Simulation-based systematic review of imatinib population pharmacokinetics and PK-PD relationships in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients

Objectives: Several population pharmacokinetic (PPK) and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) analyses have been performed with the anticancer drug imatinib. Inspired by the approach of meta-analysis, we aimed to compare and combine results from published studies in a useful way - in particular for improving the clinical interpretation of imatinib concentration measurements in the scope of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). Methods: Original PPK analyses and PK-PD studies (PK surrogate: trough concentration Cmin; PD outcomes: optimal early response and specific adverse events) were searched systematically on MEDLINE. From each identified PPK model, a predicted concentration distribution under standard dosage was derived through 1000 simulations (NONMEM), after standardizing model parameters to common covariates. A "reference range" was calculated from pooled simulated concentrations in a semi-quantitative approach (without specific weighting) over the whole dosing interval. Meta-regression summarized relationships between Cmin and optimal/suboptimal early treatment response. Results: 9 PPK models and 6 relevant PK-PD reports in CML patients were identified. Model-based predicted median Cmin ranged from 555 to 1388 ng/ml (grand median: 870 ng/ml and inter-quartile range: 520-1390 ng/ml). The probability to achieve optimal early response was predicted to increase from 60 to 85% from 520 to 1390 ng/ml across PK-PD studies (odds ratio for doubling Cmin: 2.7). Reporting of specific adverse events was too heterogeneous to perform a regression analysis. The general frequency of anemia, rash and fluid retention increased however consistently with Cmin, but less than response probability. Conclusions: Predicted drug exposure may differ substantially between various PPK analyses. In this review, heterogeneity was mainly attributed to 2 "outlying" models. The established reference range seems to cover the range where both good efficacy and acceptable tolerance are expected for most patients. TDM guided dose adjustment appears therefore justified for imatinib in CML patients. Its usefulness remains now to be prospectively validated in a randomized trial.

Nash equilibrium strategies in discrete-time finite-horizon dynamic games with risk-and effort-averse players

The objective of this paper is to re-examine the risk-and effort attitude in the context of strategic dynamic interactions stated as a discrete-time finite-horizon Nash game. The analysis is based on the assumption that players are endogenously risk-and effort-averse. Each player is characterized by distinct risk-and effort-aversion types that are unknown to his opponent. The goal of the game is the optimal risk-and effort-sharing between the players. It generally depends on the individual strategies adopted and, implicitly, on the the players' types or characteristics.

Dynamical modeling and analysis of large cellular regulatory networks.

The dynamical analysis of large biological regulatory networks requires the development of scalable methods for mathematical modeling. Following the approach initially introduced by Thomas, we formalize the interactions between the components of a network in terms of discrete variables, functions, and parameters. Model simulations result in directed graphs, called state transition graphs. We are particularly interested in reachability properties and asymptotic behaviors, which correspond to terminal strongly connected components (or "attractors") in the state transition graph. A well-known problem is the exponential increase of the size of state transition graphs with the number of network components, in particular when using the biologically realistic asynchronous updating assumption. To address this problem, we have developed several complementary methods enabling the analysis of the behavior of large and complex logical models: (i) the definition of transition priority classes to simplify the dynamics; (ii) a model reduction method preserving essential dynamical properties, (iii) a novel algorithm to compact state transition graphs and directly generate compressed representations, emphasizing relevant transient and asymptotic dynamical properties. The power of an approach combining these different methods is demonstrated by applying them to a recent multilevel logical model for the network controlling CD4+ T helper cell response to antigen presentation and to a dozen cytokines. This model accounts for the differentiation of canonical Th1 and Th2 lymphocytes, as well as of inflammatory Th17 and regulatory T cells, along with many hybrid subtypes. All these methods have been implemented into the software GINsim, which enables the definition, the analysis, and the simulation of logical regulatory graphs.

Agent based simulation to optimise emergency departments

Nowadays, many of the health care systems are large and complex environments and quite dynamic, specifically Emergency Departments, EDs. It is opened and working 24 hours per day throughout the year with limited resources, whereas it is overcrowded. Thus, is mandatory to simulate EDs to improve qualitatively and quantitatively their performance. This improvement can be achieved modelling and simulating EDs using Agent-Based Model, ABM and optimising many different staff scenarios. This work optimises the staff configuration of an ED. In order to do optimisation, objective functions to minimise or maximise have to be set. One of those objective functions is to find the best or optimum staff configuration that minimise patient waiting time. The staff configuration comprises: doctors, triage nurses, and admissions, the amount and sort of them. Staff configuration is a combinatorial problem, that can take a lot of time to be solved. HPC is used to run the experiments, and encouraging results were obtained. However, even with the basic ED used in this work the search space is very large, thus, when the problem size increases, it is going to need more resources of processing in order to obtain results in an acceptable time.

Artificial Snow Optimization in Winter Sport Destinations Using a Multi-agent Simulation

This paper presents the Juste-Neige system for predicting the snow height on the ski runs of a resort using a multi-agent simulation software. Its aim is to facilitate snow cover management in order to i) reduce the production cost of artificial snow and to improve the profit margin for the companies managing the ski resorts; and ii) to reduce the water and energy consumption, and thus to reduce the environmental impact, by producing only the snow needed for a good skiing experience. The software provides maps with the predicted snow heights for up to 13 days. On these maps, the areas most exposed to snow erosion are highlighted. The software proceeds in three steps: i) interpolation of snow height measurements with a neural network; ii) local meteorological forecasts for every ski resort; iii) simulation of the impact caused by skiers using a multi-agent system. The software has been evaluated in the Swiss ski resort of Verbier and provides useful predictions.

