Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Curriculum development of joint degrees courses with international institutions

With globalisation and severe budget constraints in the education sector in Australia and around the world it has become necessary for higher education institutions to be more outward looking and seek funding from non traditional sources to supplement the financial shortfalls. One way to overcome this problem is to work cooperatively with other institutions to share facilities and courses, at the same time generating valuable income to maintain the operation of the university. This paper describes the development of joint curricula in built environment and engineering courses in QUT. It outlines the stages of development starting from seeking international partners, developing memorandum of understanding, making visit to partner institution to inspect the facilities, curriculum development to meet the academic requirements of the institutions and professional bodies and finally the implementation process.

EUAustralia Online : News & Information from the Capitals of Europe to Australia (www.euaustralia.com)

Experimental / pilot online journalistic publication. EUAustralia Online (www.euaustralia.com) is a pilot niche publication identifying and demonstrating dynamics of online journalism. The editor, an experienced and senior journalist and academic, specialist in European studies, commenced publication on 28.8.06 during one year’s “industry immersion” -- with media accreditation to the European Commission, Brussels. Reporting now is from Australia and from Europe on field trip exercises. Student editors participate making it partly a training operation. EUAustralia demonstrates adaptation of conventional, universal, “Western” liberal journalistic practices. Its first premise is to fill a knowledge gap in Australia about the European Union -- institutions, functions and directions. The second premise is to test the communications capacity of the online format, where the publication sets a strong standard of journalistic credibility – hence its transparency with sourcing or signposting of “commentary” or ”opinion”. EUAustralia uses modified, enhanced weblog software allowing for future allocation of closed pages to subscribers. An early exemplar of its kind, with modest upload rate (2010-13 average, 16 postings monthly), esteemed, it commands over 180000 site visits p.a. (half as unique visitors; AWB Statistics); strongly rated by search engines, see page one Googlr placements for “EU Australia”. Comment by the ISP (SeventhVision, Broadbeach, Queensland): “The site has good search engine recognition because seen as credible; can be used to generate revenue”. This journalistic exercise has been analysed in theoretical context twice, in published refereed conference proceedings (Communication and Media Policy Forum, Sydney; 2007, 2009).

Housing supply in Australia : the impact of the availability of development finance

Before the Global Financial Crisis many providers of finance had growth mandates and actively pursued development finance deals as a way of gaining higher returns on funds with regular capital turnover and re-investment possible. This was able to be achieved through high gearing and low presales in a strong market. As asset prices fell, loan covenants breached and memories of the 1990’s returned, banks rapidly adjusted their risk appetite via retraction of gearing and expansion of presale requirements. Early signs of loosening in bank credit policy are emerging, however parties seeking development finance are faced with a severely reduced number of institutions from which to source funding. The few institutions that are lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive credit conditions including: low loan to value ratios, the corresponding requirement to contribute high levels of equity, lack of support in non-prime locations and the requirement for only borrowers with well established track records. In this risk averse and capital constrained environment, the ability of developers to proceed with real estate developments is still being constrained by their inability to obtain project finance. This paper will examine the pre and post GFC development finance environment. It will identify the key lending criteria relevant to real estate development finance and will detail the related changes to credit policies over this period. The associated impact to real estate development projects will be presented, highlighting the significant constraint to supply that the inability to obtain finance poses.

The Changing world and service problems in bankruptcy

In an age where financial transactions are conducted worldwide and mobility of citizens throughout the world is common, lawyers seeking to serve Bankruptcy Notices and Creditor’s Petitions encounter many problems. To assist lawyers in overcoming some of the service problems that are arising as a result of this changing world, a number of recent cases are considered that highlight a number of issues, including American Express Australia Limited v Michaels [2010] FMCA 103, Deputy Commissioner of Taxation v Barnes (2008) 70 ATR 776; [2008] FMCA 7, Battenberg v Restom & Ors (2005) 223 ALR 692; upheld by the Full Federal Court in Battenberg v Restrom and Ors (2006) 149 FCR 128 at 133; [2006] FCAFC 20 and Envee Energy Pty Ltd (In Liquidation) v Stockford [2007] FMCA 1426. While the fact situation of every bankruptcy case will differ, recent decisions may assist lawyers in dealing effectively with bankruptcy matters in these times of transition. Lawyers can facilitate completion of the litigious process within the relevant legislative framework in order to satisfy their responsibility to clients and to the Court by considering this case law.

An epistemic community as influencer and implementer in local government accounting in Australia

