On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999 – August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly timevarying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads’ determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.

Relationship between cigarette smoking and abdominal obesity

Background: Although smokers tend to have a lower body-mass index (BMI) than non-smokers, smoking may affect body fat (BF) distribution. Some studies have assessed the association between smoking, BMI and waist circumference (WC), but, to our knowledge, no population-based studies assessed the relation between smoking and BF composition. We assessed the association between amount of cigarette smoking, BMI, WC and BF composition. Method: Data was analysed from a cross-sectional population-based study including 6'187 Caucasians aged 32-76 and living in Switzerland. Height, weight and WC were measured. BF, expressed in percent of total body weight, was measured by electrical bioimpedance. Abdominal obesity was defined as a WC 0102 cm for men and 088 cm for women and normal WC as <94 cm for men and <80 cm for women. In men, excess BF was defined as %BF 028.1, 28.7, 30.6 and 32.6 for age groups 32-44, 45-54, 55-64 and 65-76, respectively; the corresponding values for women were 35.9, 36.5, 40.5 and 44.4. Cigarette smoking was assessed using a self-reported questionnaire. Results: 29.3% of men and 25.0% of women were smokers. Prevalence of obesity, abdominal obesity, and excess of BF was 16.9% and 26.6% and 14.2% in men and 15.0%, 33.0% and 27.5% in women, respectively. Smokers had lower age-adjusted mean WC and percent of BF compared to non-smokers. However, among smokers, mean age-adjusted WC and BF increased with the number of cigarettes smoked per day: among light (1-10 cig/day), moderate (11-20) and heavy smokers (>20), mean ± SE %BF was 22.4 ± 0.3, 23.1 ± 0.3 and 23.5 ± 0.4 for men, and 31.9 ± 0.3, 32.6 ± 0.3 and 32.9 ± 0.4 for women, respectively. Mean WC was 92.9 ± 0.6, 94.0 ± 0.5 and 96.0 ± 0.6 cm for men, and 80.2 ± 0.5, 81.3 ± 0.5 and 83.3 ± 0.7 for women, respectively. Compared with light smokers, the age-adjusted odds ratio (95% Confidence Interval) for excess of BF was 1.04 (0.58 to 1.85) for moderate smokers and 1.06 (0.57 to 1.99) for heavy smokers in men (p-trend = 0.9), and 1.35 (0.92 to 1.99) and 2.26 (1.38 to 3.72), respectively, in women (p-trend = 0.04). Odds ratio for abdominal obesity vs. normal WC was 1.32 (0.81 to 2.15) for moderate smokers and 1.95 (1.16 to 3.27) for heavy smokers in men (p-trend <0.01), and 1.15 (0.79 to 1.69) and 2.36 (1.41 to 3.93) in women (p-trend = 0.03). Conclusion: WC and BF were positively and dose-dependently associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day in women, whereas only WC was dose dependently and significantly associated with the amount of cigarettes smoked per day in men. This suggests that heavy smokers, especially women, are more likely to have an excess of BF and to accumulate BF in the abdomen compared to lighter smokers.

Relationship between Health-Related Quality of Life, Pain, and Functional Disability in Neuropathic Pain Patients with Failed Back Surgery Syndrome.

ABSTRACT Objectives: Patients with failed back surgery syndrome (FBSS) and chronic neuropathic pain experience levels of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) that are considerably lower than those reported in other areas of chronic pain. The aim of this article was to quantify the extent to which reductions in (leg and back) pain and disability over time translate into improvements in generic HRQoL as measured by the EuroQoL-5D and SF-36 instruments. Methods: Using data from the multinational Prospective, Randomized, Controlled, Multicenter Study of Patients with Failed Back Surgery Syndrome trial, we explore the relationship between generic HRQoL-assessed using two instruments often used in clinical trials (i.e., the SF-36 and EuroQol-5D)-and disease-specific outcome measures (i.e., Oswestry disability index [ODI], leg and back pain visual analog scale [VAS]) in neuropathic patients with FBSS. Results: In our sample of 100 FBSS patients, generic HRQoL was moderately associated with ODI (correlation coefficient: -0.462 to -0.638) and mildly associated with leg pain VAS (correlation coefficient: -0.165 to -0.436). The multilevel regression analysis results indicate that functional ability (as measured by the ODI) is significantly associated with HRQoL, regardless of the generic HRQoL instrument used. On the other hand, changes over time in leg pain were significantly associated with changes in the EuroQoL-5D and physical component summary scores, but not with the mental component summary score. Conclusions: Reduction in leg pain and functional disability is statistically significantly associated with improvements in generic HRQoL. This is the first study to investigate the longitudinal relationship between generic and disease-specific HRQoL of neuropathic pain patients with FBSS, using multinational data.

