The impact of climate change on the brazilian agriculture: a ricardian study at microregion level.

We use at microregion level from the Brazilian Census years 1975, 1985, 1995 and 2006 to assess the impact of climate change on Brazilian agriculture using a Ricardian model. We estimate the Ricardian model using repeated cross sections for each Census Year, a pooled model and a twostage model based on Hsiao 2003. Results show that a marginal increase of temperature is harmful for agriculture in all regions of Brazil, with the exception of the South. The most negative impacts are felt in the North and in the North-East. There is mixed evidence on the effect of a marginal impact of precipitation. Additional rainfall is beneficial in South, South-East and in the Center-West. It is harmful in other regions. Impact estimates with three GCM scenarios generated using the A2 SRES emission scenario show that climate change is expected to be generally harmful in 2060. In 2100 only the climate change scenario generated by the Hadley HADCM3 model predicts negative impacts; the MIMR model predicts that climate change will not significantly affect land values while the NCPCM model predicts significant beneficial effects using the Hsiao model and nonsignificant beneficial effects using the pooled model. Among Brazilian regions, only the South and some cases the South-East are expected to benefit from climate change.

Public internet access revisited

In recent years the Australian government has dedicated considerable project funds to establish public Internet access points in rural and regional communities. Drawing on data from a major Australian study of the social and economic impact of new technologies on rural areas, this paper explores some of the difficulties rural communities have faced in setting up public access points and sustaining them beyond their project funding. Of particular concern is the way that economic sustainability has been positioned as a measure of the success of such ventures. Government funding has been allocated on the basis of these rural public access points becoming economically self-sustaining. This is problematic on a number of counts. It is therefore argued that these public access points should be reconceptualised as essential community infrastructure like schools and libraries, rather than potential economic enterprises. Author Keywords: Author Keywords: Internet; Public access; Sustainability; Digital divide; Rural Australia

Public sector evaluation of festivals and special events

This research project set out to explore Unitary Authority (UA) involvement in festivals and special events across Wales. It considers the level and nature of UA involvement and investigates activity by event purpose; reasons for, and characteristics of, UA engagement; and, crucially, the extent and nature of event evaluation. The study’s aim was to begin the development of a baseline of information for further research into the growing use of festivals and special events as a strategy for local economic development in Wales. A quantitative survey approach facilitated a comprehensive snapshot of UA responses whilst also incorporating discursive elements. A telephone survey was designed and undertaken with representatives of all 22 UA departments responsible for festivals and events in Wales. The research reveals a significant level of festival and special event activity across Wales, supported primarily for its perceived socio-cultural value. However, evaluation would appear to be focused on improving processes and measuring economic outputs rather than assessing whether socio-cultural objectives are being achieved. Whilst overwhelmingly positive about efforts to improve approaches to evaluation, respondents held clear views about the complications most likely to hamper any such efforts. These responses focused upon the need for flexibility, cost effectiveness and comparability across festival and special event typologies.

Constructing the hallucinations of psychosis in Virtual Reality

Schizophrenia is a mental disorder affecting 1-2% of the population and it is estimated 12-16% of hospital beds in Australia are occupied by patients with psychosis. The suicide rate for patients with this diagnosis is higher than that of the general population. Any technique which enhances training and treatment of this disorder will have a significant societal and economic impact. A significant research project using Virtual Reality (VR), in which both visual and auditory hallucinations are simulated, is currently being undertaken at the University of Queensland. The virtual environments created by the new software are expected to enhance the experiential learning outcomes of medical students by enabling them to experience the inner world of a patient with psychosis. In addition the Virtual Environment has the potential to provide a technologically advanced therapeutic setting where behavioral, exposure therapies can be conducted with exactly controlled exposure stimuli with an expected reduction in risk of harm. This paper reports on the current work of the project, previous stages of software development and future educational and clinical applications of the Virtual Environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Scottsdale Loop 101 automated speed enforcement demonstration program

