Development and characterization of microsatellite markers from Guarea guidonia (Meliaceae), a tree species from different habitats within the Brazilian Atlantic forest

The tree species Guarea guidonea (Meliaceae) belongs to a predominantly tropical family, being largely found in natural or anthropic forest fragments within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Aiming to develop future studies on the genetic structure of plant species from forests fragments, eleven microsatellite markers were developed for Guarea guidonia, based on the analysis of 45 individuals from natural populations of three different fragments within the forest-anthropic edge, interior fragment and natural edge. Only eight loci showed to be polymorphic and the number of alleles ranged from two to four (mean of 2.50). All populations showed almost the same level of genetic diversity (mean H(e) = 0.3775). These loci will be useful for population genetics studies on Guarea guidonea, providing information for the conservation and management of this species.

Development and characterization of microsatellite markers for Psychotria tenuinervis (Rubiaceae), a shrub species from the Atlantic forest, and primers transferability from Coffea

The shrub species Psychotria tenuinervis (Rubiaceae) is native to the Brazilian Atlantic forest and is largely found within natural and disturbed forest fragments. Aiming to develop studies on population genetic structure of forest fragment species, eigth microsatellite markers were developed for P. tenuinervis. Also, 15 loci already developed for Coffea (Rubiaceae) were tested for transferability to this species. We utilized 45 individuals from natural populations of three different fragments-anthropic edge, interior fragment and natural edge, within the Brazilian Atlantic forest. The average number of alleles per locus was 2.5 (two-four alleles/locus). These loci will be useful for future population genetic studies aiming to the conservation and management of this species.

Tree-ring formation, radial increment periodicity, and phenology of tree species from a seasonal semi-deciduous forest in southeast Brazil

Many tropical tree species produce growth rings in response to seasonal environmental factors that influence the activity of the vascular cambium. We applied the following methods to analyze the annual nature of treering formation of 24 tree species from a seasonal semi-deciduous forest of southeast Brazil: describing wood anatomy and phenology, counting tree rings after cambium markings, and using permanent dendrometer bands. After 7 years of systematic observations and measurements, we found the following: the trees lost their leaves during the dry season and grew new leaves at the end of the same season; trunk increment dynamics corresponded to seasonal changes in precipitation, with higher increment (active period) during the rainy season (October-April) and lower increment (dormant period) during the dry season (May-September); the number of tree rings formed after injuries to the cambium coincided with the number of years since the extraction of the wood samples. As a result of these observations, it was concluded that most study trees formed one growth ring per year. This suggests that tree species from the seasonal semi-deciduous forests of Brazil have an annual cycle of wood formation. Therefore, these trees have potential for use in future studies of tree age and radial growth rates, as well as to infer ecological and regional climatic conditions. These future studies can provide important information for the management and conservation of these endangered forests.

Ecosystem dynamics at disturbed and undisturbed sites in North Queensland wet tropical rain forest. III. Nutrient returns to the forest floor through litterfall

The nutrient contents and accessions in litterfall over a period of 3 y are reported for undisturbed areas and at two sites disturbed by selective harvesting in tropical rain forest in North Queensland, Australia. Mean concentrations (mg g(-1) dry weight) of nutrients in litterfall ranged from 10 to 12 for nitrogen; 0.33 to 0.43 for phosphorus; 3.6 to 4.3 for potassium; 6.0 to 10.5 for calcium and 1.7 to 2.6 for magnesium. These concentrations are in the middle to lower part of the spectrum of values recorded for tropical forest. Accessions of nutrients in litterfall (kg ha(-1) y(-1)) ranged from 59 to 64 N; 1.9 to 2.4 P; 20 to 24K; 34 to 63 Ca; and 9 to 16 Mg. These rates, particularly for IN and P, are among the lowest recorded for tropical forests. There were no consistent between-site differences in total nutrient accessions in small litterfall. In terms of the contribution of litterfall to the accessions of nutrients to the forest floor, this suggests that the logged sites have recovered from the effects of selective harvesting within 25 y. Nutrient accessions at each site were distinctly seasonal, with maximum accessions occurring in the late dry season to late in the wet season. Leaf-fall accounted for the largest proportion of nutrient accessions over the study period, although at certain times accessions in both reproductive material and wood were significant. A cyclone which crossed the coast near the study sites resulted in large nutrient accessions over a short period but had little effect on the total annual accession. A comparison with previous studies of litterfall in Australian tropical rainforests indicates that nutrient return in litterfall is directly related to soil fertility.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Local dispersion of the Eucalyptus leaf beetle Chrysophtharta bimaculata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), and implications for forest protection

