Compositional evolution with mass transfer in closed systems

Evolution of compositions in time, space, temperature or other covariates is frequentin practice. For instance, the radioactive decomposition of a sample changes its composition with time. Some of the involved isotopes decompose into other isotopes of thesample, thus producing a transfer of mass from some components to other ones, butpreserving the total mass present in the system. This evolution is traditionally modelledas a system of ordinary di erential equations of the mass of each component. However,this kind of evolution can be decomposed into a compositional change, expressed interms of simplicial derivatives, and a mass evolution (constant in this example). A rst result is that the simplicial system of di erential equations is non-linear, despiteof some subcompositions behaving linearly.The goal is to study the characteristics of such simplicial systems of di erential equa-tions such as linearity and stability. This is performed extracting the compositional differential equations from the mass equations. Then, simplicial derivatives are expressedin coordinates of the simplex, thus reducing the problem to the standard theory ofsystems of di erential equations, including stability. The characterisation of stabilityof these non-linear systems relays on the linearisation of the system of di erential equations at the stationary point, if any. The eigenvelues of the linearised matrix and theassociated behaviour of the orbits are the main tools. For a three component system,these orbits can be plotted both in coordinates of the simplex or in a ternary diagram.A characterisation of processes with transfer of mass in closed systems in terms of stability is thus concluded. Two examples are presented for illustration, one of them is aradioactive decay

Monoclonal auto-antibodies and sera of autoimmune patients react with Plasmodium falciparum and inhibit its in vitro growth

The relationship between autoimmunity and malaria is not well understood. To determine whether autoimmune responses have a protective role during malaria, we studied the pattern of reactivity to plasmodial antigens of sera from 93 patients with 14 different autoimmune diseases (AID) who were not previously exposed to malaria. Sera from patients with 13 different AID reacted against Plasmodium falciparum by indirect fluorescent antibody test with frequencies varying from 33-100%. In addition, sera from 37 AID patients were tested for reactivity against Plasmodium yoelii 17XNL and the asexual blood stage forms of three different P. falciparum strains. In general, the frequency of reactive sera was higher against young trophozoites than schizonts (p < 0.05 for 2 strains), indicating that the antigenic determinants targeted by the tested AID sera might be more highly expressed by the former stage. The ability of monoclonal auto-antibodies (auto-Ab) to inhibit P. falciparum growth in vitro was also tested. Thirteen of the 18 monoclonal auto-Ab tested (72%), but none of the control monoclonal antibodies, inhibited parasite growth, in some cases by greater than 40%. We conclude that autoimmune responses mediated by auto-Ab may present anti-plasmodial activity.

Turnover and accumulation of genetic diversity across large time-scale cycles of isolation and connection of populations.

Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.

Domestic, peridomestic and wild hosts in the transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the Caatinga area colonised by Triatoma brasiliensis

The role played by different mammal species in the maintenance of Trypanosoma cruzi is not constant and varies in time and place. This study aimed to characterise the importance of domestic, wild and peridomestic hosts in the transmission of T. cruzi in Tauá, state of Ceará, Caatinga area, Brazil, with an emphasis on those environments colonised by Triatoma brasiliensis. Direct parasitological examinations were performed on insects and mammals, serologic tests were performed on household and outdoor mammals and multiplex polymerase chain reaction was used on wild mammals. Cytochrome b was used as a food source for wild insects. The serum prevalence in dogs was 38% (20/53), while in pigs it was 6% (2/34). The percentages of the most abundantly infected wild animals were as follows: Thrichomys laurentius 74% (83/112) and Kerodon rupestris 10% (11/112). Of the 749 triatomines collected in the household research, 49.3% (369/749) were positive for T. brasiliensis, while 6.8% were infected with T. cruzi (25/369). In captured animals, T. brasiliensis shares a natural environment with T. laurentius, K. rupestris, Didelphis albiventris, Monodelphis domestica, Galea spixii, Wiedomys pyrrhorhinos, Conepatus semistriatus and Mus musculus. In animals identified via their food source, T. brasiliensis shares a natural environment with G. spixii, K. rupestris, Capra hircus, Gallus gallus, Tropidurus oreadicus and Tupinambis merianae. The high prevalence of T. cruzi in household and peridomiciliar animals reinforces the narrow relationship between the enzootic cycle and humans in environments with T. brasiliensis and characterises it as ubiquitous.

Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Phenotypic novelty in experimental hybrids is predicted by the genetic distance between species of cichlid fish.

BACKGROUND: Transgressive segregation describes the occurrence of novel phenotypes in hybrids with extreme trait values not observed in either parental species. A previously experimentally untested prediction is that the amount of transgression increases with the genetic distance between hybridizing species. This follows from QTL studies suggesting that transgression is most commonly due to complementary gene action or epistasis, which become more frequent at larger genetic distances. This is because the number of QTLs fixed for alleles with opposing signs in different species should increase with time since speciation provided that speciation is not driven by disruptive selection. We measured the amount of transgression occurring in hybrids of cichlid fish bred from species pairs with gradually increasing genetic distances and varying phenotypic similarity. Transgression in multi-trait shape phenotypes was quantified using landmark-based geometric morphometric methods. RESULTS: We found that genetic distance explained 52% and 78% of the variation in transgression frequency in F1 and F2 hybrids, respectively. Confirming theoretical predictions, transgression when measured in F2 hybrids, increased linearly with genetic distance between hybridizing species. Phenotypic similarity of species on the other hand was not related to the amount of transgression. CONCLUSION: The commonness and ease with which novel phenotypes are produced in cichlid hybrids between unrelated species has important implications for the interaction of hybridization with adaptation and speciation. Hybridization may generate new genotypes with adaptive potential that did not reside as standing genetic variation in either parental population, potentially enhancing a population's responsiveness to selection. Our results make it conceivable that hybridization contributed to the rapid rates of phenotypic evolution in the large and rapid adaptive radiations of haplochromine cichlids.

Comparative effects of losartan and irbesartan on serum uric acid in hypertensive patients with hyperuricaemia and gout.

OBJECTIVE: Losartan has been shown to increase urinary uric acid excretion and hence to lower serum uric acid levels. The purposes of the present study were: (1) to evaluate the effects of losartan on serum uric acid in hypertensive patients with hyperuricemia and gout, (2) to compare the effects of losartan with those of irbesartan, another angiotensin II receptor antagonist and (3) to evaluate whether losartan 50 mg b.i.d. has a greater impact on serum uric acid levels than losartan 50 mg once a day. METHODS: Thirteen hypertensive patients with hyperuricaemia and gout completed this prospective, randomized, double-blind, cross-over study. Uric acid-lowering drugs were stopped 3 weeks before the beginning of the study. Patients were randomized to receive either losartan 50 mg or irbesartan 150 mg once a day, for 4 weeks. During this phase, a placebo was given in the evening. After 4 weeks, the dose was increased to losartan 50 mg b.i.d., or irbesartan 150 mg b.i.d. for another 4 week period. Subsequently, the patients were switched to the alternative treatment modality. Enalapril (20 mg o.d.) was given during the run-in period and between the two treatment phases. Serum and urinary uric acid were measured at the beginning and at the end of each treatment phase. RESULTS: Our results show that losartan 50 mg once daily decreased serum uric acid levels from 538 +/- 26 to 491 +/- 20 micromol/l (P < 0.01). Irbesartan had no effect on serum uric acid. Increasing the dose of losartan from 50 mg o.d. to 50 mg twice a day, did not further decrease serum uric acid. This may in part be due to a low compliance to the evening dose as measured with an electronic device. Indeed, whatever the prescribed drug, the mean compliance of the evening dose was always significantly lower than that of the morning dose. The uricosuric effect of losartan appears to decrease with time when a new steady state of lower serum uric acid is reached. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to irbesartan, losartan was uricosuric and decreased serum uric acid levels. Losartan 50 mg b.i.d. did not produce a greater fall in serum uric acid than losartan once a day. Losartan might be a useful therapeutic tool to control blood pressure and reduce serum uric acid levels in hypertensive patients with hyperuricaemia and gout.

