808 resultados para Economic-evaluation
Resumo:
Simulating surface wind over complex terrain is a challenge in regional climate modelling. Therefore, this study aims at identifying a set-up of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model that minimises system- atic errors of surface winds in hindcast simulations. Major factors of the model configuration are tested to find a suitable set-up: the horizontal resolution, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterisation scheme and the way the WRF is nested to the driving data set. Hence, a number of sensitivity simulations at a spatial resolution of 2 km are carried out and compared to observations. Given the importance of wind storms, the analysis is based on case studies of 24 historical wind storms that caused great economic damage in Switzerland. Each of these events is downscaled using eight different model set-ups, but sharing the same driving data set. The results show that the lack of representation of the unresolved topography leads to a general overestimation of wind speed in WRF. However, this bias can be substantially reduced by using a PBL scheme that explicitly considers the effects of non-resolved topography, which also improves the spatial structure of wind speed over Switzerland. The wind direction, although generally well reproduced, is not very sensitive to the PBL scheme. Further sensitivity tests include four types of nesting methods: nesting only at the boundaries of the outermost domain, analysis nudging, spectral nudging, and the so-called re-forecast method, where the simulation is frequently restarted. These simulations show that restricting the freedom of the model to develop large-scale disturbances slightly increases the temporal agreement with the observations, at the same time that it further reduces the overestimation of wind speed, especially for maximum wind peaks. The model performance is also evaluated in the outermost domains, where the resolution is coarser. The results demonstrate the important role of horizontal resolution, where the step from 6 to 2 km significantly improves model performance. In summary, the combination of a grid size of 2 km, the non-local PBL scheme modified to explicitly account for non-resolved orography, as well as analysis or spectral nudging, is a superior combination when dynamical downscaling is aimed at reproducing real wind fields.
Resumo:
Soil degradation is widespread in the Ethiopian Highlands. Its negative impacts on soil productivity contribute to the extreme poverty of the rural population. Soil conservation is propagated as a means of reducing soil erosion, however, it is a costly investment for small-scale farming households. The present study is an attempt to show whether or not selected mechanical Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) technologies are profitable from a farmer’s point of view. A financial Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is carried out to assess whether or not the considered SWC technologies are profitable from a farmer’s point of view. The CBA is supplemented by an evaluation of aspects from the economic and institutional environment. Whether or not soil conservation is profitable from a farmer’s point of view depends on a broad range of factors from the ecological, economic, political, institutional and socio-cultural sphere and also depends on the technology and the prevailing farming system. Because these factors are closely interlinked, it is often not sufficient to change or influence one to make SWC profitable. Several recommendations are formulated with regard to improving the profitability of SWC investments from a farmer’s point of view. Because the reasons for unsustainable resource use are manifold and highly interlinked, only a multi-stakeholder, multi-level and multi-objective approach is likely to offer solutions that address the underlying problems adequately.
Resumo:
Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.
Resumo:
Early Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs) had their origin in humanitarian motives, and there was little concern for their cost/benefit ratios; however, as some programs began accumulating data and analyzing it over time, even with single variables such as absenteeism, it became apparent that the humanitarian reasons for a program could be reinforced by cost savings particularly when the existence of the program was subject to justification.^ Today there is general agreement that cost/benefit analyses of EAPs are desirable, but the specific models for such analyses, particularly those making use of sophisticated but simple computer based data management systems, are few.^ The purpose of this research and development project was to develop a method, a design, and a prototype for gathering managing and presenting information about EAPS. This scheme provides information retrieval and analyses relevant to such aspects of EAP operations as: (1) EAP personnel activities, (2) Supervisory training effectiveness, (3) Client population demographics, (4) Assessment and Referral Effectiveness, (5) Treatment network efficacy, (6) Economic worth of the EAP.^ This scheme has been implemented and made operational at The University of Texas Employee Assistance Programs for more than three years.^ Application of the scheme in the various programs has defined certain variables which remained necessary in all programs. Depending on the degree of aggressiveness for data acquisition maintained by program personnel, other program specific variables are also defined. ^
Resumo:
Dental caries is a common preventable childhood disease leading to severe physical, mental and economic repercussions for children and their families if left untreated. A needs assessment in Harris County reported that 45.9% of second graders had untreated dental caries. In order to address this growing problem, the School Sealant Program (SSP), a primary preventive initiative, was launched by the Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) to provide oral health education, and underutilized dental preventive services to second grade children from participating Local School Districts (LSDs). ^ To determine the effectiveness and efficiency of the SSP, a program evaluation was conducted by the HDHHS between September 2007 and June 2008 for the Oral Health Education (OHE) component of the SSP. The objective of the evaluation was to assess short term changes in oral health knowledge of the participants and determine if these changes, if any, were due to the OHE sessions. An 8-item multiple choice pre/post