Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Herbaceous plant species invading natural areas tend to have stronger adaptive root foraging than other naturalized species

Although plastic root-foraging responses are thought to be adaptive, as they may optimize nutrient capture of plants, this has rarely been tested. We investigated whether nutrient-foraging responses are adaptive, and whether they pre-adapt alien species to become natural-area invaders. We grew 12 pairs of congeneric species (i.e., 24 species) native to Europe in heterogeneous and homogeneous nutrient environments, and compared their foraging responses and performance. One species in each pair is a USA natural-area invader, and the other one is not. Within species, individuals with strong foraging responses, measured as plasticity in root diameter and specific root length, had a higher biomass. Among species, the ones with strong foraging responses, measured as plasticity in root length and root biomass, had a higher biomass. Our results therefore suggest that root foraging is an adaptive trait. Invasive species showed significantly stronger root-foraging responses than non-invasive species when measured as root diameter. Biomass accumulation was decreased in the heterogeneous vs. the homogeneous environment. In aboveground, but not belowground and total biomass, this decrease was smaller in invasive than in non-invasive species. Our results show that strong plastic root-foraging responses are adaptive, and suggest that it might aid in pre-adapting species to becoming natural-area invaders.

Famine responses in the world food crisis 1972–5 and the World Food Conference of 1974

In the early 1970s, there was scarcity in the world grain market, soaring prices and famines in several countries of Asia and Africa. The commercial grain trade was expanded at the expense of food aid. After a brief look at policies addressing the situation in terms of modernised methods of agricultural production for small producers, the article sketches how such policies also affected relief efforts, from the low availability for food aid, the provision of food that was not useful and late deliveries through efforts to tie food aid to local changes in agricultural production and settlement patterns. In part, food aid thus reinforced processes of social differentiation that had contributed to causing the famines in the first place.

Experimental Evidence of an Eco-evolutionary Feedback during Adaptive Divergence

Differences in how organisms modify their environment can evolve rapidly and might influence adaptive population divergence [1, 2]. In a common garden experiment in aquatic mesocosms, we found that adult stickleback from a recently diverged pair of lake and stream populations had contrasting effects on ecosystem metrics. These modifications were caused by both genetic and plastic differences between populations and were sometimes comparable in magnitude to those caused by the presence/ absence of stickleback. Lake and streamfish differentially affected the biomass of zooplankton and phytoplankton, the concentration of phosphorus, and the abundance of several prey (e.g., copepods) and non-prey (e.g., cyanobacteria) species. The adult mediated effects on mesocosm ecosystems influenced the survival and growth of a subsequent generation of juvenile stickleback reared in the same mesocosms. The prior presence of adults decreased the overall growth rate of juveniles, and the prior presence of stream adults lowered overall juvenile survival. Among the survivors, lake juveniles grew faster than co-occurring stream juveniles, except in mesocosm ecosystems previously modified by adult lake fish that were reared on plankton. Overall, our results provide evidence for reciprocal interactions between ecosystem dynamics and evolutionary change (i.e., eco-evolutionary feedbacks) in the early stages of adaptive population divergence.

Immune Responses Against Classical Swine Fever Virus: Between Ignorance and Lunacy.

Classical swine fever virus infection of pigs causes disease courses from life-threatening to asymptomatic, depending on the virulence of the virus strain and the immunocompetence of the host. The virus targets immune cells, which are central in orchestrating innate and adaptive immune responses such as macrophages and conventional and plasmacytoid dendritic cells. Here, we review current knowledge and concepts aiming to explain the immunopathogenesis of the disease at both the host and the cellular level. We propose that the interferon type I system and in particular the interaction of the virus with plasmacytoid dendritic cells and macrophages is crucial to understand elements governing the induction of protective rather than pathogenic immune responses. The review also concludes that despite the knowledge available many aspects of classical swine fever immunopathogenesis are still puzzling.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

The SOLUTIONS project: challenges and responses for present and future emerging pollutants in land and water resources management.

SOLUTIONS (2013 to 2018) is a European Union Seventh Framework Programme Project (EU-FP7). The project aims to deliver a conceptual framework to support the evidence-based development of environmental policies with regard to water quality. SOLUTIONS will develop the tools for the identification, prioritisation and assessment of those water contaminants that may pose a risk to ecosystems and human health. To this end, a new generation of chemical and effect-based monitoring tools is developed and integrated with a full set of exposure, effect and risk assessment models. SOLUTIONS attempts to address legacy, present and future contamination by integrating monitoring and modelling based approaches with scenarios on future developments in society, economy and technology and thus in contamination. The project follows a solutions-oriented approach by addressing major problems of water and chemicals management and by assessing abatement options. SOLUTIONS takes advantage of the access to the infrastructure necessary to investigate the large basins of the Danube and Rhine as well as relevant Mediterranean basins as case studies, and puts major efforts on stakeholder dialogue and support. Particularly, the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) Common Implementation Strategy (CIS) working groups, International River Commissions, and water works associations are directly supported with consistent guidance for the early detection, identification, prioritisation, and abatement of chemicals in the water cycle. SOLUTIONS will give a specific emphasis on concepts and tools for the impact and risk assessment of complex mixtures of emerging pollutants, their metabolites and transformation products. Analytical and effect-based screening tools will be applied together with ecological assessment tools for the identification of toxicants and their impacts. The SOLUTIONS approach is expected to provide transparent and evidence-based candidates or River Basin Specific Pollutants in the case study basins and to assist future review of priority pollutants under the WFD as well as potential abatement options.

