The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: synthesis and summary

The "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)" project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity in both initialized hindcasts and climate simulations, while others show considerable variations in fidelity between experiments. Fidelity in hindcasts and climate simulations are not meaningfully correlated. The analysis of each experiment led to the development of process-oriented diagnostics, some of which distinguished between GCMs with higher or lower fidelity in that experiment. We select the most discriminating diagnostics and apply them to data from all experiments, where possible, to determine if correlations with MJO fidelity hold across scales and GCM states. While normalized gross moist stability had a small but statistically significant correlation with MJO fidelity in climate simulations, we find no link with fidelity in medium-range hindcasts. Similarly, there is no association between timestep-to-timestep rainfall variability, identified from short hindcasts, and fidelity in medium-range hindcasts or climate simulations. Two metrics that relate precipitation to free-tropospheric moisture--the relative humidity for extreme daily precipitation, and variations in the height and amplitude of moistening with rain rate--successfully distinguish between higher- and lower-fidelity GCMs in hindcasts and climate simulations. To improve the MJO, developers should focus on relationships between convection and both total moisture and its rate of change. We conclude by offering recommendations for further experiments.

The missing pillar: the creativity theory of knowledge spillover entrepreneurship

Knowledge spillover theory of entrepreneurship and the prevailing theory of economic growth treat opportunities as endogenous and generally focus on opportunity recognition by entrepreneurs. New knowledge created endogenously results in knowledge spillovers enabling inventors and entrepreneurs to commercialize it. This article discusses that knowledge spillover entrepreneurship depends not only on ordinary human capital, but more importantly also on creativity embodied in creative individuals and diverse urban environments that attract creative classes. This might result in self-selection of creative individuals into entrepreneurship or enable entrepreneurs to recognize creativity and commercialize it. This creativity theory of knowledge spillover entrepreneurship is tested utilizing data on European cities.

Snow-albedo feedback and Swiss spring temperature trends

We quantify the effect of the snow-albedo feedback on Swiss spring temperature trends using daily temperature and snow depth measurements from six station pairs for the period 1961–2011. We show that the daily mean 2-m temperature of a spring day without snow cover is on average 0.4 °C warmer than one with snow cover at the same location. This estimate is comparable with estimates from climate modelling studies. Caused by the decreases in snow pack, the snow-albedo feedback amplifies observed temperature trends in spring. The influence is small and confined to areas around the upward-moving snow line in spring and early summer. For the 1961–2011 period, the related temperature trend increases are in the order of 3–7 % of the total observed trend.

Education and training futures in horticulture and horticultural science

Horticultural knowledge and skills training have been with humankind for some 10,000 to 20,000 years. With permanent settlement and rising wealth and trade, horticulture products and services became a source of fresh food for daily consumption, and a source of plant material in developing a quality environment and lifestyle. The knowledge of horticulture and the skills of its practitioners have been demonstrated through the advancing civilizations in both eastern and western countries. With the rise of the Agricultural Revolutions in Great Britain, and more widely across Continental Europe in the 17th and 18th centuries, as well as the move towards colonisation and early migration to the New Worlds, many westernised countries established the early institutions that would provide education and training in agriculture and horticulture. Today many of these colleges and universities provide undergraduate, postgraduate and vocational and technical training that specifically targets horticulture and/or horticultural science with some research and teaching institutions also providing extension and advisory services to industry. The objective of this chapter is to describe the wider pedagogic and educational context in which those concerned with horticulture operate, the institutional structures that target horticulture and horticultural science education and training internationally; examine changing educational formats, especially distance education; and consider strategies for attracting and retaining young people in the delivery of world-class horticultural education. In this chapter we set the context by investigating the horticultural education and training options available, the constraints that prevent young people entering horticulture, and suggest strategies that would attract and retain these students. We suggest that effective strategies and partnerships be put in place by the institution, the government and most importantly the industry to provide for undergraduate and postgraduate education in horticulture and horticultural science; that educational and vocational training institutions, government, and industry need to work more effectively together to improve communication about horticulture and horticultural science in order to attract enrolments of more and talented students; and that the horticulture curriculum be continuously evaluated and revised so that it remains relevant to future challenges facing the industries of horticulture in the production, environmental and social spheres. These strategies can be used as a means to develop successful programs and case studies that would provide better information to high school career counsellors, improve the image of horticulture and encourage greater involvement from alumni and the industries in recruitment, provide opportunities to improve career aspirations, ensure improved levels of remuneration, and promote the social features of the profession and greater awareness and recognition of the profession in the wider community. A successful career in horticulture demands intellectual capacities which are capable of drawing knowledge from a wide field of basic sciences, economics and the humanities and integrating this into academic scholarship and practical technologies.

