Macronutrient composition of the diet and prospective weight change in participants of the EPIC-PANACEA study.

BACKGROUND The effect of the macronutrient composition of the usual diet on long term weight maintenance remains controversial. METHODS 373,803 subjects aged 25-70 years were recruited in 10 European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA project of the EPIC cohort. Diet was assessed at baseline using country-specific validated questionnaires and weight and height were measured at baseline and self-reported at follow-up in most centers. The association between weight change after 5 years of follow-up and the iso-energetic replacement of 5% of energy from one macronutrient by 5% of energy from another macronutrient was assessed using multivariate linear mixed-models. The risk of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to initial Body Mass Index. RESULTS A higher proportion of energy from fat at the expense of carbohydrates was not significantly associated with weight change after 5 years. However, a higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of fat was positively associated with weight gain. A higher proportion of energy from protein at the expense of carbohydrates was also positively associated with weight gain, especially when carbohydrates were rich in fibre. The association between percentage of energy from protein and weight change was slightly stronger in overweight participants, former smokers, participants ≥60 years old, participants underreporting their energy intake and participants with a prudent dietary pattern. Compared to diets with no more than 14% of energy from protein, diets with more than 22% of energy from protein were associated with a 23-24% higher risk of becoming overweight or obese in normal weight and overweight subjects at baseline. CONCLUSION Our results show that participants consuming an amount of protein above the protein intake recommended by the American Diabetes Association may experience a higher risk of becoming overweight or obese during adult life.

Development and validation of a risk score predicting substantial weight gain over 5 years in middle-aged European men and women.

BACKGROUND Identifying individuals at high risk of excess weight gain may help targeting prevention efforts at those at risk of various metabolic diseases associated with weight gain. Our aim was to develop a risk score to identify these individuals and validate it in an external population. METHODS We used lifestyle and nutritional data from 53°758 individuals followed for a median of 5.4 years from six centers of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to develop a risk score to predict substantial weight gain (SWG) for the next 5 years (derivation sample). Assuming linear weight gain, SWG was defined as gaining ≥ 10% of baseline weight during follow-up. Proportional hazards models were used to identify significant predictors of SWG separately by EPIC center. Regression coefficients of predictors were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Pooled coefficients were used to assign weights to each predictor. The risk score was calculated as a linear combination of the predictors. External validity of the score was evaluated in nine other centers of the EPIC study (validation sample). RESULTS Our final model included age, sex, baseline weight, level of education, baseline smoking, sports activity, alcohol use, and intake of six food groups. The model's discriminatory ability measured by the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.63-0.65) in the derivation sample and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.56-0.58) in the validation sample, with variation between centers. Positive and negative predictive values for the optimal cut-off value of ≥ 200 points were 9% and 96%, respectively. CONCLUSION The present risk score confidently excluded a large proportion of individuals from being at any appreciable risk to develop SWG within the next 5 years. Future studies, however, may attempt to further refine the positive prediction of the score.

The association between dietary energy density and type 2 diabetes in Europe: results from the EPIC-InterAct Study

BACKGROUND Observational studies implicate higher dietary energy density (DED) as a potential risk factor for weight gain and obesity. It has been hypothesized that DED may also be associated with risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but limited evidence exists. Therefore, we investigated the association between DED and risk of T2D in a large prospective study with heterogeneity of dietary intake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A case-cohort study was nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC) study of 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person years of follow-up, identifying 12,403 incident diabetes cases and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. DED was calculated as energy (kcal) from foods (except beverages) divided by the weight (gram) of foods estimated from dietary questionnaires. Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted by country. Risk estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis and heterogeneity was evaluated. Estimated mean (sd) DED was 1.5 (0.3) kcal/g among cases and subcohort members, varying across countries (range 1.4-1.7 kcal/g). After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, energy intake from beverages and misreporting of dietary intake, no association was observed between DED and T2D (HR 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93-1.13), which was consistent across countries (I(2) = 2.9%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In this large European case-cohort study no association between DED of solid and semi-solid foods and risk of T2D was observed. However, despite the fact that there currently is no conclusive evidence for an association between DED and T2DM risk, choosing low energy dense foods should be promoted as they support current WHO recommendations to prevent chronic diseases.

