Construction Prices : the Market Effect

Teachers of construction economics and estimating have for a long time recognised that there is more to construction pricing than detailed calculation of costs (to the contractor). We always get to the point where we have to say "of course, experience or familiarity of the market is very important and this needs judgement, intuition, etc". Quite how important is the matter in construction pricing is not known and we tend to trivialise its effect. If judgement of the market has a minimal effect, little harm would be done, but if it is really important then some quite serious consequences arise which go well beyond the teaching environment. Major areas of concern for the quantity surveyor are in cost modelling and cost planning - neither of which pay any significant attention to the market effect. There are currently two schools of thought about the market effect issue. The first school is prepared to ignore possible effects until more is known. This may be called the pragmatic school. The second school exists solely to criticise the first school. We will call this the antagonistic school. Neither the pragmatic nor the antagonistic schools seem to be particularly keen to resolve the issue one way or the other. The founder and leader of the antagonistic school is Brian Fine whose paper in 1974 is still the basic text on the subject, and in which he coined the term 'socially acceptable' price to describe what we now recognise as the market effect. Mr Fine's argument was then, and is since, that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' costing and cost estimating process is such that the uncertainty surrounding the contractors' cost that it logically leads to a market-orientated pricing approach. Very little factual evidence, however, seems to be available to support these arguments in any conclusive manner. A further, and more important point for the pragmatic school, is that, even if the market effect is as important as Mr Fine believes, there are no indications of how it can be measured, evaluated or predicted. Since 1974 evidence has been accumulating which tends to reinforce the antagonists' view. A review of the literature covering both contractors' and designers' estimates found many references to the use of value judgements in construction pricing (Ashworth & Skitmore, 1985), which supports the antagonistic view in implying the existence of uncertainty overload. The most convincing evidence emerged quite by accident in some research we recently completed with practicing quantity surveyors in estimating accuracy (Skitmore, 1985). In addition to demonstrating that individual quantity surveyors and certain types of buildings had significant effect on estimating accuracy, one surprise result was that only a very small amount of information was used by the most expert surveyors for relatively very accurate estimates. Only the type and size of building, it seemed, was really relevant in determining accuracy. More detailed information about the buildings' specification, and even a sight to the drawings, did not significantly improve their accuracy level. This seemed to offer clear evidence that the constructional aspects of the project were largely irrelevant and that the expert surveyors were somehow tuning in to the market price of the building. The obvious next step is to feed our expert surveyors with more relevant 'market' information in order to assess its effect. The problem with this is that our experts do not seem able to verbalise their requirements in this respect - a common occurrence in research of this nature. The lack of research into the nature of market effects on prices also means the literature provides little of benefit. Hence the need for this study. It was felt that a clearer picture of the nature of construction markets would be obtained in an environment where free enterprise was a truly ideological force. For this reason, the United States of America was chosen for the next stage of our investigations. Several people were interviewed in an informal and unstructured manner to elicit their views on the action of market forces on construction prices. Although a small number of people were involved, they were thought to be reasonably representative of knowledge in construction pricing. They were also very well able to articulate their views. Our initial reaction to the interviews was that our USA subjects held very close views to those held in the UK. However, detailed analysis revealed the existence of remarkably clear and consistent insights that would not have been obtained in the UK. Further evidence was also obtained from literature relating to the subject and some of the interviewees very kindly expanded on their views in later postal correspondence. We have now analysed all the evidence received and, although a great deal is of an anecdotal nature, we feel that our findings enable at least the basic nature of the subject to be understood and that the factors and their interrelationships can now be examined more formally in relation to construction price levels. I must express my gratitude to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors' Educational Trust and the University of Salford's Department of Civil Engineering for collectively funding this study. My sincere thanks also go to our American participants who freely gave their time and valuable knowledge to us in our enquiries. Finally, I must record my thanks to Tim and Anne for their remarkable ability to produce an intelligible typescript from my unintelligible writing.

