Bayesian predictive modeling and comparison of oil samples

Statistical comparison of oil samples is an integral part of oil spill identification, which deals with the process of linking an oil spill with its source of origin. In current practice, a frequentist hypothesis test is often used to evaluate evidence in support of a match between a spill and a source sample. As frequentist tests are only able to evaluate evidence against a hypothesis but not in support of it, we argue that this leads to unsound statistical reasoning. Moreover, currently only verbal conclusions on a very coarse scale can be made about the match between two samples, whereas a finer quantitative assessment would often be preferred. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian predictive approach for evaluating the similarity between the chemical compositions of two oil samples. We derive the underlying statistical model from some basic assumptions on modeling assays in analytical chemistry, and to further facilitate and improve numerical evaluations, we develop analytical expressions for the key elements of Bayesian inference for this model. The approach is illustrated with both simulated and real data and is shown to have appealing properties in comparison with both standard frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Do motor vehicle crashes arise from single or multiple unique risk processes? An inquiry into crash causes and modelling

Crashes at any particular transport network location consist of a chain of events arising from a multitude of potential causes and/or contributing factors whose nature is likely to reflect geometric characteristics of the road, spatial effects of the surrounding environment, and human behavioural factors. It is postulated that these potential contributing factors do not arise from the same underlying risk process, and thus should be explicitly modelled and understood. The state of the practice in road safety network management applies a safety performance function that represents a single risk process to explain crash variability across network sites. This study aims to elucidate the importance of differentiating among various underlying risk processes contributing to the observed crash count at any particular network location. To demonstrate the principle of this theoretical and corresponding methodological approach, the study explores engineering (e.g. segment length, speed limit) and unobserved spatial factors (e.g. climatic factors, presence of schools) as two explicit sources of crash contributing factors. A Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) analysis is used to explore these two sources and to incorporate prior information about their contribution to crash occurrence. The methodology is applied to the state controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared with the traditional Negative Binomial (NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures indicates that the model with a double risk process outperforms the single risk process NB model, and thus indicating the need for further research to capture all the three crash generation processes into the SPFs.

Comparison of the performance of two commercial genome-wide association study genotyping platforms in Han Chinese samples

Most genome-wide association studies to date have been performed in populations of European descent, but there is increasing interest in expanding these studies to other populations. The performance of genotyping chips in Asian populations is not well established. Therefore, we sought to test the performance of widely used fixed-marker, genome-wide association studies chips in the Han Chinese population. Non-HapMap Chinese samples (n = 396) were genotyped using the Illumina OmniExpress and Affymetrix 6.0 platforms, whereas a subset also were genotyped using the Immunochip. Genotyped markers from the Affymetrix 6.0 and Illumina OmniExpress were used for full genome imputation based on the HapMap 2 JPT+CHB (Japanese from Tokyo, Japan and Chinese from Beijing, China) reference panel. The concordance between markers genotypes for the three platforms was very high whether directly genotyped or genotyped and imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; .99.8% for directly genotyped and .99.5% for genotyped and imputed SNPs, respectively) were compared. The OmniExpress chip data enabled more SNPs to be imputed, particularly SNPs with minor allele frequency .5%. The OmniExpress chip achieved better coverage of HapMap SNPs than the Affymetrix 6.0 chip (73.6% vs. 65.9%, respectively, for minor allele frequency .5%). The Affymetrix 6.0 and Illumina OmniExpress chip have similar genotyping accuracy and provide similar accuracy of imputed SNPs. The OmniExpress chip however provides better coverage of Asian HapMap SNPs, although its coverage of HapMap SNPs is moderate. © 2013 Jiang et al.

A comparison of road traffic crashes along mountainous and non-mountainous roads in Sabah, Malaysia

Constrained topography and complex road geometry along rural mountainous roads often represent a demanding driving situation. As a result, traffic crashes along mountainous roads are likely to have different characteristics to crashes on roads in flatter areas; however, there is little research on this topic. The objective of this study is to examine the characteristics of road traffic crashes on rural mountainous roads and to compare these with the characteristics of crashes on non-mountainous roads. This paper explores and compares general crash characteristics including crash type, crash severity, roadway geometric features and environmental factors, and road user/vehicle characteristics. Five years of road traffic crash data (2008-2012) for Sabah were obtained from the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research. During this period, a total of 25,439 crashes occurred along federal roads in Sabah, of which 4,875 crashes occurred in mountainous areas. Categorical data analysis techniques were used to examine the differences between mountainous and non-mountainous crashes. Results show that the odds ratio of ‘out-of-control’ crashes and the crash involvement due to speeding are respectively about 4.2 times and 2.8 times higher on mountainous than non-mountainous roads. Other factors and crash characteristics that increase the odds of crashes along mountainous roads compared with non-mountainous roads include horizontal curved sections compared with straight sections, single-vehicle crashes compared with multi-vehicle crashes and weekend crashes compared with weekday crashes. This paper identifies some of the basic characteristics of crashes along rural mountainous roads to aid future research on traffic safety along mountainous roads.

