Forecasting with serially correlated regression models

In this article we investigate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of predictors of regression models with autocorrelated errors. We prove new theorems associated with the predictive efficiency of generalized least squares (GLS) and incorrectly structured GLS predictors. We also establish the form associated with their predictive mean squared errors as well as the magnitude of these errors relative to each other and to those generated from the ordinary least squares (OLS) predictor. A large simulation study is used to evaluate the finite-sample performance of forecasts generated from models using different corrections for the serial correlation.

Efficient factorial experiments when the data are spatially correlated

Factorial experiments with spatially arranged units occur in many situations, particularly in agricultural field trials. The design of such experiments when observations are spatially correlated is investigated in this paper. We show that having a large number of within-factor level changes in rows and columns is important for efficient and robust designs, and demonstrate how designs with these properties can be constructed. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experimental evidence for multivariate stabilizing sexual selection

Stabilizing selection is a fundamental concept in evolutionary biology. In the presence of a single intermediate optimum phenotype (fitness peak) on the fitness surface, stabilizing selection should cause the population to evolve toward such a peak. This prediction has seldom been tested, particularly for suites of correlated traits. The lack of tests for an evolutionary match between population means and adaptive peaks may be due, at least in part, to problems associated with empirically detecting multivariate stabilizing selection and with testing whether population means are at the peak of multivariate fitness surfaces. Here we show how canonical analysis of the fitness surface, combined with the estimation of confidence regions for stationary points on quadratic response surfaces, may be used to define multivariate stabilizing selection on a suite of traits and to establish whether natural populations reside on the multivariate peak. We manufactured artificial advertisement calls of the male cricket Teleogryllus commodus and played them back to females in laboratory phonotaxis trials to estimate the linear and nonlinear sexual selection that female phonotactic choice imposes on male call structure. Significant nonlinear selection on the major axes of the fitness surface was convex in nature and displayed an intermediate optimum, indicating multivariate stabilizing selection. The mean phenotypes of four independent samples of males, from the same population as the females used in phonotaxis trials, were within the 95% confidence region for the fitness peak. These experiments indicate that stabilizing sexual selection may play an important role in the evolution of male call properties in natural populations of T. commodus.

The importance of mating system in translocation programs: reproductive success of released male bridled nailtail wallabies

Translocation is an important tool for the conservation of species that have suffered severe range reductions. The success of a translocation should be measured not only by the survival of released animals, but by the reproductive output of individuals and hence the establishment of a self-sustaining population. The bridled nailtail wallaby is an endangered Australian macropod that suffered an extensive range contraction to a single remaining wild population. A translocated population was established and subsequently monitored over a four year period. The aim of this study was to measure the reproductive success of released males using genetic tools and to determine the factors that predicted reproductive success. Captive-bred and wild-caught animals were released and we found significant variation in male reproductive success among release groups. Variation in reproductive success was best explained by individual male weight, survival and release location rather than origin. Only 26% of candidate males were observed to sire an offspring during the study. The bridled nailtail wallaby is a sexually dimorphic, polygynous macropod and reproductive success is skewed toward large males. Males over 5800 g were six times more likely to sire an offspring than males below this weight. This study highlights the importance of considering mating system when choosing animals for translocation. Translocation programs for polygynous species should release a greater proportion of females, and only release males of high breeding potential. By maximizing the reproductive output of released animals, conservation managers will reduce the costs of translocation and increase the chance of successfully establishing a self-sustaining population. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Auxin dynamics after decapitation are not correlated with the initial growth of axillary buds

One of the first and most enduring roles identified for the plant hormone auxin is the mediation of apical dominance. Many reports have claimed that reduced stem indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) levels and/ or reduced basipetal IAA transport directly or indirectly initiate bud growth in decapitated plants. We have tested whether auxin inhibits the initial stage of bud release, or subsequent stages, in garden pea (Pisum sativum) by providing a rigorous examination of the dynamics of auxin level, auxin transport, and axillary bud growth. We demonstrate that after decapitation, initial bud growth occurs prior to changes in IAA level or transport in surrounding stem tissue and is not prevented by an acropetal supply of exogenous auxin. We also show that auxin transport inhibitors cause a similar auxin depletion as decapitation, but do not stimulate bud growth within our experimental time- frame. These results indicate that decapitation may trigger initial bud growth via an auxin-independent mechanism. We propose that auxin operates after this initial stage, mediating apical dominance via autoregulation of buds that are already in transition toward sustained growth.

Historical and contemporary mating patterns in remnant populations of the forest tree Fraxinus excelsior L.

