Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Reproducibility and accuracy of the ICDAS-II for occlusal caries detection

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this in vitro study was to assess the inter- and intra-examiner reproducibility and the accuracy of the International Caries Detection and Assessment System-II (ICDAS-II) in detecting occlusal caries. METHODS: One hundred and sixty-three molars were independently assessed twice by two experienced dentists using the 0- to 6-graded ICDAS-II. The teeth were histologically prepared and classified using two different histological systems [Ekstrand et al. (1997) Caries Research vol. 31, pp. 224-231; Lussi et al. (1999) Caries Research vol. 33, pp. 261-266] and assessed for caries extension. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the ROC curve (A(z)) were obtained at D(2) and D(3) thresholds. Unweighted kappa coefficient was used to assess inter- and intra-examiner reproducibility. RESULTS: For the Ekstrand et al. histological classification the sensitivity was 0.99 and 1.00, specificity 1.00 and 0.69 and accuracy 0.99 and 0.76 at D(2) and D(3), respectively. For the Lussi et al. histological classification the sensitivity was 0.91 and 0.75, specificity 0.47 and 0.62 and accuracy 0.86 and 0.68 at D(2) and D(3), respectively. The A(z) varied from 0.54 to 0.73. The inter- and intra-examiner kappa values were 0.51 and 0.58, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: ICDAS-II presented good reproducibility and accuracy in detecting occlusal caries, especially caries lesions in the outer half of the enamel.

IS711-based real-time PCR assay as a tool for detection of Brucella spp. in wild boars and comparison with bacterial isolation and serology

BACKGROUND: Control of brucellosis in livestock, wildlife and humans depends on the reliability of the methods used for detection and identification of bacteria. In the present study, we describe the evaluation of the recently established real-time PCR assay based on the Brucella-specific insertion sequence IS711 with blood samples from 199 wild boars (first group of animals) and tissue samples from 53 wild boars (second group of animals) collected in Switzerland. Results from IS711 real-time PCR were compared to those obtained by bacterial isolation, Rose Bengal Test (RBT), competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) and indirect ELISA (i-ELISA). RESULTS: In the first group of animals, IS711 real-time PCR detected infection in 11.1% (16/144) of wild boars that were serologically negative. Serological tests showed different sensitivities [RBT 15.6%, c-ELISA 7.5% and i-ELISA 5.5%] and only 2% of blood samples were positive with all three tests, which makes interpretation of the serological results very difficult. Regarding the second group of animals, the IS711 real-time PCR detected infection in 26% of animals, while Brucella spp. could be isolated from tissues of only 9.4% of the animals. CONCLUSION: The results presented here indicate that IS711 real-time PCR assay is a specific and sensitive tool for detection of Brucella spp. infections in wild boars. For this reason, we propose the employment of IS711 real-time PCR as a complementary tool in brucellosis screening programs and for confirmation of diagnosis in doubtful cases.

Fluorescent In Situ hybridization: a new tool for the direct identification and detection of F. psychrophilum

F. psychrophilum is the causative agent of Bacterial Cold Water Disease (BCW) and Rainbow Trout Fry Syndrome (RTFS). To date, diagnosis relies mainly on direct microscopy or cultural methods. Direct microscopy is fast but not very reliable, whereas cultural methods are reliable but time-consuming and labor-intensive. So far fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) has not been used in the diagnosis of flavobacteriosis but it has the potential to rapidly and specifically detect F. psychrophilum in infected tissues. Outbreaks in fish farms, caused by pathogenic strains of Flavobacterium species, are increasingly frequent and there is a need for reliable and cost-effective techniques to rapidly diagnose flavobacterioses. This study is aimed at developing a FISH that could be used for the diagnosis of F. psychrophilum infections in fish. We constructed a generic probe for the genus Flavobacterium ("Pan-Flavo") and two specific probes targeting F. psychrophilum based on 16S rRNA gene sequences. We tested their specificity and sensitivity on pure cultures of different Flavobacterium and other aquatic bacterial species. After assessing their sensitivity and specificity, we established their limit of detection and tested the probes on infected fresh tissues (spleen and skin) and on paraffin-embedded tissues. The results showed high sensitivity and specificity of the probes (100% and 91% for the Pan-Flavo probe and 100% and 97% for the F. psychrophilum probe, respectively). FISH was able to detect F. psychrophilum in infected fish tissues, thus the findings from this study indicate this technique is suitable as a fast and reliable method for the detection of Flavobacterium spp. and F. psychrophilum.

