Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Prochloraz causes irreversible masculinization of zebrafish (Danio rerio).

The aim of the present study was to investigate the persistence of endocrine effects by prochloraz, a fungicide known to have multiple effects on the endocrine system of vertebrates. Since discontinuous exposure is particularly relevant in aquatic ecosystems, an exposure scenario with an exposure phase and a subsequent recovery period was chosen to assess the potential for reversibility of effects by prochloraz on the sexual development of zebrafish (Danio rerio). Zebrafish were exposed to different concentrations of prochloraz (10-300 μg/L) until 60 days post hatch (dph), which includes the period of sexual differentiation. For the subsequent 40 days, fish were either held in clean water for depuration or under further continuous exposure. Histological investigations of the gonads revealed persistent effects on sexual differentiation. The sex ratio was skewed towards males and significantly more intersex individuals were found after exposure to prochloraz at 60 dph. No intersex fish, but masculinized sex ratios were still present after the depuration period, documenting that prochloraz irreversibly affects the sexual development of zebrafish.

Benzo(a)pyrene Metabolism and EROD and GST Biotransformation Activity in the Liver of Red- and White-Blooded Antarctic Fish.

Climate change and anthropogenic pollution are of increasing concern in remote areas such as Antarctica. The evolutionary adaptation of Antarctic notothenioid fish to the cold and stable Southern Ocean led to a low plasticity of their physiological functions, what may limit their capacity to deal with altered temperature regimes and pollution in the Antarctic environment. Using a biochemical approach, we aimed to assess the hepatic biotransformation capacities of Antarctic fish species by determining (i) the activities of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) and glutathione-S-transferase (GST), and (ii) the metabolic clearance of benzo(a)pyrene by hepatic S9 supernatants. In addition, we determined the thermal sensitivity of the xenobiotic biotransformation enzymes. We investigated the xenobiotic metabolism of the red-blooded Gobionotothen gibberifrons and Notothenia rossii, the hemoglobin-less Chaenocephalus aceratus and Champsocephalus gunnari, and the rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss as a reference. Our results revealed similar metabolic enzyme activities and metabolic clearance rates between red- and white-blooded Antarctic fish, but significantly lower rates in comparison to rainbow trout. Therefore, bioaccumulation factors for metabolizable lipophilic contaminants may be higher in Antarctic than in temperate fish. Likewise, the thermal adaptive capacities and flexibilities of the EROD and GST activities in Antarctic fish were significantly lower than in rainbow trout. As a consequence, increasing water temperatures in the Southern Ocean will additionally compromise the already low detoxification capacities of Antarctic fish.

Magnetic susceptibility dataset from the early Givetian to early Frasnian in the La Thure section

Recent advances in radiometric dating result in significant improvements in the geological timescale and provide better insight into the timing of various processes and evolutions within the Earth's system. However, no radiometric ages are contained within the Givetian. Consequently, the absolute ages of the Givetian Stage boundaries, as well as the stage's duration, remain poorly constrained. As an alternative, the analysis of sedimentary cycles allows for the estimation of the duration of this stage. We examined the high-resolution magnetic susceptibility signals of four Givetian outcrops in the Givet area for a possible astronomical imprint, to fully understand the rates of evolutionary and environmental change. All four sections are firmly correlated and wavelet analyses of the magnetic susceptibility signals reveal the imprint of astronomical eccentricity forcing. The highly stable 405 kyr cycles constrain the duration of the Givetian Stage at 4.35±0.45 Myr, which is in good agreement with the International Chronostratigraphic Chart (5.0 Myr). The studied sections also exhibit an imprint of obliquity, suggesting a climatic teleconnection between low and high latitudes. The corresponding microfacies curves demonstrate similar astronomical imprint, and thereby indicate that the observed 10**5 year-scale cyclicity is the result of climatic and environmental change.