test was developed for this purpose and administered to the participants before and immediately after the OHE sessions. ^ The present project analyzed pre and post test data of 1,088 second graders from 22 participating schools. Changes in overall and topic-specific knowledge of the program participants before and after the OHE sessions were analyzed using the Wilcoxon's signed rank test. ^ Results. The overall knowledge assessment showed a statistically significant (p <0.001) increase in the dental health knowledge of the participants after the oral health education sessions. Participants in the higher scoring category (7-8 correct responses) increased from 9.5% at baseline to 60.8% after the education sessions. Overall knowledge increased in all school regions with the highest knowledge gains seen in the Central and South regions. Males and females had similar knowledge gains. Significant knowledge differences were also found for each of the topic specific categories (functions of teeth, healthy diet, healthy habits, dental sealants; p<0.001) indicating an increase in topic specific knowledge of the participants post-health education sessions. ^ Conclusions. The OHE sessions were successful in increasing the short term oral health knowledge of the participants. ^
Resumo:
The study of obesity and its causes has evolved into one of the most important public health issues in the United States (Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, 2007). Obesity is linked to several chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and some cancers (National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, 2008b) and the public health concern resides in the present morbidity and mortality associated with obesity and related conditions (National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, 1998). Furthermore, obesity and its related conditions present economic challenges to employers in terms of medical health care, sick leave, short-term disability and long-term disability benefits utilized by employees (Østbye, Dement, and Krause, 2007). Recently, articles covering intervention programs targeting obesity in the occupational setting have surfaced in the body of scientific literature. The increased interest in this area stems from the fact that employees in the United States spend more time in the work environment than many industrialized nations, including Japan and most of Western Europe (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2006). Moreover, scientific literature supports the idea of investing in healthy human capital to promote productivity and output from employees (Berger, Howell, Nicholson, & Sharda, 2003). The time spent in the work environment, the business need for healthy employees, and the public health concern create an opportunity for planning, implementation and analysis of interventions for effectiveness. This paper aims to identify those intervention programs that focus on the occupational setting related to obesity, to analyze the overall effect of diet, physical fitness and behavioral change interventions targeting overweight and obesity in the occupational setting, and to evaluate the details and effectiveness of components, such as, intervention setting, target participant group, content, industry and length of follow up. Once strengths and weaknesses of the interventions are evaluated, ideas will be suggested for implementation in the future.^
Resumo:
Background: The Sacred Vocation Program (SVP) (Amick B, Karff S., 2003) helps workers find meaning, spirituality, and see their job as a sacred vocation. The SVP is based on Participatory Action Research (PAR) (Minkler & Wallerstein, 1997; Parker & Wall, 1998). This study aims to evaluate the SVP implemented at the Baylor Healthcare System, Dallas-Fort Worth. ^ Methods: The study design is a qualitative design. We used data from study participants who have participated in focus groups. During these focus groups specific questions and probes regarding the effectiveness of the SVP have been asked. We analyzed the focus groups and derived themes. ^ Results: Results of this study demonstrate SVP helps graduates feel valued and important. The SVP has improved meaningful work for employees and improved a sense of belonging for participants. The program has also increased participant spirituality. The coping techniques developed during a SVP class helps participants deal with stressful situations. The SVP faces challenges of implementation fidelity, poor communication, program viability in tough economic times and implementation of phase II. Another sustainability challenge for SVP is the perception of the program being a religious one versus a spiritual program. ^ Conclusion: Several aspects of the SVP work. The phase I of SVP is successful in improving meaningful work and a sense of belonging for participants. The coping techniques help participants deal with difficult work situations. The SVP can increase effectiveness through improvements in implementation fidelity, communication and leadership commitment. ^
Resumo:
The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.
Resumo:
Since the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) program began in 1992, activities have expanded and flourished. The three economic corridors are composed of the East-West, North-South, and Southern; these are the most important parts of the flagship program. This article presents an evaluation of these economic corridors and their challenges in accordance with the regional distribution of population and income, population pyramids of member countries, and trade relations of member economies.
Resumo:
Politicians, social scientists and general readers have noted in both Cuban and international academic forums and periodicals that the well-being enjoyed by the Cuban people in the 1980s has been seriously compromised since the economic crisis of the 1990s. Even for the most skeptical of observers it is clear that this worsening of conditions can be attributed not only to external factors, such as the breakup of the international socialist system, the tightening of the US blockade, and the worldwide economic crisis suffered by underdeveloped countries, but also to internal factors that have kept the country from taking full advantage of the human and material potential available on the island. Although Cuba is currently experiencing an economic recovery from the collapse in GDP in the mid 1990s following the collapse of its ties with the Socialist Bloc, it continues to maintain high import coefficients due to longstanding structural.
