Three essays on the determinants of output, inflation and interest rates

Résumé: Output, inflation and interest rates are key macroeconomic variables, in particular for monetary policy. In modern macroeconomic models they are driven by random shocks which feed through the economy in various ways. Models differ in the nature of shocks and their transmission mechanisms. This is the common theme underlying the three essays of this thesis. Each essay takes a different perspective on the subject: First, the thesis shows empirically how different shocks lead to different behavior of interest rates over the business cycle. For commonly analyzed shocks (technology and monetary policy errors), the patterns square with standard models. The big unknown are sources of inflation persistence. Then the thesis presents a theory of monetary policy, when the central bank can better observe structural shocks than the public. The public will then seek to infer the bank's extra knowledge from its policy actions and expectation management becomes a key factor of optimal policy. In a simple New Keynesian model, monetary policy becomes more concerned with inflation persistence than otherwise. Finally, the thesis points to the huge uncertainties involved in estimating the responses to structural shocks with permanent effects.

Numerical and ExperimentalModelling of Gas Flow and Heat Transfer in the Air Gap of An Electric Machine

This work deals with the cooling of high-speed electric machines, such as motors and generators, through an air gap. It consists of numerical and experimental modelling of gas flow and heat transfer in an annular channel. Velocity and temperature profiles are modelled in the air gap of a high-speed testmachine. Local and mean heat transfer coefficients and total friction coefficients are attained for a smooth rotor-stator combination at a large velocity range. The aim is to solve the heat transfer numerically and experimentally. The FINFLO software, developed at Helsinki University of Technology, has been used in the flow solution, and the commercial IGG and Field view programs for the grid generation and post processing. The annular channel is discretized as a sector mesh. Calculation is performed with constant mass flow rate on six rotational speeds. The effect of turbulence is calculated using three turbulence models. The friction coefficient and velocity factor are attained via total friction power. The first part of experimental section consists of finding the proper sensors and calibrating them in a straight pipe. After preliminary tests, a RdF-sensor is glued on the walls of stator and rotor surfaces. Telemetry is needed to be able to measure the heat transfer coefficients at the rotor. The mean heat transfer coefficients are measured in a test machine on four cooling air mass flow rates at a wide Couette Reynolds number range. The calculated values concerning the friction and heat transfer coefficients are compared with measured and semi-empirical data. Heat is transferred from the hotter stator and rotor surfaces to the coolerair flow in the air gap, not from the rotor to the stator via the air gap, althought the stator temperature is lower than the rotor temperature. The calculatedfriction coefficients fits well with the semi-empirical equations and precedingmeasurements. On constant mass flow rate the rotor heat transfer coefficient attains a saturation point at a higher rotational speed, while the heat transfer coefficient of the stator grows uniformly. The magnitudes of the heat transfer coefficients are almost constant with different turbulence models. The calibrationof sensors in a straight pipe is only an advisory step in the selection process. Telemetry is tested in the pipe conditions and compared to the same measurements with a plain sensor. The magnitudes of the measured data and the data from the semi-empirical equation are higher for the heat transfer coefficients than thenumerical data considered on the velocity range. Friction and heat transfer coefficients are presented in a large velocity range in the report. The goals are reached acceptably using numerical and experimental research. The next challenge is to achieve results for grooved stator-rotor combinations. The work contains also results for an air gap with a grooved stator with 36 slots. The velocity field by the numerical method does not match in every respect the estimated flow mode. The absence of secondary Taylor vortices is evident when using time averagednumerical simulation.

Heat shock response in yeast involves changes in both transcription rates and mRNA stabilities

We have analyzed the heat stress response in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae by determining mRNA levels and transcription rates for the whole transcriptome after a shift from 25uC to 37uC. Using an established mathematical algorithm, theoretical mRNA decay rates have also been calculated from the experimental data. We have verified the mathematical predictions for selected genes by determining their mRNA decay rates at different times during heat stress response using the regulatable tetO promoter. This study indicates that the yeast response to heat shock is not only due to changes in transcription rates, but also to changes in the mRNA stabilities. mRNA stability is affected in 62% of the yeast genes and it is particularly important in shaping the mRNA profile of the genes belonging to the environmental stress response. In most cases, changes in transcription rates and mRNA stabilities are homodirectional for both parameters, although some interesting cases of antagonist behavior are found. The statistical analysis of gene targets and sequence motifs within the clusters of genes with similar behaviors shows that both transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulons apparently contribute to the general heat stress response by means of transcriptional factors and RNA binding proteins.