Genetic variation at microsatellite markers was used to quantify genetic structure and mating behavior in a severely fragmented population of the wind-pollinated, wind-dispersed temperate tree Fraxinus excelsior in a deforested catchment in Scotland. Remnants maintain high levels of genetic diversity, comparable with those reported for continuous populations in southeastern Europe, and show low interpopulation differentiation (Theta = 0.080), indicating that historical gene exchange has not been limited (Nm = 3.48). We estimated from seeds collected from all trees producing fruits in three of five remnants that F. excelsior is predominantly outcrossing (t(m). = 0.971 +/- 0.028). Use of a neighborhood model approach to describe the relative contribution of local and long-distance pollen dispersal indicates that pollen gene flow into each of the three remnants is extensive (46-95%) and pollen dispersal has two components. The first is very localized and restricted to tens of meters around the mother trees. The second is a long-distance component with dispersal occurring over several kilometers. Effective dispersal distances, accounting for the distance and directionality to mother trees of sampled pollen donors, average 328 m and are greater than values reported for a continuous population. These results suggest that the opening of the landscape facilitates airborne pollen movement and may alleviate the expected detrimental genetic effects of fragmentation.

Reduced hepatic extraction of palmitate in steatosis correlated to lower level of liver fatty acid binding protein

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is the most common of all liver diseases. The hepatic disposition [H-3]palmitate and its low-molecular-weight metabolites in perfused normal and steatotic rat liver were studied using the multiple indicator dilution technique and a physiologically based slow diffusion/bound pharmacokinetic model. The steatotic rat model was established by administration of 17alpha-ethynylestradiol to female Wistar rats. Serum biochemistry markers and histology of treated and normal animals were assessed and indicated the presence of steatosis in the treatment group. The steatotic group showed a significantly higher alanine aminotransferase-to-aspartate aminotransferase ratio, lower levels of liver fatty acid binding protein and cytochrome P-450, as well as microvesicular steatosis with an enlargement of sinusoidal space. Hepatic extraction for unchanged [H-3]palmitate and production of low-molecular-weight metabolites were found to be significantly decreased in steatotic animals. Pharmacokinetic analysis suggested that the reduced extraction and sequestration for palmitate and its metabolites was mainly attributed to a reduction in liver fatty acid binding protein in steatosis.

Theory of strongly correlated electron systems. I. Intersite coulomb interaction and the approximation of renormalized fermions in total energy calculations

The diagrammatic strong-coupling perturbation theory (SCPT) for correlated electron systems is developed for intersite Coulomb interaction and for a nonorthogonal basis set. The construction is based on iterations of exact closed equations for many - electron Green functions (GFs) for Hubbard operators in terms of functional derivatives with respect to external sources. The graphs, which do not contain the contributions from the fluctuations of the local population numbers of the ion states, play a special role: a one-to-one correspondence is found between the subset of such graphs for the many - electron GFs and the complete set of Feynman graphs of weak-coupling perturbation theory (WCPT) for single-electron GFs. This fact is used for formulation of the approximation of renormalized Fermions (ARF) in which the many-electron quasi-particles behave analogously to normal Fermions. Then, by analyzing: (a) Sham's equation, which connects the self-energy and the exchange- correlation potential in density functional theory (DFT); and (b) the Galitskii and Migdal expressions for the total energy, written within WCPT and within ARF SCPT, a way we suggest a method to improve the description of the systems with correlated electrons within the local density approximation (LDA) to DFT. The formulation, in terms of renormalized Fermions LIDA (RF LDA), is obtained by introducing the spectral weights of the many electron GFs into the definitions of the charge density, the overlap matrices, effective mixing and hopping matrix elements, into existing electronic structure codes, whereas the weights themselves have to be found from an additional set of equations. Compared with LDA+U and self-interaction correction (SIC) methods, RF LDA has the advantage of taking into account the transfer of spectral weights, and, when formulated in terms of GFs, also allows for consideration of excitations and nonzero temperature. Going beyond the ARF SCPT, as well as RF LIDA, and taking into account the fluctuations of ion population numbers would require writing completely new codes for ab initio calculations. The application of RF LDA for ab initio band structure calculations for rare earth metals is presented in part 11 of this study (this issue). (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Theory of strongly correlated electron systems. II. Including correlation effects into electronic structure calculations

We have previously shown that a division of the f-shell into two subsystems gives a better understanding of the cohesive properties as well the general behavior of lanthanide systems. In this article, we present numerical computations, using the suggested method. We show that the picture is consistent with most experimental data, e.g., the equilibrium volume and electronic structure in general. Compared with standard energy band calculations and calculations based on the self-interaction correction and LIDA + U, the f-(non-f)-mixing interaction is decreased by spectral weights of the many-body states of the f-ion. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Temperature influences the coercive mating and swimming performance of male eastern mosquitofish