Neurological complications of infective endocarditis: risk factors, outcome, and impact of cardiac surgery: a multicenter observational study.

BACKGROUND The purpose of this study was to assess the incidence of neurological complications in patients with infective endocarditis, the risk factors for their development, their influence on the clinical outcome, and the impact of cardiac surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on a multicenter cohort of 1345 consecutive episodes of left-sided infective endocarditis from 8 centers in Spain. Cox regression models were developed to analyze variables predictive of neurological complications and associated mortality. Three hundred forty patients (25%) experienced such complications: 192 patients (14%) had ischemic events, 86 (6%) had encephalopathy/meningitis, 60 (4%) had hemorrhages, and 2 (1%) had brain abscesses. Independent risk factors associated with all neurological complications were vegetation size ≥3 cm (hazard ratio [HR] 1.91), Staphylococcus aureus as a cause (HR 2.47), mitral valve involvement (HR 1.29), and anticoagulant therapy (HR 1.31). This last variable was particularly related to a greater incidence of hemorrhagic events (HR 2.71). Overall mortality was 30%, and neurological complications had a negative impact on outcome (45% of deaths versus 24% in patients without these complications; P<0.01), although only moderate to severe ischemic stroke (HR 1.63) and brain hemorrhage (HR 1.73) were significantly associated with a poorer prognosis. Antimicrobial treatment reduced (by 33% to 75%) the risk of neurological complications. In patients with hemorrhage, mortality was higher when surgery was performed within 4 weeks of the hemorrhagic event (75% versus 40% in later surgery). CONCLUSIONS Moderate to severe ischemic stroke and brain hemorrhage were found to have a significant negative impact on the outcome of infective endocarditis. Early appropriate antimicrobial treatment is critical, and transitory discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy should be considered.

Avaluació de programes formatius de seguretat viària i la reincidència posterior

Els programes formatius d’educació viària són una mesura penal alternativa que s’imposa habitualment als autors dels delictes relacionats amb el trànsit (articles 379 i següents del Codi Penal) per suspendre o substituir la pena de presó. Aquests programes tenen un doble objectiu: aconseguir reduir a curt termini la sinistralitat viària i propiciar un canvi cultural permanent en la conducció. L’objectiu principal d’aquesta recerca va ser identificar les característiques comunes dels infractors de trànsit que fan aquest tipus d’intervenció, conèixer els factors de risc associats a aquests infractors i en quina mesura l’estat psicològic és un factor de risc en l’estil de conducció. També es volia determinar si hi havia diferències entre les entitats que impartien la formació, avaluar l’efectivitat d’aquests programes en l’estil de conducció dels participants en finalitzar el curs i conèixer la reincidència dels seus participants i la seva relació amb l’estat i el canvi de les variables de l’estudi. La mostra va comptar amb 278 participants voluntaris del total de 354 infractors de trànsit que van realitzar un programa formatiu entre l’1 d’abril de 2009 i el 13 de febrer de 2010. D’aquests, un total de 100 participants van autoritzar a ser contactats novament entre el desembre del 2011 i el gener del 2012, per mirar la reincidència. Les fonts d’informació van ser els qüestionaris passats als infractors i el buidatge de la base de dades d’execució penal del Departament de Justícia, amb informació judicial i personal i el seguiment dels usuaris fins a dos anys després d’haver finalitzat el curs formatiu, per saber si havien tornat a reincidir en el mateix delicte.

Evaluación de programas formativos de seguridad vial y su reincidencia posterior

Los programas formativos de educación vial son una medida penal alternativa que se impone habitualmente a los autores de delitos relacionados con el tráfico (artículos 379 y siguientes del Código Penal) para suspender o sustituir la pena de prisión. Estos programas tienen un doble objetivo: conseguir reducir a corto plazo la siniestralidad vial y propiciar un cambio cultural permanente en la conducción. El objetivo principal de esta investigación fue identificar las características comunes de los infractores de tráfico que han de hacer este tipo de intervención y conocer sus factores de riesgo. También se estudiaron las diferencias entre las entidades que imparten los cursos formativos, se evaluó su efectividad y se estudió la reincidencia de los conductores. En total participaron 278 infractores que realizaron un programa formativo entre el 1 de abril de 2009 y el 13 de febrero de 2010 y se les siguió hasta enero de 2012.