Genetics and hyperlipidaemia

Hannah is a 30 year old single mother with two young children. She is of Chinese descent and moved to the UK six years ago; she has a good level of English. Recently her mother suffered a heart attack, which prompted Hannah’s first visit to the general practitioner (GP). Meanwhile Hannah performed a predictive genetic test independently through an online company, which showed an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD); she has the ɛ4 variant of the APOE gene. The company has recommended a daily supplement and dietary changes. Blood tests showed raised blood lipids and her GP referred Hannah to a dietitian for lifestyle management. Hannah is very concerned and anxious about her health.

Isolation and genotype analysis of rubella virus from a case of Guillain-Barre syndrome

Rubella virus (RV) infection has sporadically been linked to Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), but the association with RV has been based only on clinical and/or serological backgrounds. In the present case it was possible to isolate RV (genotype 1a) from cerebrospinal fluid and peripheral blood mononuclear cells of an 18-year-old woman diagnosed with GBS after clinical manifestations of rubella. This report contributes to confirm RV as one of the triggering pathogens of this peripheral nervous system disease. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Have Biofuel, Will Travel: A Colorful Experiment and a Different Approach To Teach the Undergraduate Laboratory

The substitution of petroleum-based fuels with those from renewable sources has gained momentum worldwide. A UV-vis experiment for the quantitative analysis of biofuels (bioethanol or biodiesel) in (petroleum-based) diesel oil has been developed. Before the experiment, students were given a quiz on biofuels, and then they were asked to suggest a suitable UV-vis experiment for the quantification of biofuels in diesel oil. After discussing the results of the quiz, the experiment was conducted. This included the determination of lambda(max) of the medium-dependent, that is, solvatochromic, visible absorption band of the probe 2,6-bis[4-(tert-butyl)phenyl]-4-{2,4,6-tris[4-(tert-butyl)phenyl]pyridinium-1-yl}phenolate as a function of fuel composition. The students appreciated that the subject was linked to a daily situation and that they were asked to suggest the experiment. This experiment served to introduce the phenomena of solvation and solvatochromism.

Methylmercury localization in Danio rerio retina after trophic and subchronic exposure: A basis for neurotoxicology

Methylmercury is a known neurotoxic organometal which affects visual functions and few studies concerns to wild fish are available. The autometallography mercury distribution in the retina of Danio rerio was mapped using light and electron microscopy. Abundant mercury deposits were found in the photoreceptor layer (outer and inner segments of the photoreceptors) and in the inner and outer nuclear layers. Occasionally, the presence of mercury deposits in plexiform layers was observed and very rarely in the ganglion cell layer. Also the occurrence of mercury deposits in cells from the disc region was observed, but not in the nerve fiber layer. An interesting difference was found between mercury accumulation in the central and peripheral regions of the retina. These results demonstrate that mercury after trophic exposure to Danio rerio is able to cross the blood-retina barrier and accumulate in the cells of the retina even under subchronic exposure. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nurses’ perceptions of climate and environmental issues : a qualitative study

