Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Gains from switching and evolutionary stability in multi-player matrix games.

In this paper we unify, simplify, and extend previous work on the evolutionary dynamics of symmetric N-player matrix games with two pure strategies. In such games, gains from switching strategies depend, in general, on how many other individuals in the group play a given strategy. As a consequence, the gain function determining the gradient of selection can be a polynomial of degree N-1. In order to deal with the intricacy of the resulting evolutionary dynamics, we make use of the theory of polynomials in Bernstein form. This theory implies a tight link between the sign pattern of the gains from switching on the one hand and the number and stability of the rest points of the replicator dynamics on the other hand. While this relationship is a general one, it is most informative if gains from switching have at most two sign changes, as is the case for most multi-player matrix games considered in the literature. We demonstrate that previous results for public goods games are easily recovered and extended using this observation. Further examples illustrate how focusing on the sign pattern of the gains from switching obviates the need for a more involved analysis.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Epistasis and maternal effects in experimental adaptation to chronic nutritional stress in Drosophila.

Based on ecological and metabolic arguments, some authors predict that adaptation to novel, harsh environments should involve alleles showing negative (diminishing return) epistasis and/or that it should be mediated in part by evolution of maternal effects. Although the first prediction has been supported in microbes, there has been little experimental support for either prediction in multicellular eukaryotes. Here we use a line-cross design to study the genetic architecture of adaptation to chronic larval malnutrition in a population of Drosophila melanogaster that evolved on an extremely nutrient-poor larval food for 84 generations. We assayed three fitness-related traits (developmental rate, adult female weight and egg-to-adult viability) under the malnutrition conditions in 14 crosses between this selected population and a nonadapted control population originally derived from the same base population. All traits showed a pattern of negative epistasis between alleles improving performance under malnutrition. Furthermore, evolutionary changes in maternal traits accounted for half of the 68% increase in viability and for the whole of 8% reduction in adult female body weight in the selected population (relative to unselected controls). These results thus support both of the above predictions and point to the importance of nonadditive effects in adaptive microevolution.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

The effect of subminimal inhibitory concentrations of penicillin on growth rate and haemolysin activity of group G Streptococcus

The influence of the subminimal inhibitory concentrations (1/3 and 1/4 of the MIC) of penicillin on growth rate and on haemolysin production of a strain of group G Streptococcus was studied. It was shown that 1/3 of the MIC almost completely inhibited the bacterial growth, but it was not able to inhibit haemolysin activity in the culture supernate. The generation time of bacteria grown in 1/4 of the MIC was approximately twice longer than that of the control culture. In all cultures, the haemolysin, after being produced (or liberated), reached a peak and decreased to low levels, which could suggest that group G Streptococcus produces some end products of metabolism that are able to inhibit haemolysin activity.

The snail hosts of schistosomiasis: some evolutionary and ecological perspectives in relation to control

Despite opportunities for radiation provided by spatio-temporal isolation, the basic morphological plan of pulmonate snails has remained conservative. In consequence of the resulting dearth of morphological characters and their plasticity, there is a case for using biochemical characters such as exogenous chemicals released by the snails (e.g. amino acids) and their chemoreception niche as taxonomic aids to classify snails of medical importance. As these same chemicals are used by snails to distinguish conspecifics they could also be used as "environmental antibodies" in controlled release formulations (CRF's) designed to remove target snails in a specific, cost-effective and ecologically acceptable manner. The snails, surface-living bacteria, algae and macrophytic plants are considered as co-evolved, interactive modular systems with strong mutualistic elements. Recently, anthropogenic perturbations such as deforestation, and damming of flowing waters, have benefited these modules whereas others such as river canalization, acid deposition, accumulation of pesticide residues and eutrophication have harmed them. Research is needed to elucidate the factors which limit the growth of snails in primitive habitats, uninfluenced by man, as well as in those subject to harmful anthropogenic factors. The understanding thus gained could be applied to develop cost-effective primary health care strategies to reduce or prevent transmission of schistosomiasis and other water related diseases.