Speeding is recognized as a major contributing factor in traffic crashes. In order to reduce speed-related crashes, the city of Scottsdale, Arizona implemented the first fixed-camera photo speed enforcement program (SEP) on a limited access freeway in the US. The 9-month demonstration program spanning from January 2006 to October 2006 was implemented on a 6.5 mile urban freeway segment of Arizona State Route 101 running through Scottsdale. This paper presents the results of a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the SEP on speeding behavior, crashes, and the economic impact of crashes. The impact on speeding behavior was estimated using generalized least square estimation, in which the observed speeds and the speeding frequencies during the program period were compared to those during other periods. The impact of the SEP on crashes was estimated using 3 evaluation methods: a before-and-after (BA) analysis using a comparison group, a BA analysis with traffic flow correction, and an empirical Bayes BA analysis with time-variant safety. The analysis results reveal that speeding detection frequencies (speeds> or =76 mph) increased by a factor of 10.5 after the SEP was (temporarily) terminated. Average speeds in the enforcement zone were reduced by about 9 mph when the SEP was implemented, after accounting for the influence of traffic flow. All crash types were reduced except rear-end crashes, although the estimated magnitude of impact varies across estimation methods (and their corresponding assumptions). When considering Arizona-specific crash related injury costs, the SEP is estimated to yield about $17 million in annual safety benefits.

Assessing wet crashes for the skid resistance management of road assets

Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$15 billion annually whilst the US estimates an economic impact of around US$ 230 billion on its network. Worldwide economic cost of road crashes is estimated to be around US$ 518 billion each year. Road accidents occur due to a number of factors including driver behaviour, geometric alignment, vehicle characteristics, environmental impacts, and the type and condition of the road surfacing. Skid resistance is considered one of the most important road surface characteristics because it has a direct effect on traffic safety. In 2005, Austroads (the Association of Australian and New Zealand Road Transport and Traffic Authorities) published a guideline for the management of skid resistance and Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) developed a skid resistance management plan (SRMP). The current QDMR strategy is based on rationale analytical methodology supported by field inspection with related asset management decision tools. The Austroads’s guideline and QDMR's skid resistance management plan have prompted QDMR to review its skid resistance management practice. As a result, a joint research project involving QDMR, Queensland University of Technology (QUT) and the Corporative Research Centre for Integrated Engineering Asset Management (CRC CIEAM) was formed. The research project aims at investigating whether there is significant relationship between road crashes and skid resistance on Queensland’s road networks. If there is, the current skid resistance management practice of QDMR will be reviewed and appropriate skid resistance investigatory levels will be recommended. This paper presents analysis results in assessing the relationship between wet crashes and skid resistance on Queensland roads. Attributes considered in the analysis include surface types, annual average daily traffic (AADT), speed and seal age.

Improving road safety through deterrence-based initiatives : a review of research

The efficacy of road safety countermeasures to deter motorists from engaging in illegal behaviours is extremely important when considering the personal and economic impact of road accidents on the community. Within many countries, deterrence theory has remained a cornerstone to criminology and criminal justice policy, particularly within the field of road safety, as policy makers and enforcement agencies attempt to increase perceptions regarding the certainty, severity and swiftness of sanctions for those who engage in illegal motoring behaviours. Using the Australian experience (particularly the tremendous amount of research into drink driving), the current paper reviews the principles underpinning deterrence theory, the utilisation of the approach within some contemporary road safety initiatives (e.g., Random Breath Testing) as well as highlights some methods to enhance a deterrent effect. The paper also provides direction for future deterrence-based research, in particular, considering the powerful impact of non-legal sanctions, punishment avoidance as well as creating culturally embedded behavioural change.

Training for lifestyle entrepreneurs

Many developed countries have issues with the movement of populations away from rural areas. There has been an active move towards 'value adding' in rural areas, and in particular, the development of tourism activities, to counter this trend. The purpose of this paper is to document the curriculum development process that was engaged in, in the design, delivery and outcomes of a programme designed to encourage and equip rural entrepreneurs to extend into the tourism and hospitality industries. These entrepreneurs operate in Hedmark Region of Norway and the training took place in Brisbane, Australia. The development and delivery of the training programme took place in Norway and Australia. The methodology is qualitative and it is hoped the research will lead to a longitudinal study of the impact of lifestyle entrepreneurs on local economic development in rural areas. The action research process that was engaged in means that the entrepreneurs are active participants in the research, and the quality of their feedback and willingness to discuss their changed behaviour are critical to both evaluating the impact of the programme and the potential for further study on the economic impact of their activities. The development process and the nature of the curriculum used for these entrepreneurs may well provide insights into effective training for lifestyle entrepreneurs in other contexts. The participants were asked to evaluate the programme immediately on its conclusion and six months after the programme when they were interviewed in their place of operation.

