A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

This paper introduces the smooth transition logit (STL) model that is designed to detect and model situations in which there is structural change in the behaviour underlying the latent index from which the binary dependent variable is constructed. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants' behaviour to change gradually over time. The main results provide clear evidence in support of a structural change in the nature of price events, and the endogenously determined timing of the change is consistent with the process of deregulation in Queensland.

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Electricity pricing in New Zealand and the Australian State of Queensland: Accounting for the impact of sector restructuring

The electricity industries of New Zealand (NZ) and the Australian state of Queensland have undergone substantial structural and regulatory reform with the common intent to improve economic efficiency. Deregulation and privatisation have been key elements of the reform but have been approached differently by each jurisdiction. This study traces the link between structural and regulatory regimes and asset valuation, profits and, ultimately, pricing. The study finds that key drivers in recent price increases are the government-owned generation and retail sector in NZ and the government-owned distribution sector in Queensland. It is concluded that, contrary to the rationale for the imposition of regulatory controls in a nonmarket environment, the regulatory regimes appear to have contributed to higher rather than lower pricing structures.

Preventive Dentistry and Dental Education in Iran

The present study investigated the preventive orientation of the dental education system in Iran as reflected in the responses of dental school educators and dental students to a questionnaire survey. Two questionnaires, one for dental school educators and one for senior dental students, were designed and piloted. Of the 15 state dental schools in Iran, 7 were selected using a multi-stage sampling approach, and all the dental school educators and senior dental students in these schools were asked to voluntarily fill in the anonymous questionnaires. Totally, 291 educators (80%) and 270 students (82%) participated in the study. In addition to background information, both questionnaires requested information on knowledge of caries prevention, attitudes towards preventive dentistry and oral health behaviour of the respondents. The students' questionnaire also covered items concerning prevention-oriented practice, study motives, and career preferences. Contrary to knowledge and attitudes of the students, those of the educators' were positively associated with some of their academic and personal background characteristics. Women were more likely to report favourable oral self-care habits than men. The other determinants of oral health behaviour were educators' familiarity with the oral public health field, and students' attitudes towards prevention. A higher score on preventive practice among the students was associated with better oral self-care habits and positive attitudes towards prevention. Characteristics of the profession and social status and security were the top-ranked that motivated students to study dentistry, and students mainly preferred to enter postgraduate courses and private practice after graduation. To increase the orientation of Iran's health care system towards prevention, and to cope with current concepts of prevention, corresponding changes should be made in the dental education system. The results of this study support the revision of the dental curriculum by placing more emphasis on prevention-related topics and by integrating prevention-related concepts into all disciplines. Additionally, practicing dentists and dental educators should be provided with opportunities to attend continuing education courses and to conduct seminars and congresses on various aspects of preventive dentistry at home as well as abroad.

The law and policy for electricity generated by renewable energy: Greening the power in three Middle Eastern jurisdictions

This thesis examines the law and policy concerning renewable energy electricity generation in Palestine, Jordan, and Abu Dhabi. The thesis gives greater attention to the promotion of solar power owing to the abundance and viability. It appears that energy security profoundly underpins the utilisation of renewable electricity, and the motivation of climate change mitigation also pays a role in the promotion of renewable energy in these jurisdictions. However, current policies and regulations are not fully able to promote the renewables in the power sector. The thesis submits that reforms of law and policy are necessary to enhance the achievement of environmental and energy goals.

A modell of socially optimal hydro reservoir usage - yelding socially optimal outcomes in nordic electricity markets