Observation of bus ridership in the aftermath of the 2011 Floods in Southeast Queensland, Australia

The 2011 floods in Southeast Queensland had a devastating impact on many sectors including transport. Road and rail systems across all flooded areas of Queensland were severely affected and significant economic losses occurred as a result of roadway and railway closures. Travellers were compelled to take alternative routes because of road closures or deteriorated traffic conditions on their regular route. Extreme changes in traffic volume can occur under such scenarios which disrupts the network re-equilibrium and re-stabilisation in the recovery phase as travellers continuously adjust their travel options. This study explores how travellers respond to such a major network disruption. A comprehensive study was undertaken focusing on how bus riders reacted to the floods in Southeast Queensland by comparing the ridership patterns before, during and after the floods. The study outcomes revealed the evolving reactions of transit users to direct and indirect impacts of a natural disaster. A good understanding of this process is crucial for developing appropriate strategies to encourage modal shift of automobile users to public transit and also for modelling of travel behaviours during and after a major network disruption caused by natural disasters.

Community-based control of Aedes aegypti by using Mesocyclops in southern Vietnam

We previously reported a new community-based mosquito control strategy that resulted in elimination of Aedes aegypti (Linn.) in 40 of 46 communes in northern and central Vietnam, and with annual recurrent total costs (direct and indirect) of only $0.28-$0.89 international dollars per person. This control strategy was extended to four provinces in southern Vietnam in Long An and Hau Giang (2004-2007) and to Long An, Ben Tre, and Vinh Long (2005-2010). In a total of 14 communes with 124,743 residents, the mean ± SD of adult female Ae. aegypti was reduced from 0.93 ± 0.62 to 0.06 ± 0.09, and the reduction of immature Ae. aegypti averaged 98.8%. By the final survey, no adults could be collected in 6 of 14 communes, and one commune, Binh Thanh, also had no immature forms. Although the community-based programs also involved community education and clean-up campaigns, the prevalence of Mesocyclops in large water storage containers > 50 liters increased from 12.77 ± 8.39 to 75.69 ± 9.17% over periods of 15-45 months. At the conclusion of the study, no confirmed dengue cases were detected in four of the five communes for which diagnostic serologic analysis was performed. The rate of progress was faster in communes that were added in stages to the program but the reason for this finding was unclear. At the completion of the formal project, sustainability funds were set up to provide each commune with the financial means to ensure that community-based dengue control activities continued.

Local on-ramp queue management strategy with mainline speed recovery

Ramp metering is an effective motorway control tool beneficial for mainline traffic, but the long on-ramp queues created interfere with surface traffic profoundly. This study deals with the conflict between mainline benefits and thecosts of on-ramp and surface traffic. A novel local on-ramp queue management strategy with mainline speed recovery is proposed. Microscopic simulation is used to test the new strategy and compare it with other strategies. Simulation results reveal that the ramp metering with queue management strategy provides a good balance between the mainline and on-ramp performances.

Science fiction

Few science fiction films have been made in Australia by Australians for Australian audiences, with most of the handful of locally-produced films made since the mid-1990s. Yet there has always been a solid Australian audience for non-Australian science fiction films and a strong international niche audience for the genre. While Australia has provided below-the-line crews and heads of departments (cinematographers, production designers, and so on) for many non-Australian science fiction films produced domestically, few Australian film directors have specialised in the genre. This is somewhat surprising considering that Alex Proyas achieved a degree of international success for his gothic science fiction film Dark City (1998), and George Miller achieved international fame following the worldwide success of Mad Max II (1981). Although the science fiction element of Mad Max II is tenuous – and even more so in the case of the original Mad Max (George Miller, 1979) – Miller is credited with creating a new (sub)genre which incorporates science fiction elements and has been widely imitated internationally: the dystopian, post-apocalyptic movie. Nevertheless, Australia has only produced a small number of science fiction movies. In addition to the above films, key titles include: Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (George Miller, 1985), Shirley Thompson versus the Aliens (Jim Sharman, 1972), The Time Guardian (Brian Hannant, 1987), The Chain Reaction (Ian Barry, 1980) and, more recently, Knowing (Alex Proyas, 2009), Daybreakers (Michael and Peter Spierig, 2009), and Iron Sky (Timo Vuorensola, 2012).