This paper adopts an epistemic community framework to explicate the dual role of epistemic communities as influencers of accounting policy within regulatory space and as implementers who effect change within the domain of accounting. The context is the adoption and implementation of fair value accounting within local government in New South Wales (NSW). The roles and functions of Australian local government are extensive, and include the development and maintenance of infrastructure, provision of recreational facilities, certain health and community services, buildings, cultural facilities, and in some cases, water and sewerage (Australian Local Government Association, 2009). The NSW state Department of Local Government (DLG) is responsible for legislation and policy development to ensure that local councils are able to deliver ‘quality services to their communities in a sustainable manner’ (DLG, 2008c). These local councils receive revenue from various sources including property rates, government grants and user-pays service provision. In July 2006 the DLG issued Circular 06-453 to councils (DLG, 2006c), mandating the staged adoption of fair value measurement of infrastructure assets. This directive followed the policy of NSW State Treasury (NSW Treasury, 2007),4 and an independent inquiry into the financial sustainability of local councils (LGSA, 2006). It was an attempt to resolve the inconsistency in public sector asset valuation in NSW Local Governments, and to provide greater usefulness and comparability of financial statements.5 The focus of this study is the mobilization of accounting change by the DLG within this wider political context. When a regulatory problem arises, those with political power seek advice from professionals with relevant skill and expertise (Potter, 2005). This paper explores the way in which professionals diffuse accounting ‘problems’ and the associated accounting solutions ‘across time and space’ (Potter, 2005, p. 277). The DLG’s fair value accounting policy emanated from a ‘regulatory space’ (Hancher and Moran, 1989)6 as a result of negotiations between many parties, including accounting and finance professionals. Operating within the local government sector, these professionals were identified by the DLG as being capable of providing helpful input. They were also responsible for the implementation of the new olicy within local councils. Accordingly they have been dentified as an pistemic community with the ability to ranslate regulatory power by changing he domain of ccounting (Potter, 2005, p. 278).7 The paper is organised as follows. The background to the LG’s decision to require the introduction of fair value accounting for infrastructure assets is explored. Following this, the method of the study is described, and the epistemic community framework outlined. In the next sections, evidence of the influencing and implementing roles of epistemic groups is provided. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the significance of these groups both within regulatory space in developing accounting regulation, and in embedding change within the domain of accounting.

An assessment of development funding for new housing post GFC in Queensland, Australia

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to identify changes in bank lending criteria due to the GFC and to explore the associated impacts on new housing supply in Queensland, Australia. Design/methodology/approach: This research involves a survey of each of Australia’s big four banks, as well as two prominent arrangers of development finance. Data on key lending criteria was collected: Pre GFC, during the GFC, and GFC recovery stage. Findings: The GFC has resulted in a retraction of funds available for residential development. The few institutions lending are filtering out only the best credit risks by way of constrictive loan covenants including: low loan to value ratios, high cash equity requirements, regional “no go” zones, and demonstrated borrower track record. The ability of developers to proceed with new housing developments is being constrained by their inability to obtain sufficient finance. Research limitations/implications: This research uses survey data, together with an understanding of the project finance process to extrapolate impacts on the residential development industry across Queensland. No regional or sub-market analysis is included. Future research will include subsequent surveys to track any loosening of credit policies over time and sub-market sector analysis. Practical implications: The inability to obtain project finance is identified as a key constraint to new housing supply. This research will inform policy makers and provide important quantitative evidence of the importance of availability of development finance in the housing supply chain. Social implications: Queensland is facing a supply shortfall, which if not corrected, may lead to upward pressure on house prices and falling housing affordability. Originality/value: There is very little academic research on development funding. This research is unique in linking bank lending criteria to new housing supply and demonstrating the impact on the development industry.

Integrating electrical vehicles to demand side response scheme in Queensland Australia

Depleting fossil fuel resources and increased accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly making electrical vehicles (EV) attractive option for the transportation sector. However uncontrolled random charging and discharging of EVs may aggravate the problems of an already stressed system during the peak demand and cause voltage problems during low demand. This paper develops a demand side response scheme for properly integrating EVs in the Electrical Network. The scheme enacted upon information on electricity market conditions regularly released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the internet. The scheme adopts Internet relays and solid state switches to cycle charging and discharging of EVs. Due to the pending time-of-use and real-price programs, financial benefits will represent driving incentives to consumers to implement the scheme. A wide-scale dissemination of the scheme is expected to mitigate excessive peaks on the electrical network with all associated technical, economic and social benefits.

"Money pouring out of its ears" : on the taxation of really profitable nonprofit organisations in Australia

Under current law Australia appears to be a tax haven for certain non-governmental institutions. Millions of ordinary business income may go untaxed and the deductibility for donations is unlimited - both are very generous tax measures in an international context. The basic problems of most Australian nonprofit organisations are not taxation; they are just that: nonprofit. Anybody interested in the non-governmental sector should be willing to face the question: What is an equitable tax treatment? The short-term tactic of ducking the question may not be the best or most beneficial long term strategy.

Waving or drowning? Managing resource constraints in entrepreneurial firm with bricolage as a response to the global financial crisis

These are challenging times for new entrepreneurial firms. The development of the Global Financial Crisis shook the very foundations of global markets and institutions that most firms relied on to do business (Claessens, et al., forthcoming). In the midst of institutional flux and resource constraints, entrepreneurial firms, which have been shown to make a range of contributions to the economy (van Praag & Versloot 2007) faced increasing constraints. The Australian Federal Government quickly implemented the Green Loan program in response to the financial crisis. Unfortunately, the green loans program was flawed with obsolete processes and information (Faulkner, 2011), further constraining new firms. Prior research provides few clues regarding how resource-constrained entrepreneurial firms deal with these institutional flaws within institutional change and how they might overcome these challenges and prosper. One promising theory that evaluates behavioural responses to constraints and institutional flaws is bricolage (Levi Strauss, 1967). Bricolage aligns with notions of resourcefulness: defined here as “making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities” (Baker and Nelson 2005: 333). Using three case studies, we consider how institutional flaws impact firm behaviours and illustrate the use of bricolage in attempts to reinforce, shape and change the GL program further extending bricolage domains of Baker and Nelson (2005).