Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

A proposed parameterization of interface discontinuity factors depending on neighborhood for pin-by-pin diffusion computations for LWR

There exists an interest in performing full core pin-by-pin computations for present nuclear reactors. In such type of problems the use of a transport approximation like the diffusion equation requires the introduction of correction parameters. Interface discontinuity factors can improve the diffusion solution to nearly reproduce a transport solution. Nevertheless, calculating accurate pin-by-pin IDF requires the knowledge of the heterogeneous neutron flux distribution, which depends on the boundary conditions of the pin-cell as well as the local variables along the nuclear reactor operation. As a consequence, it is impractical to compute them for each possible configuration. An alternative to generate accurate pin-by-pin interface discontinuity factors is to calculate reference values using zero-net-current boundary conditions and to synthesize afterwards their dependencies on the main neighborhood variables. In such way the factors can be accurately computed during fine-mesh diffusion calculations by correcting the reference values as a function of the actual environment of the pin-cell in the core. In this paper we propose a parameterization of the pin-by-pin interface discontinuity factors allowing the implementation of a cross sections library able to treat the neighborhood effect. First results are presented for typical PWR configurations.

Geochemistry and risk assessment of street dust in Luanda, Angola, a tropical urban environment

A total of 92 samples of street dust were collected in Luanda, Angola, were sieved below 100 μm, and analysed by ICP-MS for 35 elements after an aqua-regia digestion. The concentration and spatial heterogeneity of trace elements in the street dust of Luanda are generally lower than in most industrialized cities in the Northern hemisphere. These observations reveal a predominantly “natural” origin for the street dust in Luanda, which is also manifested in that some geochemical processes that occur in natural soils are preserved in street dust: the separation of uranium from thorium, and the retention of the former by carbonate materials, or the high correlation between arsenic and vanadium due to their common mode of adsorption on solid particles in the form of oxyanions. The only distinct anthropogenic fingerprint in the composition of Luanda's street dust is the association Pb–Cd–Sb–Cu (and to a lesser extent, Ba–Cr–Zn). The use of risk assessment strategies has proved helpful in identifying the routes of exposure to street dust and the trace elements therein of most concern in terms of potential adverse health effects. In Luanda the highest levels of risk seem to be associated (a) with the presence of As and Pb in the street dust and (b) with the route of ingestion of dust particles, for all the elements included in the study except Hg, for which inhalation of vapours presents a slightly higher risk than ingestion. However, given the large uncertainties associated with the estimates of toxicity values and exposure factors, and the absence of site-specific biometric factors, these results should be regarded as preliminary and further research should be undertaken before any definite conclusions regarding potential health effects are drawn.

Neighborhood-corrected interface discontinuity factors for multi-group pin-by-pin diffusion calculations for LWR

Performing three-dimensional pin-by-pin full core calculations based on an improved solution of the multi-group diffusion equation is an affordable option nowadays to compute accurate local safety parameters for light water reactors. Since a transport approximation is solved, appropriate correction factors, such as interface discontinuity factors, are required to nearly reproduce the fully heterogeneous transport solution. Calculating exact pin-by-pin discontinuity factors requires the knowledge of the heterogeneous neutron flux distribution, which depends on the boundary conditions of the pin-cell as well as the local variables along the nuclear reactor operation. As a consequence, it is impractical to compute them for each possible configuration; however, inaccurate correction factors are one major source of error in core analysis when using multi-group diffusion theory. An alternative to generate accurate pin-by-pin interface discontinuity factors is to build a functional-fitting that allows incorporating the environment dependence in the computed values. This paper suggests a methodology to consider the neighborhood effect based on the Analytic Coarse-Mesh Finite Difference method for the multi-group diffusion equation. It has been applied to both definitions of interface discontinuity factors, the one based on the Generalized Equivalence Theory and the one based on Black-Box Homogenization, and for different few energy groups structures. Conclusions are drawn over the optimal functional-fitting and demonstrative results are obtained with the multi-group pin-by-pin diffusion code COBAYA3 for representative PWR configurations.

