Going through the labyrinth: the political economy of Argentina’s abandonment of the gold standard (1929-1933)

This article is the short but crucial history of four years of transition in a monetary and exchange-rate regime that culminated in 1933 with the final abandonment of the gold standard in Argentina. That process involved decisions made at critical junctures at which the government authorities had little time to deliberate and against which they had no analytical arsenal, no technical certainties and few political convictions. The objective of this study is to analyse those “decisions” at seven milestone moments, from the external shock of 1929 to the submission to Congress of a bill for the creation of the central bank and a currency control regime characterized by multiple exchange rates. The new regime that this reordering of the Argentine economy implied would remain in place, in one form or another, for at least a quarter of a century.

Estimativa de emissão de carbono por difusão CO2 e CH4 na bacia do Ji-Paraná

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

Mercado de ações brasileiro: uma investigação empírica sobre suas relações de longo prazo e de precedência temporal pré-crise de 2008

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Plano real e a nova realidade brasileira

This paper analyzes the Real Plan and its effects on two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), a period which extends from 1995 to 2002. To this end, the study includes a brief review of the problems faced by previous plans, especially the Cruzado Plan and the reasons for the belief that it has been successfull in relation to inflation control. Additionally, seeking to describe the process of moving to the new currency towards stabilization, the paper describes the theoretical foundations of the Plan. In sequence, it defines the backround of both international and domestic monetary reform which was one important part of the Plan and therefore the reasons for the implementation of the monetary reform. Subsequently the paper deals with the effects of the Plan on the economy as a whole, covering also the way the economic measures were taken concerning the Mexican and Asian crisis, the policies used fot the exchange rate, interest rate, fiscal accounts, balance of payments, among other factors and the relationship between them. Hence, it describes the immediate and the long-term consequences of stabilization program in terms of output, employment, public deficit and debt. Therefore, it is important to note the various junctures to which the economy was exposed, and also to point out the challenges and obstacles arising from these changes for growth, which was sometimes fast, sometimes slowing down - the so-called stop and go. Of course, facts as the moving to floating exchange rate regime, the adoption of inflation targeting regime and the adoption of fiscal responsibility law along with the primary surplus policy were able to create a new economic environment and to contribute to later success of the Cardoso years

O regime de metas inflacionárias e sua adequação à economia brasileira

The Inflation Targeting Regime was adopted in Brazil in 1999 and it aims at maintaining the price level in the interval set by the government. For such reason, the Central Bank makes use of variations in the interest rate, which causes the cost of the credit to be more expensive, reducing the investments, the jobs and, concomitantly, the inflation. Being aware that the country is subject to sudden reversals of the international capital flows which results in exchange rate and price instability, an econometric analysis of the adequation of the targerting regime to the Brazilian economy, especially concerned with the index price that is used as the parameter for the inflation calculus, is proposed

Implicações da União Econômica e Monetária Europeia sobre a política econômica dos PIGS: uma análise sobre a crise das dívidas soberanas

The present work intends to analyze the impacts of the European Economic and Monetary Union in the economic policies of the countries named PIGS, with an analysis about the sovereign debt crisis, in view of the autonomy loss to adopt own monetary and exchange rate policies of countries with different levels of development

A taxa de câmbio do Brasil é válida no longo prazo?

The objective of this study was to test the validity of the real exchange rate in the long run. For that five tests were performed based on equation, which relates to real exchange rate, international trade, domestic income. The main difference is that the tests when we are working with quarterly data, the parameters are significantly different from zero – i.e., the variables real exchange rate, international trade, domestic income and net exports on long term relationship – and, moreover, the signs are as expected. This implies that it is possible to increase exports with currency devaluation. Thus, based on data and tests that work we conclude that the exchange rate is an important instrument of trade policy, given that devaluations are valid even in the long term.

Restrição externa e taxa de câmbio no Brasil: 1980-2008

The objective of this study is to examine if economic growth in Brazil was blocking due to external constraints, that is, in consequence of its Balance of Payments. We work with the approach first proposed by Thirlwall (1979) which was later modified by Lima and Carvalho (2009). We can conclude that economic growth was restricted by the external sector, which is consistent with the economic history of Brazil, and verify that the real exchange rate, and to influence the trade balance in the course run, also excerce some influence on this account balance of payments in the long run.

Analysis of metabolic pools in broilers chicks

This paper shows the possibility of obtaining new parameters for the mathematical modelling of data on stable isotopes in biological systems and its application in obtaining data on metabolic pools of blood plasma, blood serum, liver and muscle of broilers. This theory states that the modelling of turnover used for studies of isotopic incorporation when the metabolism has a single metabolic pool is feasible by the technique of setting an exponential. However, when the metabolism has more than one metabolic pool, it is necessary to apply the linearization technique, linear regression adjustment and evaluation of the assumptions of regression to obtain the kinetic parameters such as half-life (T1/2) and isotope exchange rate (k). The application of this technique on carbon-13 data from 100 one-day-old chicks, with the change of diet composed of grains of the photosynthetic cycle of plants from C4 to C3, in broilers has enabled the discovery that the liver, blood plasma and blood serum have a single metabolic pool; however, the pectoral muscle has two metabolic pools. For the liver, blood plasma and blood serum, the half-life values were found by the exponential fit being T1/2 = 1.4 days with the rate of exchange of k = 0.502, T1/2 = 2.4 days with k = 0.293 and T1/2 = 2.0 days with k = 0.348, respectively. For the pectoral muscle, after linearization, the half-life values were found for T1/2(1) = 1.7 and T1/2(2) = 3 days, with exchange rates of k1 = 0.405 and k2 = 0.235, representing approximately 66 and 34 %, respectively.