Although the functional consequences of temperature variation have been examined for a wide range of whole-animal performance traits, the implications of thermal variation for reproductive behaviour or performance are poorly known. I examined the acute effects of temperature on the mating behaviour and swimming performance of male eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki, which rely on a coercive strategy to obtain matings and are routinely exposed to wide daily temperature fluctuations. Males showed reproductive behaviours across the entire test temperature range of 14-38 degrees C, representing one of the widest reproductively active temperature ranges for any ectotherm. Both the time spent in pursuit of females and the total number of mating attempts increased with temperature to a plateau that started at approximately 22-26 degrees C. However, males maintained a constant level of copulations at 18-34 degrees C, the temperature range they routinely experience in southeast Queensland. In contrast, maximum swimming performance and approach speeds during copulations were highly thermally dependent across this temperature range. Thus, acute temperature variation has important fitness implications for male G. holbrooki, but mating performance was significantly limited only at extreme temperatures. (c) 2005 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The performance of the maximum ratio combining method in correlated Rician-fading channels for antenna-diversity signal combining

The performance of the maximum ratio combining method for the combining of antenna-diversity signals in correlated Rician-fading channels is rigorously studied. The distribution function of the normalized signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is expanded in terms of a power series and calculated numerically. This power series can easily take into account the signal correlations and antenna gains and can be applied to any number of receiving antennas. An application of the method to dual-antenna diversity systems produces useful distribution curves for the normalized SNR which can be used to find the diversity gain. It is revealed that signal correlation in Rician-fading channels helps to increase the diversity gain rather than to decrease it as in the Rayleigh fading channels. It is also shown that with a relative strong direct signal component, the diversity gain can be much higher than that without a direct signal component.

Divergent selection and the evolution of signal traits and mating preferences

Mating preferences are common in natural populations, and their divergence among populations is considered an important source of reproductive isolation during speciation. Although mechanisms for the divergence of mating preferences have received substantial theoretical treatment, complementary experimental tests are lacking. We conducted a laboratory evolution experiment, using the fruit fly Drosophila serrata, to explore the role of divergent selection between environments in the evolution of female mating preferences. Replicate populations of D. serrata were derived from a common ancestor and propagated in one of three resource environments: two novel environments and the ancestral laboratory environment. Adaptation to both novel environments involved changes in cuticular hydrocarbons, traits that predict mating success in these populations. Furthermore, female mating preferences for these cuticular hydrocarbons also diverged among populations. A component of this divergence occurred among treatment environments, accounting for at least 17.4% of the among- population divergence in linear mating preferences and 17.2% of the among-population divergence in nonlinear mating preferences. The divergence of mating preferences in correlation with environment is consistent with the classic by- product model of speciation in which premating isolation evolves as a side effect of divergent selection adapting populations to their different environments.

Assortative Mating for Cigarette Smoking and for Alcohol Consumption in Female Australian Twins and their Spouses

Background Non-random mating affects population variation for substance use and dependence. Developmentally, mate selection leading to positive spousal correlations for genetic similarity may result in increased risk for substance use and misuse in offspring. Mate selection varies by cohort and thus, assortative mating in one generation may produce marked changes in rates of substance use in the next. We aim to clarify the mechanisms contributing to spousal similarity for cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption. Methods Using data from female twins and their male spouses, we fit univariate and bivariate twin models to examine the contribution of primary assortative mating and reciprocal marital interaction to spousal resemblance for regular cigarette smoking and nicotine dependence, and for regular alcohol use and alcohol dependence. Results We found that assortative mating significantly influenced regular smoking, regular alcohol use, nicotine dependence and alcohol dependence. The bivariate models for cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption also highlighted the importance of primary assortative mating on all stages of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption, with additional evidence for assortative mating across the two stages of alcohol consumption. Conclusions Women who regularly used, and subsequently were dependent on cigarettes or alcohol were more likely to marry men with similar behaviors. After mate selection had occurred, one partner's cigarette or alcohol involvement did not significantly modify the other partner's involvement with these psychoactive substances.

A Score Test for Zero-Inflation in Correlated Count Data

To account for the preponderance of zero counts and simultaneous correlation of observations, a class of zero-inflated Poisson mixed regression models is applicable for accommodating the within-cluster dependence. In this paper, a score test for zero-inflation is developed for assessing correlated count data with excess zeros. The sampling distribution and the power of the test statistic are evaluated by simulation studies. The results show that the test statistic performs satisfactorily under a wide range of conditions. The test procedure is further illustrated using a data set on recurrent urinary tract infections. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.