Compact matrix expressions for generalized Wald tests of equality of moment vectors

Asymptotic chi-squared test statistics for testing the equality ofmoment vectors are developed. The test statistics proposed aregeneralizedWald test statistics that specialize for different settings by inserting andappropriate asymptotic variance matrix of sample moments. Scaled teststatisticsare also considered for dealing with situations of non-iid sampling. Thespecializationwill be carried out for testing the equality of multinomial populations, andtheequality of variance and correlation matrices for both normal andnon-normaldata. When testing the equality of correlation matrices, a scaled versionofthe normal theory chi-squared statistic is proven to be an asymptoticallyexactchi-squared statistic in the case of elliptical data.

Assessment of a new MRI classification of spinal stenosis based on cross-sectional morphology of the dural sac : FM2

Introduction: Quantitative measures of degree of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) such as antero-posterior diameter of the canal or dural sac cross sectional area vary widely and do not correlate with clinical symptoms or results of surgical decompression. In an effort to improve quantification of stenosis we have developed a grading system based on the morphology of the dural sac and its contents as seen on T2 axial images. The grading comprises seven categories ranging form normal to the most severe stenosis and takes into account the ratio of rootlet/CSF content. Material and methods: Fifty T2 axial MRI images taken at disc level from twenty seven symptomatic lumbar spinal stenosis patients who underwent decompressive surgery were classified into seven categories by five observers and reclassified 2 weeks later by the same investigators. Intra- and inter-observer reliability of the classification were assessed using Cohen's and Fleiss' kappa statistics, respectively. Results: Generally, the morphology grading system itself was well adopted by the observers. Its success in application is strongly influenced by the identification of the dural sac. The average intraobserver Cohen's kappa was 0.53 ± 0.2. The inter-observer Fleiss' kappa was 0.38 ± 0.02 in the first rating and 0.3 ± 0.03 in the second rating repeated after two weeks. Discussion: In this attempt, the teaching of the observers was limited to an introduction to the general idea of the morphology grading system and one example MRI image per category. The identification of the dimension of the dural sac may be a difficult issue in absence of complete T1 T2 MRI image series as it was the case here. The similarity of the CSF to possibly present fat on T2 images was the main reason of mismatch in the assignment of the cases to a category. The Fleiss correlation factors of the five observers are fair and the proposed morphology grading system is promising.

Combined analysis of grey matter voxel-based morphometry and white matter tract-based spatial statistics in late-life bipolar disorder.

Background: Previous magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies in young patients with bipolar disorder indicated the presence of grey matter concentration changes as well as microstructural alterations in white matter in various neocortical areas and the corpus callosum. Whether these structural changes are also present in elderly patients with bipolar disorder with long-lasting clinical evolution remains unclear. Methods: We performed a prospective MRI study of consecutive elderly, euthymic patients with bipolar disorder and healthy, elderly controls. We conducted a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis and a tract-based spatial statistics (TBSS) analysis to assess fractional anisotropy and longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity derived by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Results: We included 19 patients with bipolar disorder and 47 controls in our study. Fractional anisotropy was the most sensitive DTI marker and decreased significantly in the ventral part of the corpus callosum in patients with bipolar disorder. Longitudinal, radial and mean diffusivity showed no significant between-group differences. Grey matter concentration was reduced in patients with bipolar disorder in the right anterior insula, head of the caudate nucleus, nucleus accumbens, ventral putamen and frontal orbital cortex. Conversely, there was no grey matter concentration or fractional anisotropy increase in any brain region in patients with bipolar disorder compared with controls. Limitations: The major limitation of our study is the small number of patients with bipolar disorder. Conclusion: Our data document the concomitant presence of grey matter concentration decreases in the anterior limbic areas and the reduced fibre tract coherence in the corpus callosum of elderly patients with long-lasting bipolar disorder.

Illusory correlation in the remuneration of chief executive officers: It pays to play golf, and well

Illusory correlation refers to the use of information in decisions that is uncorrelated with the relevantcriterion. We document illusory correlation in CEO compensation decisions by demonstrating thatinformation, that is uncorrelated with corporate performance, is related to CEO compensation. We usepublicly available data from the USA for the years 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004 to examine the relationsbetween golf handicaps of CEOs and corporate performance, on the one hand, and CEO compensationand golf handicaps, on the other hand. Although we find no relation between handicap and corporateperformance, we do find a relation between handicap and CEO compensation. In short, golfers earnmore than non-golfers and pay increases with golfing ability. We relate these findings to the difficultiesof judging compensation for CEOs. To overcome this and possibly other illusory correlations inthese kinds of decisions, we recommend the use of explicit, mechanical decision rules.

Vital Statistics of Iowa in Brief, 2006

This publication is an historical recording of the most requested statistics on vital events and is a source of information that can be used in further analysis.

A general decomposition formula for derivative prices in stochastic volatility models

We see that the price of an european call option in a stochastic volatilityframework can be decomposed in the sum of four terms, which identifythe main features of the market that affect to option prices: the expectedfuture volatility, the correlation between the volatility and the noisedriving the stock prices, the market price of volatility risk and thedifference of the expected future volatility at different times. We alsostudy some applications of this decomposition.

