912 resultados para Competing risks, Estimation of predator mortality, Over dispersion, Stochastic modeling


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Visual motion cues play an important role in animal and humans locomotion without the need to extract actual ego-motion information. This paper demonstrates a method for estimating the visual motion parameters, namely the Time-To-Contact (TTC), Focus of Expansion (FOE), and image angular velocities, from a sparse optical flow estimation registered from a downward looking camera. The presented method is capable of estimating the visual motion parameters in a complicated 6 degrees of freedom motion and in real time with suitable accuracy for mobile robots visual navigation.

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Long Term Evolution based networks lack native support for Circuit Switched (CS) services. The Evolved Packet System (EPS) which includes the Evolved UMTS Terrestrial Radio Access Network (E-UTRAN) and Evolved Packet Core (EPC) is a purely all-IP packet system. This introduces the problem of how to provide voice call support when a user is within an LTE network and how to ensure voice service continuity when the user moves out of LTE coverage area. Different technologies have been proposed for the purpose of providing a voice to LTE users and to ensure the service continues outside LTE networks. The aim of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the overall performance of these technologies along with Single Radio Voice Call Continuity (SRVCC) Inter-RAT handover to Universal Terrestrial Radio Access Networks/ GSM-EDGE radio access Networks (UTRAN/GERAN). The possible solutions for providing voice call and service continuity over LTE-based networks are Circuit Switched Fall Back (CSFB), Voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA), Voice over LTE (VoLTE) based on IMS/MMTel with SRVCC and Over The Top (OTT) services like Skype. This paper focuses mainly on the 3GPP standard solutions to implement voice over LTE. The paper compares various aspects of these solutions and suggests a possible roadmap that mobile operators can adopt to provide seamless voice over LTE.

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This thesis describes a form of non-contact measurement using two dimensional hall effect sensing to resolve the location of a moving magnet which is part of a ‘magnetic spring’ type suspension system. This work was inspired by the field of Space Robotics, which currently relies on solid link suspension techniques for rover stability. This thesis details the design, development and testing of a novel magnetic suspension system with a possible application in space and terrestrial based robotics, especially when the robot needs to traverse rough terrain. A number of algorithms were developed, to utilize experimental data from testing, that can approximate the separation between magnets in the suspension module through observation of the magnetic fields. Experimental hardware was also developed to demonstrate how two dimensional hall effect sensor arrays could provide accurate feedback, with respects to the magnetic suspension modules operation, so that future work can include the sensor array in a real-time control system to produce dynamic ride control for space robots. The research performed has proven that two dimensional hall effect sensing with respects to magnetic suspension is accurate, effective and suitable for future testing.

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The Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to analyze variations in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) structure over Southeast England including central and suburban London. The parameterizations and predictive skills of two nonlocal mixing PBL schemes, YSU and ACM2, and two local mixing PBL schemes, MYJ and MYNN2, were evaluated over a variety of stability conditions, with model predictions at a 3 km grid spacing. The PBL height predictions, which are critical for scaling turbulence and diffusion in meteorological and air quality models, show significant intra-scheme variance (> 20%), and the reasons are presented. ACM2 diagnoses the PBL height thermodynamically using the bulk Richardson number method, which leads to a good agreement with the lidar data for both unstable and stable conditions. The modeled vertical profiles in the PBL, such as wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and heat flux, exhibit large spreads across the PBL schemes. The TKE predicted by MYJ were found to be too small and show much less diurnal variation as compared with observations over London. MYNN2 produces better TKE predictions at low levels than MYJ, but its turbulent length scale increases with height in the upper part of the strongly convective PBL, where it should decrease. The local PBL schemes considerably underestimate the entrainment heat fluxes for convective cases. The nonlocal PBL schemes exhibit stronger mixing in the mean wind fields under convective conditions than the local PBL schemes and agree better with large-eddy simulation (LES) studies.

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From Milsom's equations, which describe the geometry of ray-path hops reflected from the ionospheric F-layer, algorithms for the simplified estimation of mirror-reflection height are developed. These allow for hop length and the effects of variations in underlying ionisation (via the ratio of the F2- and E-layer critical frequencies) and F2-layer peak height (via the M(3000)F2-factor). Separate algorithms are presented which are applicable to a range of signal frequencies about the FOT and to propagation at the MUF. The accuracies and complexities of the algorithms are compared with those inherent in the use of a procedure based on an equation developed by Shimazaki.

