Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

Intra-crystalline protein diagenesis (IcPD) in Patella vulgata. Part II: Breakdown and temperature sensitivity

Artificial diagenesis of the intra-crystalline proteins isolated from Patella vulgata was induced by isothermal heating at 140 °C, 110 °C and 80 °C. Protein breakdown was quantified for multiple amino acids, measuring the extent of peptide bond hydrolysis, amino acid racemisation and decomposition. The patterns of diagenesis are complex; therefore the kinetic parameters of the main reactions were estimated by two different methods: 1) a well-established approach based on fitting mathematical expressions to the experimental data, e.g. first-order rate equations for hydrolysis and power-transformed first-order rate equations for racemisation; and 2) an alternative model-free approach, which was developed by estimating a “scaling” factor for the independent variable (time) which produces the best alignment of the experimental data. This method allows the calculation of the relative reaction rates for the different temperatures of isothermal heating. High-temperature data were compared with the extent of degradation detected in sub-fossil Patella specimens of known age, and we evaluated the ability of kinetic experiments to mimic diagenesis at burial temperature. The results highlighted a difference between patterns of degradation at low and high temperature and therefore we recommend caution for the extrapolation of protein breakdown rates to low burial temperatures for geochronological purposes when relying solely on kinetic data.

The role of dust in climate changes today, at the last glacial maximum and in the future.

Natural mineral aerosol (dust) is an active component of the climate system and plays multiple roles in mediating physical and biogeochemical exchanges between the atmosphere, land surface and ocean. Changes in the amount of dust in the atmosphere are caused both by changes in climate (precipitation, wind strength, regional moisture balance) and changes in the extent of dust sources caused by either anthropogenic or climatically induced changes in vegetation cover. Models of the global dust cycle take into account the physical controls on dust deflation from prescribed source areas (based largely on soil wetness and vegetation cover thresholds), dust transport within the atmospheric column, and dust deposition through sedimentation and scavenging by precipitation. These models successfully reproduce the first-order spatial and temporal patterns in atmospheric dust loading under modern conditions. Atmospheric dust loading was as much as an order-of-magnitude larger than today during the last glacial maximum (LGM). While the observed increase in emissions from northern Africa can be explained solely in terms of climate changes (colder, drier and windier glacial climates), increased emissions from other regions appear to have been largely a response to climatically induced changes in vegetation cover and hence in the extent of dust source areas. Model experiments suggest that the increased dust loading in tropical regions had an effect on radiative forcing comparable to that of low glacial CO2 levels. Changes in land-use are already increasing the dust loading of the atmosphere. However, simulations show that anthropogenically forced climate changes substantially reduce the extent and productivity of natural dust sources. Positive feedbacks initiated by a reduction of dust emissions from natural source areas on both radiative forcing and atmospheric CO2 could substantially mitigate the impacts of land-use changes, and need to be considered in climate change assessments.

How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets.

Global syntheses of palaeoenvironmental data are required to test climate models under conditions different from the present. Data sets for this purpose contain data from spatially extensive networks of sites. The data are either directly comparable to model output or readily interpretable in terms of modelled climate variables. Data sets must contain sufficient documentation to distinguish between raw (primary) and interpreted (secondary, tertiary) data, to evaluate the assumptions involved in interpretation of the data, to exercise quality control, and to select data appropriate for specific goals. Four data bases for the Late Quaternary, documenting changes in lake levels since 30 kyr BP (the Global Lake Status Data Base), vegetation distribution at 18 kyr and 6 kyr BP (BIOME 6000), aeolian accumulation rates during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (DIRTMAP), and tropical terrestrial climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (the LGM Tropical Terrestrial Data Synthesis) are summarised. Each has been used to evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 calendar kyr BP) and/or mid-Holocene (6 cal. kyr BP) environments. Comparisons have demonstrated that changes in radiative forcing and orography due to orbital and ice-sheet variations explain the first-order, broad-scale (in space and time) features of global climate change since the LGM. However, atmospheric models forced by 6 cal. kyr BP orbital changes with unchanged surface conditions fail to capture quantitative aspects of the observed climate, including the greatly increased magnitude and northward shift of the African monsoon during the early to mid-Holocene. Similarly, comparisons with palaeoenvironmental datasets show that atmospheric models have underestimated the magnitude of cooling and drying of much of the land surface at the LGM. The inclusion of feedbacks due to changes in ocean- and land-surface conditions at both times, and atmospheric dust loading at the LGM, appears to be required in order to produce a better simulation of these past climates. The development of Earth system models incorporating the dynamic interactions among ocean, atmosphere, and vegetation is therefore mandated by Quaternary science results as well as climatological principles. For greatest scientific benefit, this development must be paralleled by continued advances in palaeodata analysis and synthesis, which in turn will help to define questions that call for new focused data collection efforts.