Towards connoisseurship in educational leadership : following the data in a three stage line of inquiry

Following an epistemic frame advanced by Elliott Eisner (2002), it is argued that the tradition of the arts and perspectives from artists have the potential to yield refreshing and interesting insights for the field of educational leadership. Moreover, it is argued that Eisner’s work on tacit knowledge which he advanced as an example of connoisseurship has important implications and posits the possibility of developing a more discerning “eye” in describing the work of educational leaders. To assess these assertions, the paper reports on two stages of interviews with nine former and current artists from Australia in order to understand the processes in which they engaged when they create art and how they encountered and managed barriers. The implications of this preliminary investigation are explored in this paper as they related to how leadership is defined and the issues pertaining to claims that leadership studies must be “scientific” to have currency and credibility. The article begins by making an argument for the value of the arts to advanced a more nuanced view of leadership, considers the importance of connoisseurship as a frame for understanding it, and then explores the cognitive functions performed by the arts before turning to the study at hand.

A study of post diagnosis breast cancer concerns for women living in rural and remote Queensland. Part I : Personal concerns

The findings presented in this paper are part of a research project designed to provide a preliminary indication of the support needs of postdiagnosis women with breast cancer in remote and isolated areas in Queensland. This discussion will present data that focuses on the women’s expressed personal concerns. For participants in this research a diagnosis of breast cancer involves a confrontation with their own mortality and the possibility of a reduced life span. This is a definite life crisis, creating shock and needing considerable adjustment. Along with these generic issues the participants also articulated significant issues in relation to their experience as women in a rural setting. These concerns centred around worries about how their partner and families cope during their absences for treatment, the additional burden on the family of having to cope with running the property or farm during the participant’s absence or illness, added financial strain brought about by the cost of travel for treatment, maintenance of properties during absences, and problems created by time off from properties or self-employment. These findings accord with other reports of health and welfare services for rural Australian and the generic literature on psycho-oncology studies of breast cancer.

A study of postdiagnosis breast cancer concerns for women living in rural and remote Queensland. Part II : support issues

This paper presents the recent findings from a study on the postdiagnosis support needs of women with breast cancer living in rural and remote Queensland. The findings presented in this discussion focus on support needs from the perspective of the women experiencing breast cancer as well as health service providers. The tyranny of distance imposes unique hardships, such as separation from family and friends, during a time of great vulnerability for treatment, the need to travel long distances for support and follow-up services, and extra financial burdens, which can combine to cause strains on the marital relationship and family cohesion. Positive indications are, however, that the rural communities operate on strong, informal networks of support. This network of family, friends and community can, and does, play an active role in the provision of emotional and practical support.

Is intermittent intrapleural analgesia safe and effective following thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction surgery?

Introduction: Thoracoscopic anterior instrumented fusion (TASF) is a safe and viable surgical option for corrective stabilisation of progressive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) [1-2]. However, there is a paucity of literature examining optimum methods of analgesia following this type of surgery. The aim of this study was to identify; if local anaesthetic bolus via an intrapleural catheter provides effective analgesia following thoracoscopic scoliosis correction; what pain levels may be expected; and any adverse effects associated with the use of intermittent intrapleural analgesia at our centre. Methods: A subset of the most recent 80 patients from a large single centre consecutive series of 201 patients (April 2000 to present) who had undergone TASF had their medical records reviewed. 32 patients met the inclusion criteria for the analysis (i.e. pain scores must have been recorded within the hour prior and within two hours following an intrapleural bolus being given). All patients received an intrapleural catheter inserted during surgery, in addition to patient-controlled opiate analgesia and oral analgesia as required. After surgery, patients received a bolus of 0.25% bupivacaine every four hours via the intrapleural catheter. Visual analogue pain scale scores were recorded before and after the bolus of local anaesthetic and the quantity and time of day that any other analgesia was taken, were also recorded. Results and Discussion: 28 female and four male patients (mean age 14.5 ± 1.5 years) had a total of 230 boluses of local anaesthetic administered intrapleurally, directly onto the spine, in the 96 hour period following surgery. Pain scores significantly decreased following the administration of a bolus (p<0.0001), with the mean pain score decreasing from 3.66 to 1.83. The quantity of opiates via patient-controlled analgesia after surgery decreased steadily between successive 24 hours intervals after an initial increase in the second 24 hour period when patients were mobilised. One intrapleural catheter required early removal at 26 hours postop due to leakage; there were no other associated complications with the intermittent intrapleural analgesia method. Post-operative pain following anterior scoliosis correction was decreased significantly with the administration of regular local anaesthetic boluses and can be reduced to ‘mild’ levels by combined analgesia regimes. The intermittent intrapleural analgesia method was not associated with any adverse events or complications in the full cohort of 201 patients.