Comparison of measured sleeping metabolic rate and predicted basal metabolic rate during the first year of life : evidence of a bias changing with increasing metabolic rate

Objective: To compare measurements of sleeping metabolic rate (SMR) in infancy with predicted basal metabolic rate (BMR) estimated by the equations of Schofield. Methods: Some 104 serial measurements of SMR by indirect calorimetry were performed in 43 healthy infants at 1.5, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Predicted BMR was calculated using the weight only (BMR-wo) and weight and height (BMR-wh) equations of Schofield for 0-3-y-olds. Measured SMR values were compared with both predictive values by means of the Bland-Altman statistical test. Results: The mean measured SMR was 1.48 MJ/day. The mean predicted BMR values were 1.66 and 1.47 MJ/day for the weight only and weight and height equations, respectively. The Bland-Altman analysis showed that BMR-wo equation on average overestimated SMR by 0.18 MJ/day (11%) and the BMR-wh equation underestimated SMR by 0.01 MJ/day (1%). However the 95% limits of agreement were wide: -0.64 to + 0.28 MJ/day (28%) for the former equation and -0.39 to + 0.41 MJ/day (27%) for the latter equation. Moreover there was a significant correlation between the mean of the measured and predicted metabolic rate and the difference between them. Conclusions: The wide variation seen in the difference between measured and predicted metabolic rate and the bias probably with age indicates there is a need to measure actual metabolic rate for individual clinical care in this age group.

Comparison of the Cosmed K4 b2 and the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart in measuring resting energy expenditure in adults

Background and Aims: The objective of the study was to compare data obtained from the Cosmed K4 b2 and the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart for the purpose of determining the validity of the Cosmed K4 b2 in measuring resting energy expenditure. Methods: Nine adult subjects (four male, five female) were measured. Resting energy expenditure was measured in consecutive sessions using the Cosmed K4 b2, the Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart separately and the Cosmed K4 b2 and Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart simultaneously, performed in random order. Resting energy expenditure (REE) data from both devices were then compared with values obtained from predictive equations. Results: Bland and Altman analysis revealed a mean bias for the four variables, REE, respiratory quotient (RQ), VCO2, VO2 between data obtained from Cosmed K4 b2 and Deltatrac II™ metabolic cart of 268 ± 702 kcal/day, -0.0±0.2, 26.4±118.2 and 51.6±126.5 ml/min, respectively. Corresponding limits of agreement for the same four variables were all large. Also, Bland and Altman analysis revealed a larger mean bias between predicted REE and measured REE using Cosmed K4 b2 data (-194±603 kcal/day) than using Deltatrac™ metabolic cart data (73±197 kcal/day). Conclusions: Variability between the two devices was very high and a degree of measurement error was detected. Data from the Cosmed K4 b2 provided variable results on comparison with predicted values, thus, would seem an invalid device for measuring adults. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of road traffic crashes along mountainous and non-mountainous roads in Sabah, Malaysia

Constrained topography and complex road geometry along rural mountainous roads often represent a demanding driving situation. As a result, traffic crashes along mountainous roads are likely to have different characteristics to crashes on roads in flatter areas; however, there is little research on this topic. The objective of this study is to examine the characteristics of road traffic crashes on rural mountainous roads and to compare these with the characteristics of crashes on non-mountainous roads. This paper explores and compares general crash characteristics including crash type, crash severity, roadway geometric features and environmental factors, and road user/vehicle characteristics. Five years of road traffic crash data (2008-2012) for Sabah were obtained from the Malaysian Institute of Road Safety Research. During this period, a total of 25,439 crashes occurred along federal roads in Sabah, of which 4,875 crashes occurred in mountainous areas. Categorical data analysis techniques were used to examine the differences between mountainous and non-mountainous crashes. Results show that the odds ratio of ‘out-of-control’ crashes and the crash involvement due to speeding are respectively about 4.2 times and 2.8 times higher on mountainous than non-mountainous roads. Other factors and crash characteristics that increase the odds of crashes along mountainous roads compared with non-mountainous roads include horizontal curved sections compared with straight sections, single-vehicle crashes compared with multi-vehicle crashes and weekend crashes compared with weekday crashes. This paper identifies some of the basic characteristics of crashes along rural mountainous roads to aid future research on traffic safety along mountainous roads.

