A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

1. Expert knowledge continues to gain recognition as a valuable source of information in a wide range of research applications. Despite recent advances in defining expert knowledge, comparatively little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors, and thereby, to quantify an individual’s expertise. 2. We present a systems approach to describing expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their interrelationships, and allows quantification of an individual’s expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For the purpose of illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with professional taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network were determined by a second set of senior taxonomists. This second set of experts (i.e. supra-experts) also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was then assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states in the discipline of taxonomy. Hypothetical career states were used to incorporate the greatest possible differences in career states and provide an opportunity to test the model against known inputs. 3. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was remarkably good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had built into them. 4. This systems approach provides a novel way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it is desirable to understand components of expertise.

Designing a seasonality application to support urban agriculture practice

This position paper describes the work in progress towards the goal of building a technical prototype that enables users – those who have little or no knowledge and experience engaging in urban agriculture – to receive information personalised to their location and situation, and allow them to ask questions and share experiences with others. We describe the design process thus far, informed by a survey and a workshop with experts in the field, before concluding with the future direction of this work.

A process-oriented approach to supporting Off-site Manufacture in construction projects

It is well-known that the use of off-site manufacture (OSM) techniques can assist in timely completion of a construction project though the utilisation of such techniques may have other disadvantages. Currently, OSM uptake within the Australian construction industry is limited. To successfully incorporate OSM practices within a construction project, it is crucial to understand the impact of OSM adoption on the processes used during a construction project. This paper presents how a systematic process-oriented approach may be able to support OSM utilisation within a construction project. Process modelling, analysis and automation techniques which are well-known within the Business Process Management (BPM) discipline have been applied to develop a collection of construction process models that represent the end-to-end generic construction value chain. The construction value chain enables researchers to identify key activities, resources, data, and stakeholders involved in construction processes in each defined construction phase. The collection of construction process models is then used as a basis for identification of potential OSM intervention points in collaboration with domain experts from the Australian construction industry. This ensures that the resulting changes reflect the needs of various stakeholders within the construction industry and have relevance in practice. Based on the input from the domain experts, these process models are further refined and operational requirements are taken into account to develop a prototype process automation (workflow) system that can support and coordinate OSM-related process activities. The resulting workflow system also has the potential to integrate with other IT solutions used within the construction industry (e.g., BIM, Acconex). As such, the paper illustrates the role that process-oriented thinking can play in assisting OSM adoption within the industry.

Monitoring and benchmarking government policies and actions to improve the healthiness of food environments : a proposed Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index

Government action is essential to increase the healthiness of food environments and reduce obesity, diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and their related inequalities. This paper proposes a monitoring framework to assess government policies and actions for creating healthy food environments. Recommendations from relevant authoritative organizations and expert advisory groups for reducing obesity and NCDs were examined, and pertinent components were incorporated into a comprehensive framework for monitoring government policies and actions. A Government Healthy Food Environment Policy Index (Food-EPI) was developed, which comprises a ‘policy’ component with seven domains on specific aspects of food environments, and an ‘infrastructure support’ component with seven domains to strengthen systems to prevent obesity and NCDs. These were revised through a week-long consultation process with international experts. Examples of good practice statements are proposed within each domain, and these will evolve into benchmarks established by governments at the forefront of creating and implementing food policies for good health. A rating process is proposed to assess a government's level of policy implementation towards good practice. The Food-EPI will be pre-tested and piloted in countries of varying size and income levels. The benchmarking of government policy implementation has the potential to catalyse greater action to reduce obesity and NCDs.

Could MOOCs answer the problems of teaching AQF required skills in Australian tertiary programmes?

From 2015, Australian universities will be required to demonstrate that their programmes explicitly teach, and assess achievement of, knowledge and skills and the application of both as specified by the Australian Qualifications Framework (AQF). Over the last twenty years, the sector has applied significant effort and resource to embedding the development of skills through tertiary programmes. Despite these national and institutional efforts, employer and industry concerns remain about the quality of graduate skills. The authors propose a ‘massive open online course’ (MOOC) approach to teaching and assessing AQF required skills. As an example the paper identifies the skills modules that would need to be developed by experts in each skill area for AQF level 9 master’s by coursework programmes. The proposed MOOC would include assessment tasks and rubrics allowing students to develop and demonstrate achievement of the AQF required skills. The assessment tasks could be used by institutions to provide evidence of attainment of coursework master’s standards.

Acquisition of expertise in cricket fast bowling : perceptions of expert players and coaches

Objectives: Experiential knowledge of elite athletes and coaches was investigated to reveal insights on expertise acquisition in cricket fast bowling. Design: Twenty-one past or present elite cricket fast bowlers and coaches of national or international level were interviewed using an in-depth, open-ended, semi-structured approach. Methods: Participants were asked about specific factors which they believed were markers of fast bowling expertise potential. Of specific interest was the relative importance of each potential component of fast bowling expertise and how components interacted or developed over time. Results: The importance of intrinsic motivation early in development was highlighted, along with physical, psychological and technical attributes. Results supported a multiplicative and interactive complex systems model of talent development in fast bowling, in which component weightings were varied due to individual differences in potential experts. Dropout rates in potential experts were attributed to misconceived current talent identification programmes and coaching practices, early maturation and physical attributes, injuries and lack of key psychological attributes and skills. Conclusions: Data are consistent with a dynamical systems model of expertise acquisition in fast bowling, with numerous trajectories available for talent development. Further work is needed to relate experiential and theoretical knowledge on expertise in other sports.

