Firms survival and international trade: The impact of exports and imports

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters in Management from Nova School of Business and Economics and Maastricht University.

Beyond the carry trade: Optimal currency portfolios

Author's Pre-print

Getting the carry trade's jackpot

This Working Project studies five portfolios of currency carry trades formed with the G10 currencies. Performance varies among strategies and the most basic one presents the worst results. I also study the equity and Pure FX risk factors which can explain the portfolios’ returns. Equity factors do not explain these returns while the Pure FX do for some of the strategies. Downside risk measures indicate the importance of using regime indicators to avoid losses. I conclude that although using VAR and threshold regression models with a variety of regime indicators do not allow the perception of different regimes, with a defined exogenous threshold on real exchange rates, an indicator of liquidity and the volatilities of the spot exchange rates it is possible to increase the average returns and reduce drawdowns of the carry trades

Effects of ocean acidification on the swimming ability, development and biochemical responses of sand smelt larvae

Ocean acidification, recognized as a major threat to marine ecosystems, has developed into one of the fastest growing fields of research in marine sciences. Several studies on fish larval stages point to abnormal behaviours, malformations and increased mortality rates as a result of exposure to increased levels of CO2. However, other studies fail to recognize any consequence, suggesting species-specific sensitivity to increased levels of CO2, highlighting the need of further research. In this study we investigated the effects of exposure to elevated pCO2 on behaviour, development, oxidative stress and energy metabolism of sand smelt larvae, Atherina presbyter. Larvae were caught at Arrábida Marine Park (Portugal) and exposed to different pCO2 levels (control: ~600μatm, pH=8.03; medium: ~1000μatm, pH=7.85; high: ~1800μatm, pH=7.64) up to 15days, after which critical swimming speed (Ucrit), morphometric traits and biochemical biomarkers were determined. Measured biomarkers were related with: 1) oxidative stress - superoxide dismutase and catalase enzyme activities, levels of lipid peroxidation and DNA damage, and levels of superoxide anion production; 2) energy metabolism - total carbohydrate levels, electron transport system activity, lactate dehydrogenase and isocitrate dehydrogenase enzyme activities. Swimming speed was not affected by treatment, but exposure to increasing levels of pCO2 leads to higher energetic costs and morphometric changes, with larger larvae in high pCO2 treatment and smaller larvae in medium pCO2 treatment. The efficient antioxidant response capacity and increase in energetic metabolism only registered at the medium pCO2 treatment may indicate that at higher pCO2 levels the capacity of larvae to restore their internal balance can be impaired. Our findings illustrate the need of using multiple approaches to explore the consequences of future pCO2 levels on organisms.

Development and application of NMR techniques to study water-in-CO2 microemulsions

Self-assembly is a phenomenon that occurs frequently throughout the universe. In this work, two self-assembling systems were studied: the formation of reverse micelles in isooctane and in supercritical CO2 (scCO2), and the formation of gels in organic solvents. The goal was the physicochemical study of these systems and the development of an NMR methodology to study them. In this work, AOT was used as a model molecule both to comprehensively study a widely researched system water/AOT/isooctane at different water concentrations and to assess its aggregation in supercritical carbon dioxide at different pressures. In order to do so an NMR methodology was devised, in which it was possible to accurately determine hydrodynamic radius of the micelle (in agreement with DLS measurements) using diffusion ordered spectroscopy (DOSY), the micellar stability and its dynamics. This was mostly assessed by 1H NMR relaxation studies, which allowed to determine correlation times and size of correlating water molecules, which are in agreement with the size of the shell that interacts with the micellar layer. The encapsulation of differently-sized carbohydrates was also studied and allowed to understand the dynamics and stability of the aggregates in such conditions. A W/CO2 microemulsion was prepared using AOT and water in scCO2, with ethanol as cosurfactant. The behaviour of the components of the system at different pressures was assessed and it is likely that above 130 bar reverse microemulsions were achieved. The homogeneity of the system was also determined by NMR. The formation of the gel network by two small molecular organogelators in toluene-d8 was studied by DOSY. A methodology using One-shot DOSY to perform the spectra was designed and applied with success. This yielded an understanding about the role of the solvent and gelator in the aggregation process, as an estimation of the time of gelation.