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The equations of Milsom are evaluated, giving the ground range and group delay of radio waves propagated via the horizontally stratified model ionosphere proposed by Bradley and Dudeney. Expressions for the ground range which allow for the effects of the underlying E- and F1-regions are used to evaluate the basic maximum usable frequency or M-factors for single F-layer hops. An algorithm for the rapid calculation of the M-factor at a given range is developed, and shown to be accurate to within 5%. The results reveal that the M(3000)F2-factor scaled from vertical-incidence ionograms using the standard URSI procedure can be up to 7.5% in error. A simple addition to the algorithm effects a correction to ionogram values to make these accurate to 0.5%.

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A new class of parameter estimation algorithms is introduced for Gaussian process regression (GPR) models. It is shown that the integration of the GPR model with probability distance measures of (i) the integrated square error and (ii) Kullback–Leibler (K–L) divergence are analytically tractable. An efficient coordinate descent algorithm is proposed to iteratively estimate the kernel width using golden section search which includes a fast gradient descent algorithm as an inner loop to estimate the noise variance. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new identification approaches.

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This study investigates the effects of a short-term pedagogic intervention on the development of L2 fluency among learners studying English for Academic purposes (EAP) at a university in the UK. It also examines the interaction between the development of fluency, and complexity and accuracy. Through a pre-test, post-test design, data were collected over a period of four weeks from learners performing monologic tasks. While the Control Group (CG) focused on developing general speaking and listening skills, the Experimental Group (EG) received awareness-raising activities and fluency strategy training in addition to general speaking and listening practice i.e following the syllabus. The data, coded in terms of a range of measures of fluency, accuracy and complexity, were subjected to repeated measures MANOVA, t-tests and correlations. The results indicate that after the intervention, while some fluency gains were achieved by the CG, the EG produced statistically more fluent language demonstrating a faster speech and articulation rate, longer runs and higher phonation time ratios. The significant correlations obtained between measures of accuracy and learners’ pauses in the CG suggest that pausing opportunities may have been linked to accuracy. The findings of the study have significant implications for L2 pedagogy, highlighting the effective impact of instruction on the development of fluency.

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Anxiolytic effects of perceived control have been observed across species. In humans, neuroimaging studies have suggested that perceived control and cognitive reappraisal reduce negative affect through similar mechanisms. An important limitation of extant neuroimaging studies of perceived control in terms of directly testing this hypothesis, however, is the use of within-subject designs, which confound participants' affective response to controllable and uncontrollable stress. To compare neural and affective responses when participants were exposed to either uncontrollable or controllable stress, two groups of participants received an identical series of stressors (thermal pain stimuli). One group ("controllable") was led to believe they had behavioral control over the pain stimuli, whereas another ("uncontrollable") believed they had no control. Controllable pain was associated with decreased state anxiety, decreased activation in amygdala, and increased activation in nucleus accumbens. In participants who perceived control over the pain, reduced state anxiety was associated with increased functional connectivity between each of these regions and ventral lateral/ventral medial pFC. The location of pFC findings is consistent with regions found to be critical for the anxiolytic effects of perceived control in rodents. Furthermore, interactions observed between pFC and both amygdala and nucleus accumbens are remarkably similar to neural mechanisms of emotion regulation through reappraisal in humans. These results suggest that perceived control reduces negative affect through a general mechanism involved in the cognitive regulation of emotion.

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Partial budgeting was used to estimate the net benefit of blending Jersey milk in Holstein-Friesian milk for Cheddar cheese production. Jersey milk increases Cheddar cheese yield. However, the cost of Jersey milk is also higher; thus, determining the balance of profitability is necessary, including consideration of seasonal effects. Input variables were based on a pilot plant experiment run from 2012 to 2013 and industry milk and cheese prices during this period. When Jersey milk was used at an increasing rate with Holstein-Friesian milk (25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk), it resulted in an increase of average net profit of 3.41, 6.44, 8.57, and 11.18 pence per kilogram of milk, respectively, and this additional profit was constant throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input on additional profit was cheese yield, whereas cheese price and milk price had a small effect. The minimum increase in yield, which was necessary for the use of Jersey milk to be profitable, was 2.63, 7.28, 9.95, and 12.37% at 25, 50, 75, and 100% Jersey milk, respectively. Including Jersey milk did not affect the quantity of whey butter and powder produced. Althoug further research is needed to ascertain the amount of additional profit that would be found on a commercial scale, the results indicate that using Jersey milk for Cheddar cheese making would lead to an improvement in profit for the cheese makers, especially at higher inclusion rates.