Essays on European economic and monetary integration

This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.

Untersuchungen zum Austausch von Stickstoffdioxid (NO 2) zwischen Pflanzen und Atmosphäre

Der Austausch der NO2-Konzentration zwischen der Atmosphäre und verschiedenen Bäumen (Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur, Quercus ilex und Pinus sylvestris) wurde mit einer Dynamischen Küvette gemessen. Die NO2-Konzentrationen wurden mit einem CLD 780 TR Analysator in Verbindung mit einem PLC 762 gemessen. Die experimentellen Untersuchungen wurden im Dunkeln und unter zwei Lichtintensitäts-Niveaus (PAR, 450 und 900 µmol m-2 s-1) und sechs verschiedene NO2-Konzentrationen zwischen 0 - 5.0 ppb durchgeführt. Der stomatäre Einfluss wurde unter Einsatz des Hormons Abscisinsäure untersucht. Die Umgebungsparameter (Lufttemperatur und Luftfeuchtigkeit) wurden konstant gehalten. Die Daten zeigten klar und deutlich den dominanten Einfluss der jeweiligen Baumspezies auf die NO2-Konzentrationen innerhalb der Küvette. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit belegen bei allen Spezies eine lineare Abhängigkeit der NO2-Austauschrate mit der NO2-Umgebungskozentration und mit der stomatären Leitfähigkeit. Das Vorhandensein eines Kompensationspunkt wird nicht bestätigt.

A multi-regional view on aging societies accounting for the existence of non-tradable goods

This thesis assesses the question, whether accounting for non-tradable goods sectors in a calibrated Auerbach-Kotlikoff multi-regional overlapping-generations-model significantly affects this model’s results when simulating the economic impact of demographic change. Non-tradable goods constitute a major part of up to 80 percent of GDP of modern economies. At the same time, multi-regional overlapping-generations-models presented by literature on demographic change so far ignored their existence and counterfactually assumed perfect tradability between model regions. Moreover, this thesis introduces the assumption of an increasing preference share for non-tradable goods of old generations. This fact-based as-sumption is also not part of models in relevant literature. rnThese obvious simplifications of common models vis-à-vis reality notwithstanding, this thesis concludes that differences in results between a model featuring non-tradable goods and a common model with perfect tradability are very small. In other words, the common simplifi-cation of ignoring non-tradable goods is unlikely to lead to significant distortions in model results. rnIn order to ensure that differences in results between the ‘new’ model, featuring both non-tradable and tradable goods, and the common model solely reflect deviations due to the more realistic structure of the ‘new’ model, both models are calibrated to match exactly the same benchmark data and thus do not show deviations in their respective baseline steady states.rnA variation analysis performed in this thesis suggests that differences between the common model and a model with non-tradable goods can theoretically be large, but only if the bench-mark tradable goods sector is assumed to be unrealistically small.rnFinally, this thesis analyzes potential real exchange rate effects of demographic change, which could occur due to regional price differences of non-tradable goods. However, results show that shifts in real exchange rate based on these price differences are negligible.rn

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Disparate Wages in a Globalized World

This study uses wage data from the UBS Prices and Earnings survey to highlight Disparate Wages in a Globalized World from di↵erent perspectives. This wage data is characterised by remarkable consistency over the last 40 years, as well as unusual global comparability. In the first chapter we analyse the convergence hypothesis for purchasing power adjusted wages across the world for 1970 to 2009. The results provide solid evidence for the hypotheses of absolute and conditional convergence in real wages, with the key driver being faster overall growing wage levels in lower wage countries compared to higher wage countries. At the same time, the highest skilled professions have experienced the highest wage growth, while low skilled workers’ wages have lagged, thus no convergence in this sense is found between skill groups. In the second chapter we examine deviations in international wages from Factor Price Equalisation theory (FPE). Following an approach analogous to Engel (1993) we find that deviations from FPE are more likely driven by the higher variability of wages between countries than by the variability of di↵erent wages within countries. With regard to the traditional analysis of the real exchange rate and the Balassa-Samuelson assumptions our analysis points to a larger impact on the real exchange rate likely stemming from the movements in the real exchange rate of tradables, and only to a lesser extent from the lack of equalisation of wages within countries. In the third chapter our results show that India’s economic and trade liberalisation, starting in the early 1990s, had very di↵erential impacts on skill premia, both over time and over skill levels. The most striking result is the large increase in wage inequality of high-skilled versus low-skilled professions. Both the synthetic control group method and the di↵erence-in-di↵erences (DID) approach suggest that a significant part of this increase in wage inequality can be attributed to India’s liberalisation.

Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis

The current international integration of financial markets provides a channel for currency depreciation to affect stock prices. Moreover, the recent financial crisis in Asia with its accompanying exchange rate volatility affords a case study to examine that channel. This paper applies a bivariate GARCH-M model of the reduced form of stock market returns to investigate empirically the effects of daily currency depreciation on stock market returns for five newly emerging East Asian stock markets during the Asian financial crisis. The evidence shows that the conditional variances of stock market returns and depreciation rates exhibit time-varying characteristics for all countries. Domestic currency depreciation and its uncertainty adversely affects stock market returns across countries. The significant effects of foreign exchange market events on stock market returns suggest that international fund managers who invest in the newly emerging East Asian stock markets must evaluate the value and stability of the domestic currency as a part of their stock market investment decisions.