Jamaica: Macro-socio-economic assessment of the damage done by flood rains and landslides May 2002

This assessment was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant damages to social and economic infrastructure and productive sectors as a result of a period of sustained and unusual rainfall associated with the convergence of a tropical wave over Jamaica and an area of high pressure to the north of the island resulting in periods of heavy and sustained rainfall over the period May 22 – June 2, 2002. A request for technical assistance was directed to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, on May 31, by the Planning Institute of Jamaica. In view of the recent training provided by the ECLAC Caribbean team in the use of the ECLAC methodology to a multi-disciplinary group of 58 persons spanning several sectors, it was felt that this event, while most unfortunate, nonetheless provided an opportune moment for the Jamaican “trainees” to utilize the skills transferred and to apply the methodology which had been taught. Consequently, ECLAC fielded a team of five persons a few days after the request had been made , to give the Jamaican counterpart team the opportunity to collect data of the type and using an approach well suited to the preparation of assessments such as this.

Progressive recovery of a tropical deforested stream community after a flash flood

AIM: In this study, we evaluated and compared community attributes from a tropical deforested stream, located in a pasture area, in a period before (PRED I) and three times after (POSD I, II, and III) a flash flood, in order to investigate the existence of temporal modifications in community structure that suggests return to conditions previous to the flash flood. METHODS: Biota samples included algae, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish assemblages. Changes in stream physical structure we also evaluated. Similarity of the aquatic biota between pre and post-disturbance periods was examined by exploratory ordination, known as Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling associated with Cluster Analysis, using quantitative and presence/absence Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients. Presence and absence data were used for multivariate correlation analysis (Relate Analysis) in order to investigate taxonomic composition similarity of biota between pre and post-disturbance periods. RESULTS: Our results evidenced channel simplification and an expressive decrease in richness and abundance of all taxa right after the flood, followed by subsequent increases of these parameters in the next three samples, indicating trends towards stream community recovery. Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients evidenced a greater community structure disparity among the period right after the flood and the subsequent ones. Multivariate correlation analysis evidenced a greater correlation between macroinvertebrates and algae/macrophytes, demonstrating the narrow relation between their recolonization dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Despite overall community structure tended to return to previous conditions, recolonization after the flood was much slower than that reported in literature. Finally, the remarkably high flood impact along with the slow recolonization could be a result of the historical presence of anthropic impacts in the region, such as siltation, riparian forest complete depletion, and habitat simplification, which magnified the effects of a natural disturbance.

Volcanological aspects of the northwest region of Parana continental flood basalts (Brazil)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chemical weathering rate, denudation rate, and atmospheric and soil CO2 consumption of Parana flood basalts in Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The October 1998 Flood of the Upper Guadalupe River System, Central Texas

The October 1998 flood on the upper Guadalupe River system was produced by a 24-hour precipitation amount of 483 mm at one station, over 380 mm at several other stations, and up to 590 mm over five days, precipitation amounts greater than the 100-year storm as prescribed in Weather Bureau Technical Papers 40 (1961) and 49 (1964). This study uses slope-area discharge estimates and published discharge and precipitation data to analyze flow characteristics of the three major branches of the Guadalupe River on the Edwards Plateau. The main channel of the Guadalupe has a single large flood-control structure at Canyon Dam and five flood dams on the tributary Comal River. On the upper San Marcos River there are five detention dams that regulate 80% of its drainage. The Blanco River, which has no structural controls, generated a peak discharge of 2,970 m3/s from a 1,067 km2 basin. Downstream of Canyon Dam, the Guadalupe River generated a peak discharge greater than 3,000 m3/s from an area of 223 km2. The event exceeded the capacity of both the Comal River and San Marcos flood-control projects and produced spills that inundated areas greater than the 100-year floodplain defined by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

RP93-395 Liability Insurance and the Family Child Care Provider

Life other small business owners, family child care providers need adequate life, health, and disability insurance to protect their families from the loss of their income. However, child care providers also face unique risks. Perhaps the most important of these risks is the financial loss that would result if the provider were found liable or responsible for the injury or death of a child or a child's parent. If a claim were filed against you as a provider, three different types of financial losses are possible: medical expenses, damages awarded to the victim or his/her family after a lawsuit, and court costs related to your defense. This booklet will help you to: (1) evaluate options for insuring a family child care operation, and (2) evaluate available liability insurance policies.