Formação profissional e empregabilidade: O caso dos diplomados da escola de formação profissional da Cabnave em São Vicente – Cabo Verde

Se houve um tempo em que eram as empresas as mais preocupadas em dotar os seus empregados com um determinado leque de competências técnicas, pela via da Formação Profissional, para se tornarem cada vez mais competitivas, hoje torna-se crucial para qualquer país poder determinar o grau de empregabilidade dos diversos cursos de formação profissional realizados pela sua população activa, de modo a optimizar a inserção dos seus cidadãos no mercado de trabalho. A presente investigação visa analisar a empregabilidade a partir de um caso nacional, em que uma escola de formação profissional, inserida numa empresa – a Cabnave – vem desenvolvendo um modelo de formação, que para além de estar directamente relacionado com a sua própria actividade, encontra-se ligado a vários sectores da actividade económica de Cabo Verde, particularmente ao da indústria Mecânica e Metalomecânica. O estudo contém dois principais momentos. Um primeiro, no qual se procedeu à contextualização e fundamentação do tema, com base em bibliografia nacional e internacional, e enfoque nos seguintes assuntos: o sistema de ensino em Cabo Verde, mais concretamente a via do ensino secundário técnico; a formação profissional; e o mercado de trabalho em Cabo Verde. Num segundo momento desenvolveu-se um Caso de Estudo, para se determinar o grau de empregabilidade dos diplomados da Escola de Formação Profissional da Cabnave, que seguiram uma carreira em áreas profissionais diferentes do curso realizado, recorrendo-se à aplicação de um questionário a uma amostra final de 80 inquiridos, e à interpretação dos resultados, através dos métodos de análise estatística Descritiva e Correlacional. Das conclusões resultantes da análise das respostas obtidas, chama-se a atenção para o facto de a maioria dos diplomados partilharem de uma opinião positiva relativamente à empregabilidade dos cursos que frequentaram, independentemente de os mesmos terem ou não conduzido a uma profissão directamente ligada ao sector da Mecânica e MetalomecânicaIf at one point companies used to be the ones that were the most concerned with providing specific technical skills to their employees, through professional education, as to become more competitive, it is today highly important for every country to determine the level of employability of the numerous professional education programs pursued by its active population, so as to increase citizens’ chances to enter the labor market. The present research aims to study the concept of employability, with focus on a national case, a school of professional education which integrates the company Cabnave, and has been developing an educational model that, in addition to responding to the company’s own needs, is also connected to Cape Verde’s various economic sectors, notably the Mechanics and Metalworking industry. The study consists of two main parts. A first one where, based on national and international bibliography, the theme is contextualized, with closest attention to the following subjects: the Cape Verdean education system, especially vocational education in secondary schools; professional education; and the labor market in Cape Verde. In the second part, a Case Study is conducted, in order to determine the level of employability of those who were trained by Cabnave’s School of Professional Education, but have pursued a career in a different professional field. Therefore, a questionnaire was submitted to a sample of 80 respondents, and the correspondent data was analyzed and interpreted, with the use of Descriptive Statistics and Correlation Analysis. One of the conclusions deriving from the survey results is that most of the School’s trained graduates have a positive view of the employability of the programs they have pursued, independently of whether they continued to work in the Mechanics and Metalworking industry

Statistics in archaeology: New directions

Connections between Statistics and Archaeology have always appeared veryfruitful. The objective of this paper is to offer an outlook of somestatistical techniques that are being developed in the most recentyears and that can be of interest for archaeologists in the short run.

Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

A decomposition formula for option prices in the Heston model and applications to option pricing approximation

By means of classical Itô's calculus we decompose option prices asthe sum of the classical Black-Scholes formula with volatility parameterequal to the root-mean-square future average volatility plus a term dueby correlation and a term due to the volatility of the volatility. Thisdecomposition allows us to develop first and second-order approximationformulas for option prices and implied volatilities in the Heston volatilityframework, as well as to study their accuracy. Numerical examples aregiven.

Geographical deviations in foreign trade statistics: A study into European trade with Latin American Countries, 1925

We have analyzed the spatial accuracy of European foreign trade statistics compared to Latin American. We have also included USA s data because of the importance of this country in Latin American trade. We have developed a method for mapping discrepancies between exporters and importers, trying to isolate systematic spatial deviations. Although our results don t allow a unique explanation, they present some interesting clues to the distribution channels in the Latin American Continent as well as some spatial deviations for statistics in individual countries. Connecting our results with the literature specialized in the accuracy of foreign trade statistics; we can revisit Morgernstern (1963) as well as Federico and Tena (1991). Morgernstern had had a really pessimistic view on the reliability of this statistic source, but his main alert was focused on the trade balances, not in gross export or import values. Federico and Tena (1991) have demonstrated howaccuracy increases by aggregation, geographical and of product at the same time. But they still have a pessimistic view with relation to distribution questions, remarking that perhaps it will be more accurate to use import sources in this latest case. We have stated that the data set coming from foreign trade statistics for a sample in 1925, being it exporters or importers, it s a valuable tool for geography of trade patterns, although in some specific cases it needs some spatial adjustments.

On the accuracy of Latin American trade statistics: A nonparametric test for 1925

This paper proposes a nonparametric test in order to establish the level of accuracy of theforeign trade statistics of 17 Latin American countries when contrasted with the trade statistics of the main partners in 1925. The Wilcoxon Matched-Pairs Ranks test is used to determine whether the differences between the data registered by exporters and importers are meaningful, and if so, whether the differences are systematic in any direction. The paper tests for the reliability of the data registered for two homogeneous products, petroleum and coal, both in volume and value. The conclusion of the several exercises performed is that we cannot accept the existence of statistically significant differences between the data provided by the exporters and the registered by the importing countries in most cases. The qualitative historiography of Latin American describes its foreign trade statistics as mostly unusable. Our quantitative results contest this view.

Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.