1. Chrysophtharta bimaculata is a native chrysomelid species that can cause chronic defoliation of plantation and regrowth Eucalyptus forests in Tasmania, Australia. Knowledge of the dispersion pattern of C. bimaculata was needed in order to assess the efficiency of an integrated pest management (IPM) programme currently used for its control. 2. Using data from yellow flight traps, local populations of C. bimaculata adults were monitored over a season at spatial scales relevant to commercial forestry: within a 50-ha operational management unit (a forestry 'coupe') and between coupes. In addition, oviposition was monitored over a season at a subset of the between-coupe sites. 3. Dispersion indices (Taylor's Power Law and Iwao's Mean Crowding regression method) demonstrated that C. bimaculata adults were spatially aggregated within and between coupes, although the number of egg-batches laid at the between-coupe scale was uniform. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that trap-catches at the within-coupe level were similar (positively autocorrelated) to a radius distance of approximately 110 m, and then dissimilar (negatively autocorrelated) at approximately 250 m. At the between-coupe scale, no repeatable spatial autocorrelation patterns were observed. 4. For any individual site, rapid changes in beetle density were observed to be associated with loosely aggregated flights of beetles into and out of that site. Peak adult catches (> the weekly mean plus standard deviation trap-catch) for a site occurred for a period of 2.0 +/- 0.22 weeks at a time (n = 37), with normally only one or two peaks per site per season. Peak oviposition events for a site occurred on average 1.4 +/- 0.11 times per season and lasted 1.5 +/- 0.12 weeks. 5. Analysis of an extensive data set (n = 417) demonstrated that adult abundance at a site was positively correlated with egg density, but negatively correlated with tree damage (caused by conspecifics) and the presence of conspecific larvae. There was no relationship between adult abundance and a visual estimate of the amount of young foliage on trees. 6. Adults of C. bimaculata are show n to occur in relatively small, mobile aggregations. This means that pest surveys must be both regular (less than 2 weeks apart) and intensive (with sampling points no more than 150 m apart) if beetle populations are to be monitored with confidence. Further refinement of the current IPM strategy must recognize the problems posed by this temporal and spatial patchiness, particularly with regard to the use of biological insecticides, such as Bacillus thuringiensis, for which only a very short operational window exists.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating high and moderate spatial resolution image data to estimate forest age structure

The collection of spatial information to quantify changes to the state and condition of the environment is a fundamental component of conservation or sustainable utilization of tropical and subtropical forests, Age is an important structural attribute of old-growth forests influencing biological diversity in Australia eucalypt forests. Aerial photograph interpretation has traditionally been used for mapping the age and structure of forest stands. However this method is subjective and is not able to accurately capture fine to landscape scale variation necessary for ecological studies. Identification and mapping of fine to landscape scale vegetative structural attributes will allow the compilation of information associated with Montreal Process indicators lb and ld, which seek to determine linkages between age structure and the diversity and abundance of forest fauna populations. This project integrated measurements of structural attributes derived from a canopy-height elevation model with results from a geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model to map forest age structure at a landscape scale. The availability of multiple-scale data allows the transfer of high-resolution attributes to landscape scale monitoring. Multispectral image data were obtained from a DMSV (Digital Multi-Spectral Video) sensor over St Mary's State Forest in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Local scene variance levels for different forest tapes calculated from the DMSV data were used to optimize the tree density and canopy size output in a geometric-optical model applied to a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TU) data set. Airborne laser scanner data obtained over the project area were used to calibrate a digital filter to extract tree heights from a digital elevation model that was derived from scanned colour stereopairs. The modelled estimates of tree height, crown size, and tree density were used to produce a decision-tree classification of forest successional stage at a landscape scale. The results obtained (72% accuracy), were limited in validation, but demonstrate potential for using the multi-scale methodology to provide spatial information for forestry policy objectives (ie., monitoring forest age structure).