Effects of early and late lesion of orbital frontal cortex on visual processing of faces in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

Many mental disorders disrupt social skills, yet few studies have examined how the brain processes social information. Functional neuroimaging, neuroconnectivity and electrophysiological studies suggest that orbital frontal cortex plays important roles in social cognition, including the analysis of information from faces, which are important cues in social interactions. Studies in humans and non-human primates show that damage to orbital frontal cortex produces social behavior impairments, including abnormal aggression, but these studies have failed to determine whether damage to this area impairs face processing. In addition, it is not known whether damage early in life is more detrimental than damage in adulthood. This study examined whether orbital frontal cortex is necessary for the discrimination of face identity and facial expressions, and for appropriate behavioral responses to aggressive (threatening) facial expressions. Rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta) received selective lesions of orbital frontal cortex as newborns or adults. As adults, these animals were compared with sham-operated controls on their ability to discriminate between faces of individual monkeys and between different facial expressions of emotion. A passive visual paired-comparison task with standardized rhesus monkey face stimuli was designed and used to assess discrimination. In addition, looking behavior toward aggressive expressions was assessed and compared with that of normal control animals. The results showed that lesion of orbital frontal cortex (1) may impair discrimination between faces of individual monkeys, (2) does not impair facial expression discrimination, and (3) changes the amount of time spent looking at aggressive (threatening) facial expressions depending on the context. The effects of early and late lesions did not differ. Thus, orbital frontal cortex appears to be part of the neural circuitry for recognizing individuals and for modulating the response to aggression in faces, and the plasticity of the immature brain does not allow for recovery of these functions when the damage occurs early in life. This study opens new avenues for the assessment of rhesus monkey face processing and the neural basis of social cognition, and allows a better understanding of the nature of the neuropathology in patients with mental disorders that disrupt social behavior, such as autism. ^

Cellular Uptake of Neutrohpil Elastase Links Inflammation to Adaptive Immunity

Many tumors arise from sites of inflammation providing evidence that innate immunity is a critical component in the development and progression of cancer. Neutrophils are primary mediators of the innate immune response. Upon activation, an important function of neutrophils is release of an assortment of proteins from their granules including the serine protease neutrophil elastase (NE). The effect of NE on cancer has been attributed primarily to its ability to degrade the extracellular matrix thereby promoting invasion and metastasis. Recently, it was shown that NE could be taken up by lung cancer cells leading to degradation of insulin receptor substrate-1 thereby promoting hyperactivity of the phosphatidylinositol-3 kinase (PI3K) pathway and tumor cell proliferation. To our knowledge, nobody has investigated uptake of NE by other tumor types. In addition, NE has broad substrate specificity suggesting that uptake of NE by tumor cells could impact processes regulating tumorigenensis other than activation of the PI3K pathway. Neutrophil elastase has been identified in breast cancer specimens where high levels of NE have prognostic significance. These studies have assessed NE levels in whole tumor lysates. Because the major source of NE is from activated neutrophils, we hypothesized that breast cancer cells do not have endogenous NE but may take up NE released by tumor associated neutrophils in the tumor microenvironment and that this could provide a link between the innate immune response to tumors and specific adaptive immune responses. In this thesis, we show that breast cancer cells lack endogenous NE expression and that they are able to take up NE resulting in increased generation of low molecular weight cyclin E (CCNE) and enhanced susceptibility to lysis by CCNE-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes. We also show that after taking up NE and proteinase 3 (PR3), a second primary granule protease with significant homology to NE, breast cancer cells cross-present the NE- and PR3-derived peptide PR1 rendering them susceptible to PR1-targeted therapies. Taken together, our data support a role for NE uptake in modulating adaptive immune responses against breast cancer.

An early Eocene carbon cycle perturbation at in the Southern Alps

At least two transient events of extreme global warming occurred superimposed on the long-term latest Paleocene and early Eocene warming trend in the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) (or ETM1 ~55.5 Ma) and the Elmo (or ETM2 ?53.6 Ma). Other than warmth, the best known PETM is characterized by (1) significant injection of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system, (2) deep-sea carbonate dissolution, (3) strong biotic responses, and (4) perturbations of the hydrological cycle. Documentation of the other documented and suspected "hyperthermals" is, as yet, insufficient to assess whether they are similar in nature to the PETM. Here we present and discuss biomagnetostratigraphic data and geochemical records across two lower Eocene successions deposited on a continental margin of the western Tethys: the Farra and Possagno sections in the Venetian pre-Alps. We recognize four negative carbon isotope excursions within chron C24. Three of these shifts correlate to known or suspected hyperthermals: the PETM, the Eocene thermal maximum 2 (~53.6 Ma), and the informally named "X event" (~52.5 Ma). The fourth excursion lies within a reverse subchron and occurred between the latter two. In the Farra section, the X event is marked by a ~0.6 per mil negative carbon isotope excursion and carbonate dissolution. Furthermore, the event exhibits responses among calcareous nannofossils, planktic foraminifera, and dinoflagellates that are similar to, though less intense than, those observed across the PETM. Sedimentological and quantitative micropaleontological data from the Farra section also suggest increased weathering and runoff as well as sea surface eutrophication during this event.