Traditional and novel methods for occlusal caries detection: performance on primary teeth

This study aimed to assess the performance of International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS), radiographic examination, and fluorescence-based methods for detecting occlusal caries in primary teeth. One occlusal site on each of 79 primary molars was assessed twice by two examiners using ICDAS, bitewing radiography (BW), DIAGNOdent 2095 (LF), DIAGNOdent 2190 (LFpen), and VistaProof fluorescence camera (FC). The teeth were histologically prepared and assessed for caries extent. Optimal cutoff limits were calculated for LF, LFpen, and FC. At the D (1) threshold (enamel and dentin lesions), ICDAS and FC presented higher sensitivity values (0.75 and 0.73, respectively), while BW showed higher specificity (1.00). At the D (2) threshold (inner enamel and dentin lesions), ICDAS presented higher sensitivity (0.83) and statistically significantly lower specificity (0.70). At the D(3) threshold (dentin lesions), LFpen and FC showed higher sensitivity (1.00 and 0.91, respectively), while higher specificity was presented by FC (0.95), ICDAS (0.94), BW (0.94), and LF (0.92). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (Az) varied from 0.780 (BW) to 0.941 (LF). Spearman correlation coefficients with histology were 0.72 (ICDAS), 0.64 (BW), 0.71 (LF), 0.65 (LFpen), and 0.74 (FC). Inter- and intraexaminer intraclass correlation values varied from 0.772 to 0.963 and unweighted kappa values ranged from 0.462 to 0.750. In conclusion, ICDAS and FC exhibited better accuracy in detecting enamel and dentin caries lesions, whereas ICDAS, LF, LFpen, and FC were more appropriate for detecting dentin lesions on occlusal surfaces in primary teeth, with no statistically significant difference among them. All methods presented good to excellent reproducibility.

Hide-and-seek in vegetation: time-to-detection is an efficient design for estimating detectability and occurrence

Ecology and conservation require reliable data on the occurrence of animals and plants. A major source of bias is imperfect detection, which, however, can be corrected for by estimation of detectability. In traditional occupancy models, this requires repeat or multi-observer surveys. Recently, time-to-detection models have been developed as a cost-effective alternative, which requires no repeat surveys and hence costs could be halved. We compared the efficiency and reliability of time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models under varying survey effort. Two observers independently searched for 17 plant species in 44100m(2) Swiss grassland quadrats and recorded the time-to-detection for each species, enabling detectability to be estimated with both time-to-detection and traditional occupancy models. In addition, we gauged the relative influence on detectability of species, observer, plant height and two measures of abundance (cover and frequency). Estimates of detectability and occupancy under both models were very similar. Rare species were more likely to be overlooked; detectability was strongly affected by abundance. As a measure of abundance, frequency outperformed cover in its predictive power. The two observers differed significantly in their detection ability. Time-to-detection models were as accurate as traditional occupancy models, but their data easier to obtain; thus they provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional occupancy models for detection-corrected estimation of occurrence.

Differentiation between Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococcus species by real-time PCR including detection of methicillin resistants in comparison to conventional microbiology testing.