Prevalence of and risk factors for biliary carriage of bacteria showing worrisome and unexpected resistance traits.

Data on biliary carriage of bacteria and, specifically, of bacteria with worrisome and unexpected resistance traits (URB) are lacking. A prospective study (April 2010 to December 2011) was performed that included all patients admitted for <48 h for elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy in a Spanish hospital. Bile samples were cultured and epidemiological/clinical data recorded. Logistic regression models (stepwise) were performed using bactobilia or bactobilia by URB as dependent variables. Models (P < 0.001) showing the highest R(2) values were considered. A total of 198 patients (40.4% males; age, 55.3 ± 17.3 years) were included. Bactobilia was found in 44 of them (22.2%). The presence of bactobilia was associated (R(2) Cox, 0.30) with previous biliary endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) (odds ratio [OR], 8.95; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.96 to 27.06; P < 0.001), previous admission (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.10 to 7.24; P = 0.031), and age (OR, 1.09 per year; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.12; P < 0.001). Ten out of the 44 (22.7%) patients with bactobilia carried URB: 1 Escherichia coli isolate (CTX-M), 1 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolate (OXA-48), 3 high-level gentamicin-resistant enterococci, 1 vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus isolate, 3 Enterobacter cloacae strains, and 1 imipenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain. Bactobilia by URB (versus those by non-URB) was only associated (R(2) Cox, 0.19) with previous ERCP (OR, 11.11; 95% CI, 1.98 to 62.47; P = 0.006). For analyses of patients with bactobilia by URB versus the remaining patients, previous ERCP (OR, 35.284; 95% CI, 5.320 to 234.016; P < 0.001), previous intake of antibiotics (OR, 7.200; 95% CI, 0.962 to 53.906; P = 0.050), and age (OR, 1.113 per year of age; 95% CI, 1.028 to 1.206; P = 0.009) were associated with bactobilia by URB (R(2) Cox, 0.19; P < 0.001). Previous antibiotic exposure (in addition to age and previous ERCP) was a risk driver for bactobilia by URB. This may have implications in prophylactic/therapeutic measures.

Individual, family and environmental factors associated with pediatric excess weight in Spain: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND There is a growing worldwide trend of obesity in children. Identifying the causes and modifiable factors associated with child obesity is important in order to design effective public health strategies.Our objective was to provide empirical evidence of the association that some individual and environmental factors may have with child excess weight. METHOD A cross-sectional study was performed using multi-stage probability sampling of 978 Spanish children aged between 8 and 17 years, with objectively measured height and weight, along with other individual, family and neighborhood variables. Crude and adjusted odds ratios were calculated. RESULTS In 2012, 4 in 10 children were either overweight or obese with a higher prevalence amongst males and in the 8-12 year age group. Child obesity was associated negatively with the socio-economic status of the adult responsible for the child's diet, OR 0.78 (CI95% 0.59-1.00), girls OR 0.75 (CI95% 0.57-0.99), older age of the child (0.41; CI95% 0.31-0.55), daily breakfast (OR 0.59; p = 0.028) and half an hour or more of physical activity every day. No association was found for neighborhood variables relating to perceived neighborhood quality and safety. CONCLUSION This study identifies potential modifiable factors such as physical activity, daily breakfast and caregiver education as areas for public health policies. To be successful, an intervention should take into account both individual and family factors when designing prevention strategies to combat the worldwide epidemic of child excess weight.