Simulation des caractéristiques ECG du syndrome de Brugada à l'aide d'un programme de modélisation 3D

Introduction : Le syndrome de Brugada, décrit en 1992 par Pedro et Josep Brugada, est un syndrome cardiaque caractérisé par un sus-décalage particulier du segment ST associé à un bloc de branche droit atypique au niveau des dérivations ECG V1 à V3. Les altérations ECG du syndrome de Brugada sont classifiées en 3 types dont seul le type 1 est diagnostique. Les mécanismes physiopathologiques exacts de ce syndrome sont pour le moment encore controversés. Plusieurs hypothèses sont proposées dans la littérature dont deux principales retiennent l'attention : 1) le modèle du trouble de repolarisation stipule des potentiels d'action réduits en durée et en amplitude liés à un changement de répartition de canaux potassiques 2) le modèle du trouble de dépolarisation spécifie un retard de conduction se traduisant par une dépolarisation retardée. Dans le STEMI, un sus-décalage ST ressemblant à celui du syndrome de Brugada est expliqué par deux théories : 1) le courant de lésion diastolique suggère une élévation du potentiel diastolique transformé artificiellement en sus-décalage ST par les filtres utilisés dans tous les appareils ECG.¦Objectif : Recréer les manifestations ECG du syndrome de Brugada en appliquant les modifications du potentiel d'action des cardiomyocytes rapportées dans la littérature.¦Méthode : Pour ce travail, nous avons utilisé "ECGsim", un simulateur informatique réaliste d'ECG disponible gratuitement sur www.ecgsim.org. Ce programme est basé sur une reconstruction de l'ECG de surface à l'aide de 1500 noeuds représentant chacun les potentiels d'action des ventricules droit et gauche, épicardiques et endocardiques. L'ECG simulé peut être donc vu comme l'intégration de l'ensemble de ces potentiels d'action en tenant compte des propriétés de conductivité des tissus s'interposant entre les électrodes de surface et le coeur. Dans ce programme, nous avons définit trois zones, de taille différente, comprenant la chambre de chasse du ventricule droit. Pour chaque zone, nous avons reproduit les modifications des potentiels d'action citées dans les modèles du trouble de repolarisation et de dépolarisation et des théories de courant de lésion systolique et diastolique. Nous avons utilisé, en plus des douze dérivations habituelles, une électrode positionnée en V2IC3 (i.e. 3ème espace intercostal) sur le thorax virtuel du programme ECGsim.¦Résultats : Pour des raisons techniques, le modèle du trouble de repolarisation n'a pas pu être entièrement réalisée dans ce travail. Le modèle du trouble de dépolarisation ne reproduit pas d'altération de type Brugada mais un bloc de branche droit plus ou moins complet. Le courant de lésion diastolique permet d'obtenir un sus-décalage ST en augmentant le potentiel diastolique épicardique des cardiomyocytes de la chambre de chasse du ventricule droit. Une inversion de l'onde T apparaît lorsque la durée du potentiel d'action est prolongée. L'amplitude du sus-décalage ST dépend de la valeur du potentiel diastolique, de la taille de la lésion et de sa localisation épicardique ou transmurale. Le courant de lésion systolique n'entraîne pas de sus-décalage ST mais accentue l'amplitude de l'onde T.¦Discussion et conclusion : Dans ce travail, l'élévation du potentiel diastolique avec un prolongement de la durée du potentiel d'action est la combinaison qui reproduit le mieux les altérations ECG du Brugada. Une persistance de cellules de type nodal au niveau de la chambre de chasse du ventricule droit pourrait être une explication à ces modifications particulières du potentiel d'action. Le risque d'arythmie dans la Brugada pourrait également être expliqué par une automaticité anormale des cellules de type nodal. Ainsi, des altérations des mécanismes cellulaires impliqués dans le maintien du potentiel diastolique pourraient être présentes dans le syndrome de Brugada, ce qui, à notre connaissance, n'a jamais été rapporté dans la littérature.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Multiple-scale hydrological and geophysical data integration through non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.

Physically based walking simulation

Hem realitzat l’estudi de moviments humans i hem buscat la forma de poder crear aquests moviments en temps real sobre entorns digitals de forma que la feina que han de dur a terme els artistes i animadors sigui reduïda. Hem fet un estudi de les diferents tècniques d’animació de personatges que podem trobar actualment en l’industria de l’entreteniment així com les principals línies de recerca, estudiant detingudament la tècnica més utilitzada, la captura de moviments. La captura de moviments permet enregistrar els moviments d’una persona mitjançant sensors òptics, sensors magnètics i vídeo càmeres. Aquesta informació és emmagatzemada en arxius que després podran ser reproduïts per un personatge en temps real en una aplicació digital. Tot moviment enregistrat ha d’estar associat a un personatge, aquest és el procés de rigging, un dels punts que hem treballat ha estat la creació d’un sistema d’associació de l’esquelet amb la malla del personatge de forma semi-automàtica, reduint la feina de l’animador per a realitzar aquest procés. En les aplicacions en temps real com la realitat virtual, cada cop més s’està simulant l’entorn en el que viuen els personatges mitjançant les lleis de Newton, de forma que tot canvi en el moviment d’un cos ve donat per l’aplicació d’una força sobre aquest. La captura de moviments no escala bé amb aquests entorns degut a que no és capaç de crear noves animacions realistes a partir de l’enregistrada que depenguin de l’interacció amb l’entorn. L’objectiu final del nostre treball ha estat realitzar la creació d’animacions a partir de forces tal i com ho fem en la realitat en temps real. Per a això hem introduït un model muscular i un sistema de balanç sobre el personatge de forma que aquest pugui respondre a les interaccions amb l’entorn simulat mitjançant les lleis de Newton de manera realista.