Projections de l'utilisation des lits dans le canton de Vaud : hôpitaux de zone, 1990-2010

La projection utilise toujours le programme de simulation SIMULIT, dans sa treizième version. (...) Seule l'évolution démographique a été considérée dans les projections du nombre de lits: aucune des autres variables susceptibles de changer dans le futur n'a été prise en compte, ni celle en relation avec l'activité hospitalière elle-même (modification des taux d'hospitalisation, des durées de séjour, etc.), ni celles concernant l'état de santé de la population (modification de l'incidence ou de la prévalence des maladies). En d'autres termes, cette projection montre l'effet de l'évolution démographique sur l'activité hospitalière, si les caractéristiques de cette activité devaient rester celles observées dans les années 80. Il ne s'agit donc pas d'une prévision. [Auteurs, p. 1]

Prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity in the Lausanne population.

BACKGROUND: Obesity can be defined using body mass index (BMI) or waist (abdominal obesity). Little information exists regarding its prevalence and determinants in Switzerland. Hence, we assessed the levels of obesity as defined by BMI or waist circumference in a Swiss population-based sample. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based non-stratified random sample of 3,249 women and 2,937 men aged 35-75 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall participation rate was 41%. RESULTS: In men, the prevalences of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI > or =30 kg/m2) were 45.5% and 16.9%, respectively, higher than in women (28.3% and 14.3%, respectively). The prevalence of abdominal obesity (waist > or =102 in men and > or =88 cm in women) was higher in women than in men (30.6% vs. 23.9%). Obesity and abdominal obesity increased with age and decreased with higher educational level in both genders. In women, the prevalence of obesity was lower among former and current smokers, whereas in men the prevalence of obesity was higher in former smokers but did not differ between current and never smokers. Multivariate analysis showed age to be positively related, and education and physical activity to be negatively related with obesity and abdominal obesity in both genders, whereas differential effects of smoking were found between genders. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of abdominal obesity is higher than BMI-derived obesity in the Swiss population. Women presented with more abdominal obesity than men. The association between smoking and obesity levels appears to differ between genders.

Projections de l'utilisation des lits dans le canton de Vaud : CHUV, 1990-2010

Il faut insister sur le sens et les limites des résultats présentés ici. Seule l'évolution démographique a été considérée dans les projections du nombre de lits: aucune des autres variables susceptibles de changer dans le futur n'a été prise en compte, ni celles en relation avec l'activité hospitalière elle-même (modification des taux d'hospitalisation, des durées de séjour, etc.), ni celles concernant l'état de santé de la population (modification de l'incidence ou de la prévalence des maladies). En d'autres termes, cette projection montre l'effet de l'évolution démographique sur l'activité hospitalière, si les caractéristiques de cette activité devaient rester celles observées dans les années 80. Il ne s'agit donc pas d'une prévision. Le nombre de lits projetés constitue une sorte de référence, qui peut faciliter l'élaboration de scénarios sanitaires, ceux par exemple destinés à modifier l'effectif des lits hospitaliers. [Auteurs, p. 1]

Discordant secular trends in elevated blood pressure and obesity in children and adolescents in a rapidly developing country

BACKGROUND: The effect of the increasing prevalence of obesity on blood pressure (BP) secular trends is unclear. We analyzed BP and body mass index secular trends between 1998 and 2006 in children and adolescents of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing island state in the African region. METHODS AND RESULTS: School-based surveys were conducted annually between 1998 and 2006 among all students in 4 school grades (kindergarten and 4th, 7th, and 10th years of compulsory school). We used the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria to define obesity and elevated BP. The same methods and instruments were used in all surveys. Some 25 586 children and adolescents 4 to 18 years of age contributed 43 867 observations. Although the prevalence of obesity in boys and girls increased from 5.1% and 6.0%, respectively, in 1998 to 2000 to 8.0% and 8.7% in 2004 to 2006, the prevalence of elevated BP decreased from 8.4% and 9.8% to 6.9% and 7.8%. During the interval, mean age-adjusted body mass index increased by 0.57 kg/m(2) in boys and 0.58 kg/m(2) in girls. Mean age- and height-adjusted systolic BP decreased by -3.0 mm Hg in boys and -2.8 mm Hg in girls, whereas mean diastolic BP did not change substantially in boys (-0.2 mm Hg) and increased slightly in girls (0.4 mm Hg). CONCLUSIONS: At a population level, the marked increase in the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents in the Seychelles was not associated with a commensurate secular rise in mean BP.