Segmental torso masses and gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Introduction: Calculating segmental (vertebral level-by-level) torso masses in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) patients allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine during relaxed standing to be estimated. This study used supine CT scans of AIS patients to measure segmental torso masses and explored the joint moments in the coronal plane, particularly at the apex of a scoliotic major curve. Methods: Existing low dose CT data from the Paediatric Spine Research Group was used to calculate vertebral level-by-level torso masses and joint moments occurring in the spine for a group of 20 female AIS patients with right sided thoracic curves. The mean age was 15.0 ± 2.7 years and all curves were classified Lenke Type 1 with a mean Cobb angle 52 ± 5.9°. Image processing software, ImageJ (v1.45 NIH USA) was used to create reformatted coronal plane images, reconstruct vertebral level-by-level torso segments and subsequently measure the torso volume corresponding to each vertebral level. Segment mass was then determined by assuming a tissue density of 1.04x103 kg/m3. Body segment masses for the head, neck and arms were taken from published anthropometric data (Winter 2009). Intervertebral joint moments in the coronal plane at each vertebral level were found from the position of the centroid of the segment masses relative to the joint centres with the segmental body mass data. Results and Discussion: The magnitude of the torso masses from T1-L5 increased inferiorly, with a 150% increase in mean segmental torso mass from 0.6kg at T1 to 1.5kg at L5. The magnitudes of the calculated coronal plane joint moments during relaxed standing were typically 5-7 Nm at the apex of the curve, with the highest apex joint torque of 7Nm. The CT scans were performed in the supine position and curve magnitudes are known to be 7-10° smaller than those measured in standing, due to the absence of gravity acting on the spine. Hence, it can be expected that the moments produced by gravity in the standing individual will be greater than those calculated here.

Sejong Park's Birthday Boy and Korean-Australian encounters

This chapter focuses on some of the flows of film work between Australia and South Korea and some of the roles taken by Australians in the performance (and particularly the sound) of Koreanness in different film contexts. We explore Korean-Australian collaboration on film, through case studies of Sejong Park's Oscar nominated short animated film Birthday Boy (2004) and two Korean feature films - Musa (Kim Sung-su, 2001) and Shadowless Sword (Kim Young-jun, 2005) - for which Australian firms provided sound post-production services. We show how these films instanciate and expand Korean, Australian, diasporic and transnational filmmaking.

Postpartum care for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women with Gestational Diabetes Mellitus across urban, rural and remote locations : a protocol for a cohort linkage study

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing, along with obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM), with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people* in Australia particularly affected. GDM causes serious complications in pregnancy, birth, and the longer term, for both women and their infants. Women diagnosed with GDM have an eightfold risk of developing T2DM after pregnancy, compared with women who have not had GDM. Indigenous women have an even higher risk, at a younger age, and progress more quickly from GDM to T2DM, compared to non-Indigenous women. If left undetected and untreated, T2DM can lead to heart disease, stroke, renal disease, kidney failure, amputations and blindness. A GDM diagnosis offers a ‘window of opportunity’ for diabetes health interventions and it is vital that acceptable and effective prevention, treatment, and post-pregnancy care are provided. Low rates of post-pregnancy screening for T2DM are reported among non-Aboriginal women in Australia and among Indigenous women in other countries, however data for Aboriginal women are scarce. Breastfeeding, a healthy diet, and exercise can also help to prevent T2DM, and together with T2DM screening are recommended elements of ‘post-pregnancy care’ for women with GDM, This paper describes methods for a data linkage study to investigate rates of post-pregnancy care among women with GDM. Methods/Design: This retrospective cohort includes all women who gave birth at Cairns Base Hospital in Far North Queensland, Australia, from 2004 to 2010, coded as having GDM in the Cairns Base Hospital Clinical Coding system. Data linkage is being conducted with the Queensland Perinatal Data Collection, and three laboratories. Hospital medical records are being reviewed to validate the accuracy of GDM case ascertainment, and gather information on breastfeeding and provision of dietary advice. Multiple logistic regression is being used to compare post-pregnancy care between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women, while adjusting for other factors may impact on post-pregnancy care. Survival analysis is being used to estimate the rates of progression from GDM to T2DM. Discussion: There are challenges to collecting post-pregnancy data for women with GDM. However, research is urgently needed to ensure adequate post-pregnancy care is provided for women with GDM in Australia.