Policy analysis of disaster health management in China

Humankind has been dealing with all kinds of disasters since the dawn of time. The risk and impact of disasters producing mass casualties worldwide is increasing, due partly to global warming as well as to increased population growth, increased density and the aging population. China, as a country with a large population, vast territory, and complex climatic and geographical conditions, has been plagued by all kinds of disasters. Disaster health management has traditionally been a relatively arcane discipline within public health. However, SARS, Avian Influenza, and earthquakes and floods, along with the need to be better prepared for the Olympic Games in China has brought disasters, their management and their potential for large scale health consequences on populations to the attention of the public, the government and the international community alike. As a result significant improvements were made to the disaster management policy framework, as well as changes to systems and structures to incorporate an improved disaster management focus. This involved the upgrade of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) throughout China to monitor and better control the health consequences particularly of infectious disease outbreaks. However, as can be seen in the Southern China Snow Storm and Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008, there remains a lack of integrated disaster management and efficient medical rescue, which has been costly in terms of economics and health for China. In the context of a very large and complex country, there is a need to better understand whether these changes have resulted in effective management of the health impacts of such incidents. To date, the health consequences of disasters, particularly in China, have not been a major focus of study. The main aim of this study is to analyse and evaluate disaster health management policy in China and in particular, its ability to effectively manage the health consequences of disasters. Flood has been selected for this study as it is a common and significant disaster type in China and throughout the world. This information will then be used to guide conceptual understanding of the health consequences of floods. A secondary aim of the study is to compare disaster health management in China and Australia as these countries differ in their length of experience in having a formalised policy response. The final aim of the study is to determine the extent to which Walt and Gilson’s (1994) model of policy explains how disaster management policy in China was developed and implemented after SARS in 2003 to the present day. This study has utilised a case study methodology. A document analysis and literature search of Chinese and English sources was undertaken to analyse and produce a chronology of disaster health management policy in China. Additionally, three detailed case studies of flood health management in China were undertaken along with three case studies in Australia in order to examine the policy response and any health consequences stemming from the floods. A total of 30 key international disaster health management experts were surveyed to identify fundamental elements and principles of a successful policy framework for disaster health management. Key policy ingredients were identified from the literature, the case-studies and the survey of experts. Walt and Gilson (1994)’s policy model that focuses on the actors, content, context and process of policy was found to be a useful model for analysing disaster health management policy development and implementation in China. This thesis is divided into four parts. Part 1 is a brief overview of the issues and context to set the scene. Part 2 examines the conceptual and operational context including the international literature, government documents and the operational environment for disaster health management in China. Part 3 examines primary sources of information to inform the analysis. This involves two key studies: • A comparative analysis of the management of floods in China and Australia • A survey of international experts in the field of disaster management so as to inform the evaluation of the policy framework in existence in China and the criteria upon which the expression of that policy could be evaluated Part 4 describes the key outcomes of this research which include: • A conceptual framework for describing the health consequences of floods • A conceptual framework for disaster health management • An evaluation of the disaster health management policy and its implementation in China. The research outcomes clearly identified that the most significant improvements are to be derived from improvements in the generic management of disasters, rather than the health aspects alone. Thus, the key findings and recommendations tend to focus on generic issues. The key findings of this research include the following: • The health consequences of floods may be described in terms of time as ‘immediate’, ‘medium term’ and ‘long term’ and also in relation to causation as ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ consequences of the flood. These two aspects form a matrix which in turn guides management responses. • Disaster health management in China requires a more comprehensive response throughout the cycle of prevention, preparedness, response and recovery but it also requires a more concentrated effort on policy implementation to ensure the translation of the policy framework into effective incident management. • The policy framework in China is largely of international standard with a sound legislative base. In addition the development of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has provided the basis for a systematic approach to health consequence management. However, the key weaknesses in the current system include: o The lack of a key central structure to provide the infrastructure with vital support for policy development, implementation and evaluation. o The lack of well-prepared local response teams similar to local government based volunteer groups in Australia. • The system lacks structures to coordinate government action at the local level. The result of this is a poorly coordinated local response and lack of clarity regarding the point at which escalation of the response to higher levels of government is advisable. These result in higher levels of risk and negative health impacts. The key recommendations arising from this study are: 1. Disaster health management policy in China should be enhanced by incorporating disaster management considerations into policy development, and by requiring a disaster management risk analysis and disaster management impact statement for development proposals. 2. China should transform existing organizations to establish a central organisation similar to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the USA or the Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in Australia. This organization would be responsible for leading nationwide preparedness through planning, standards development, education and incident evaluation and to provide operational support to the national and local government bodies in the event of a major incident. 3. China should review national and local plans to reflect consistency in planning, and to emphasize the advantages of the integrated planning process. 4. Enhance community resilience through community education and the development of a local volunteer organization. China should develop a national strategy which sets direction and standards in regard to education and training, and requires system testing through exercises. Other initiatives may include the development of a local volunteer capability with appropriate training to assist professional response agencies such as police and fire services in a major incident. An existing organisation such as the Communist Party may be an appropriate structure to provide this response in a cost effective manner. 5. Continue development of professional emergency services, particularly ambulance, to ensure an effective infrastructure is in place to support the emergency response in disasters. 6. Funding for disaster health management should be enhanced, not only from government, but also from other sources such as donations and insurance. It is necessary to provide a more transparent mechanism to ensure the funding is disseminated according to the needs of the people affected. 7. Emphasis should be placed on prevention and preparedness, especially on effective disaster warnings. 8. China should develop local disaster health management infrastructure utilising existing resources wherever possible. Strategies for enhancing local infrastructure could include the identification of local resources (including military resources) which could be made available to support disaster responses. It should develop operational procedures to access those resources. Implementation of these recommendations should better position China to reduce the significant health consequences experienced each year from major incidents such as floods and to provide an increased level of confidence to the community about the country’s capacity to manage such events.