Nuevos datos sobre fibrilación auricular, observaciones al estudio OFRECE. Respuesta

We appreciate the interest shown by Vidal-Pérez et al. in our article published recently in Revista Española de Cardiología,1 which provides us with an opportunity to present some interesting additional information not included in the article itself. We agree on the importance of knowing the thromboembolic risk of the population included in the OFRECE study, both for patients with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and for the general population. In our study, the mean (standard deviation) CHADS2 and CHAD2DS2-VASc of patients with atrial fibrillation was 2.3 (1.3) and 3.8 (1.6), respectively. In the general population, the mean (standard deviation) CHADS2 and CHAD2DS2-VASc of patients with atrial fibrillation was 0.8 (1) and 1.8 (1.5), respectively. The distribution of both scales is in agreement with that of the Val-FAAP and AFABE studies,2, 3 although the similarity is greater in the 2 population-based studies (Figure). These data are, we believe, relevant because they show that the level of risk in the population with atrial fibrillation is very similar to that of the populations included in clinical trials with new oral anticoagulants. In addition, an increasing body of evidence suggests that thromboembolic risk, as measured with these scales in the population without a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, is associated with the onset of events.

The systemic lupus erythematosus IRF5 risk haplotype is associated with systemic sclerosis

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a fibrotic autoimmune disease in which the genetic component plays an important role. One of the strongest SSc association signals outside the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region corresponds to interferon (IFN) regulatory factor 5 (IRF5), a major regulator of the type I IFN pathway. In this study we aimed to evaluate whether three different haplotypic blocks within this locus, which have been shown to alter the protein function influencing systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) susceptibility, are involved in SSc susceptibility and clinical phenotypes. For that purpose, we genotyped one representative single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) of each block (rs10488631, rs2004640, and rs4728142) in a total of 3,361 SSc patients and 4,012 unaffected controls of Caucasian origin from Spain, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and United Kingdom. A meta-analysis of the allele frequencies was performed to analyse the overall effect of these IRF5 genetic variants on SSc. Allelic combination and dependency tests were also carried out. The three SNPs showed strong associations with the global disease (rs4728142: P  = 1.34×10(-8), OR  = 1.22, CI 95%  = 1.14-1.30; rs2004640: P  = 4.60×10(-7), OR  = 0.84, CI 95%  = 0.78-0.90; rs10488631: P  = 7.53×10(-20), OR  = 1.63, CI 95%  = 1.47-1.81). However, the association of rs2004640 with SSc was not independent of rs4728142 (conditioned P  = 0.598). The haplotype containing the risk alleles (rs4728142*A-rs2004640*T-rs10488631*C: P  = 9.04×10(-22), OR  = 1.75, CI 95%  = 1.56-1.97) better explained the observed association (likelihood P-value  = 1.48×10(-4)), suggesting an additive effect of the three haplotypic blocks. No statistical significance was observed in the comparisons amongst SSc patients with and without the main clinical characteristics. Our data clearly indicate that the SLE risk haplotype also influences SSc predisposition, and that this association is not sub-phenotype-specific.

Influence of gender on long-term prognosis of patients with chronic heart failure seen in heart failure clinics.

BACKGROUND Controversy exists concerning the influence of gender in the prognosis of patients with heart failure and no evidence is available from specific heart failure clinics. HYPOTHESIS Women with ambulatory heart failure are managed differently than men, although their prognosis might be better than men. METHODS AND RESULTS We analyzed the clinical characteristics, complementary test results, treatment, and prognosis in 4720 patients with chronic heart failure seen in 62 specialized clinics forming part of a multicenter registry during a mean follow-up of 40 months. The mean age was 65 +/- 12 years and 71% were men. The men were younger than the women and more often had a history of hyperlipidemia and ischemic heart disease. The men had a more advanced heart failure New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (III-IV) than the women and a greater frequency of systolic ventricular dysfunction. The men more often received treatment with beta-blockers, vasodilators, and antiplatelet aggregators as well as higher mean doses as compared with the women. The overall survival after the follow-up was similar for both genders, although the women had lower rates of survival free of admission for heart failure. CONCLUSIONS Despite the mortality of women and men with heart failure being similar, the rate of readmission for heart failure is greater in women in specialized heart failure clinics. These results may be associated with the pharmacological treatment differences observed.

Relevant gender differences in epidemiological profile, exposure to first antiretroviral regimen and survival in the Spanish AIDS Research Network Cohort.