BACKGROUND Staphylococcus aureus has long been recognized as a major pathogen. Methicillin-resistant strains of S. aureus (MRSA) and methicillin-resistant strains of S. epidermidis (MRSE) are among the most prevalent multiresistant pathogens worldwide, frequently causing nosocomial and community-acquired infections. METHODS In the present pilot study, we tested a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method to quickly differentiate Staphylococci and identify the mecA gene in a clinical setting. RESULTS Compared to the conventional microbiology testing the real-time PCR assay had a higher detection rate for both S. aureus and coagulase-negative Staphylococci (CoNS; 55 vs. 32 for S. aureus and 63 vs. 24 for CoNS). Hands-on time preparing DNA, carrying out the PCR, and evaluating results was less than 5 h. CONCLUSIONS The assay is largely automated, easy to adapt, and has been shown to be rapid and reliable. Fast detection and differentiation of S. aureus, CoNS, and the mecA gene by means of this real-time PCR protocol may help expedite therapeutic decision-making and enable earlier adequate antibiotic treatment.

Damage detection by using FBGs and strain field pattern recognition techniques

A novel methodology for damage detection and location in structures is proposed. The methodology is based on strain measurements and consists in the development of strain field pattern recognition techniques. The aforementioned are based on PCA (principal component analysis) and damage indices (T 2 and Q). We propose the use of fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) as strain sensors

