Bayesian ratemaking procedure of crop insurance contracts with skewed distribution

Over the years, crop insurance programs became the focus of agricultural policy in the USA, Spain, Mexico, and more recently in Brazil. Given the increasing interest in insurance, accurate calculation of the premium rate is of great importance. We address the crop-yield distribution issue and its implications in pricing an insurance contract considering the dynamic structure of the data and incorporating the spatial correlation in the Hierarchical Bayesian framework. Results show that empirical (insurers) rates are higher in low risk areas and lower in high risk areas. Such methodological improvement is primarily important in situations of limited data.

Parametric and nonparametric statistical modelling of crop yield: implications for pricing crop insurance contracts

This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.

Does using stepwise variable selection to build sequential path analysis models make sense?

Causal inference methods - mainly path analysis and structural equation modeling - offer plant physiologists information about cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits. Recently, an unusual approach to causal inference through stepwise variable selection has been proposed and used in various works on plant physiology. The approach should not be considered correct from a biological point of view. Here, it is explained why stepwise variable selection should not be used for causal inference, and shown what strange conclusions can be drawn based upon the former analysis when one aims to interpret cause-and-effect relationships among plant traits.

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390

Water use and crop coefficient for hybrid DKB 390. This work aims to characterize the water use of maize hybrid DKB 390 under suitable conditions of irrigation for both sufficient and below-optimal situations of nitrogen supply. Crop coefficient values for different stages are also presented as a result, in order to provide the basis for crop water budget and management throughout the cycle. A field experiment was carried Out during the main season, in which biomass, soil moisture, leaf area, climate data and light transmittance were evaluated. These have allowed deriving water balance, use and efficiency. The mentioned genotype requires around 600 nun for high yield targets, being less efficient when led under below-optimal nitrogen fertilization.

Development of Ramulosis Disease of Cotton Under Controlled Environment and Field Conditions

Colletotrichum gossypii var. cephalosporioides, the fungus that causes ramulosis disease of cotton, is widespread in Brazil and can cause severe yield loss. Because weather conditions greatly affect disease development, the objective of this work was to develop weather-based models to assess disease favorability. Latent period, incidence, and severity of ramulosis symptoms were evaluated in controlled environment experiments using factorial combinations of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 degrees C) and leaf wetness duration (0, 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 h after inoculation). Severity was modeled as an exponential function of leaf wetness duration and temperature. At the optimum temperature of disease development, 27 degrees C, average latent period was 10 days. Maximum ramulosis severity occurred from 20 to 30 degrees C, with sharp decreases at lower and higher temperatures. Ramulosis severity increased as wetness periods were increased from 4 to 32 h. In field experiments at Piracicaba, Sao Paulo State, Brazil, cotton plots were inoculated (10(5) conidia ml(-1)) and ramulosis severity was evaluated weekly. The model obtained from the controlled environment study was used to generate a disease favorability index for comparison with disease progress rate in the field. Hourly measurements of solar radiation, temperature, relative humidity, leaf wetness duration, rainfall, and wind speed were also evaluated as possible explanatory variables. Both the disease favorability model and a model based on rainfall explained ramulosis growth rate well, with R(2) of 0.89 and 0.91, respectively. They are proposed as models of ramulosis development rate on cotton in Brazil, and weather-disease relationships revealed by this work can form the basis of a warning system for ramulosis development.

Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics in an Oxisol as Affected by Liming and Crop Residues under No-Till

The short-term effects of surface lime application and black oat (Avena strigosa Schreb.) residues, with or without N fertilization, were evaluated in a long-term no-till (NT) system on a sandy clay loam, a kaolinitic, thermic Typic Hapludox from the state of Parana, Brazil. The main plot treatments were: control and dolomitic lime applied on soil surface at 8 Mg ha(-1). Three treatments with crop residues were evaluated on the subplots: (i) fallow, (ii) black oat residues, and (iii) black oat residues aft er N fertilization at 180 kg ha(-1). Black oat dry biomass was not affected by the treatments during 3 yr. Surface liming increased soil pH, microbial biomass, microbial activity, and bacterial/fungal ratio at the soil surface (0-5 cm), resulting in increased amino acid turnover, water-soluble humic substances formation, and N mineralization and nitrification. While the application of black oat did increase the soil pH, overall it had much less effect on soil biological processes and C and N pools than did lime. We concluded that black oat cannot replace the need for lime to optimize crop production in these tropical NT systems. In the long term, however, black oat should aid in the amelioration of acidity and replenishment of soil organic C pools and should help reduce erosion. Overall, this study suggests that overapplication of inorganic fertilizer N may occur in some tropical NT systems. Further experiments are required in NT systems to investigate the use of slow-release N fertilizers in combination with lime and black oat as a mechanism to reduce acidification and promote sustainability.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil CO(2) emission estimated by different interpolation techniques