An object oriented road asset information model

Preservation and enhancement of transportation infrastructure is critical to continuous economic development in Australia. Of particular importance are the road assets infrastructure, due to their high costs of setting up and their social and economic impact on the national economy. Continuous availability of road assets, however, is contingent upon their effective design, condition monitoring, maintenance, and renovation and upgrading. However, in order to achieve this data exchange, integration, and interoperability is required across municipal boundaries. On the other hand, there are no agreed reference frameworks that consistently describe road infrastructure assets. As a consequence, specifications and technical solutions being chosen to manage road assets do not provide adequate detail and quality of information to support asset lifecycle management processes and decisions taken are based on perception not reality. This paper presents a road asset information model, which works as reference framework to, link other kinds of information with asset information; integrate different data suppliers; and provide a foundation for service driven integrated information framework for community infrastructure and asset management.

The Definition of Charity and its Nexus with Tax Preference Issues

Charity, since the Reformation, has been secularised to the extent that the continued use by the courts of analogies to a four hundred year old statute in order to determine charitable purpose with respect to tax exempt status, is giving rise to absurd situations. Tax exempt status is generally assigned by an agent of the government, for example the Inland Revenue Department in New Zealand, without any evaluation of the impact of the activities of the charitable organisation on social or economic policies. It is only when the activities of the charitable organisation are challenged in the courts, that the charitable organisation may lose its privileged position. From this brief analysis, it can be seen that the situation which is developing is a classic case of 'putting the cart before the horse'. A recent New Zealand case demonstrates the folly of assigning tax exempt status without first having examined the charitable purposes of the trust, and without having conjointly undertaken an evaluation of the social and economic impact of that charitable organisation. It is apparent that there is a need for substantial changes in charity law, with respect to charitable purpose and fiscal issues, in today's social and economic climate.