Aim: The aim of this study was to explore nurses' perceptions of climate and environmental issues and examine how nurses perceive their role in contributing to the process of sustainable development.  Background: Climate change and its implications for human health represent an increasingly important issue for the healthcare sector. According to the International Council of Nurses Code of Ethics, nurses have a responsibility to be involved and support climate change mitigation and adaptation to protect human health.  Design: This is a descriptive, explorative qualitative study.  Methods: Nurses (n=18) were recruited from hospitals, primary care and emergency medical services; eight participated in semi-structured, in-depth individual interviews and 10 participated in two focus groups. Data were collected from April-October 2013 in Sweden; interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using content analysis.  Results: Two main themes were identified from the interviews: (i) an incongruence between climate and environmental issues and nurses' daily work; and (ii) public health work is regarded as a health co-benefit of climate change mitigation. While being green is not the primary task in a lifesaving, hectic and economically challenging context, nurses' perceived their profession as entailing responsibility, opportunities and a sense of individual commitment to influence the environment in a positive direction.  Conclusions: This study argues there is a need for increased awareness of issues and methods that are crucial for the healthcare sector to respond to climate change. Efforts to develop interventions should explore how nurses should be able to contribute to the healthcare sector's preparedness for and contributions to sustainable development.

The fall descriptions and health characteristics of older adults with hip fracture : a mixed methods study

Background: In light of the multifactorial etiology of fall-related hip fracture, knowledge of fall circumstances may be especially valuable when placed in the context of the health of the person who falls. We aimed to investigate the circumstances surrounding fall-related hip fractures and to describe fall circumstances in relation to participants' health and functional characteristics. Methods: The fall circumstances of 125 individuals (age >= 50 years) with hip fracture were investigated using semi-structured interviews. Data concerning participants' health (comorbidities and medications) and function (self-reported performance of mobility, balance, personal activities of daily living and physical activity, previous falls and hand grip strength) were collected via medical records, questionnaires and dynamometry. Using a mixed methods design, both data sets were analysed separately and then merged in order to provide a comprehensive description of fall events and identify eventual patterns in the data. Results: Fall circumstances were described as i) Activity at the time of the fall: Positional change (n = 24, 19%); Standing (n = 16, 13%); Walking (n = 71, 57%); Balance challenging (n = 14, 11%) and ii) Nature of the fall: Environmental (n = 32, 26%); Physiological (n = 35, 28%); Activity-related indoor (n = 8, 6%) and outdoor (n = 8, 6%); Trips and slips on snow (n = 20, 16%) and in snow-free conditions (n = 12, 10%) and Unknown (n = 10, 8%). We observed the following patterns regarding fall circumstances and participants' health: those who fell i) during positional change had the poorest functional status; ii) due to environmental reasons (indoors) had moderate physical function, but high levels of comorbidity and fall risk increasing medications; iii) in snow-free environments (outdoors) appeared to have a poorer health and functional status than other outdoor groups. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that patterns exist in relation to the falls circumstances and health characteristics of people with hip fracture which build upon that previously reported. These patterns, when verified, can provide useful information as to the ways in which fall prevention strategies can be tailored to individuals of varying levels of health and function who are at risk for falls and hip fracture.

Older people's experience of utilisation and administration of medicines in a health- and social care context

BACKGROUND: People living at home who lack ability to manage their medicine are entitled to assistance to improve adherence provided by a home care assistant employed by social care. AIM: The aim was to describe how older people with chronic diseases, living at home, experience the use and assistance of administration of medicines in the context of social care. DESIGN: A qualitative descriptive study. METHODS: Ten participants (age 65+) living at home were interviewed in the participants' own homes. Latent content analysis was used. FINDINGS: The assistance eases daily life with regard to practical matters and increases adherence to a medicine regimen. There were mixed feelings about being dependent on assistance; it interferes with self-sufficiency at a time of health transition. Participants were balancing empowerment and a dubious perception of the home care assistants' knowledge of medicine and safety. Physicians' and district nurses' professional knowledge was a safety guarantee for the medicine process. CONCLUSIONS: Assistance eases daily life and medicine regimen adherence. Dependence on assistance may affect self-sufficiency. Perceived safety varied relating to home care assistants' knowledge of medicine. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: A well-functioning medicine assistance is crucial to enable older people to remain at home. A person-centred approach to health- and social care delivery is efficient and improve outcome for the recipient of care.