The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions

14C-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in the Earth’s orbital parameters during this perod. First, reconstructed 6000 yr BP values of bioclimate variables obtained from pollen and lake-level data with the constrained-analogue technique are compared with simulated values. Then a 6000 yr BP biome map obtained from pollen data with an objective biome reconstruction (biomization) technique is compared with BIOME model results derived from the same simulation. Data and simulations agree in some features: warmer-than-present growing seasons in N and C Europe allowed forests to extend further north and to higher elevations than today, and warmer winters in C and E Europe prevented boreal conifers from spreading west. More generally, however, the agreement is poor. Predominantly deciduous forest types in Fennoscandia imply warmer winters than the model allows. The model fails to simulate winters cold enough, or summers wet enough, to allow temperate deciduous forests their former extended distribution in S Europe, and it incorrectly simulates a much expanded area of steppe vegetation in SE Europe. Similar errors have also been noted in numerous 6000 yr BP simulations with prescribed modern sea surface temperatures. These errors are evidently not resolved by the inclusion of interactive sea-surface conditions in the CCM1. Accurate representation of mid-Holocene climates in Europe may require the inclusion of dynamical ocean–atmosphere and/or vegetation–atmosphere interactions that most palaeoclimate model simulations have so far disregarded.

Transmission of wireless power by magnetic resonance

The work involves investigation of a type of wireless power system wherein its analysis will yield the construction of a prototype modeled as a singular technological artifact. It is through exploration of the artifact that forms the intellectual basis for not only its prototypical forms, but suggestive of variant forms not yet discovered. Through the process it is greatly clarified the role of the artifact, its most suitable application given the constraints on the delivery problem, and optimization strategies to improve it. In order to improve maturity and contribute to a body of knowledge, this document proposes research utilizing mid-field region, efficient inductive-transfer for the purposes of removing wired connections and electrical contacts. While the description seems enough to state the purpose of this work, it does not convey the compromises of having to redraw the lines of demarcation between near and far-field in the traditional method of broadcasting. Two striking scenarios are addressed in this thesis: Firstly, the mathematical explanation of wireless power is due to J.C. Maxwell's original equations, secondly, the behavior of wireless power in the circuit is due to Joseph Larmor's fundamental works on the dynamics of the field concept. A model of propagation will be presented which matches observations in experiments. A modified model of the dipole will be presented to address the phenomena observed in the theory and experiments. Two distinct sets of experiments will test the concept of single and two coupled-modes. In a more esoteric context of the zero and first-order magnetic field, the suggestion of a third coupled-mode is presented. Through the remaking of wireless power in this context, it is the intention of the author to show the reader that those things lost to history, bound to a path of complete obscurity, are once again innovative and useful ideas.

Observations of nonthermal plasmas at different aspect angles

Data are presented from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter (Facility)) CP-3-E experiment which show large increases in the auroral zone convection velocities (>2 km s−1) over a wide range of latitudes. These are larger than the estimated neutral thermal speed and allow a study of the plasma in a nonthermal state over a range of observing angles. Spectra are presented which show a well-defined central peak, consistent with an ion velocity distribution function which significantly departs from a Maxwellian form. As the aspect angle decreases, the central peak becomes less obvious. Simulated spectra, derived using theoretical expressions for the O+ ion velocity distribution function based on the generalized relaxation collision model, are compared with the observations and show good first-order, qualitative agreement. It is shown that ion temperatures derived from the observations, with the assumption of a Maxwellian distribution function, are an overestimate of the true ion temperature at large aspect angles and an underestimate at low aspect angles. The theoretical distribution functions have been included in the “standard” incoherent scatter radar analysis procedure, and attempts have been made to derive realistic ionospheric parameters from nonthermal plasma observations. If the expressions for the distribution function are extended to include mixed ion composition, a significant improvement is found in fitting some of the observed spectra, and estimates of the ion composition can be made. The non-Maxwellian analysis of the data revealed that the spectral shape distortion parameter, D*, was significantly higher in this case for molecular ions than for atomic ions in a thin height slab roughly 40 km thick. This would seem unlikely if the main molecular ions present were NO+. We therefore suggest that N2+ formed a significant proportion of the molecular ions present during these observations.