Are relationship patterns with significant others reenacted with the therapist?: a study of early transference reactions.

This study examines how patients' relationship patterns are reenacted with the therapist during the first sessions of psychotherapy. Forty (N = 40) outpatients treated with a Brief Psychodynamic Intervention were included in the study. Their narratives of relationship episodes with significant others (e.g., mother, father, romantic partner, colleagues) were compared with relationship episodes with their therapist using the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme method. The Core Conflictual Relationship Theme focuses on 3 aspects of patients' relationship narratives: what the patient wants from others or from self; how others react to his/her wish; and how the patient consequently reacts. Results showed that 60% of patients display similar relationship patterns with their therapist and with significant others. The patterns that were reenacted with the therapist were not the most pervasive ones but were similar to those found in relationship episodes involving parents or romantic partners. These findings provide some support for the clinical concept of repetition of internalized relational patterns with the therapist very early in psychotherapy. Clinical implications are discussed.

Does Internationalization Alter the R&D-Productivity Relationship?

R&D investment is an important driver of productivity gains. However, firms differ in their ability to appropiate the returns to their R&D efforts. This paper analyses to what extent firm's internationalization influences the endogenous relation between R&D and productivity. In particular, we assess the contribution of R&D to productivity for a panel of UK firms that differ in their degree of internationalization. We find that, on average, multinationals obtain higher gains from their investment in R&D. However, the influence of internationalization on the contribution of R&D to productivity varies along the distribution of the returns to R&D. Keywords: R&D, Multinationals, Productivity. JEL Codes: C14, D24, F23.

Antigenic differences among Leishmania amazonensis isolates and their relationship with distinct clinical forms of the disease

Immunoblot analysis was used to investigate antigenic differences among clinical isolates of Leishmania amazonensis and their role in the etiology of the diseases. Western blots of promastigote homogenates were analyzed with either monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) specific for the L. mexicana complex (M-4, M-6, M-9 and M-11) or polyclonal sera from L. amazonensis infected patients with the various forms of clinical disease. In the case of the MAbs, no significant variation was observed among the strains of L. amazonensis, isolated from cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), mucocutaneous leishmaniasis (MCL), diffuse cutaneous leishmaniasis (DCL), visceral leishmaniasis (VL) or post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in either the relative morbility (Mr) or the quantitative amount (intensity) of the antigenic determinats. In the case of the sera of the infected patients, the patterns of antigenic reactivity of these strains revealed that, despite showing the presence of shared antigens, differences were observed between some of the antigenic components of the various isolates of L. amazonensis that were recognized by a single serum. Differences were also demonstrated between the antigenic determinants of a single isolate of L. amazonensis that were recognized by the different patient's sera. No apparent association was consistently found, however, between the Mr components identified in these isolates and clinical form of the disease or the geographical area of isolation. In addition, the spectrum of antigens recognized by the sera from patients with the same clinical form were not identical; although in some instances, similar Mr antigens were shared. These results indicate that isolates of L. amazonensis are not antigenically identical (homogeneous) and that the immune responses (antibodies) observed among infected patients are heterogeneous.

Relationship between technological progress, capital elasticity and emissions of industrial pollutants for the production sectors in Catalonia

As is known, the Kyoto Protocol proposes to reinforce national policies for emission reduction and, furthermore, to cooperate with other contracting parties. In this context, it would be necessary to assess these emissions, both in general and specifically, by pollutants and/or among productive sectors. The object of this paper is precisely to estimate the polluting emissions of industrial origin in Catalonia in the year 2001, in a multivariate context which explicitly allows a distinction to be made between the polluter and/or the productive sector causing this emission. Six pollutants considered, four directly related to greenhouse effect. A multi-level model, with two levels, pollutants and productive sectors, was specified. Both technological progress and elasticity of capital were introduced as random effects. Hence, it has been permitted that these coefficients vary according to one or other level. The most important finding in this paper is that elasticity of capital has been estimated as very non-elastic, with a range which varies between 0.162 (the paper industry) and 0.556 (commerce). In fact, and generally speaking, the greater capital the sector has, the less elasticity of capital has been estimated. Key words: Kyoto protocol, multilevel model, technological progress