Estimates of genetic parameters for visual scores and their correlation with production and reproductive traits in Brahman cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

HIV/AIDS e estilo de vida: parâmetros imunológicos, virológicos, síndrome lipodistrófica e sua relação com a prática de exercícios

This descriptive study aimed to investigate the relationship between expression of immunological (TCD4 +) and virological (viral load) parameters, lipodystrophy syndrome and lifestyle variables of people living with HIV who underwent a program of physicalexercise. Initially, the sample was composed by 17 persons, recorded at the Department of Giselda Trigueiro Hospital Care (GTH), Natal-RN . With the passing of the stages of intervention (physical training program- PTP) the number of participants has changed (17, 9, 8 and 7) as the training phases (I, II, III and IV). Data collected were on total cholesterol, High Density Lipoprotein (HDL) and triglycerides. The % fat (% F), body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), lean mass (LM), central fat (BF), total (TF) and peripheral (PF), weight and height were used to measure the morphological parameters. For control of variables (TCD4 +, viral load, Triglycerides, Cholesterol, HDL), the information contained in the blood tests every four months were investigated. After Phase I and II, it was used a structured interview. Then sampling was carried out considering the pre-and post-tests 1, 2, 3 and 4 (after 16, 32, 48 and 64 weeks of training, respectively). Daily, the intensity of the work was checked by the scale of perceived exertion for exercises adapted to resistance34. Procedures used were descriptive statistics (dispersion, absolute and relative frequencies, means, standard deviations and minimum and maximum values) as well as Spearman linear correlation adopting a significance level of p ≤ 0.05. Positive changes were observed for TCD4 + and viral load in all phases of the PTP. For the morphological components, the loss of central subcutaneous fat (CSF) and total subcutaneous fat (TSF) for both sexes and the decrease in % BF among women were the most dramatic results after the training phase I. For men, results were more significant to % F and LM in Phases I and II and peripheral subcutaneous fat (PSF) declined in all phases of the exercise. As for women, results were more expressive for % F and TM in the phases I and II and the PSF decreased in all phases of the exercise. Whereas for women, the waist/hip ratio (WCQ) and 0% F decreased and showed a positive association with triglycerides (WHR r * 0.82, p 0.042, r 0.88 TSF *, p 0.019 and r 1.00 ** CSF, p <0.001) and among men with limb subcutaneous fat (LSF)* r 0.65, p 0.029). The PTP provided improvement in the health, self-esteem and quality of life, proving to be a possible strategy to positively influence the expression of immunological parameters (TCD4 +) and virological (viral load) and morphological components of people living with HIV causing no deleterious effects in these parameters

Effect of Environmental Temperature During the First Week of Brooding Period on Broiler Chick Body Weight, Viscera and Bone Development

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo estudar o efeito de diferentes temperaturas-ambiente durante a primeira semana de vida de pintos de corte sob parâmetros zootécnicos, desenvolvimento visceral e crescimento ósseo. Foram utilizados 240 pintos de um dia, alojados em 3 câmaras climáticas, com temperaturas constantes de 20, 25 e 35°C do 1° ao 7° dia de vida. Diariamente, o consumo de água e ração, bem como o peso vivo, o peso relativo do fígado, moela, coração, saco vitelino e bursa de Fabricius foram avaliados. A tíbia e o fêmur também foram pesados e o comprimento e espessura (diâmetro médio) mensurados. As aves criadas a 20°C ganharam menos peso e consumiram menos ração do que aves mantidas a 25°C e menos água do que aves mantidas a 35°C. O peso relativo do fígado, coração e moela foram afetados pela temperatura ambiente, entretanto, não foi observado efeito da temperatura de criação sobre o peso do saco vitelino e bursa de Fabricius. Os dados mostraram que todos os parâmetros ósseos pesquisados aumentaram com a idade das aves. A temperatura ambiente não afetou a espessura da tíbia e do fêmur, mas foi observado um aumento significativo no peso e comprimento dos ossos com o aumento da temperatura ambiente. Os resultados desse experimento mostraram que o estresse por frio (20°C) reduziu o crescimento ósseo bem como o peso vivo das aves, durante os primeiros sete dias após a eclosão.