Putting people in planning: participatory democracy, community building and social inclusion

Like other Western nations, since the nineteenth century Australia has been a representative democracy, in which citizens elect parliamentary representatives to make decisions and develop policies on their behalf (see chapter 5). These representatives are supported in their decision making by an ‘arm’s-length’, ‘techno-bureaucratic administration’, which includes experts such as environmental planners (Fung and Wright 2003, p. 3). However, as the issues for decision-making become increasingly complex, and societies increasingly diverse, the idea of citizen participation in decision-making is ever more accepted. There is now a significant body of political theory arguing for a more participatory model of democracy (participatory democracy), a model that strives to create opportunities for all members of a society to contribute meaningfully to decisions about the matters affecting their lives.

The local library across the digital and physical city : opportunities for economic development

This paper considers the role of the public library as a community hub, engagement space, and entrepreneurial incubator in the context of the city, city governance, and local government planning. It considers this role from the perspective of library experts and their future visions for libraries in a networked knowledge economy. Public libraries (often operated by or on behalf of local governments) potentially play a pivotal role for local governments in positioning communities within the global digital network. Fourteen qualitative interviews with library experts informed the study which investigates how the relationship between digital technology and the physical library space can potentially support the community to develop innovative, collaborative environments for transitioning to a digital future. The study found that libraries can capitalise on their position as community hubs for two purposes: first, to build vibrant community networks and forge economic links across urban localities; and second, to cross the digital divide and act as places of innovation and lifelong learning. Libraries provide a specific combination of community and technology spaces and have significant tangible connection points in the digital age. The paper further discusses the potential benefits for libraries in using ICT networks and infrastructure, such as the National Broadband Network in Australia. These networks could facilitate greater use of library assets and community knowledge, which, in turn, could assist knowledge economies and regional prosperity.

The association between socioeconomic status and depression in Vietnamese adults : pilot study

This study examined the prevalence of depressive symptoms and elucidated the causal pathway between socioeconomic status and depression in a community in the central region of Vietnam. The study used a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods. Indepth interviews were applied with two local psychiatric experts and ten residents for qualitative research. A cross sectional survey with structured interview technique was implemented with 100 residents in the pilot quantitative survey. The Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D) was applied to valuate depressive symptoms ( CES-D score over 21) and depression ( CESD core over 25). Ordinary Least Squares Regression following the three steps of Baron and Kenny’s framework was employed for testing mediation models. There was a strong social gradient with respect to depressive symptoms. People with higher education levels reported fewer depressive symptoms (lower CES-D scores). Incomes were also inversely associated with depressive symptoms, but only the ones at the bottom of the quartile income. Low level and unstable individuals in terms of occupation were associated with higher depressive symptoms compared with the highest occupation group. Employment status showed the strongest gradient with respect to its impact on the burden of depressive symptoms compared with other indicators of SES. Findings from this pilot study suggest a pattern on the negative association between socioeconomic status and depression in Vietnamese adults.

Teacher Evidence Matrix : an evaluation using multiple lines of evidence

Welcome to the Teacher evidence matrix. This matrix is designed for highly qualified discipline experts to evaluate their teaching in a systematic manner. The primary purpose of the Teacher evidence matrix is to provide a tool that an academic staff member at university can annually review their teaching. The annual review will result in you being ready for performance, planning and review; promotion; awards; or employment application. This tool is designed for individual use and will lead to an action plan for implementation.

Food literacy : what is it and does it influence what we eat?

"Food literacy" has emerged as a term to describe the everyday practicalities needed for healthy eating. It is increasingly used in policy, practice, research and in the public arena. This thesis empirically defined the term, identified its components, and developed models of its relationship to nutrition and health. Food literacy was examined from two perspectives; that of food experts and that of individuals using the case study of young people experiencing disadvantage. The research provides a common language and conceptualisation of food literacy which is being used by governments, policy-makers and practitioners to guide investment and practice.

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Communities and Technologies

The Communities and Technologies 2013 conference received 46 submissions for full papers and 12 submissions for research in progress papers. From these submissions, 17 papers were selected to appear at the conference (29%). All submitted papers were subjected to double blind peer review by an independent international program committee of 51 experts.

Career Development in Childhood and Adolescence

"In the past few years, many career theorists have noted the dearth of literature in the area of career development in childhood and adolescence. A growing need for integrating theory and research on the early stages of vocational development within a systemic, life-span developmental approach has been articulated. This volume, the first book dedicated to career development of children and adolescents, provides a broad and comprehensive overview of the current knowledge about the key career processes that take place in this age group. Each of the eighteen chapters represents an in-depth examination of a specific aspect of career development with a focus on integrating modern career theory and ongoing research and further developing theory-practice connections in understanding child and adolescent career behaviour. Twenty-six authors, leading experts from eight countries, provide a state-of-the-art summary of the current thinking in the field and outline directions for future empirical work and practice."--publisher website

Major issues in business process management : an expert perspective

Study Approach The results presented in this report are part of a larger global study on the major issues in BPM. Only one part of the larger study is reported here, viz. interviews with BPM experts. Interviews of BPM tool vendors together with focus group studies involving user organizations were conducted in parallel and set the groundwork for the identification of BPM issues on a global scale. Through this multi-method approach, we identify four distinct sets of outcomes. First, as is the focus of this report, we identify the BPM issues as perceived by BPM experts. Second, the research design allows us to gain insight into the opinions of organizations deploying BPM solutions. Third, an understanding of organizations’ misconceptions of BPM technologies, as confronted by BPM tool vendors, is obtained. Last, we seek to gain an understanding of BPM issues on a global scale, together with knowledge of matters of concern. This final outcome is aimed to produce an industry-driven research agenda that will inform practitioners and, in particular, the research community worldwide on issues and challenges that are prevalent or emerging in BPM and related areas...