Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Acampomelic Form of Campomelic Dysplasia with SOX9 Missense Mutation.

Campomelic dysplasia is a skeletal dysplasia characterized by flat face, Pierre Robin sequence, shortening and bowing of long bones and club feet. The authors describe a case of "acampomelic" campomelic dysplasia that differs from classical campomelic dysplasia by the absence of bone bowing. This condition is among the most common skeletal dysplasias but is often misdiagnosed in the absence of overt campomelia.

Actin cables and the exocyst form two independent morphogenesis pathways in the fission yeast.

Cell morphogenesis depends on polarized exocytosis. One widely held model posits that long-range transport and exocyst-dependent tethering of exocytic vesicles at the plasma membrane sequentially drive this process. Here, we describe that disruption of either actin-based long-range transport and microtubules or the exocyst did not abolish polarized growth in rod-shaped fission yeast cells. However, disruption of both actin cables and exocyst led to isotropic growth. Exocytic vesicles localized to cell tips in single mutants but were dispersed in double mutants. In contrast, a marker for active Cdc42, a major polarity landmark, localized to discreet cortical sites even in double mutants. Localization and photobleaching studies show that the exocyst subunits Sec6 and Sec8 localize to cell tips largely independently of the actin cytoskeleton, but in a cdc42 and phospholipid phosphatidylinositol 4,5-bisphosphate (PIP₂)-dependent manner. Thus in fission yeast long-range cytoskeletal transport and PIP₂-dependent exocyst represent parallel morphogenetic modules downstream of Cdc42, raising the possibility of similar mechanisms in other cell types.

MOS-SF-36 in evaluating health-related quality of life in alcohol-dependent patients.

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was evaluated in a sample of alcohol-dependent patients with the 36-item Medical Outcome Study Short-Form Health Survey (MOS-SF-36). The instrument was administered to 147 patients (77% males), aged 26-78, with a DSM-III-R diagnosis of alcohol dependence. The Hamilton Depression Scale (HDS), the Severity of Alcohol Dependence Questionnaire (SADQ), and the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) were also administered to the first 100 patients included in the study. The reliability and validity of the MOS-SF-36 were evaluated. Test-retest intraclass coefficients for a 10-day interval were in the range .65 to .79, whereas the Cronbach alpha coefficient indicated good internal consistency (range .70 to .89). Compared to scores observed in the general population, MOS-SF-36 scores for alcohol-dependent patients were relatively low (indicating worse perception of HRQoL), especially in the psychological and role dimensions (range 52/100 to 55/100), but were closer to populational values in the physical and functional dimensions (range 61/100 to 75/100)). The highest correlation between MOS-SF-36 dimensions and HDS was found in the MOS-SF-36 "mental health" dimension (r=-.56, p < .001); this dimension was also correlated highly with the psychiatric dimension of the ASI (r=-.73, p < .001). The eight dimensions of the MOS-SF-36 were 21% to 127% lower in patients with HDS greater than or equal to 16 (major depression) compared to those with HDS less than or equal to 7 (absence of depression). The MOS-SF-36 dimensions were 10% to 141% lower in patients with high "ASI alcohol" scores, indicating worse HRQoL profiles with a higher severity of alcohol dependence. The MOS-SF-36 presents good criteria for reliability and validity in alcohol-dependent patients. The results suggested that alcohol-dependent patients perceived their problems more as psychological than physical. The severity of alcohol dependence and depression seemed to influence the perception of HRQoL negatively.

Is a pre-anaesthetic information form really useful?