The impact of a register on the management of neonatal cooling in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic hypothermia following hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy in term infants was introduced into Switzerland in 2005. Initial documentation of perinatal and resuscitation details was poor and neuromonitoring insufficient. In 2011, a National Asphyxia and Cooling Register was introduced. AIMS: To compare management of cooled infants before and after introduction of the register concerning documentation, neuromonitoring, cooling methods and evaluation of temperature variability between cooling methods. STUDY DESIGN: Data of cooled infants before the register was in place (first time period: 2005-2010) and afterwards (second time period: 2011-2012) was collected with a case report form. RESULTS: 150 infants were cooled during the first time period and 97 during the second time period. Most infants were cooled passively or passively with gel packs during both time periods (82% in 2005-2010 vs 70% in 2011-2012), however more infants were cooled actively during the second time period (18% versus 30%). Overall there was a significant reduction in temperature variability (p < 0.001) comparing the two time periods. A significantly higher proportion of temperature measurements within target temperature range (72% versus 77%, p < 0.001), fewer temperature measurements above (24% versus 7%, p < 0.001) and more temperatures below target range (4% versus 16%, p < 0.001) were recorded during the second time period. Neuromonitoring improved after introduction of the cooling register. CONCLUSION: Management of infants with HIE improved since introducing the register. Temperature variability was reduced, more temperature measurements in the target range and fewer temperature measurements above target range were observed. Neuromonitoring has improved, however imaging should be performed more often.

Puun jäätyminen ja jäätyneen puun ominaisuudet sahauksen kannalta

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia puun jäätymisnopeutta, puun kosteuden ja tiheyden vaikutusta siihen sekä kosteussuhteessa tapahtuvia muutoksia jäätymisen aikana. Lisäksi tavoitteena oli kirjallisuuden pohjalta selvittää jäätymisen vaikutusta puun sahauksen kannalta merkittäviin ominaisuuksiin. Puun jäätymisnopeuden määrittämiseksi puun lämpötilaa mitattiin pakastuksen aikana viiden minuutin välein pintapuusta, sydän-puusta ja puun sydämestä. Mittauksista saatujen tulosten pohjalta piirrettiin käyrästö lämpötilan kehittymisestä ajan funktiona puun eri kohdissa. Lämpötilakäyrät jaettiin jäätymisen osalta kolmeen vaiheeseen: jäähtymiseen, jäätymiseen ja loppujäätymiseen. Käyrille piirrettiin trendiviivat, joiden kulmakertoimista saatiin lämpötilan muutosnopeudet eri vaiheille. Mittauksissa käytetyille koekappaleille määritettyjen kosteussuhteiden ja kuivatiheyksien avulla selvitettiin näiden ominaisuuksien vaikutusta lämpötilan muutosnopeuksiin. Tulokseksi saatiin kuva jäätymisen etenemisestä puussa. Saatujen tietojen pohjalta pystytään arvioimaan puun jäätymisaste tietyn ajan kuluttua. Jäätymisasteen arviointia tullaan käyttämään jatkossa tehtävien jäätyneen puun sahauskokeiden yhteydessä.

Use of GRADE for assessment of evidence about prognosis : rating confidence in estimates of event rates in broad categories of patients.

Main concepts : The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach defines quality of evidence as confidence in effect estimates; this conceptualization can readily be applied to bodies of evidence estimating the risk of future of events (that is, prognosis) in broadly defined populations In the field of prognosis, a body of observational evidence (including single arms of randomized controlled trials) begins as high quality evidence. The five domains GRADE considers in rating down confidence in estimates of treatment effect-that is, risk of bias, imprecision, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias-as well as the GRADE criteria for rating up quality, also apply to estimates of the risk of future of events from a body of prognostic studies Applying these concepts to systematic reviews of prognostic studies provides a ful approach to determine confidence in estimates of overall prognosis in broad populations.

Growth Models with Exogenous Saving Rates, Unemployment and Wage Inertia

[cat] El propòsit d'aquest article és introduir una mercat de treball no competitiu i atur en el model de creixement amb taxes d'estalvi exògenes que es pot trobar en els llibres de text de creixement (Sala‐i‐Martín, 2000; Barro and Sala‐i‐Martín, 2003; Romer, 2006). Primer, derivem un marc general amb una funció de producció neoclàssica per analitzar la relació entre creixement i ocupació. Utilitzem aquest marc per estudiar les dinàmiques conjuntes del creixement i l'ocupació sota diferents regles de fixació salarial.

Growth Models with Exogenous Saving Rates, Unemployment and Wage Inertia

[cat] El propòsit d'aquest article és introduir una mercat de treball no competitiu i atur en el model de creixement amb taxes d'estalvi exògenes que es pot trobar en els llibres de text de creixement (Sala‐i‐Martín, 2000; Barro and Sala‐i‐Martín, 2003; Romer, 2006). Primer, derivem un marc general amb una funció de producció neoclàssica per analitzar la relació entre creixement i ocupació. Utilitzem aquest marc per estudiar les dinàmiques conjuntes del creixement i l'ocupació sota diferents regles de fixació salarial.

Identification of Rare High-Avidity, Tumor-Reactive CD8+ T Cells by Monomeric TCR-Ligand Off-Rates Measurements on Living Cells.