The composite-tendency Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in semi-implicit integrations

Timediscretization in weatherandclimate modelsintroduces truncation errors that limit the accuracy of the simulations. Recent work has yielded a method for reducing the amplitude errors in leap-frog integrations from first-order to fifth-order.This improvement is achieved by replacing the Robert–Asselin filter with the Robert–Asselin–Williams (RAW) filter and using a linear combination of unfiltered and filtered states to compute the tendency term. The purpose of the present article is to apply the composite-tendency RAW-filtered leapfrog scheme to semi-implicit integrations. A theoretical analysis shows that the stability and accuracy are unaffected by the introduction of the implicitly treated mode. The scheme is tested in semi-implicit numerical integrations in both a simple nonlinear stiff system and a medium-complexity atmospheric general circulation model and yields substantial improvements in both cases. We conclude that the composite-tendency RAW-filtered leap-frog scheme is suitable for use in semi-implicit integrations.

The heliospheric Hale cycle over the last 300 years and its implications for a “lost” late 18th century solar cycle

A Hale cycle, one complete magnetic cycle of the Sun, spans two complete Schwabe cycles (also referred to as sunspot and, more generally, solar cycles). The approximately 22-year Hale cycle is seen in magnetic polarities of both sunspots and polar fields, as well as in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth, with odd- and even-numbered solar cycles displaying qualitatively different waveforms. Correct numbering of solar cycles also underpins empirical cycle-to-cycle relations which are used as first-order tests of stellar dynamo models. There has been much debate about whether the unusually long solar cycle 4 (SC4), spanning- 1784–1799, was actually two shorter solar cycles combined as a result of poor data coverage in the original Wolf sunspot number record. Indeed, the group sunspot number does show a small increase around 1794–1799 and there is evidence of an increase in the mean latitude of sunspots at this time, suggesting the existence of a cycle ‘‘4b’’. In this study, we use cosmogenic radionuclide data and associated reconstructions of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) to show that the Hale cycle has persisted over the last 300 years and that data prior to 1800 are more consistent with cycle 4 being a single long cycle (the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario). We also investigate the effect of cycle 4b on the HMF using an open solar flux (OSF) continuity model, in which the OSF source term is related to sunspot number and the OSF loss term is determined by the heliospheric current sheet tilt, assumed to be a simple function of solar cycle phase. The results are surprising; Without SC4b, the HMF shows two distinct peaks in the 1784–1799 interval, while the addition of SC4b removes the secondary peak, as the OSF loss term acts in opposition to the later rise in sunspot number. The timing and magnitude of the main SC4 HMF peak is also significantly changed by the addition of SC4b. These results are compared with the cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of HMF and historical aurora records. These data marginally favour the existence of SC4b (the ‘‘SC4b’’ scenario), though the result is less certain than that based on the persistence of the Hale cycle. Thus while the current uncertainties in the observations preclude any definitive conclusions, the data favour the ‘‘no SC4b’’ scenario. Future improvements to cosmogenic isotope reconstructions of the HMF, through either improved modelling or additional ice cores from well-separated geographic locations, may enable questions of the existence of SC4b and the phase of Hale cycle prior to the Maunder minimum to be settled conclusively.