Which firms want PhDs? The effect of the university-industry relationship on the PhD labour market

PhD graduates hold the highest education degree, are trained to conduct research and can be considered a key element in the creation, commercialization and diffusion of innovations. The impact of PhDs on innovation and economic development takes place through several channels such as the accumulation of scientific capital stock, the enhancement of technology transfers and the promotion of cooperation relationships in innovation processes. Although the placement of PhDs in industry provides a very important mechanism for transmitting knowledge from universities to firms, information about the characteristics of the firms that employ PhDs is very scarce. The goal of this paper is to improve understanding of the determinants of the demand for PhDs in the private sector. Three main potential determinants of the demand for PhDs are considered: cooperation between firms and universities, R&D activities of firms and several characteristics of firms, size, sector, productivity and age. The results from the econometric analysis show that cooperation between firms and universities encourages firms to recruit PhDs and point to the existence of accumulative effects in the hiring of PhD graduates.

Effects of unilateral motor cortex lesion on ipsilesional hand's reach and grasp performance in monkeys: relationship with recovery in the contralesional hand.

Manual dexterity, a prerogative of primates, is under the control of the corticospinal (CS) tract. Because 90-95% of CS axons decussate, it is assumed that this control is exerted essentially on the contralateral hand. Consistently, unilateral lesion of the hand representation in the motor cortex is followed by a complete loss of dexterity of the contralesional hand. During the months following lesion, spontaneous recovery of manual dexterity takes place to a highly variable extent across subjects, although largely incomplete. In the present study, we tested the hypothesis that after a significant postlesion period, manual performance in the ipsilesional hand is correlated with the extent of functional recovery in the contralesional hand. To this aim, ten adult macaque monkeys were subjected to permanent unilateral motor cortex lesion. Monkeys' manual performance was assessed for each hand during several months postlesion, using our standard behavioral test (modified Brinkman board task) that provides a quantitative measure of reach and grasp ability. The ipsilesional hand's performance was found to be significantly enhanced over the long term (100-300 days postlesion) in six of ten monkeys, with the six exhibiting the best, though incomplete, recovery of the contralesional hand. There was a statistically significant correlation (r = 0.932; P < 0.001) between performance in the ipsilesional hand after significant postlesion period and the extent of recovery of the contralesional hand. This observation is interpreted in terms of different possible mechanisms of recovery, dependent on the recruitment of motor areas in the lesioned and/or intact hemispheres.