Self-potential investigations of a gravel bar in a restored river corridor

Self-potentials (SP) are sensitive to water fluxes and concentration gradients in both saturated and unsaturated geological media, but quantitative interpretations of SP field data may often be hindered by the superposition of different source contributions and time-varying electrode potentials. Self-potential mapping and close to two months of SP monitoring on a gravel bar were performed to investigate the origins of SP signals at a restored river section of the Thur River in northeastern Switzerland. The SP mapping and subsequent inversion of the data indicate that the SP sources are mainly located in the upper few meters in regions of soil cover rather than bare gravel. Wavelet analyses of the time-series indicate a strong, but non-linear influence of water table and water content variations, as well as rainfall intensity on the recorded SP signals. Modeling of the SP response with respect to an increase in the water table elevation and precipitation indicate that the distribution of soil properties in the vadose zone has a very strong influence. We conclude that the observed SP responses on the gravel bar are more complicated than previously proposed semi-empiric relationships between SP signals and hydraulic head or the thickness of the vadose zone. We suggest that future SP monitoring in restored river corridors should either focus on quantifying vadose zone processes by installing vertical profiles of closely spaced SP electrodes or by installing the electrodes within the river to avoid signals arising from vadose zone processes and time-varying electrochemical conditions in the vicinity of the electrodes.

Expression of neutral endopeptidase, endothelin-1, and nuclear factor kappa B in prostate cancer: interrelations and associations with prostate-specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

Objective. To study the impact of the neutral endopeptidase (NEP)/neuropeptides (NPs) axis and nuclear factor kappa B (NFκB) as predictors of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RP). Patients and Methods. 70 patients with early-stage PC were treated with RP and their tumor samples were evaluated for expression of NEP, endothelin-1 (ET-1) and NFκB (p65). Time to PSA recurrence was correlated with the examined parameters and combined with preoperative PSA level, Gleason score, pathological TNM (pT) stage, and surgical margin (SM) assessment. Results and Limitations. Membranous expression of NEP (P < 0.001), cytoplasmic ET-1 (P = 0.002), and cytoplasmic NFκB (P < 0.001) were correlated with time to PSA relapse. NEP was associated with ET-1 (P < 0.001) and NFκB (P < 0.001). ET-1 was also correlated with NFκB (P < 0.001). NEP expression (P = 0.017), pT stage (P = 0.013), and SMs (P = 0.036) were independent predictors of time to PSA recurrence. Conclusions. There seems to be a clinical model of NEP/NPs and NFκB pathways interconnection, with their constituents following inverse patterns of expression in accordance with their biological roles and molecular interrelations.

The effect of divorce laws on divorce rates in Europe

This paper analyzes a panel of 18 European countries spanning from 1950 to 2003 toexamine the extent to which the legal reforms leading to easier divorce that took placeduring the second half of the 20th century have contributed to the increase in divorce rates across Europe. We use a quasi-experimental set-up and exploit the different timing of the reforms in divorce laws across countries. We account for unobserved country-specificfactors by introducing country fixed effects, and we include country-specific trends tocontrol for time-varying factors at the country level that may be correlated with divorcerates and divorce laws, such as changing social norms or slow moving demographictrends. We find that the reforms were followed by significant increases in divorce rates.Overall, we estimate that the introduction of no-fault, unilateral divorce increased thedivorce rate by about 1, a sizeable effect given the average rate of 4.2 divorces per 1,000married people in 2002.

The characterization of retinal phenotype in a family with C1QTNF5-related late-onset retinal degeneration.