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.

Mapping glider habitat in dry eucalypt forests for Montreal Process indicator 1.1: Fragmentation of forest types

Accurate habitat mapping is critical to landscape ecological studies such as required for developing and testing Montreal Process indicator 1.1e, fragmentation of forest types. This task poses a major challenge to remote sensing, especially in mixedspecies, variable-age forests such as dry eucalypt forests of subtropical eastern Australia. In this paper, we apply an innovative approach that uses a small section of one-metre resolution airborne data to calibrate a moderate spatial resolution model (30 m resolution; scale 1:50 000) based on Landsat Thematic Mapper data to estimate canopy structural properties in St Marys State Forest, near Maryborough, south-eastern Queensland. The approach applies an image-processing model that assumes each image pixel is significantly larger than individual tree crowns and gaps to estimate crown-cover percentage, stem density and mean crown diameter. These parameters were classified into three discrete habitat classes to match the ecology of four exudivorous arboreal species (yellowbellied glider Petaurus australis, sugar glider P. breviceps, squirrel glider P. norfolcensis , and feathertail glider Acrobates pygmaeus), and one folivorous arboreal marsupial, the greater glider Petauroides volans. These species were targeted due to the known ecological preference for old trees with hollows, and differences in their home range requirements. The overall mapping accuracy, visually assessed against transects (n = 93) interpreted from a digital orthophoto and validated in the field, was 79% (KHAT statistic = 0.72). The KHAT statistic serves as an indicator of the extent that the percentage correct values of the error matrix are due to ‘true’ agreement verses ‘chance’ agreement. This means that we are able to reliably report on the effect of habitat loss on target species, especially those with a large home range size (e.g. yellow-bellied glider). However, the classified habitat map failed to accurately capture the spatial patterning (e.g. patch size and shape) of stands with a trace or sub-dominance of senescent trees. This outcome makes the reporting of the effects of habitat fragmentation more problematic, especially for species with a small home range size (e.g. feathertail glider). With further model refinement and validation, however, this moderateresolution approach offers an important, cost eff e c t i v e advancement in mapping the age of dry eucalypt forests in the region.

Fate of N-15-labelled nitrate in a wet summer under different residue management regimes in young hoop pine plantations

A field study was conducted to investigate the fate of N-15-labelled nitrate applied at 20 kg N ha(-1) in a wet summer to microplots installed in areas under different residue management regimes in second-rotation hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii) plantations aged 1-3 years in south-east Queensland, Australia. PVC microplots of 235 mm diameter and 300 mm long were driven into 250 mm soil. There were three replications of each of eight treatments. These were areas just under and between 1-year-old windrows (ca. 2-3 m in width) of harvesting residues spaced 15 m apart, and with and without incorporated foliage residues (20 t DM ha(-1)); the areas just under and between 2- or 3-year-old windrows spaced 10 m apart. Only 7-29% of the added N-15 was recovered from the top 750 mm of the soil profile with the leaching loss estimated to be 70-86% over the 34-day period. The N-15 loss via denitrification was 3.7-6.3% by directly measuring the N-15 gases emitted. The microplots with the incorporated residues at the 1-year-old site had the highest N-15 loss (6.3%) as compared with the other treatments. The N-15 mass balance method together with the use of bromide (Br) tracer applied at 100 kg Br ha(-1) failed to obtain a reliable estimate of the denitrification loss. The microplots at the 1-year-old site had higher N-15 immobilisation rate (7.5-24.7%) compared with those at 2- and 3-year-old sites (2.1-3.6%). Incorporating the residues resulted in an increase in N-15 immobilisation rate (24.5-24.7%) compared with the control without the incorporated residues (8.4-14.3%). These findings suggest that climatic conditions played important roles in controlling the N-15 transformations in the wet summer season and that the residue management regimes could also significantly influence the N-15 transformations. Most of the N-15 loss occurred through leaching, but a considerable amount of the N-15 was lost through denitrification. Bromide proved to be an unsuitable tracer for monitoring the N-15 leaching and movement under the wet summer conditions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.