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Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

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Convection-permitting modelling has led to a step change in forecasting convective events. However, convection occurs within different regimes which exhibit different forecast behaviour. A convective adjustment timescale can be used to distinguish between these regimes and examine their associated predictability. The convective adjustment timescale is calculated from radiosonde ascents and found to be consistent with that derived from convection-permitting model forecasts. The model-derived convective adjustment timescale is then examined for three summers in the British Isles to determine characteristics of the convective regimes for this maritime region. Convection in the British Isles is predominantly in convective quasi-equilibrium with 85%of convection having a timescale less than or equal to three hours. This percentage varies spatially with more non-equilibriumevents occurring in the south and southwest. The convective adjustment timescale exhibits a diurnal cycle over land. The nonequilibrium regime occurs more frequently at mid-range wind speeds and with winds from southerly to westerly sectors. Most non-equilibrium convective events in the British Isles are initiated near large coastal orographic gradients or on the European continent. Thus, the convective adjustment timescale is greatest when the location being examined is immediately downstream of large orographic gradients and decreases with distance from the convective initiation region. The dominance of convective quasiequilibrium conditions over the British Isles argues for the use of large-member ensembles in probabilistic forecasts for this region.

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Polar lows are intense meso- a -scale cyclones that develop over the oceans poleward of the main baroclinic zone. A number of previous studies have reported polar low formation over the Sea of Japan within the East Asian winter monsoon. To understand the climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan, a tracking al- gorithm for polar lows is applied to the recent JRA-55 reanalysis. The polar low tracking is applied to 36 cold seasons (October–March) from October 1979 to March 2015. The polar lows over the Sea of Japan reach their maximum intensity on the southeastern side of the midline between the Japanese islands and the Asian continent. Consistent with previous case studies, composite analysis demonstrates that the polar low devel- opment is associated with the enhanced northerly flow on the western side of a synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone, with the cold trough in the midtroposphere and with increased heat fluxes from the sea surface. Furthermore, the present climatological study has revealed two dominant directions of motion of the polar lows: southward and eastward. Southward-moving polar lows are steered by a strong northerly flow in the lower troposphere, which is enhanced on the western side of synoptic-scale extratropical cyclones, while the eastward-moving polar lows occur within a planetary-scale westerly flow in the midlatitudes. Thus, the di- rection of polar low motion reflects the difference in planetary- and synoptic-scale conditions.

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Three land-fast ice stations (one of them was the Finnish research ice breaker Aranda) and the German research aircraft Falcon were applied to measure the turbulent and radiation fluxes over the ice edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea during the Baltic Air-Sea-Ice Study (BASIS) field experiment from 16 February to 6 March 1998. The temporal and spatial variability of the surface fluxes is discussed. Synoptic weather systems passed the experimental area in a rapid sequence and dominated the conditions (wind speed, airsurface temperature difference, cloud field) for the variability of the turbulent and radiation fluxes. At the ice stations, the largest upward sensible heat fluxes of about 100 Wm�2 were measured during the passage of a cold front when the air cooled faster (�5 K per hour) than the surface. The largest downward flux of about �200 Wm�2 occurred during warm air advection when the air temperature reached +10�C but the surface temperature remained at 0�C. Spatial variability of fluxes was observed from the small scale (scale of ice floes and open water spots) to the mesoscale (width of the ice edge zone). The degree of spatial variability depends on the synoptic situation: during melting conditions downward heat fluxes were the same over ice and open water, whereas during strong cold-air advection upward heat fluxes differed by more than 100 Wm�2. A remarkable amount of grey ice with intermediate surface temperature was observed. The ice in the Baltic Sea cannot be described by one ice type only.