Soil CO(2) emissions are highly variable, both spatially and across time, with significant changes even during a one-day period. The objective of this study was to compare predictions of the diurnal soil CO(2) emissions in an agricultural field when estimated by ordinary kriging and sequential Gaussian simulation. The dataset consisted of 64 measurements taken in the morning and in the afternoon on bare soil in southern Brazil. The mean soil CO(2) emissions were significantly different between the morning (4.54 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) and afternoon (6.24 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)) measurements. However, the spatial variability structures were similar, as the models were spherical and had close range values of 40.1 and 40.0 m for the morning and afternoon semivariograms. In both periods, the sequential Gaussian simulation maps were more efficient for the estimations of emission than ordinary kriging. We believe that sequential Gaussian simulation can improve estimations of soil CO(2) emissions in the field, as this property is usually highly non-Gaussian distributed.

Parametric correlation functions to model the structure of permanent environmental (co)variances in milk yield random regression models

The objective of the present study was to estimate milk yield genetic parameters applying random regression models and parametric correlation functions combined with a variance function to model animal permanent environmental effects. A total of 152,145 test-day milk yields from 7,317 first lactations of Holstein cows belonging to herds located in the southeastern region of Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were divided into 44 weekly classes of days in milk. Contemporary groups were defined by herd-test-day comprising a total of 2,539 classes. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental, and residual random effects. The following fixed effects were considered: contemporary group, age of cow at calving (linear and quadratic regressions), and the population average lactation curve modeled by fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. Additive genetic effects were modeled by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials of days in milk, whereas permanent environmental effects were estimated using a stationary or nonstationary parametric correlation function combined with a variance function of different orders. The structure of residual variances was modeled using a step function containing 6 variance classes. The genetic parameter estimates obtained with the model using a stationary correlation function associated with a variance function to model permanent environmental effects were similar to those obtained with models employing orthogonal Legendre polynomials for the same effect. A model using a sixth-order polynomial for additive effects and a stationary parametric correlation function associated with a seventh-order variance function to model permanent environmental effects would be sufficient for data fitting.

Random regression models to estimate test-day milk yield genetic parameters Holstein cows in Southeastern Brazil

A total of 152,145 weekly test-day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows distributed in 93 herds in southeastern Brazil were analyzed. Test-day milk yields were classified into 44 weekly classes of DIM. The contemporary groups were defined as herd-year-week of test-day. The model included direct additive genetic, permanent environmental and residual effects as random and fixed effects of contemporary group and age of cow at calving as covariable, linear and quadratic effects. Mean trends were modeled by a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of DIM. Additive genetic and permanent environmental random effects were estimated by random regression on orthogonal Legendre polynomials. Residual variances were modeled using third to seventh-order variance functions or a step function with 1, 6,13,17 and 44 variance classes. Results from Akaike`s and Schwarz`s Bayesian information criterion suggested that a model considering a 7th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effect, a 12th-order polynomial for permanent environment effect and a step function with 6 classes for residual variances, fitted best. However, a parsimonious model, with a 6th-order Legendre polynomial for additive effects and a 7th-order polynomial for permanent environmental effects, yielded very similar genetic parameter estimates. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evapotranspiration and crop coefficients of seedless watermelon

The research was developed in Fortaleza, CE (latitude 3 degrees 43`S, longitude of 38 degrees 32`W and altitude of 19.5 m). It aimed to determine the Evapotranspiration and the crop coefficients for the different stadiums of seedless watermelon (Citrullus lanatus, Schrad), using the water balance method in drainage lysimeter. The experimental unit consisted of four located drainage lysimeter in an area of 600 m(2). The culture Evapotranspiration (ETc) was determined by the method of the water balance, in a volume of soil control with depth of 0.45 m, whose humidity was monitored by tensiometers. The reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) was estimated by the method of the class A pan. The crop coefficients were obtained from the rate between ETc and ETo in the different stages. The ETc presented growing values from the vegetative stage to the fruiting stage, dropping straight away in the mature stage. The maximum value of kc was observed in the fruiting stage.

