A framework for state-based time-series analysis and prediction

Time-series analysis and prediction play an important role in state-based systems that involve dealing with varying situations in terms of states of the world evolving with time. Generally speaking, the world in the discourse persists in a given state until something occurs to it into another state. This paper introduces a framework for prediction and analysis based on time-series of states. It takes a time theory that addresses both points and intervals as primitive time elements as the temporal basis. A state of the world under consideration is defined as a set of time-varying propositions with Boolean truth-values that are dependent on time, including properties, facts, actions, events and processes, etc. A time-series of states is then formalized as a list of states that are temporally ordered one after another. The framework supports explicit expression of both absolute and relative temporal knowledge. A formal schema for expressing general time-series of states to be incomplete in various ways, while the concept of complete time-series of states is also formally defined. As applications of the formalism in time-series analysis and prediction, we present two illustrating examples.

Twentieth Century Society Spring lecture series: second lives for Twentieth Century masterpieces

The Twentieth Century Society’s Spring lecture series (six in total) looks at the restoration and refurbishment of key C20 buildings in Britain and the US. Buildings covered: BBC Broadcasting House in London (G Val Meyer 1930-32, MacCormac Jamieson Prichard 2000-09). Speaker: Mark Hines (Mark Hines Architects), was the project architect and is the author of The Story of Broadcasting House: Home of the BBC. 5 February 2009. Crown Hall, Chicago (Mies van der Rohe 1952), the Art and Architecture Building, Yale University, New Haven (Paul Rudolf 1961-63) and the former Wills head office in Bristol (SOM with YRM 1970-75). Speaker: Patrick Bellew (Atelier 10 Engineers), 12 February 2009. Center for British Art, Yale University, New Haven (Louis Kahn 1969-77). Speaker: Peter Inskip (Inskip and Jenkins Architects), 17 February 2009. Brunswick Centre London (Patrick Hodgkinson 1967-72; Levitt Bernstein with Patrick Hodgkinson 2006). Speaker: Stuart Tappin (Stand Consulting Engineers Ltd), 26 February 2009. De La Warr Pavilion, Bexhill-on-Sea (Mendelsohn and Chermayeff 1934-5, John McAslan and Partners 2000-05). Speaker: Mark Cannata (HOK Architects), 5 March 2009. Finsbury Health Centre London (Lubetkin & Tecton 1938, first phase of conservation work Avanti Architects 1995.). Speaker: John Allan of Avanti Architects, 12 March 2009.

A small screen alternative to stone and bronze: The Great War series and British television

This article examines the first major British television series about the First World War, The Great War (BBC, 1964), in terms of its cultural, historical and aesthetic significance. As a central component of the BBC`s 50th anniversary commemorative programme to mark the outbreak of war, the series was a major media event -a small-screen memorial cast in sounds and images instead of stone and bronze. This article looks at how the British television audience responded to this form of on-screen commemoration. Material for this article was derived from the series' extensive production records housed in the BBC Written Archives Centre at Caversham, Berkshire. This was supplemented by, among other sources, material from interviews and correspondence with several surviving members of the production team. This allows a broader understanding of the motivations of those involved in the production of a groundbreaking historical series, while acknowledging the wide-ranging nature of its audience. [From the Publisher]

Excellent correlation between cathepsin B inhibition and cytotoxicity for a series of palladacycles

The reaction of the five- or six-membered C,N or C,S-palladacycles [(L)PdCl](2) with PTA (1,3,5-triaza-7-phosphaadamantane) led to the monomeric complexes [(L)Pd(PTA)Cl] 6a, 6b and 7 where LH= N,N-dimethyl-1-phenylmethanamine, benzyl(methyl)sulfane or 1-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-benzo[e][1,4]diazepin-2(3H)-one respectively. Dimeric complexes have also been synthesised: [Pd(2)L(2)(mu-dppe)Cl(2)], where LH = 1-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-benzo[e][1,4]diazepin-2(3H)-one (1a), (R)- or (S)-3-isopropyl-1-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-benzo[e][1,4]diazepin-2(3H)-one (1b, 1c), [Pd(2)L(2)(mu-dppf)Cl(2)], where L= 1-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-benzo[e][1,4]diazepin-2(3H)-one (4a) or (R)-3-isopropyl-1-methyl-5-phenyl-1H-benzo[e][1,4]diazepin-2(3H)-one (4b), respectively, and dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane, dppf = 1,1'-bis(diphenylphosphino)ferrocene. The complexes were characterised in solution, by (1)H and (31)P NMR spectroscopy, and single crystals of complexes 6b and 7 were studied in the solid state by X-ray crystallography. The palladacycles were evaluated for in vitro activity as cytotoxic agents on A2780/S cells and also as cathepsin B inhibitors, an enzyme implicated in a number of cancer related events.

An analysis of masculine and feminine writings in postings within a series of health and social care online undergraduate courses

This study aims to extend understanding of pedagogic dialogue by analysing the effect that the gender of the student has on interaction within a selection of ordinary health and social care on line courses.

The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Continuous Plankton Records - Persistence In Time-Series And The Population-Dynamics Of Pseudocalanus-Elongatus And Acartia-Clausi

Rates of population increase in early spring and the sizes of overwintering stocks were calculated for the planktonic copepods Pseudocalanus elongatus and Acartia clausi for a set of areas covering the open waters of the north-east Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea for the period 1948 to 1979. For both species, the rates of population increase were higher in the open ocean than in the North Sea and appear to be related to temperature. The overwintering stocks in the North Sea were larger than those in the open ocean and are probably related to phytoplanton concentration. P. elongatus shows higher overwintering stocks and lower rates of population increase than A. clausi, resulting in different levels of persistence in the stocks of the two species. It is suggested that this difference in persistence is responsible for differences between the two species with respect to geographical distribution in summer and different patterns of year-to-year fluctuations in abundance.

Continuous Plankton Records - Persistence In Time-Series Of Annual Means Of Abundance Of Zooplankton

Time-series of annual means of abundance of zooplankton of the north-east Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea, for the period 1948 to 1977, show considerable associations between successive years. The seasonal dynamics of the stocks appear to be consistent with at least a proportion of this being due to inherent persistence from year-to-year. Experiments with a simple model suggest that the observed properties of the time-series cannot be reproduced as a response to simple random forcing. The extent of trends and long wavelength variations can be simulated by introducing fairly extensive persistence into the perturbations, but this underestimates the extent of shorter wavelength variability in the observed time-series. The effect of persistence is to increase the proportion of trend and long wavelength variability in time-series of annual means, but stocks can respond to short wavelength perturbations provided these have a clearly defined frequency.