logit/logit and probit/probit models were similar. In contrast, the results obtained with probit/logit and logit/probit were not satisfactory. There is need to compare the estimation and prediction ability of logit and probit link functions.

The dorsal raphe nucleus exerts opposed control on generalized anxiety and panic-related defensive responses in rats

It has been proposed that the ascending dorsal raphe (DR)-serotonergic (5-HT) pathway facilitates conditioned avoidance responses to potential or distal threat, while the DR-periventricular 5-HT pathway inhibits unconditioned flight reactions to proximal danger. Dysfunction on these pathways would be, respectively, related to generalized anxiety (GAD) and panic disorder (PD). To investigate this hypothesis, we microinjected into the rat DR the benzodiazepine inverse receptor agonist FG 7142, the 5-HT1A receptor agonist 8-OH-DPAT or the GABA(A) receptor agonist muscimol. Animals were evaluated in the elevated T-maze (ETM) and light/dark transition test. These models generate defensive responses that have been related to GAD and PD. Experiments were also conducted in the ETM 14 days after the selective lesion of DR serotonergic neurons by 5,7-dihydroxytriptamine (DHT). In all cases, rats were pre-exposed to one of the open arms of the ETM 1 day before testing. The results showed that FG 7142 facilitated inhibitory avoidance, an anxiogenic effect, while impairing one-way escape, an anxiolytic effect. 8-OH-DPAT, muscimol, and 5,7-DHT-induced lesions acted in the opposite direction, impairing inhibitory avoidance while facilitating one-way escape from the open arm. In the light/dark transition, 8-OH-DPAT and muscimol increased the time spent in the lighted compartment, an anxiolytic effect. The data supports the view that distinct DR-5-HT pathways regulate neural mechanisms underlying GAD and PD. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Involvement of median raphe nucleus 5-HT1A receptors in the regulation of generalized anxiety-related defensive behaviours in rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

On the Generalized Mittag-Leffler Function and its Application in a Fractional Telegraph Equation

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)