Parental heart rate variability during pediatric consultation

OBJECTIVE: Research regarding communication between pediatricians and parents in pediatric consultation has mainly focused on parental satisfaction, on its influence on compliance and on communication techniques used by pediatricians. However, there is paucity in research regarding parental stress levels during pediatric consultation. Therefore, the aim of our study was to measure parental heart rate variability related as a measure of stress levels during pediatric consultation. METHODS: Video recordings with simultaneous monitoring and recording of parental heart rate were obtained from 38 pediatric consultations in the ambulatory or hospital setting of the department of pediatrics (HFR, Fribourg, Switzerland). Pulse variation was measured every 5 seconds and heart rate variability (increase or decrease were analyzed) in relation to various sections of the consultation. RESULTS: Heart rate significantly decreased at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation (p= 0.0567). In addition, heart rate significantly decreased at the beginning of clinical examination (p= 0.0476) compared to psychosocial history taking. During the discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis, heart rate was significantly elevated compared to the discussion of the prognosis (p=0.0505). CONCLUSION: We conclude that pediatric consultation has a significant impact on parental stress levels shown by parental heart variability. In general, it can be shown that stress levels significantly decrease at the end of the consultation compared to the beginning of the consultation. In addition, stress levels decrease at the beginning of clinical examination and increase during psychosocial history taking and discussion of laboratory findings and diagnosis. Therefore, our findings highlight the importance of a thorough consultation which include a comprehensive clinical examination with special care taken regarding psychosocial issues and information given regarding the diagnosis.

Evolutionary and convergence stability for continuous phenotypes in finite populations derived from two-allele models.

The evolution of a quantitative phenotype is often envisioned as a trait substitution sequence where mutant alleles repeatedly replace resident ones. In infinite populations, the invasion fitness of a mutant in this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process is used to characterize features about long-term phenotypic evolution, such as singular points, convergence stability (established from first-order effects of selection), branching points, and evolutionary stability (established from second-order effects of selection). Here, we try to characterize long-term phenotypic evolution in finite populations from this two-allele representation of the evolutionary process. We construct a stochastic model describing evolutionary dynamics at non-rare mutant allele frequency. We then derive stability conditions based on stationary average mutant frequencies in the presence of vanishing mutation rates. We find that the second-order stability condition obtained from second-order effects of selection is identical to convergence stability. Thus, in two-allele systems in finite populations, convergence stability is enough to characterize long-term evolution under the trait substitution sequence assumption. We perform individual-based simulations to confirm our analytic results.

Immunological system and Schistosoma mansoni: co-evolutionary immunobiology. What is the eosinophil role in parasite-host relationship?

Schistosomes, ancestors and recent species, have pervaded many hosts and several phylogenetic levels of immunity, causing an evolutionary pressure to eosinophil lineage expression and response. Schistosoma mansoni adult worms have capitalized on the apparent adversity of living within the mesenteric veins, using the dispersion of eggs and antigens to other tissues besides intestines to set a systemic activation of several haematopoietic lineages, specially eosinophils and monocytes/macrophages. This activation occurs in bone marrow, spleen, liver, lymph nodes, omental and mesenteric milky spots (activation of the old or primordial and recent or new lymphomyeloid tissue), increasing and making easy the migration of eosinophils, monocytes and other cells to the intestinal periovular granulomas. The exudative perigranulomatous stage of the periovular reaction, which present hystolitic characteristics, is then exploited by the parasites, to release the eggs into the intestinal lumen. The authors hypothesize here that eosinophils, which have a long phylogenic story, could participate in the parasite - host co-evolution, specially with S. mansoni, operating together with monocytes/ macrophages, upon parasite transmission.

Female- and male-specific signals of quality in the barn owl

Most bird studies of female signalling have been confined to species in which females display a male-ornament in a vestigial form. However, a great deal of benefit may be gained from considering phenotypic traits that are specific to females. This is because (1) sex-specific traits may signal sex-specific qualities and (2) females may develop a male-ornament not because they are selected to do so, but because fathers transmit to daughters the underlying genes for its expression (genetic correlation between the sexes). We investigated these two propositions in the barn owl Tyto alba, a species in which male plumage is lighter in colour and less marked with black spots than that of females. Firstly, we present published evidence that female plumage spottiness reflects parasite resistance ability. We also show that male plumage coloration is correlated with reproductive success, male feeding rate and heart mass. Secondly, cross-fostering experiments demonstrate that plumage coloration and spottiness are genetically correlated between the sexes. This implies that if a given trait value is selected in one sex, the other sex will indirectly evolve towards a similar value. This prediction is supported by the observation that female plumage coloration and spottiness resembled that of males, in comparisons at the level of Tyto alba alba populations, Tyto alba subspecies and Tyto species. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that sex-specific traits signal sex-specific qualities and that a gene for a sex-specific trait can be expressed in the other sex as the consequence of a genetic correlation between the sexes.