BackgroundAll patients should be fully informed about the risks and benefits of anaesthetic procedures before giving a written consent. Moreover, the satisfaction level may vary in proportion to the information given. We aimed to determine, in a single-blind randomized-controlled study, whether an information form given before the pre-anaesthetic consultation could improve perceived information, information gain and satisfaction level.MethodsTwo hundred patients ASA 1-3 scheduled for an elective orthopaedic surgery were randomized into two groups: a group that received an information form before the pre-anaesthetic consultation (IF group) and a control group (no information form). A standardized questionnaire was submitted after the pre-anaesthetic consultation and after the operation. This 17-item questionnaire explored perceived information (five items), information gain (three items) and satisfaction level (nine items). The items of each topic were pooled and compared between groups.ResultsOne hundred and eighty-five patients (92.5%) completed the study. The IF group had better perceived information (IF group 73% vs. control group 63%, P=0.002), higher information gain (IF group 75% vs. control group 62%, P=0.001) and a higher satisfaction level (IF group 95% vs. control group 92%, P=0.048).ConclusionsOur study suggests that an information form given before the pre-anaesthetic consultation enhances perceived information, information gain and satisfaction level.

Illusory contours: a window onto the neurophysiology of constructing perception.

Seeing seems effortless, despite the need to segregate and integrate visual information that varies in quality, quantity, and location. The extent to which seeing passively recapitulates the external world is challenged by phenomena such as illusory contours, an example of visual completion whereby borders are perceived despite their physical absence in the image. Instead, visual completion and seeing are increasingly conceived as active processes, dependent on information exchange across neural populations. How this is instantiated in the brain remains controversial. Divergent models emanate from single-unit and population-level electrophysiology, neuroimaging, and neurostimulation studies. We reconcile discrepant findings from different methods and disciplines, and underscore the importance of taking into account spatiotemporal brain dynamics in generating models of brain function and perception.

Self-Consolidating Concrete—Applications for Slip-Form Paving: Phase I (Feasibility Study), 2005

Over-consolidation is often visible as longitudinal vibrator trails in the surface of concrete pavements constructed using slip-form paving. Concrete research and practice have shown that concrete material selection and mix design can be tailored to provide a good compaction without the need for vibration. However, a challenge in developing self-consolidating concrete for slip-form paving (SF SCC) is that the new SF SCC needs to possess not only excellent self-compactibility and stability before extrusion, but also sufficient “green” strength after extrusion, while the concrete is still in a plastic state. The SF SCC to be developed will not be as fluid as the conventional SCC, but it will (1) be workable enough for machine placement, (2) be self-compacting with minimum segregation, (3) hold shape after extrusion from a paver, and (4) have performance properties (strength and durability) compatible to current pavement concrete. The overall objective of this project is to develop a new type of SCC for slip-form paving to produce more workable concrete and smoother pavements, better consolidation of the plastic concrete, and higher rates of production. Phase I demonstrated the feasibility of designing a new type of SF SCC that can not only self-consolidate, but also have sufficient green strength. In this phase, a good balance between flowability and shape stability was achieved by adopting and modifying the mix design of self-consolidating concrete to provide a high content of fine materials in the fresh concrete. It was shown that both the addition of fine particles and the modification of the type of plasticizer significantly improve fresh concrete flowability. The mixes used in this phase were also found to have very good shape stability in the fresh state. Phase II will focus on developing a SF SCC mix design in the lab and a performing a trial of the SF SCC in the field. Phase III will include field study, performance monitoring, and technology transfer.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Dissociation between components of spatial memory in rats after recovery from the effects of retrohippocampal lesions