Three Essays on the Formation and Impact of Economic Policy

Introduction In my thesis I argue that economic policy is all about economics and politics. Consequently, analysing and understanding economic policy ideally has at least two parts. The economics part, which is centered around the expected impact of a specific policy on the real economy both in terms of efficiency and equity. The insights of this part point into which direction the fine-tuning of economic policies should go. However, fine-tuning of economic policies will be most likely subject to political constraints. That is why, in the politics part, a much better understanding can be gained by taking into account how the incentives of politicians and special interest groups as well as the role played by different institutional features affect the formation of economic policies. The first part and chapter of my thesis concentrates on the efficiency-related impact of economic policies: how does corporate income taxation in general, and corporate income tax progressivity in specific, affect the creation of new firms? Reduced progressivity and flat-rate taxes are in vogue. By 2009, 22 countries are operating flat-rate income tax systems, as do 7 US states and 14 Swiss cantons (for corporate income only). Tax reform proposals in the spirit of the "flat tax" model typically aim to reduce three parameters: the average tax burden, the progressivity of the tax schedule, and the complexity of the tax code. In joint work, Marius Brülhart and I explore the implications of changes in these three parameters on entrepreneurial activity, measured by counts of firm births in a panel of Swiss municipalities. Our results show that lower average tax rates and reduced complexity of the tax code promote firm births. Controlling for these effects, reduced progressivity inhibits firm births. Our reading of these results is that tax progressivity has an insurance effect that facilitates entrepreneurial risk taking. The positive effects of lower tax levels and reduced complexity are estimated to be significantly stronger than the negative effect of reduced progressivity. To the extent that firm births reflect desirable entrepreneurial dynamism, it is not the flattening of tax schedules that is key to successful tax reforms, but the lowering of average tax burdens and the simplification of tax codes. Flatness per se is of secondary importance and even appears to be detrimental to firm births. The second part of my thesis, which corresponds to the second and third chapter, concentrates on how economic policies are formed. By the nature of the analysis, these two chapters draw on a broader literature than the first chapter. Both economists and political scientists have done extensive research on how economic policies are formed. Thereby, researchers in both disciplines have recognised the importance of special interest groups trying to influence policy-making through various channels. In general, economists base their analysis on a formal and microeconomically founded approach, while abstracting from institutional details. In contrast, political scientists' frameworks are generally richer in terms of institutional features but lack the theoretical rigour of economists' approaches. I start from the economist's point of view. However, I try to borrow as much as possible from the findings of political science to gain a better understanding of how economic policies are formed in reality. In the second chapter, I take a theoretical approach and focus on the institutional policy framework to explore how interactions between different political institutions affect the outcome of trade policy in presence of special interest groups' lobbying. Standard political economy theory treats the government as a single institutional actor which sets tariffs by trading off social welfare against contributions from special interest groups seeking industry-specific protection from imports. However, these models lack important (institutional) features of reality. That is why, in my model, I split up the government into a legislative and executive branch which can both be lobbied by special interest groups. Furthermore, the legislative has the option to delegate its trade policy authority to the executive. I allow the executive to compensate the legislative in exchange for delegation. Despite ample anecdotal evidence, bargaining over delegation of trade policy authority has not yet been formally modelled in the literature. I show that delegation has an impact on policy formation in that it leads to lower equilibrium tariffs compared to a standard model without delegation. I also show that delegation will only take place if the lobby is not strong enough to prevent it. Furthermore, the option to delegate increases the bargaining power of the legislative at the expense of the lobbies. Therefore, the findings of this model can shed a light on why the U.S. Congress often practices delegation to the executive. In the final chapter of my thesis, my coauthor, Antonio Fidalgo, and I take a narrower approach and focus on the individual politician level of policy-making to explore how connections to private firms and networks within parliament affect individual politicians' decision-making. Theories in the spirit of the model of the second chapter show how campaign contributions from lobbies to politicians can influence economic policies. There exists an abundant empirical literature that analyses ties between firms and politicians based on campaign contributions. However, the evidence on the impact of campaign contributions is mixed, at best. In our paper, we analyse an alternative channel of influence in the shape of personal connections between politicians and firms through board membership. We identify a direct effect of board membership on individual politicians' voting behaviour and an indirect leverage effect when politicians with board connections influence non-connected peers. We assess the importance of these two effects using a vote in the Swiss parliament on a government bailout of the national airline, Swissair, in 2001, which serves as a natural experiment. We find that both the direct effect of connections to firms and the indirect leverage effect had a strong and positive impact on the probability that a politician supported the government bailout.

Relationship of aerobic fitness and motor skills with memory and attention in preschoolers (Ballabeina): a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The debate about a possible relationship between aerobic fitness and motor skills with cognitive development in children has recently re-emerged, because of the decrease in children's aerobic fitness and the concomitant pressure of schools to enhance cognitive performance. As the literature in young children is scarce, we examined the cross-sectional and longitudinal relationship of aerobic fitness and motor skills with spatial working memory and attention in preschool children. METHODS: Data from 245 ethnically diverse preschool children (mean age: 5.2 (0.6) years, girls: 49.4%) analyzed at baseline and 9 months later. Assessments included aerobic fitness (20 m shuttle run) and motor skills with agility (obstacle course) and dynamic balance (balance beam). Cognitive parameters included spatial working memory (IDS) and attention (KHV-VK). All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, BMI, migration status, parental education, native language and linguistic region. Longitudinal analyses were additionally adjusted for the respective baseline value. RESULTS: In the cross-sectional analysis, aerobic fitness was associated with better attention (r=0.16, p=0.03). A shorter time in the agility test was independently associated with a better performance both in working memory (r=-0.17, p=0.01) and in attention (r=-0.20, p=0.01). In the longitudinal analyses, baseline aerobic fitness was independently related to improvements in attention (r=0.16, p=0.03), while baseline dynamic balance was associated with improvements in working memory (r=0.15, p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In young children, higher baseline aerobic fitness and motor skills were related to a better spatial working memory and/or attention at baseline, and to some extent also to their future improvements over the following 9 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT00674544.