Higher-order regularization and morphological techniques for image segmentation

La segmentación de imágenes es un campo importante de la visión computacional y una de las áreas de investigación más activas, con aplicaciones en comprensión de imágenes, detección de objetos, reconocimiento facial, vigilancia de vídeo o procesamiento de imagen médica. La segmentación de imágenes es un problema difícil en general, pero especialmente en entornos científicos y biomédicos, donde las técnicas de adquisición imagen proporcionan imágenes ruidosas. Además, en muchos de estos casos se necesita una precisión casi perfecta. En esta tesis, revisamos y comparamos primero algunas de las técnicas ampliamente usadas para la segmentación de imágenes médicas. Estas técnicas usan clasificadores a nivel de pixel e introducen regularización sobre pares de píxeles que es normalmente insuficiente. Estudiamos las dificultades que presentan para capturar la información de alto nivel sobre los objetos a segmentar. Esta deficiencia da lugar a detecciones erróneas, bordes irregulares, configuraciones con topología errónea y formas inválidas. Para solucionar estos problemas, proponemos un nuevo método de regularización de alto nivel que aprende información topológica y de forma a partir de los datos de entrenamiento de una forma no paramétrica usando potenciales de orden superior. Los potenciales de orden superior se están popularizando en visión por computador, pero la representación exacta de un potencial de orden superior definido sobre muchas variables es computacionalmente inviable. Usamos una representación compacta de los potenciales basada en un conjunto finito de patrones aprendidos de los datos de entrenamiento que, a su vez, depende de las observaciones. Gracias a esta representación, los potenciales de orden superior pueden ser convertidos a potenciales de orden 2 con algunas variables auxiliares añadidas. Experimentos con imágenes reales y sintéticas confirman que nuestro modelo soluciona los errores de aproximaciones más débiles. Incluso con una regularización de alto nivel, una precisión exacta es inalcanzable, y se requeire de edición manual de los resultados de la segmentación automática. La edición manual es tediosa y pesada, y cualquier herramienta de ayuda es muy apreciada. Estas herramientas necesitan ser precisas, pero también lo suficientemente rápidas para ser usadas de forma interactiva. Los contornos activos son una buena solución: son buenos para detecciones precisas de fronteras y, en lugar de buscar una solución global, proporcionan un ajuste fino a resultados que ya existían previamente. Sin embargo, requieren una representación implícita que les permita trabajar con cambios topológicos del contorno, y esto da lugar a ecuaciones en derivadas parciales (EDP) que son costosas de resolver computacionalmente y pueden presentar problemas de estabilidad numérica. Presentamos una aproximación morfológica a la evolución de contornos basada en un nuevo operador morfológico de curvatura que es válido para superficies de cualquier dimensión. Aproximamos la solución numérica de la EDP de la evolución de contorno mediante la aplicación sucesiva de un conjunto de operadores morfológicos aplicados sobre una función de conjuntos de nivel. Estos operadores son muy rápidos, no sufren de problemas de estabilidad numérica y no degradan la función de los conjuntos de nivel, de modo que no hay necesidad de reinicializarlo. Además, su implementación es mucho más sencilla que la de las EDP, ya que no requieren usar sofisticados algoritmos numéricos. Desde un punto de vista teórico, profundizamos en las conexiones entre operadores morfológicos y diferenciales, e introducimos nuevos resultados en este área. Validamos nuestra aproximación proporcionando una implementación morfológica de los contornos geodésicos activos, los contornos activos sin bordes, y los turbopíxeles. En los experimentos realizados, las implementaciones morfológicas convergen a soluciones equivalentes a aquéllas logradas mediante soluciones numéricas tradicionales, pero con ganancias significativas en simplicidad, velocidad y estabilidad. ABSTRACT Image segmentation is an important field in computer vision and one of its most active research areas, with applications in image understanding, object detection, face recognition, video surveillance or medical image processing. Image segmentation is a challenging problem in general, but especially in the biological and medical image fields, where the imaging techniques usually produce cluttered and noisy images and near-perfect accuracy is required in many cases. In this thesis we first review and compare some standard techniques widely used for medical image segmentation. These techniques use pixel-wise classifiers and introduce weak pairwise regularization which is insufficient in many cases. We study their difficulties to capture high-level structural information about the objects to segment. This deficiency leads to many erroneous detections, ragged boundaries, incorrect topological configurations and wrong shapes. To deal with these problems, we propose a new regularization method that learns shape and topological information from training data in a nonparametric way using high-order potentials. High-order potentials are becoming increasingly popular in computer vision. However, the exact representation of a general higher order potential defined over many variables is computationally infeasible. We use a compact representation of the potentials based on a finite set of patterns learned fromtraining data that, in turn, depends on the observations. Thanks to this representation, high-order potentials can be converted into pairwise potentials with some added auxiliary variables and minimized with tree-reweighted message passing (TRW) and belief propagation (BP) techniques. Both synthetic and real experiments confirm that our model fixes the errors of weaker approaches. Even with high-level regularization, perfect accuracy is still unattainable, and human editing of the segmentation results is necessary. The manual edition is tedious and cumbersome, and tools that assist the user are greatly appreciated. These tools need to be precise, but also fast enough to be used in real-time. Active contours are a good solution: they are good for precise boundary detection and, instead of finding a global solution, they provide a fine tuning to previously existing results. However, they require an implicit representation to deal with topological changes of the contour, and this leads to PDEs that are computationally costly to solve and may present numerical stability issues. We present a morphological approach to contour evolution based on a new curvature morphological operator valid for surfaces of any dimension. We approximate the numerical solution of the contour evolution PDE by the successive application of a set of morphological operators defined on a binary level-set. These operators are very fast, do not suffer numerical stability issues, and do not degrade the level set function, so there is no need to reinitialize it. Moreover, their implementation is much easier than their PDE counterpart, since they do not require the use of sophisticated numerical algorithms. From a theoretical point of view, we delve into the connections between differential andmorphological operators, and introduce novel results in this area. We validate the approach providing amorphological implementation of the geodesic active contours, the active contours without borders, and turbopixels. In the experiments conducted, the morphological implementations converge to solutions equivalent to those achieved by traditional numerical solutions, but with significant gains in simplicity, speed, and stability.