A series of 4 experiments examined the performance of rats with retrohippocampal lesions on a spatial water-maze task. The animals were trained to find and escape onto a hidden platform after swimming in a large pool of opaque water. The platform was invisible and could not be located using olfactory cues. Successful escape performance required the rats to develop strategies of approaching the correct location with reference solely to distal extramaze cues. The lesions encompassed the entire rostro-caudal extent of the lateral and medial entorhinal cortex, and included parts of the pre- and para-subiculum, angular bundle and subiculum. Groups ECR 1 and 2 sustained only partial damage of the subiculum, while Group ECR+S sustained extensive damage. These groups were compared with sham-lesion and unoperated control groups. In Expt 1A, a profound deficit in spatial localisation was found in groups ECR 1 and ECR+S, the rats receiving all training postoperatively. In Expt 1B, these two groups showed hyperactivity in an open-field. In Expt 2, extensive preoperative training caused a transitory saving in performance of the spatial task by group ECR 2, but comparisons with the groups of Expt 1A revealed no sustained improvement, except on one measure of performance in a post-training transfer test. All rats were then given (Expt 3) training on a cueing procedure using a visible platform. The spatial deficit disappeared but, on returning to the normal hidden platform procedure, it reappeared. Nevertheless, a final transfer test, during which the platform was removed from the apparatus, revealed a dissociation between two independent measures of performance: the rats with ECR lesions failed to search for the hidden platform but repeatedly crossed its correct location accurately during traverses of the entire pool. This partial recovery of performance was not (Expt 4) associated with any ability to discriminate between two locations in the pool. The apparently selective recovery of aspects of spatial memory is discussed in relation to O'Keefe and Nadel's (1978) spatial mapping theory of hippocampal function. We propose a modification of the theory in terms of a dissociation between procedural and declarative subcomponents of spatial memory. The declarative component is a flexible access system in which information is stored in a form independent of action. It is permanently lost after the lesion. The procedural component is "unmasked" by the retrohippocampal lesion giving rise to the partial recovery of spatial localisation performance.

Human Capital Questionnaire (PHCQ): Assessment of European nurses' perception as indicators of human capital quality

Healthcare accreditation models generally include indicators related to healthcare employees' perceptions (e.g. satisfaction, career development, and health safety). During the accreditation process, organizations are asked to demonstrate the methods with which assessments are made. However, none of the models provide standardized systems for the assessment of employees. In this study, we analyzed the psychometric properties of an instrument for the assessment of nurses' perceptions as indicators of human capital quality in healthcare organizations. The Human Capital Questionnaire was applied to a sample of 902 nurses in four European countries (Spain, Portugal, Poland, and the UK). Exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: satisfaction with leadership, identification and commitment, satisfaction with participation, staff well-being, career development opportunities, and motivation. The results showed the validity and reliability of the questionnaire, which when applied to healthcare organizations, provide a better understanding of nurses' perceptions, and is a parsimonious instrument for assessment and organizational accreditation. From a practical point of view, improving the quality of human capital, by analyzing nurses and other healthcare employees' perceptions, is related to workforce empowerment.

La perception subjective de l'effet des neuroleptiques chez des patients schizophrènes ambulatoires: une étude transversale [Subjective perception of the effect of neuroleptics by outpatient schizophrenic patients: a cross-sectional study].

Subjective response to neuroleptics is essential to long term observance of treatment and quality of life of patients. Numerous factors (pharmacological, relational and psychopathological) are responsible of this subjective response. Objectives of this study are: (a) to examine psychometric features of the french version of the Drug Attitude Inventory (DAI-30) [13] and (b) to explore pharmacological, relational and psychopathological factors related to this subjective response. Subjects and methods: 78 subjects were rated (self rated response rate 61% (n = 48)) for (a) subjective response to neuroleptics, (b) compliance, (c) therapeutic alliance, (d) symptoms (e) severity of disorder. RESULTS: Factor analysis yielded 2 main clinically relevant factors, similar to the original version: (I) global subjective response and (II) specific subjective response. Internal consistency is high. Correspondance analysis showed two important dimensions in the treatment of schizophrenic patients: (I) Recovery--aggravation, (II) Therapeutic ambition--positive or negative symptoms. CONCLUSION: French version of DAI-30 seems to have a similar structure and psychometric features as the original version. It shows concordance with the degree of compliance. Pharmacological factors are not the only factors implicated in subjective response, but are still to be identified. Limitations of our study are: (a) nonhomogenous indication for treatment, (b) small rate and degree of non compliance in our sample. Relationships between therapeutic ambition, type of symptoms and treatment outcome should be further studied.