Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks : evidence from a flood in Thailand

In this paper, we explore the firm-level impacts of flooding in Thailand in 2011, specifically those on the procurement patterns at Japanese affiliates in Thailand. Our findings are as follow. First, the damaged small firms are more likely to lower their local procurement share, particularly the share of procurement from other Japanese-owned firms in Thailand. Second, damaged young firms and damaged old firms are more likely to raise the shares of imports from Japan and China, respectively. Third, there are no impacts on imports from ASEAN and other countries. These findings are useful for uncovering how multinational firms adjust their production networks before and after natural disasters.

Tug Fork Valley flood damage reduction plan (VA,KY) : environmental impact statement.

Mode of access: Internet.

Upper White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bay and tributaries flood damage protection : environmental impact statement.

D also available in microfiche.

Catalog of weather and flood hazard awareness material.

Mode of access: Internet.

Ashland Flood Control Project : Village of Ashland, IL, Cass County /

"May 2009."

City of Sycamore flood control project (Martin's Ditch Reservoir) : Small Projects Program : city of Sycamore, DeKalb County, Illinois.

Cover title.

Elevating or relocating a house to reduce flood damage /

"October, 1983."

Reducing flood damage : a manual for local government officials /

Mode of access: Internet.

Report on the regulation of construction within the flood plain of Upper Salt Creek and tributaries, Palatine, Schaumberg, Elk Grove townships, Cook County /

"December 1975."

Report on the regulation of construction within the flood plain of the Little Calumet River and Tributaries in Cook and Will Counties

"November, 1976"

Village of Rosemont special project report : Willow-Higgins Creek Flood Mitigation Project phases III & IV, Cook County, Illinois.

Report by the Illinois Office of Water Resources on Phases III & IV of a flood hazard mitigation project in Rosemont, Illinois. Phase III of the Willow-Higgins Flood Mitigation Project consists of widening and improving a 340-foot reach of Willow-Higgins Creek upstream of River Road. The improvement will include the replacement of 340 lineal feet of vertical floodwall along both sides of Willow-Higgins Creek. Phase IV of the Willow-Higgins Flood Mitigation Project consists of widening and improving a reach of Willow-Higgins Creek between the downstream end of Phase II, which is 2565 feet downstream of Higgins Road, and Granville Road; and also between Willow Creek Road and a point 160 feet downstream of Willow Creek Road. The improvement will include placement of 2200 lineal feet of vertical floodwall along the north side of Willow-Higgins Creek and 160 feet of vertical floodwall along both sides of Willow-Higgins Creek downstream of Willow Creek Road.

Geomorphic Impacts of the 2013 Colorado Front Range Flood on Black Canyon Creek and North Fork Big Thompson River

In September 2013, the Colorado Front Range experienced a five-day storm that brought record-breaking precipitation to the region. As a consequence, many Front Range streams experienced flooding, leading to erosion, debris flows, bank failures and channel incision. I compare the effects that debris flows and flooding have on the channel bar frequency, frequency and location of wood accumulation, and on the shape and size of the channel along two flood impacted reaches located near Estes Park and Glen Haven, Colorado within Rocky Mountain National Park and Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest: Black Canyon Creek (BCC) and North Fork Big Thompson River (NFBT). The primary difference between the two study areas is that BCC was inundated by multiple debris flows, whereas NFBT only experienced flooding. Fieldwork consisted of recording location and size of large wood and channel bars and surveying reaches to produce cross-sections. Additional observations were made on bank failures in NFBT and the presence of boulders in channel bars in BCC to determine sediment source. The debris flow acted to scour and incise BCC causing long-term alteration. The post-flood channel cross-sectional area is as much as 7 to 23 times larger than the pre-flood channel, caused by the erosion of the channel bed to bedrock and the elimination of riparian vegetation. Large wood was forced out of the stream channel and deposited outside of the bankfull channel. Flooding in NFBT caused bank erosion and widening that contributed sediment to channel bars, but accomplished little stream-bed scour. As a result, there was relatively little damage to mid-channel and riparian vegetation, and most large wood remained within the wetted channel.

Adaptation to flood risk:the case of businesses in the UK

Despite Government investment in flood defence schemes, many properties remain at high risk of flooding. A substantial portion of these properties are business establishments. Flooding can create serious consequences for businesses, including damage to property and stocks, being out of business for a considerable period and ultimately business failure. Recent flood events such as those in 2007 and 2009 that affected many parts of the UK have helped to establish the true costs of flooding to businesses. This greater understanding of the risks to businesses has heightened the need for business owners to adapt their businesses to the threat of future flooding. Government policy has now shifted away from investment in engineered flood defences, towards encouraging the uptake of property level flood resistance and resilience measures by businesses. However, implementing such adaptation strategies remains a challenge due a range of reasons. A review of the current state of property level flood risk adaptation of UK businesses is presented, drawing from extant literature. Barriers that may hinder the uptake of property level adaptation by businesses are revealed and drivers that may enhance uptake and effectively overcome these barriers are also discussed. It is concluded that the professions from the construction sector have the potential to contribute towards the adaptation of business properties and thereby the flood resilience of businesses at risk of flooding.