PURPOSE: To describe the clinical, spectral-domain optical coherence tomography and electrophysiological features of C1QTNF5-associated late-onset retinal degeneration in a molecularly confirmed pedigree. METHODS: Five members of a family participated, and affected individuals (n = 4) underwent detailed ophthalmologic evaluation including fundus autofluorescence and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography imaging and electroretinography. Electrooculography was performed in three individuals. RESULTS: The visual acuity was initially normal and worsened with time. Anterior segment abnormalities included peripupillary iris atrophy and long anterior insertion of zonules. Peripapillary atrophy, drusenoid deposition, and scalloped sectorial chorioretinal atrophy were observed in all older individuals (n = 3). Fundus autofluorescence demonstrated hypofluorescent areas corresponding to regions of chorioretinal atrophy. The spectral-domain optical coherence tomography demonstrated multiple areas of retinal pigment epithelium-Bruch membrane separation with intervening homogeneous deposition that corresponded to the drusenoid lesions and areas of chorioretinal atrophy. Electrooculography was normal in one individual and showed abnormally low dark trough measures in older individuals (n = 2). Electroretinography was normal in early stages (n = 1), but showed marked abnormalities in the rod system (n = 3), which was predominantly inner retinal (n = 2) in late stages. CONCLUSION: Late-onset retinal degeneration is a progressive degeneration, and anterior segment abnormalities present early. The widespread sub-retinal pigment epithelium deposition seen on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in older individuals appears to be a characteristic in late stages. Electrooculography demonstrates abnormalities only in late stages of the disease.

Three essays on liquidity risk

Preface In this thesis we study several questions related to transaction data measured at an individual level. The questions are addressed in three essays that will constitute this thesis. In the first essay we use tick-by-tick data to estimate non-parametrically the jump process of 37 big stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, and of the CAC 40 index. We separate the total daily returns in three components (trading continuous, trading jump, and overnight), and we characterize each one of them. We estimate at the individual and index levels the contribution of each return component to the total daily variability. For the index, the contribution of jumps is smaller and it is compensated by the larger contribution of overnight returns. We test formally that individual stocks jump more frequently than the index, and that they do not respond independently to the arrive of news. Finally, we find that daily jumps are larger when their arrival rates are larger. At the contemporaneous level there is a strong negative correlation between the jump frequency and the trading activity measures. The second essay study the general properties of the trade- and volume-duration processes for two stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange. These two stocks correspond to a very illiquid stock and to a relatively liquid stock. We estimate a class of autoregressive gamma process with conditional distribution from the family of non-central gamma (up to a scale factor). This process was introduced by Gouriéroux and Jasiak and it is known as Autoregressive gamma process. We also evaluate the ability of the process to fit the data. For this purpose we use the Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998) test; and the capacity of the model to reproduce the moments of the observed data, and the empirical serial correlation and the partial serial correlation functions. We establish that the model describes correctly the trade duration process of illiquid stocks, but have problems to adjust correctly the trade duration process of liquid stocks which present long-memory characteristics. When the model is adjusted to volume duration, it successfully fit the data. In the third essay we study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We distinguish the case of parameters which are constant through the day from time-varying ones. An optimization problem incorporating this realistic microstructure model is presented and solved. Our model endogenizes the number of trades required before the position is liquidated. A comparative static exercise demonstrates the realism of our model. We find that a sell decision taken in the morning will be liquidated by the early afternoon. If price impacts increase over the day, the liquidation will take place more rapidly.

Waveform inversion of crosshole georadar data: influence of source wavelet variability and the suitability of a single wavelet assumption

Waveform-based tomographic imaging of crosshole georadar data is a powerful method to investigate the shallow subsurface because of its ability to provide images of electrical properties in near-surface environments with unprecedented spatial resolution. A critical issue with waveform inversion is the a priori unknown source signal. Indeed, the estimation of the source pulse is notoriously difficult but essential for the effective application of this method. Here, we explore the viability and robustness of a recently proposed deconvolution-based procedure to estimate the source pulse during waveform inversion of crosshole georadar data, where changes in wavelet shape with location as a result of varying near-field conditions and differences in antenna coupling may be significant. Specifically, we examine whether a single, average estimated source current function can adequately represent the pulses radiated at all transmitter locations during a crosshole georadar survey, or whether a separate source wavelet estimation should be performed for each transmitter gather. Tests with synthetic and field data indicate that remarkably good tomographic reconstructions can be obtained using a single estimated source pulse when moderate to strong variability exists in the true source signal with antenna location. Only in the case of very strong variability in the true source pulse are tomographic reconstructions clearly improved by estimating a different source wavelet for each transmitter location.