Changes in body composition in adolescents with anorexia nervosa. Comparison of bioelectrical impedance analysis and total body potassium

Patients with anorexia nervosa (AN) have low body weight, depleted fat stores, and reduced muscle mass. Both total body potassium (TBK) and bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) have been used to measure the body composition of these patients.1–4 Whereas TBK accurately measures body cell mass, the metabolically active compartment of the body, whole body potassium counters are expensive and not readily available. The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential of multiple frequency BIA (MFBIA) to monitor changes in body compartments in patients with AN.

Einstein Relation in n-Channel Inversion Layers of Nonlinear Optical, Optoelectronic and Related Materials: Simplified Theory, Relative Comparison and Suggestion for an Experimental Determination

In this paper, we study the Einstein relation for the diffusivity to mobility ratio (DMR) in n-channel inversion layers of non-linear optical materials on the basis of a newly formulated electron dispersion relation by considering their special properties within the frame work of k.p formalism. The results for the n-channel inversion layers of III-V, ternary and quaternary materials form a special case of our generalized analysis. The DMR for n-channel inversion layers of II-VI, IV-VI and stressed materials has been investigated by formulating the respective 2D electron dispersion laws. It has been found, taking n-channel inversion layers of CdGeAs2, Cd(3)AS(2), InAs, InSb, Hg1-xCdxTe, In1-xGaxAsyP1-y lattice matched to InP, CdS, PbTe, PbSnTe, Pb1-xSnxSe and stressed InSb as examples, that the DMR increases with the increasing surface electric field with different numerical values and the nature of the variations are totally band structure dependent. The well-known expression of the DMR for wide gap materials has been obtained as a special case under certain limiting conditions and this compatibility is an indirect test for our generalized formalism. Besides, an experimental method of determining the 2D DMR for n-channel inversion layers having arbitrary dispersion laws has been suggested.

A 3-hour quantitative comparison of glucose-based versus rice-based oral rehydration solution intake by children with diarrhoea in Port Moresby General Hospital

Measurements were made of the intake of a WHO/UNICEF glucose-based and a rice cereal-based oral rehydration solution (ORS) by children with diarrhoea. Twenty children who presented to the Children's Outpatient Department at Port Moresby General Hospital with acute diarrhoea and mild dehydration were randomly assigned to an ORS and measurements were taken over the following 3 hours. For data analysis, the patients were paired by weight. Testing the means of the paired samples by t test showed that there was no significant difference between the amount of rice ORS and the amount of glucose ORS taken over 3 hours. The discovery of oral rehydration solution (ORS) for the treatment of diarrheal disease has been heralded as the most important medical discovery of the century. Cereal-based ORS is able to decrease stool output and the duration of diarrheal illness more than the standard glucose-based ORS, through the increased absorption provided by oligosaccharides without the imposition of a greater osmotic penalty. Moreover, the peptides in cereals enhance amino acid and water absorption, while providing nutritional benefits. UNICEF's glucose-based ORS is becoming more widely used in Papua New Guinea (PNG). 20 children aged 6-37 months (mean age, 15 months) who presented to the Children's Outpatient Department at Port Moresby General Hospital during September-October 1993 with acute diarrhea and mild dehydration were randomly assigned to receive either a rice-based ORS or standard glucose ORS, and measurements were taken over the following 3 hours. The patients were paired by weight for analysis. No statistically significant difference was found between the amount of rice ORS and the amount of glucose ORS taken over 3 hours.

The treatment of recurrent abdominal pain in children : a controlled comparison of cognitive-behavioral family intervention and standard pediatric care

This study describes the results of a controlled clinical trial involving 44 7- to 14-year-old children with recurrent abdominal pain who were randomly allocated to either cognitive-behavioral family intervention (CBFI) or standard pediatric care (SPC). Both treatment conditions resulted in significant improvements on measures of pain intensity and pain behavior. However, the children receiving CBFI had a higher rate of complete elimination of pain, lower levels of relapse at 6- and 12-month follow-up, and lower levels of interference with their activities as a result of pain and parents reported a higher level of satisfaction with the treatment than children receiving SPC. After controlling for pretreatment levels of pain, children's active self-coping and mothers' caregiving strategies were significant independent predictors of pain behavior at posttreatment.