On the observability of turbulent transport rates by Argo: supporting evidence from an inversion experiment

Although estimation of turbulent transport parameters using inverse methods is not new, there is little evaluation of the method in the literature. Here, it is shown that extended observation of the broad scale hydrography by Argo provides a path to improved estimates of regional turbulent transport rates. Results from a 20 year ocean state estimate produced with the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework provide supporting evidence. Turbulent transport parameter maps are estimated under the constraints of fitting the extensive collection of Argo profiles collected through 2011. The adjusted parameters dramatically reduce misfits to in situ profiles as compared with earlier ECCO solutions. They also yield a clear reduction in the model drift away from observations over multi-century long simulations, both for assimilated variables (temperature and salinity) and independent variables (bio-geochemical tracers). Despite the minimal constraints imposed specifically on the estimated parameters, their geography is physically plausible and exhibits close connections with the upper ocean ocean stratification as observed by Argo. The estimated parameter adjustments furthermore have first order impacts on upper-ocean stratification and mixed layer depths over 20 years. These results identify the constraint of fitting Argo profiles as an effective observational basis for regional turbulent transport rates. Uncertainties and further improvements of the method are discussed.

Response surface analysis of extract yield and flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L.) obtained by supercritical carbon dioxide extraction

This work evaluated the effect of pressure and temperature on yield and characteristic flavour intensity of Brazilian cherry (Eugenia uniflora L) extracts obtained by supercritical CO(2) using response surface analysis, which is a simple and efficient method for first inquiries. A complete central composite 2(2) factorial experimental design was applied using temperature (ranging from 40 to 60 degrees C) and pressure (from 150 to 250 bar) as independent variables. A second order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) for the extract yield as affected by pressure and temperature, with better results being achieved at the central point (200 bar and 50 degrees C). For the flavour intensity, a first order model proved to be predictive (p <= 0.05) showing the influence of temperature. Greater characteristic flavour intensity in extracts was obtained for relatively high temperature (> 50 degrees C), Therefore, as far as Brazilian cherry is concerned, optimum conditions for achieving higher extract yield do not necessarily coincide to those for obtaining richer flavour intensity. Industrial relevance: Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) is an emerging clean technology through which one may obtain extracts free from organic solvents. Extract yields from natural products for applications in food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries have been widely disseminated in the literature. Accordingly, two lines of research have industrial relevance, namely, (i) operational optimization studies for high SFE yields and (ii) investigation on important properties extracts are expected to present (so as to define their prospective industrial application). Specifically, this work studied the optimization of SFE process to obtain extracts from a tropical fruit showing high intensity of its characteristic flavour, aiming at promoting its application in natural aroma enrichment of processed foods. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transition redshift: new kinematic constraints from supernovae

The transition redshift (deceleration/acceleration) is discussed by expanding the deceleration parameter to first order around its present value. A detailed study is carried out by considering two different parametrizations, q = q(0) + q(1)z and q = q(0) + q(1)z(1 + z)(-1), and the associated free parameters (q(0), q(1)) are constrained by three different supernovae (SNe) samples. A previous analysis by Riess et al. using the first expansion is slightly improved and confirmed in light of their recent data (Gold07 sample). However, by fitting the model with the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) type Ia sample, we find that the best fit to the redshift transition is z(t) = 0.61, instead of z(t) = 0.46 as derived by the High-z Supernovae Search (HZSNS) team. This result based in the SNLS sample is also in good agreement with the sample of Davis et al., z(t) = 0.60(-0.11)(+0.28) (1 sigma). Such results are in line with some independent analyses and accommodate more easily the concordance flat model (Lambda CDM). For both parametrizations, the three SNe Ia samples considered favour recent acceleration and past deceleration with a high degree of statistical confidence level. All the kinematic results presented here depend neither on the validity of general relativity nor on the matter-energy contents of the Universe.

Interleukin-10 attenuates vascular responses to endothelin-1 via effects on ERK1/2-dependent pathway