Reprisals remembered: German-Greek conflict and car sales during the Euro crisis

During the Greek debt crisis after 2010, the German government insisted on harshausterity measures. This led to a rapid cooling of relations between the Greekand German governments. We compile a new index of public acrimony betweenGermany and Greece based on newspaper reports and internet search terms. Thisinformation is combined with historical maps on German war crimes during theoccupation between 1941 and 1944. During months of open conflict between Germanand Greek politicians, German car sales fell markedly more than those of cars fromother countries. This was especially true in areas affected by German reprisals duringWorldWar II: areas where German troops committed massacres and destroyed entirevillages curtailed their purchases of German cars to a greater extent during conflictmonths than other parts of Greece. We conclude that cultural aversion was a keydeterminant of purchasing behavior, and that memories of past conflict can affecteconomic choices in a time-varying fashion. These findings are compatible withbehavioral models emphasizing the importance of salience for individual decision-making.

Surface and subsurface decomposition of a desiccated grass pasture biomass related to erosion and its prediction with RUSLE

Erosion is deleterious because it reduces the soil's productivity capacity for growing crops and causes sedimentation and water pollution problems. Surface and buried crop residue, as well as live and dead plant roots, play an important role in erosion control. An efficient way to assess the effectiveness of such materials in erosion reduction is by means of decomposition constants as used within the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation - RUSLE's prior-land-use subfactor - PLU. This was investigated using simulated rainfall on a 0.12 m m-1 slope, sandy loam Paleudult soil, at the Agriculture Experimental Station of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, in Eldorado do Sul, State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The study area had been covered by native grass pasture for about fifteen years. By the middle of March 1996, the sod was mechanically mowed and the crop residue removed from the field. Late in April 1996, the sod was chemically desiccated with herbicide and, about one month later, the following treatments were established and evaluated for sod biomass decomposition and soil erosion, from June 1996 to May 1998, on duplicated 3.5 x 11.0 m erosion plots: (a) and (b) soil without tillage, with surface residue and dead roots; (c) soil without tillage, with dead roots only; (d) soil tilled conventionally every two-and-half months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue; and (e) soil tilled conventionally every six months, with dead roots plus incorporated residue. Simulated rainfall was applied with a rotating-boom rainfall simulator, at an intensity of 63.5 mm h-1 for 90 min, eight to nine times during the experimental period (about every two-and-half months). Surface and subsurface sod biomass amounts were measured before each rainfall test along with the erosion measurements of runoff rate, sediment concentration in runoff, soil loss rate, and total soil loss. Non-linear regression analysis was performed using an exponential and a power model. Surface sod biomass decomposition was better depicted by the exponential model, while subsurface sod biomass was by the power model. Subsurface sod biomass decomposed faster and more than surface sod biomass, with dead roots in untilled soil without residue on the surface decomposing more than dead roots in untilled soil with surface residue. Tillage type and frequency did not appreciably influence subsurface sod biomass decomposition. Soil loss rates increased greatly with both surface sod biomass decomposition and decomposition of subsurface sod biomass in the conventionally tilled soil, but they were minimally affected by subsurface sod biomass decomposition in the untilled soil. Runoff rates were little affected by the studied treatments. Dead roots plus incorporated residues were effective in reducing erosion in the conventionally tilled soil, while consolidation of the soil surface was important in no-till. The residual effect of the turned soil on erosion diminished gradually with time and ceased after two years.