Species-area and species-individual relationships for tropical trees: A comparison of three 50-ha plots

1 Species-accumulation curves for woody plants were calculated in three tropical forests, based on fully mapped 50-ha plots in wet, old-growth forest in Peninsular Malaysia, in moist, old-growth forest in central Panama, and in dry, previously logged forest in southern India. A total of 610 000 stems were identified to species and mapped to < Im accuracy. Mean species number and stem number were calculated in quadrats as small as 5 m x 5 m to as large as 1000 m x 500 m, for a variety of stem sizes above 10 mm in diameter. Species-area curves were generated by plotting species number as a function of quadrat size; species-individual curves were generated from the same data, but using stem number as the independent variable rather than area. 2 Species-area curves had different forms for stems of different diameters, but species-individual curves were nearly independent of diameter class. With < 10(4) stems, species-individual curves were concave downward on log-log plots, with curves from different forests diverging, but beyond about 104 stems, the log-log curves became nearly linear, with all three sites having a similar slope. This indicates an asymptotic difference in richness between forests: the Malaysian site had 2.7 times as many species as Panama, which in turn was 3.3 times as rich as India. 3 Other details of the species-accumulation relationship were remarkably similar between the three sites. Rectangular quadrats had 5-27% more species than square quadrats of the same area, with longer and narrower quadrats increasingly diverse. Random samples of stems drawn from the entire 50 ha had 10-30% more species than square quadrats with the same number of stems. At both Pasoh and BCI, but not Mudumalai. species richness was slightly higher among intermediate-sized stems (50-100mm in diameter) than in either smaller or larger sizes, These patterns reflect aggregated distributions of individual species, plus weak density-dependent forces that tend to smooth the species abundance distribution and 'loosen' aggregations as stems grow. 4 The results provide support for the view that within each tree community, many species have their abundance and distribution guided more by random drift than deterministic interactions. The drift model predicts that the species-accumulation curve will have a declining slope on a log-log plot, reaching a slope of O.1 in about 50 ha. No other model of community structure can make such a precise prediction. 5 The results demonstrate that diversity studies based on different stem diameters can be compared by sampling identical numbers of stems. Moreover, they indicate that stem counts < 1000 in tropical forests will underestimate the percentage difference in species richness between two diverse sites. Fortunately, standard diversity indices (Fisher's sc, Shannon-Wiener) captured diversity differences in small stem samples more effectively than raw species richness, but both were sample size dependent. Two nonparametric richness estimators (Chao. jackknife) performed poorly, greatly underestimating true species richness.

Managing the impacts of sugarcane farming on the Great Barrier Reef: An evaluation of the implementation of the Polluter Pays Principle

This report provides an evaluation of the implementation of the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) – a principle of international environmental law – in the context of pollution from sugarcane farming affecting Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The research was part of an experiment to test methods for evaluating the effectiveness of environmental laws. Overall, we found that whilst the PPP is reflected to a limited extent in Australian law (more so in Queensland law, than at the national level), the behaviour one might expect in terms of implementing the principle was largely inadequate. Evidence of a longer term, explicit commitment to the PPP was particularly weak.

Expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan: A violation of principle of non-refoulement

This article addresses the need of an implementation mechanism for the protection of refugees’ rights. However, it is contended that the principle forms part of Customary International Law, under which it is binding on all states irrespective of whether or not they are parties to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees 1951 or its Protocol 1967. Since last decade, U.S and its allies have been fighting to curve terrorism which has raised many issues such as human rights violation, deportation, expulsion, extradition, rendition and many more. Pakistan has played a very critical role in War against Terrorism, particularly in reference of war in Afghanistan. Particular concern of this article is the violation of refugees’ rights in Pakistan in 2008 and 2010. This article would highlight the legislation regarding non-expulsion of Afghan refugees from Pakistan to a territory where they have well founded fear of persecution. Article is divided into three parts, the first one deals with “Principle of Non-Refoulement”, the second one deals with “exceptions to the principle” whereas the last one discusses the violation of the very principle in Pakistan with reference to Afghan refugees.