Perception of employers and employees regarding the attitude of businesses toward the environment: a qualitative analysis

Commitment and involvement from the different members of an organization are two key elements for an organization to achieve its environmental excellence. Firstly, businesses are aware of the close relationship between their activities and the environment, for they are not only polluting agents but also agents with the capacity to reduce adverse environmental impacts. Secondly, the fact that employees can play a relevant role in terms of the socially responsible measures to be taken by organizations has started to become an irrefutably important issue. This piece of research is intended to help gain knowledge concerning the attitude of the two main actors in productive activity toward the environmental, that is, employers and employees; as well, this research intends to identify factors determining behaviour towards the environmental. For this, we have gathered the ideas and assessments contained in the discourse of a group of small and medium-sized businesses, large company owners and officers, employees, and work related risk prevention representatives. Qualitative work consisted of in-depth interviews and the creation of discussion groups.

Understanding phosphorus diffusion into silicon in a MOVPE environment for III-V on silicon solar cells

Dual-junction solar cells formed by a GaAsP or GaInP top cell and a silicon bottom cell seem to be attractive candidates to materialize the long sought-for integration of III?V materials on silicon for photovoltaic applications. When manufacturing a multi-junction solar cell on silicon, one of the first processes to be addressed is the development of the bottom subcell and, in particular, the formation of its emitter. In this study, we analyze, both experimentally and by simulations, the formation of the emitter as a result of phosphorus diffusion that takes place during the first stages of the epitaxial growth of the solar cell. Different conditions for the Metal-Organic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (MOVPE) process have been evaluated to understand the impact of each parameter, namely, temperature, phosphine partial pressure, time exposure and memory effects in the final diffusion profiles obtained. A model based on SSupremIV process simulator has been developed and validated against experimental profiles measured by ECV and SIMS to calculate P diffusion profiles in silicon formed in a MOVPE environment taking in consideration all these factors.

Emission factors from road dust resuspension in a Mediterranean freeway

Particulate matter emissions from paved roads are currently one of the main challenges for a sustainable transport in Europe. Emissions are scarcely estimated due to the lack of knowledge about the resuspension process severely hampering a reliable simulation of PM and heavy metals concentrations in large cities and evaluation of population exposure. In this study the Emission Factors from road dust resuspension on a Mediterranean freeway were estimated per single vehicle category and PM component (OC, EC, mineral dust and metals) by means of the deployment of vertical profiles of passive samplers and terminal concentration estimate. The estimated PM10 emission factors varied from 12 to 47 mg VKT?1 (VKT: Vehicle Kilometer Traveled) with an average value of 22.7 ? 14.2 mg VKT?1. Emission Factors for heavy and light duty vehicles, passenger cars and motorbikes were estimated, based on average fleet composition and EPA ratios, in 187e733 mg VKT?1, 33e131 VKT?1, 9.4e36.9 VKT?1 and 0.8e3.3 VKT?1, respectively. These range of values are lower than previous estimates in Mediterranean urban roads, probably due to the lower dust reservoir on freeways. PM emitted material was dominated by mineral dust (9e10 mg VKT?1), but also OC and EC were found to be major components and approximately 14 e25% and 2e9% of average PM exhaust emissions from diesel passenger cars on highways respectively.

Irrigated agriculture: Water resources management for a sustainable environment

In the last decade, research on irrigation has mainly been aimed at reducing crop water consumption. In arid and semi-arid environments, in relation to the limited water resources, the use of low quality water in agriculture has also been investigated in order to detect their effects on soil physical properties and on crop production. More recently, even the reduction of energy consumption in agriculture, as well as the effects of external factors, climate change and agricultural policies, have been major research interests. All these objectives have been considered in the papers included in this special issue. However, in the last years, approaches aimed at reducing crop water requirements have significantly changed. Remote sensing with satellites or unmanned vehicles, and vegetation spectral measurements, among others, represent in fact the newest frontier of existing technologies. Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties, often forgotten because of the difficulty of their estimation, can also be considered as a new way to reduce water consumption.

Food availability and predation risk, rather than intrinsic attributes are the main factors shaping the reproductive decisions of a long-lived predator

Funded by Natural Research Limited Natural Environment Research Council studentship. Grant Numbers: NE/J500148/1, NE/F021402/1