INSURANCE

We have been working with exterminators on the insurance problems for thirty-five or so years. Recently PCO’s have been doing much in the way of bird control. There does not seem to be anyone that we know of who does strictly bird control insurance, so our group always ties it in with our pest control. I feel that nothing touches everyone so regularly, with the exception of the federal government, as your insurance premiums. I would like to discuss with you the causes and results of accidents and how they can effect insurance premiums.

Re-Os isotope and highly siderophile element systematics of the Parana continental flood basalts (Brazil)

Basalts of the Parana continental flood basalt (PCFB) province erupted through dominantly Proterozoic continental crust during the Cretaceous. In order to examine the mantle source(s) of this major flood basalt province, we studied Os, Sr, Nd, and Pb isotope systematics, and highly siderophile element (HSE) abundances in tholeiitic basalts that were carefully chosen to show the minimal effects of crustal contamination. These basalts define a precise Re-Os isochron with an age of 131.6 +/- 2.3 Ma and an initial Os-187/Os-188 of 0.1295 +/- 0.0018 (gamma Os-187 = +2.7 +/- 1.4). This initial Os isotopic composition is considerably more radiogenic than estimates of the contemporary Depleted Mantle (DM). The fact that the Re-Os data define a well constrained isochron with an age similar to Ar-40/Ar-39 age determinations, despite generally low Os concentrations, is consistent with closed-system behavior for the HSE. Neodymium, Sr, and Pb isotopic data suggest that the mantle source of the basalts had been variably hybridized by melts derived from enriched mantle components. To account for the combined Os, Nd, Sr, and Pb isotopic characteristics of these rocks, we propose that the primary melts formed from metasomatized asthenospheric mantle (represented by arc-mantle peridotite) that underwent mixing with two enriched components, EM-I and EM-II. The different enriched components are reflected in minor isotopic differences between basalts from southern and northern portions of the province. The Tristan da Cunha hotspot has been previously suggested to be the cause of the Parana continental flood basalt magmatism. However, present-day Tristan da Cunha lavas have much higher Os-187/Os-188 isotopic compositions than the source of the PCFB. These data, together with other isotopic and elemental data, preclude making a definitive linkage between the Tristan plume and the PCFB. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust statistical modeling using the Birnbaum-Saunders-t distribution applied to insurance

In this paper, we carry out robust modeling and influence diagnostics in Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) regression models. Specifically, we present some aspects related to BS and log-BS distributions and their generalizations from the Student-t distribution, and develop BS-t regression models, including maximum likelihood estimation based on the EM algorithm and diagnostic tools. In addition, we apply the obtained results to real data from insurance, which shows the uses of the proposed model. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States market evolution and product valuation

In this work we discuss the secondary market for life insurance policies in the United States of America. First, we give an overview of the life settlement market: how it came into existence, its growth prospects and the ethical issues it arises. Secondly, we discuss the characteristics of the different life insurance products present in the market and describe how life settlements are originated. Life settlement transactions tend to be long and complex transactions that require the involvement of a number of parties. Also, a direct investment into life insurance policies is fraught with a number of practical issues and entails risks that are not directly related to longevity. This may reduce the efficiency of a direct investment in physical policies. For these reasons, a synthetic longevity market has evolved. The number of parties involved in a synthetic longevity transaction is typically smaller and the broker-dealer transferring the longevity exposure will be retaining most or all of the risks a physical investment entails. Finally, we describe the main methods used in the market to evaluate life settlement investments and the role of life expectancy providers.

Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.