Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Patent policy, patent pools, and the accumulation of claims in sequential innovation

We present a dynamic model where the accumulation of patents generates an increasing number of claims on sequential innovation. We compare innovation activity under three regimes -patents, no-patents, and patent pools- and find that none of them can reach the first best. We find that the first best can be reached through a decentralized tax-subsidy mechanism, by which innovators receive a subsidy when they innovate, and are taxed with subsequent innovations. This finding implies that optimal transfers work in the exact opposite way as traditional patents. Finally, we consider patents of finite duration and determine the optimal patent length.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

A survey on recent p-adic integration theories and arithmetic applications

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Health Impact Assessment Policy analysis tool

The policy analysis tool provides a framework to review government and other relevant agency policy related to the proposal.

Community Education Needs to be Supported by Strong Public Policy to Tackle Food Poverty

Community education needs to be supported by strong public policy if it is to be fully effective at tackling food poverty and obesity, a project evaluation by the Institute of Public Health in Ireland (IPH) has found. In its evaluation of Decent Food for All (DFfA) - a major project to improve community diet and health - IPH found that where people live and shop had a greater impact on their diet than their own individual awareness and attitudes. Access Tackling Food Poverty: lessons from the Decent Food for All intervention at www.publichealth.ie DFfA was funded by safefood (the Food Safety Promotion Board) and the Food Standards Agency Northern Ireland. The project lasted four years and included hundreds of community education activities designed to improve diet in poorer parts of Armagh and South Tyrone. safefood commissioned IPH to undertake the evaluation of DFfA. Dr. Kevin Balanda, IPH Associate Director, said 'The aim of the project was to reduce food poverty (this is defined as not being able to consume adequate healthy food) and improve health in the target communities. DFfA delivered over 370 core activities to 3,100 residents including local education talks on diet, cookery workshops, fresh fruit in schools, healthy food tastings and information stands. One in eight residents in the target areas participated in at least one of these activities.' The evaluation found that over 1 in 5 adults in the target areas reported they had cut their weekly food spending in the last six months to pay other household bills such as rent, electricity and gas. During the four years of the DFfA activities, this percentage had not changed significantly. There were mixed changes in the nature of food in local stores. While the overall availability and price of food increased, both ﾓhealthierﾔ food and ﾓunhealthierﾔ food were included in that increase. It was only in the larger ﾓmultiple/discount freezerﾔ type of shops that the overall price of food had decreased.

Health Impact Assessment contributing to Healthy Public Policy

Published by Public Health, April 2009 IPH recently coordinated and was guest editor for a minisymposium on Health Impact Assessment for the journal, Public Health. Three aricles contributed to the minisymposium which included an article from IPH on how HIA can contribute to healthy public policy. An article reviewing the right to the highest attainable standard of health from Paul Hunt and Gillian MacNaughton and a review of the strengths and weakneses of quantitiative methods used in HIA from Emer O'Connell and Fintan Hurley. The minisymposium evolved from the 8th International HIA conference ‘Healthy Public Policy – is Health Impact Assessment the Cornerstone’ hosted by IPH.

Policy Credibility and Delegation to Independent Regulatory Agencies: A Comparative Empirical Analysis

Independent regulatory agencies are one of the main institutional features of the 'rising regulatory state' in Western Europe. Governments are increasingly willing to abandon their regulatory competencies and to delegate them to specialized institutions that are at least partially beyond their control. This article examines the empirical consistency of one particular explanation of this phenomenon, namely the credibility hypothesis, claiming that governments delegate powers so as to enhance the credibility of their policies. Three observable implications are derived from the general hypothesis, linking credibility and delegation to veto players, complexity and interdependence. An independence index is developed to measure agency independence, which is then used in a multivariate analysis where the impact of credibility concerns on delegation is tested. The analysis relies on an original data set comprising independence scores for thirty-three regulators. Results show that the credibility hypothesis can explain a good deal of the variation in delegation. The economic nature of regulation is a strong determinant of agency independence, but is mediated by national institutions in the form of veto players.

IPH response to DSD Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework Consultation

The Urban Regeneration and Community Development Policy Framework for Northern Ireland sets out for DSD and its partners, clear priorities for urban regeneration and community development programmes, both before and after the operational responsibility for these is transferred to councils under the reform of local government. Four policy objectives have been developed, which will focus on the underlying structural problems in urban areas and also help strengthen community development throughout Northern Ireland. The policy objectives are as follows: Policy Objective 1 – To tackle area-based deprivation: Policy Objective 2 – To strengthen the competitiveness of our towns and cities: Policy Objective 3 – To improve linkages between areas of need and areas of opportunity: and Policy Objective 4 –To develop more cohesive and engaged communities. Key points from IPH response Urban regeneration and community development provide a basis for addressing the social determinants of health and reducing inequalities in health. This policy framework presents an opportunity for coherence and complementarity with ‘Fit and Well - Changing Lives’ as part of government’s overall approach to tackling health inequalities. It is now well established that a focus on early years’ interventions and family support services yields significant returns, so prioritising action in these areas is essential. Defined action plans on child poverty are essential if this policy framework is to make a real and lasting difference in deprived urban areas. Development of the environmental infrastructure to improve health in deprived areas should be supported by well-planned monitoring and evaluation. Linking the policy framework to economic development and local community plans will enhance effectiveness in the areas of education, job creation, commercial investment and access to services, which in turn are critical for the economic growth and stability of urban communities. Community profile data and health intelligence (as available through IPH Health Well) could usefully inform central and local government in terms of resource allocation and targeted service delivery.

Institutional fragmentation and coordination initiatives in western European welfare states

As a result of recent welfare state transformations, and most notably the reorientation of welfare states towards activation, the internal fragmentation of social security systems has emerged as a key policy problem in many western European countries. The types of response that have been adopted, however, vary substantially across countries, ranging from the encouragement of inter-agency collaboration to the outright merger of agencies. The purpose of this exploratory article is twofold. First, by proposing the concept of coordination initiatives, it tries to develop a better conceptualization of the cross-national diversity in responses to the fragmentation problem. Second, starting from existing theories of welfare state development and policy change, it presents first hypotheses accounting for the variation observed in coordination initiatives.