The avidity of the T-cell receptor (TCR) for antigenic peptides presented by the peptide-MHC (pMHC) on cells is a key parameter for cell-mediated immunity. Yet a fundamental feature of most tumor antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells is that this avidity is low. In this study, we addressed the need to identify and select tumor-specific CD8(+) T cells of highest avidity, which are of the greatest interest for adoptive cell therapy in patients with cancer. To identify these rare cells, we developed a peptide-MHC multimer technology, which uses reversible Ni(2+)-nitrilotriacetic acid histidine tags (NTAmers). NTAmers are highly stable but upon imidazole addition, they decay rapidly to pMHC monomers, allowing flow-cytometric-based measurements of monomeric TCR-pMHC dissociation rates of living CD8(+) T cells on a wide avidity spectrum. We documented strong correlations between NTAmer kinetic results and those obtained by surface plasmon resonance. Using NTAmers that were deficient for CD8 binding to pMHC, we found that CD8 itself stabilized the TCR-pMHC complex, prolonging the dissociation half-life several fold. Notably, our NTAmer technology accurately predicted the function of large panels of tumor-specific T cells that were isolated prospectively from patients with cancer. Overall, our results demonstrated that NTAmers are effective tools to isolate rare high-avidity cytotoxic T cells from patients for use in adoptive therapies for cancer treatment.

Annonaceae substitution rates: a codon model perspective

The Annonaceae includes cultivated species of economic interest and represents an important source of information for better understanding the evolution of tropical rainforests. In phylogenetic analyses of DNA sequence data that are used to address evolutionary questions, it is imperative to use appropriate statistical models. Annonaceae are cases in point: Two sister clades, the subfamilies Annonoideae and Malmeoideae, contain the majority of Annonaceae species diversity. The Annonoideae generally show a greater degree of sequence divergence compared to the Malmeoideae, resulting in stark differences in branch lengths in phylogenetic trees. Uncertainty in how to interpret and analyse these differences has led to inconsistent results when estimating the ages of clades in Annonaceae using molecular dating techniques. We ask whether these differences may be attributed to inappropriate modelling assumptions in the phylogenetic analyses. Specifically, we test for (clade-specific) differences in rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. A high ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions may lead to similarity of DNA sequences due to convergence instead of common ancestry, and as a result confound phylogenetic analyses. We use a dataset of three chloroplast genes (rbcL, matK, ndhF) for 129 species representative of the family. We find that differences in branch lengths between major clades are not attributable to different rates of non-synonymous and synonymous substitutions. The differences in evolutionary rate between the major clades of Annonaceae pose a challenge for current molecular dating techniques that should be seen as a warning for the interpretation of such results in other organisms.

Completion and Publication Rates of Randomized Controlled Trials in Surgery: An Empirical Study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical versus medical randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to explore risk factors for discontinuation and nonpublication of surgical RCTs. BACKGROUND: Trial discontinuation has significant scientific, ethical, and economic implications. To date, the prevalence of discontinuation of surgical RCTs is unknown. METHODS: All RCT protocols approved between 2000 and 2003 by 6 ethics committees in Canada, Germany, and Switzerland were screened. Baseline characteristics were collected and, if published, full reports retrieved. Risk factors for early discontinuation for slow recruitment and nonpublication were explored using multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: In total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified, 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials [43% vs 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5%-26%); P = 0.001] and more often discontinued for slow recruitment [18% vs 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI: 0.1%-16%); P = 0.020]. The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% vs 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI: -5% to 14%); P = 0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for nonpublication (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI: 1.45-12.06; P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation and nonpublication rates were substantial in surgical RCTs and trial discontinuation was strongly associated with nonpublication. These findings need to be taken into account when interpreting surgical literature. Surgical trialists should consider feasibility studies before embarking on full-scale trials.

Participation rates for organized colorectal cancer screening programmes: an international comparison.

OBJECTIVE: Participation, an indicator of screening programme acceptance and effectiveness, varies widely in clinical trials and population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programmes. We aimed to assess whether CRC screening participation rates can be compared across organized guaiac fecal occult blood test (G-FOBT)/fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based programmes, and what factors influence these rates. METHODS: Programme representatives from countries participating in the International Cancer Screening Network were surveyed to describe their G-FOBT/FIT-based CRC screening programmes, how screening participation is defined and measured, and to provide participation data for their most recent completed screening round. RESULTS: Information was obtained from 15 programmes in 12 countries. Programmes varied in size, reach, maturity, target age groups, exclusions, type of test kit, method of providing test kits and use, and frequency of reminders. Coverage by invitation ranged from 30-100%, coverage by the screening programme from 7-67.7%, overall uptake/participation rate from 7-67.7%, and first invitation participation from 7-64.3%. Participation rates generally increased with age and were higher among women than men and for subsequent compared with first invitation participation. CONCLUSION: Comparisons among CRC screening programmes should be made cautiously, given differences in organization, target populations, and interpretation of indicators. More meaningful comparisons are possible if rates are calculated across a uniform age range, by gender, and separately for people invited for the first time vs. previously.