Resumo:
We estimate the economic impacts of irrigation using the panel data set from rural Thailand. We employed difference-in-differences estimation and showed that tertiary irrigation has unexpected impacts. Contrary to the local experts predicitions that it should have substantial productivity impacts as it allows better water controls for farmers, we found largely zero profitability impacts. Another unexpected finding is that, while profitability is not affected, we see an increase in cultivation probability with the construction of tertiary canals. This is observed in both wet and dry seasons. This finding suggests that Thai farmers are willing to expand operation scale once they get water.
Resumo:
Accreditation models in the international context mainly consider the evaluation of learning outcomes and the ability of programs (or higher education institutions) to achieve the educational objectives stated in their mission. However, it is not clear if these objectives and therefore their outcomes satisfy real national and regional needs, a critical point in engineering master's programs, especially in developing countries. The aim of this paper is to study the importance of the local relevancy evaluation of these programs and to analyze the main models of quality assurance and accreditation bodies of USA, Europe and Latin America, in order to ascertain whether the relevancy is evaluated or not. After a literature review, we found that in a free-market economic context and international education, the accreditation of master’s programs follows an international accreditation model, and doesn´t take in account in most cases criteria and indicators for local relevancy. It concludes that it is necessary both, international accreditation to ensure the effectiveness of the program (achievement of learning outcomes) and the national accreditation through which it could ensure local relevancy of programs, for which we are giving some indicators.
Resumo:
In arid countries worldwide, social conflicts between irrigation-based human development and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems are widespread and attract many public debates. This research focuses on the analysis of water and agricultural policies aimed at conserving groundwater resources and maintaining rurallivelihoods in a basin in Spain's central arid region. Intensive groundwater mining for irrigation has caused overexploitation of the basin's large aquifer, the degradation of reputed wetlands and has given rise to notable social conflicts over the years. With the aim of tackling the multifaceted socio-ecological interactions of complex water systems, the methodology used in this study consists in a novel integration into a common platform of an economic optimization model and a hydrology model WEAP (Water Evaluation And Planning system). This robust tool is used to analyze the spatial and temporal effects of different water and agricultural policies under different climate scenarios. It permits the prediction of different climate and policy outcomes across farm types (water stress impacts and adaptation), at basin's level (aquifer recovery), and along the policies’ implementation horizon (short and long run). Results show that the region's current quota-based water policies may contribute to reduce water consumption in the farms but will not be able to recover the aquifer and will inflict income losses to the rural communities. This situation would worsen in case of drought. Economies of scale and technology are evidenced as larger farms with cropping diversification and those equipped with modern irrigation will better adapt to water stress conditions. However, the long-term sustainability of the aquifer and the maintenance of rurallivelihoods will be attained only if additional policy measures are put in place such as the control of illegal abstractions and the establishing of a water bank. Within the policy domain, the research contributes to the new sustainable development strategy of the EU by concluding that, in water-scarce regions, effective integration of water and agricultural policies is essential for achieving the water protection objectives of the EU policies. Therefore, the design and enforcement of well-balanced region-specific polices is a major task faced by policy makers for achieving successful water management that will ensure nature protection and human development at tolerable social costs. From a methodological perspective, this research initiative contributes to better address hydrological questions as well as economic and social issues in complex water and human systems. Its integrated vision provides a valuable illustration to inform water policy and management decisions within contexts of water-related conflicts worldwide.
Resumo:
Plant diseases represent a major economic and environmental problem in agriculture and forestry. Upon infection, a plant develops symptoms that affect different parts of the plant causing a significant agronomic impact. As many such diseases spread in time over the whole crop, a system for early disease detection can aid to mitigate the losses produced by the plant diseases and can further prevent their spread [1]. In recent years, several mathematical algorithms of search have been proposed [2,3] that could be used as a non-invasive, fast, reliable and cost-effective methods to localize in space infectious focus by detecting changes in the profile of volatile organic compounds. Tracking scents and locating odor sources is a major challenge in robotics, on one hand because odour plumes consists of non-uniform intermittent odour patches dispersed by the wind and on the other hand because of the lack of precise and reliable odour sensors. Notwithstanding, we have develop a simple robotic platform to study the robustness and effectiveness of different search algorithms [4], with respect to specific problems to be found in their further application in agriculture, namely errors committed in the motion and sensing and to the existence of spatial constraints due to land topology or the presence of obstacles.
Resumo:
Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.