Giachini FR, Zemse SM, Carneiro FS, Lima VV, Carneiro ZN, Callera GE, Ergul A, Webb RC, Tostes RC. Interleukin-10 attenuates vascular responses to endothelin-1 via effects on ERK1/2-dependent pathway. Am J Physiol Heart Circ Physiol 296: H489-H496, 2009. First published December 12, 2008; doi:10.1152/ajpheart.00251.2008.-Interleukin-10 (IL-10) is an anti-inflammatory cytokine with protective actions on the vasculature. On the other hand, endothelin ( ET)-1 has potent vasoconstrictor, mitogenic, and proinflammatory activities, which have been implicated in the pathophysiology of a number of cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that, in a condition where ET-1 expression is upregulated, i.e., on infusion of TNF-alpha, IL-10 confers vascular protection from ET-1-induced injury. Aortic rings and first-order mesenteric arteries from male C57BL/6 (WT) and IL-10-knockout (IL-10(-/-)) mice were treated with human recombinant TNF-alpha (220 ng.kg(-1).day(-1)) or vehicle (saline) for 14 days. TNF-alpha infusion significantly increased blood pressure in IL-10(-/-), but not WT, mice. TNF-alpha augmented vascular ET-1 mRNA expression in arteries from WT and IL-10(-/-) mice. ET type A (ETA) receptor expression was increased in arteries from IL-10(-/-) mice, and TNF-alpha infusion did not change vascular ETA receptor expression in control or IL-10(-/-) mice. Aorta and mesenteric arteries from TNF-alpha-infused IL-10(-/-) mice displayed increased contractile responses to ET-1, but not the ET type B receptor agonist IRL-1620. The ETA receptor antagonist atrasentan completely abolished responses to ET-1 in aorta and mesenteric vessels, whereas the ERK1/2 inhibitor PD-98059 abrogated increased contractions to ET-1 in arteries from TNF-alpha-infused IL-10(-/-) mice. Infusion of TNF-alpha, as well as knockdown of IL-10 (IL-10(-/-)), induced an increase in total and phosphorylated ERK1/2. These data demonstrate that IL-10 counteracts ET(A)-mediated vascular responses to ET-1, as well as activation of the ERK1/2 pathway.

Angiotensin type 1 receptor mediates thyroid hormone-induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy through the Akt/GSK-3 beta/mTOR signaling pathway

Several studies have implicated the renin angiotensin system in the cardiac hypertrophy induced by thyroid hormone. However, whether Angiotensin type 1 receptor (AT(1)R) is critically required to the development of T(3)-induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy as well as whether the intracellular mechanisms that are triggered by AT(1)R are able to contribute to this hypertrophy model is unknown. To address these questions, we employed a selective small interfering RNA (siRNA, 50 nM) or an AT(1)R blocker (Losartan, 1 mu M) to evaluate the specific role of this receptor in primary cultures of neonatal cardiomyocytes submitted to T(3) (10 nM) treatment. The cardiomyocytes transfected with the AT(1)R siRNA presented reduced mRNA (90%, P < 0.001) and protein (70%, P < 0.001) expression of AT(1)R. The AT(1)R silencing and the AT(1)R blockade totally prevented the T(3)-induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy, as evidenced by lower mRNA expression of atrial natriuretic factor (66%, P < 0.01) and skeletal alpha-actin (170%, P < 0.01) as well as by reduction in protein synthesis (85%, P < 0.001). The cardiomyocytes treated with T(3) demonstrated a rapid activation of Akt/GSK-3 beta/mTOR signaling pathway, which was completely inhibited by the use of PI3K inhibitors (LY294002, 10 mu M and Wortmannin, 200 nM). In addition, we demonstrated that the AT(1)R mediated the T(3)-induced activation of Akt/GSK-3 beta/mTOR signaling pathway, since the AT(1)R silencing and the AT(1)R blockade attenuated or totally prevented the activation of this signaling pathway. We also reported that local Angiotensin I/II (Ang I/II) levels (120%, P < 0.05) and the AT(1)R expression (180%, P < 0.05) were rapidly increased by T(3) treatment. These data demonstrate for the first time that the AT(1)R is a critical mediator to the T(3)-induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy as well as to the activation of Akt/GSK-3 beta/mTOR signaling pathway. These results represent a new insight into the mechanism of T(3)-induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy, indicating that the Ang I/II-AT(1)R-Akt/GSK-3 beta/mTOR pathway corresponds to a potential mediator of the trophic effect exerted by T(3) in cardiomyocytes.

Glassy states in the stochastic Potts model

We have studied by numerical simulations the relaxation of the stochastic seven-state Potts model after a quench from a high temperature down to a temperature below the first-order transition. For quench temperatures just below the transition temperature the phase ordering occurs by simple coarsening under the action of surface tension. For sufficient low temperatures however the straightening of the interface between domains drives the system toward a metastable disordered state, identified as a glassy state. Escaping from this state occurs, if the quench temperature is nonzero, by a thermal activated dynamics that eventually drives the system toward the equilibrium state. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.