The GST Compliance Costs Of Nonprofit Organisations

On 2 December 1998, the Federal Government tabled their policy paper entitled Regulation Impact Statement for the Introduction of a Goods and Services Tax (RIS) in the House of Representatives. The Federal Government predicted that total gross GST compliance costs to Australian businesses in the first year of implementation would be approximately $1,912 million (or $1,195 per firm). Furthermore, it is estimated that the recurrent net compliance costs will be much lower at $131 per firm. Whilst the government made brief references to charitable organisations in their analysis, it stated that the compliance costs faced by nonprofits would, in substance, be no different to the compliance costs faced by businesses or government departments. This paper examines the RIS process in relation to nonprofit organisations in the context of recent taxation legislation affecting nonprofit organisations. It argues that the assumption that nonprofit compliance costs are similar to government and business costs is flawed and makes a case for the RIS process to be reformed to include more appropriate assessments of the impact of legislation on nonprofit enterprises.

Productivity and time use during occupational therapy and nutrition/dietetics clinical education : a cohort study

Background: Currently in the Australian higher education sector higher productivity from allied health clinical education placements are a contested issue. This paper will report results of a study that investigated output changes associated with occupational therapy and nutrition/dietetics clinical education placements in Queensland, Australia. Supervisors’ and students’ time use during placements and how this changes for supervisors compared to when students are not present in the workplace is also presented. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cohort design was used with students from four Queensland universities, and their supervisors employed by Queensland Health. There was an increasing trend in the number of occasions of service delivered when the students were present, and a statistically significant increase in the daily mean length of occasions of service delivered during the placement compared to pre-placement levels. For project-based placements that were not directly involved in patient care, supervisors’ project activity time decreased during placements, with students undertaking considerably more time in project activities. Conclusions/Significance: A novel method for estimating productivity and time use changes during clinical education programs for allied health disciplines has been applied. During clinical education placements there was a net increase in outputs, suggesting supervisors engage in longer consultations with patients for the purpose of training students, while maintaining patient numbers. Other activities are reduced. This paper is the first time these data have been shown and form a good basis for future assessments of the economic impact of student placements for allied health disciplines.

The cost of carbon : capital market effects of the proposed emission trading scheme (ETS)

In March 2008, the Australian Government announced its intention to introduce a national Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), now expected to start in 2015. This impending development provides an ideal setting to investigate the impact an ETS in Australia will have on the market valuation of Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) firms. This is the first empirical study into the pricing effects of the ETS in Australia. Primarily, we hypothesize that firm value will be negatively related to a firm's carbon intensity profile. That is, there will be a greater impact on firm value for high carbon emitters in the period prior (2007) to the introduction of the ETS, whether for reasons relating to the existence of unbooked liabilities associated with future compliance and/or abatement costs, or for reasons relating to reduced future earnings. Using a sample of 58 Australian listed firms (constrained by the current availability of emissions data) which comprise larger, more profitable and less risky listed Australian firms, we first undertake an event study focusing on five distinct information events argued to impact the probability of the proposed ETS being enacted. Here, we find direct evidence that the capital market is indeed pricing the proposed ETS. Second, using a modified version of the Ohlson (1995) valuation model, we undertake a valuation analysis designed not only to complement the event study results, but more importantly to provide insights into the capital market's assessment of the magnitude of the economic impact of the proposed ETS as reflected in market capitalization. Here, our results show that the market assesses the most carbon intensive sample firms a market value decrement relative to other sample firms of between 7% and 10% of market capitalization. Further, based on the carbon emission profile of the sample firms we imply a ‘future carbon permit price’ of between AUD$17 per tonne and AUD$26 per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted. This study is more precise than industry reports, which set a carbon price of between AUD$15 to AUD$74 per tonne.

Effective community engagement for project success : building professionals as active participants during the construction phase of projects

Growing community concerns about the ecological, social, cultural and economic impact of housing and urban projects poses new challenges for those who have to deliver them. It is important that these concerns are addressed as part of the community engagement processes on projects. Community engagement is traditionally perceived as the purview of planners and disconnected from the building construction process. This is despite most project approval processes mandating on-going community engagement over the project’s entire lifetime. There is evidence that point to a culture of ambiguity and ambivalence among building professionals about their roles, responsibilities and expectations of community engagement during the construction phase of projects. This has contributed to a culture of distrust between communities and the construction industry. There is a clear need to build capacity among building professionals to empower them as active participants in community engagement processes which can promote better project outcomes and minimise delays and conflicts. This paper describes a process that utilises the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a framework to equip building professionals with the skills they need to engage effectively with local communities during the construction phase of projects.