PUE attack detection in CWSN using collaboration and learning behavior

Cognitive Wireless Sensor Network (CWSN) is a new paradigm which integrates cognitive features in traditional Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) to mitigate important problems such as spectrum occupancy. Security in Cognitive Wireless Sensor Networks is an important problem because these kinds of networks manage critical applications and data. Moreover, the specific constraints of WSN make the problem even more critical. However, effective solutions have not been implemented yet. Among the specific attacks derived from new cognitive features, the one most studied is the Primary User Emulation (PUE) attack. This paper discusses a new approach, based on anomaly behavior detection and collaboration, to detect the PUE attack in CWSN scenarios. A nonparametric CUSUM algorithm, suitable for low resource networks like CWSN, has been used in this work. The algorithm has been tested using a cognitive simulator that brings important results in this area. For example, the result shows that the number of collaborative nodes is the most important parameter in order to improve the PUE attack detection rates. If the 20% of the nodes collaborates, the PUE detection reaches the 98% with less than 1% of false positives.

Real-time detection of DNA hybridization and melting on oligonucleotide arrays by using optical wave guides.

The challenge of the Human Genome Project is to increase the rate of DNA sequence acquisition by two orders of magnitude to complete sequencing of the human genome by the year 2000. The present work describes a rapid detection method using a two-dimensional optical wave guide that allows measurement of real-time binding or melting of a light-scattering label on a DNA array. A particulate label on the target DNA acts as a light-scattering source when illuminated by the evanescent wave of the wave guide and only the label bound to the surface generates a signal. Imaging/visual examination of the scattered light permits interrogation of the entire array simultaneously. Hybridization specificity is equivalent to that obtained with a conventional system using autoradiography. Wave guide melting curves are consistent with those obtained in the liquid phase and single-base discrimination is facile. Dilution experiments showed an apparent lower limit of detection at 0.4 nM oligonucleotide. This performance is comparable to the best currently known fluorescence-based systems. In addition, wave guide detection allows manipulation of hybridization stringency during detection and thereby reduces DNA chip complexity. It is anticipated that this methodology will provide a powerful tool for diagnostic applications that require rapid cost-effective detection of variations from known sequences.

Improving 3D Keypoint Detection from Noisy Data Using Growing Neural Gas

3D sensors provides valuable information for mobile robotic tasks like scene classification or object recognition, but these sensors often produce noisy data that makes impossible applying classical keypoint detection and feature extraction techniques. Therefore, noise removal and downsampling have become essential steps in 3D data processing. In this work, we propose the use of a 3D filtering and down-sampling technique based on a Growing Neural Gas (GNG) network. GNG method is able to deal with outliers presents in the input data. These features allows to represent 3D spaces, obtaining an induced Delaunay Triangulation of the input space. Experiments show how the state-of-the-art keypoint detectors improve their performance using GNG output representation as input data. Descriptors extracted on improved keypoints perform better matching in robotics applications as 3D scene registration.

Research on vehicle-based driver status/performance monitoring; development, validation, and refinement of algorithms for detection of driver drowsiness.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Proposal for establishing a cheap, just, and efficient mode of electing members of Parliament, and for securing the just and equal representation of the people /

Mode of access: Internet.

Presentation and detection of invasive melanoma in a high-risk population

Background: Early detection of melanoma has been encouraged in Queensland for many years, yet little is known about the patterns of detection and the way in which they relate to tumor thickness. Objective: Our purpose was to describe current patterns of melanoma detection in Queensland. Methods: This was a population-based study, comprising 3772 Queensland residents diagnosed with a histologically confirmed melanoma between 2000 and 2003. Results: Almost half (44.0%) of the melanomas were detected by the patients themselves, with physicians detecting one fourth (25.3%) and partners one fifth (18.6%). Melanomas detected by doctors were more likely to be thin (\0.75 mm) than those detected by the patient or other layperson. Melanomas detected during a deliberate skin examination were thinner than those detected incidentally. Limitations: Although a participation rate of 78% was achieved, as in any survey, nonresponse bias cannot be completely excluded, and the ability of the results to be generalized to other geographical areas is unknown. Conclusion: There are clear differences in the depth distribution of melanoma in terms of method of detection and who detects the lesions that are consistent with, but do not automatically lead to, the conclusion that promoting active methods of detection may be beneficial. ( J Am Acad Dermatol 2006;54:783-92.)