A polymorphism in the HLA-DPB1 gene is associated with susceptibility to multiple sclerosis

We conducted an association study across the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) complex to identify loci associated with multiple sclerosis (MS). Comparing 1927 SNPs in 1618 MS cases and 3413 controls of European ancestry, we identified seven SNPs that were independently associated with MS conditional on the others (each ). All associations were significant in an independent replication cohort of 2212 cases and 2251 controls () and were highly significant in the combined dataset (). The associated SNPs included proxies for HLA-DRB1*15:01 and HLA-DRB1*03:01, and SNPs in moderate linkage disequilibrium (LD) with HLA-A*02:01, HLA-DRB1*04:01 and HLA-DRB1*13:03. We also found a strong association with rs9277535 in the class II gene HLA-DPB1 (discovery set , replication set , combined ). HLA-DPB1 is located centromeric of the more commonly typed class II genes HLA-DRB1, -DQA1 and -DQB1. It is separated from these genes by a recombination hotspot, and the association is not affected by conditioning on genotypes at DRB1, DQA1 and DQB1. Hence rs9277535 represents an independent MS-susceptibility locus of genome-wide significance. It is correlated with the HLA-DPB1*03:01 allele, which has been implicated previously in MS in smaller studies. Further genotyping in large datasets is required to confirm and resolve this association.

The voices of the exegesis : Composing the speech genres of the practitioner-researcher into a connective thesis

Postgraduate candidates in the creative arts encounter unique challenges when writing an exegesis (the written document that accompanies creative work as a thesis). As a practitioner-researcher, they must adopt a dual perspective–looking out towards an established field of research, exemplars and theories, as well as inwards towards their experiential creative processes and practice. This dual orientation provides clear benefits, for it enables them to situate the research within its field and make objective claims for the research methodologies and outcomes while maintaining an intimate, voiced relationship with the practice. However, a dual orientation introduces considerable complexities in the writing. It requires a reconciliation of multi-perspectival subject positions: the disinterested academic posture of the observer/ethnographer/analyst/theorist at times; and the invested, subjective stance the practitioner/producer at others. It requires the author to negotiate a range of writing styles and speech genres–from the formal, polemical style of the theorist to the personal, questioning and emotive voice of reflexivity. Moreover, these multi-variant orientations, subject positions, styles and voices must be integrated into a unified and coherent text. In this chapter I offer a conceptual framework and strategies for approaching this relatively new genre of thesis. I begin by summarizing the characteristics of what has begun to emerge as the predominant model of exegesis (the dual-oriented ‘Connective’ exegesis). Framing it against theoretical and philosophical understandings of polyvocality and matrixicality, I go on to point to recent textual models that provide precedents for connecting differently oriented perspectives, subjectivities and voices. I then turn to emergent archives of practice-led research to explain how the challenge of writing a ‘Connective’ exegesis has so far been resolved by higher degree research (HDR) candidates. Exemplars illustrate a range of strategies they have used to compose a multi-perspectival text, reconcile the divergent subject positions of the practitioner researcher, and harmonize the speech genres of a ployvocal text.

Genome-wide association study identifies new multiple sclerosis susceptibility loci on chromosomes 12 and 20

To identify multiple sclerosis (MS) susceptibility loci, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 1,618 cases and used shared data for 3,413 controls. We performed replication in an independent set of 2,256 cases and 2,310 controls, for a total of 3,874 cases and 5,723 controls. We identified risk-associated SNPs on chromosome 12q13-14 (rs703842, P = 5.4 x 10(-11); rs10876994, P = 2.7 x 10(-10); rs12368653, P = 1.0 x 10(-7)) and upstream of CD40 on chromosome 20q13 (rs6074022, P = 1.3 x 10(-7); rs1569723, P = 2.9 x 10(-7)). Both loci are also associated with other autoimmune diseases. We also replicated several known MS associations (HLA-DR15, P = 7.0 x 10(-184); CD58, P = 9.6 x 10(-8); EVI5-RPL5, P = 2.5 x 10(-6); IL2RA, P = 7.4 x 10(-6); CLEC16A, P = 1.1 x 10(-4); IL7R, P = 1.3 x 10(-3); TYK2, P = 3.5 x 10(-3)) and observed a statistical interaction between SNPs in EVI5-RPL5 and HLA-DR15 (P = 0.001).