An extensive electricity transmission network facilitates electricity trading between Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Currently most of the area's power generation is traded at NordPool, where the trading volumes have steadily increased since the early 1990's, when the exchange was founded. The Nordic electricity is expected to follow the current trend and further integrate with the other European electricity markets. Hydro power is the source for roughly a half of the supply in the Nordic electricity market and most of the hydro is generated in Norway. The dominating role of hydro power distinguishes the Nordic electricity market from most of the other market places. Production of hydro power varies mainly due to hydro reservoirs and demand for electricity. Hydro reservoirs are affected by water inflows that differ each year. The hydro reservoirs explain remarkably the behaviour of the Nordic electricity markets. Therefore among others, Kauppi and Liski (2008) have developed a model that analyzes the behaviour of the markets using hydro reservoirs as explanatory factors. Their model includes, for example, welfare loss due to socially suboptimal hydro reservoir usage, socially optimal electricity price, hydro reservoir storage and thermal reservoir storage; that are referred as outcomes. However, the model does not explain the real market condition but rather an ideal situation. In the model the market is controlled by one agent, i.e. one agent controls all the power generation reserves; it is referred to as a socially optimal strategy. Article by Kauppi and Liski (2008) includes an assumption where an individual agent has a certain fraction of market power, e.g. 20 % or 30 %. In order to maintain the focus of this thesis, this part of their paper is omitted. The goal of this thesis is two-fold. Firstly we expand the results from the socially optimal strategy for years 2006-08, as the earlier study finishes in 2005. The second objective is to improve on the methods from the previous study. This thesis results several outcomes (SPOT-price and welfare loss, etc.) due to socially optimal actions. Welfare loss is interesting as it describes the inefficiency of the market. SPOT-price is an important output for the market participants as it often has an effect on end users' electricity bills. Another function is to modify and try to improve the model by means of using more accurate input data, e.g. by considering pollution trade rights effect on input data. After modifications to the model, new welfare losses are calculated and compared with the same results before the modifications. The hydro reservoir has the higher explanatory significance in the model followed by thermal power. In Nordic markets, thermal power reserves are mostly nuclear power and other thermal sources (coal, natural gas, oil, peat). It can be argued that hydro and thermal reservoirs determine electricity supply. Roughly speaking, the model takes into account electricity demand and supply, and several parameters related to them (water inflow, oil price, etc.), yielding finally the socially optimal outcomes. The author of this thesis is not aware of any similar model being tested before. There have been some other studies that are close to the Kauppi and Liski (2008) model, but those have a somewhat different focus. For example, a specific feature in the model is the focus on long-run capacity usage that differs from the previous studies on short-run market power. The closest study to the model is from California's wholesale electricity markets that, however, uses different methodology. Work is constructed as follows.

The Impact of Regulation on Pricing Behavior in the Spanish Electricity Market

In this paper we measure the impact of regulatory measures which affected the Spanish electricity wholesale market in the period 2002-2005. Our approach is based on the fact that regulation changes firms' incentives and therefore their market behavior. In the absence of any regulation firms would choose profit- maximizing prices on their residual demands so that the observed gap between optimal and actual prices provides a measure of the effect of regulation. Our results indicate that regulation has decreased wholesale prices considerably, but became less effective at the end of the sample period which explains the change of regulatory regime introduced in 2006.

Market Power in the Spanish Electricity Auction

Published as an article in: Journal of Regulatory Economics, 2010, vol. 37, issue 1, pages 42-69.

Effects of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage in Germany on European Electricity Exchange and Welfare

28 p.

Eradication of predatory fishes in fish ponds and nursery ponds using electricity

Prior to stocking economic species in tanks and nursery ponds, all the unwanted and predatory fishes in them will have to be removed. Even though most of them can be caught with ordinary gear such as cast net, drag net, scoop net etc. Total or absolute eradication is not possible and those left over are sufficient to destroy all the fingerlings introduced. Development of an electrical method for killing predatory fishes at reasonable cost is therefore, expected to provide a solution. This paper deals with a few methods, based on the use of electricity and which are suitable for different ponds.

Benzene electro-oxidation in a PEMFC for phenol and electricity cogeneration

In the present investigation, the electrochemically-assisted oxidation of benzene in a H-2-O-2 proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) for electricity and phenol cogeneration is studied. Experiments were carried out in a PEMFC electrochemical reactor using Pd black as cathode electrocatalyst at 60 and 80 degrees C, respectively and 1 atm back pressure. Indeed, it was found that the only product detected under the examined experimental conditions was phenol. The online GC product analysis revealed that it is impossible to produce phenol when the fuel cell circuit is open (I = 0) under all the examined experimental conditions. When the fuel cell circuit was closed, however, the phenol yield was found to follow a volcano-type dependence on the cur-rent of the external circuit. It was found that the maximum phenol yield was 0.35% at 100 mA/cm(2) at 80 degrees C. At the same time, the PEMFC performance was also investigated during the phenol generation process. Furthermore, experiments with the rotating ring disc electrode (RRDE) technique showed that the intermediate oxidation product, i.e. H2O2 existed during the oxygen electro-reduction process. The cyclic voltammograms showed that benzene was strongly adsorbed on the Pd surface, leading to a degradation of the PEMFC performance. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.