Large-scale ecological restoration of high-diversity tropical forests in SE Brazil

The complex interactions among endangered ecosystems, landowners` interests, and different models of land tenure and use, constitute an important series of challenges for those seeking to maintain and restore biodiversity and augment the flow of ecosystem services. Over the past 10 years, we have developed a data-based approach to address these challenges and to achieve medium and large-scale ecological restoration of riparian areas on private lands in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Given varying motivations for ecological restoration, the location of riparian areas within landholdings, environmental zoning of different riparian areas, and best-practice restoration methods were developed for each situation. A total of 32 ongoing projects, covering 527,982 ha, were evaluated in large sugarcane farms and small mixed farms, and six different restoration techniques have been developed to help upscale the effort. Small mixed farms had higher portions of land requiring protection as riparian areas (13.3%), and lower forest cover of riparian areas (18.3%), than large sugarcane farms (10.0% and 36.9%, respectively for riparian areas and forest cover values). In both types of farms, forest fragments required some degree of restoration. Historical anthropogenic degradation has compromised forest ecosystem structure and functioning, despite their high-diversity of native tree and shrub species. Notably, land use patterns in riparian areas differed markedly. Large sugarcane farms had higher portions of riparian areas occupied by highly mechanized agriculture, abandoned fields, and anthropogenic wet fields created by siltation in water courses. In contrast, in small mixed crop farms, low or non-mechanized agriculture and pasturelands were predominant. Despite these differences, plantations of native tree species covering the entire area was by far the main restoration method needed both by large sugarcane farms (76.0%) and small mixed farms (92.4%), in view of the low resilience of target sites, reduced forest cover, and high fragmentation, all of which limit the potential for autogenic restoration. We propose that plantations should be carried out with a high-diversity of native species in order to create biologically viable restored forests, and to assist long-term biodiversity persistence at the landscape scale. Finally, we propose strategies to integrate the political, socio-economic and methodological aspects needed to upscale restoration efforts in tropical forest regions throughout Latin America and elsewhere. (C) 2010 Elsevier BA/. All rights reserved.

LEAF AREA REDUCTION IN CORN GROWN IN A TROPICAL REGION OF BRAZIL AND ITS EFFECTS ON AGRONOMIC TRAITS

Global climate change may reduce leaf area in crop plants due to factors such as increasing occurrence of pests and diseases. The aim of this work was to estimate the impact of leaf area reduction on agronomic traits in corn. An experiment simulating leaf area reduction was carried out in a tropical region of Brazil. The agronomic performance of corn plants was evaluated at different percentages of leaf loss. It was observed that leaf area reductions over 41.01% significantly harm yield, mass of 1000 grains, cob density, and stem and root quality Crop improvement programs should take into account the development of genotypes resistant to factors that cause leaf area reduction in tropical crops.

EVALUATION OF RED CURRANTS (RIBES RUBRUM L.), BLACK CURRANTS (RIBES NIGRUM L.), RED AND GREEN GOOSEBERRIES (RIBES UVA-CRISPA) FOR POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT OF TYPE 2 DIABETES AND HYPERTENSION USING IN VITRO MODELS

Red currants (Ribes rubrum L.), black currants (Ribes nigrum L.), red and green gooseberries (Ribes uva-crispa) were evaluated for the total phenolics, antioxidant capacity based on 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl radical scavenging assay and functionality such as in vitro inhibition of alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase and angiotensin I-converting enzyme (ACE) relevant for potential management of hyperglycemia and hypertension. The total phenolics content ranged from 3.2 (green gooseberries) to 13.5 (black currants) mg/g fruit fresh weight. No correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. The major phenolic compounds were quercetin derivatives (black currants and green gooseberries) and chlorogenic acid (red currants and red gooseberries). Red currants had the highest alpha-glucosidase, alpha-amylase and ACE inhibitory activities. Therefore red currants could be good dietary sources with potential antidiabetes and antihypertension functionality to compliment overall dietary management of early stages of type 2 diabetes.

Potential of Ginkgo biloba L. leaves in the management of hyperglycemia and hypertension using in vitro models

Leaves from four different Ginkgo biloba L. trees (1 and 2 - females; 3 and 4 - males), grown at the same conditions, were collected during a period of 5 months (from June to October, 2007). Water and 12% ethanol extracts were analyzed for total phenolics content, antioxidant activity, phenolic profile, and the potential in vitro inhibitory effects on alpha-amylase, alpha-glucosidase, and Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme (ACE) enzymes related to the management of diabetes and hypertension. The results indicated a significant difference among the trees in all functional benefits evaluated in the leaf extracts and also found important seasonal variation related to the same functional parameters. In general, the aqueous extracts had higher total phenolic content than the ethanolic extracts. Also, no correlation was found between total phenolics and antioxidant activity. In relation to the ACE inhibition, only ethanolic extracts had inhibitory activity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.