BACKGROUND The possible differences in the disease spectrum and prognosis of HIV infection in women and men is a major point of concern. Women are under-represented in randomized clinical trials and in some cohorts. Discordant results have often been obtained depending on the setting. METHODS We assessed gender differences in clinical and epidemiological features, antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure and survival in two multicentre cohorts of HIV-positive subjects in Spain: CoRIS-MD and CoRIS. Competing risk regression models were used to assess gender effect on time to start ART and time to first ART change, and a Cox regression model to estimate gender effect on time to death. RESULTS Between January 1996 and December 2008, 1,953 women and 6,072 men naive to ART at study entry were included. The trend analysis over time showed the percentage of women in the younger (<20 years) and older (>50 years) strata increased significantly (P<0.001) from 0.5% and 1.8% in 1996 to 4.9% and 4.2% in 2008, respectively. By competing risk analysis women started ART earlier than men (adjusted subhazard ratio [ASHR] 1.21, 95% CI 1.11, 1.31) in CoRIS cohort, while in CoRIS-MD none of these differences were observed. In both cohorts women showed a shorter time to the first ART change (ASHR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01, 1.19). Pregnancy and patient's/physician's decisions as reasons for changing were more frequent in women than in men in CoRIS. In the Cox regression model, gender was not associated with differences in survival. CONCLUSIONS In two large cohorts in Spain, we observed relevant gender differences in epidemiological characteristics and antiretroviral exposure outcomes, while survival differences were not attributable to gender.

Preinfarction angina prior to first myocardial infarction does not influence long-term prognosis: a retrospective study with subgroup analysis in elderly and diabetic patients.

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS Although prodromal angina occurring shortly before an acute myocardial infarction (MI) has protective effects against in-hospital complications, this effect has not been well documented after initial hospitalization, especially in older or diabetic patients. We examined whether angina 1 week before a first MI provides protection in these patients. METHODS A total of 290 consecutive patients, 143 elderly (>64 years of age) and 147 adults (<65 years of age), 68 of whom were diabetic (23.4%) and 222 nondiabetic (76.6%), were examined to assess the effect of preceding angina on long-term prognosis (56 months) after initial hospitalization for a first MI. RESULTS No significant differences were found in long-term complications after initial hospitalization in these adult and elderly patients according to whether or not they had prodromal angina (44.4% with angina vs 45.4% without in adults; 45.5% vs 58% in elderly, P < 0.2). Nor were differences found according to their diabetic status (61.5% with angina vs 72.7% without in diabetics; 37.3% vs 38.3% in nondiabetics; P = 0.4). CONCLUSION The occurrence of angina 1 week before a first MI does not confer long-term protection against cardiovascular complications after initial hospitalization in adult or elderly patients, whether or not they have diabetes.

Gene-lifestyle interaction and type 2 diabetes: the EPIC interact case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS The InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction  = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction  = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction  = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score. CONCLUSIONS The relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.

Comparación de los resultados a largo plazo de cirugía y valvuloplastia percutánea para el tratamiento de la estenosis pulmonar aislada.

Se compararon en una población de 211 pacientes con estenosis pulmonar reparada el tratamiento quirúrgico y percutáneo, las complicaciones y reintervenciones a largo plazo y predictores de las mismas. Los pacientes del grupo quirúrgico se intervinieron de forma más precoz, presentaban una anatomía más compleja, más síntomas y peor perfil hemodinámico. El tiempo medio de seguimiento global fue de 22 ± 10,21 años y no se observaron diferencias significativas en cuanto a la necesidad de reintervención. La aparición de complicaciones no difirió entre los dos grupos. Una mayor edad en el momento de la cirugía, defectos congénitos asociados y síntomas prequirúrgicos fueron factores de riesgo para padecer complicaciones mayores. Por lo tanto, a pesar de que la evolución a largo plazo es globalmente buena, la aparición de complicaciones y la necesidad de reintervención a lo largo del seguimiento no es despreciable y sigue reportándose a pesar de la introducción de la valvuloplastia percutánea como tratamiento de primera línea.