Isokinetic assessment of the flexor-extensor balance of the knee in athletes with total rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament

The purpose of this study was to assess the flexor-extensor group of muscles of the knee in young athletes diagnosed with a total rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL). Eighteen knees of 18 athletes (14 men and 4 women) with an average age of 21.6 years (range 16-32 years) were assessed with a Cybex 6000 model isokinetic apparatus. The average interval between occurrence of the injury and assessment was 10.2 months (range 2 - 48 months). There was an associated meniscal injury in eight of the knees. Athletes with any other kind of associated injury, limitation, or blockage of the movement of the joint, significant pain during the exam, or interval between injury and exam of less than two months were excluded from the study. The parameters studied were the peak torque-velocity and flexor-extensor relationships at the constant angular velocities of 60°/sec and 240°/sec. Previous warming-up was done by means of an ergometric bicycle and adaptation with 3 submaximal repetitions. The contra-lateral side, which presented no injury, was used as control. Peak torque (PT) at the constant velocity of 60°/sec was greater than that at 240°/sec for knees with and without injuries. However, there was no significant difference between the injured and uninjured sides at 60°/sec or at 240°/sec. The average value for the flexor-extensor relationship at 60°/sec on the injured was 60% (( 6), compared to 57% (( 10) on the contra-lateral side. At 240°/sec, the average value was 75% ((10) on the injured side, and 65% ((12) on the contra-lateral side. In conclusion, despite the complete rupture of the ACL of one knee, the average values for the flexor-extensor relationship were similar on the injured and uninjured sides at the velocity of 60°/sec. As the velocity increased, an increase in the values for the flexor-extensor relationship of the knee also occurred, indicating a tendency of the performance of the flexor muscle group to approach that of the extensor muscle group, and this tendency was more pronounced on the side of the injury.

Drilling deeper: Understanding trade in Angola

The present study analyzes Angola’s trading partners from 2005 to 2015 in order to understand the main drivers of Exports and Imports growth. Departing from a gravity model, foreign GDP growth and real exchange rate fluctuations were interpreted as demand and supply disturbances on Exports. While nominal and real exports both increase with demand expansions, they react differently to supply shocks. Imports are growing at the same rate as Angola’s economy while exchange rate fluctuations capture the wealth effect of Oil price in the economy.

The emergence of product certification systems as trade barriers

This paper addresses the growing difficulties automobile manufacturers face within their after sales business: an increasing number of trade obstacles set up by import countries discriminates against the foreign suppliers and impedes the international sales of genuine parts. The purpose of the study is to explore the emergence of trade restrictive product certification systems, which affect spare parts exports of automobile manufacturers. The methodology used includes review of the literature and an empirical study based on qualitative interviews with representatives of major stakeholders of the automotive after sales business. Relevant key drivers, which initiate the introduction of technical regulations in importing countries, are identified and analysed to evaluate their effect on the emerging trade policy. The analysis of the key drivers outlines that several interacting components, such as the global competitiveness of the country, macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, and certain country-specific variables induce trade restrictive product certification systems. The findings allow for an early detection of the emergence of product certification systems and provide a means to early recognise the risks and opportunities for the sales of automotive spare parts in the automakers’ target markets. This allows the manufacturers to react immediately and adapt in time to the upcoming changes.

Assessing the production of jet mix columns using alkali activated waste based on mechanical and financial performance and CO2 (eq) emissions

Recent research has proved the potential of alkaline activated fly-ash for soil stabilisation. However, such studies have not focused on the link between financial, mechanical and environmental aspects of this solution, but only on their absolute mechanical properties. The present paper characterises the mechanical behaviour of a large spectrum of activator-ash-soil combinations used to build jet mixing columns, analysing also the cost and CO2 (eq) emissions. The concern with these two vectors forced a decrease in the quantity of stabilising agent added to the soil, relatively to previous research, and the effects of such low quantities have not yet been published. However, the results clearly showed a significant improve in strength, still well above the average values expected when improving the stressstrain behaviour of a weak soil. Uniaxial compressive strength tests were used to assess the effects of the fly-ash percentage, the alkalieash ratio and the water content. The carbon calculator recently developed by the European Federation of Foundation Contractors and the Deep Foundations Institute was used to quantify the CO2 (eq) emissions associated with this technique. The financial cost was estimated based on the experience of a major Portuguese contractor. For comparison purposes, soil cement mixtures were also analysed, using similar conditions and tools used for the soil-ash analysis. Results showed that the cement and ash solutions are very similar in terms of overall performance, with some advantage of the former regarding financial cost, and a significant advantage of the latter regarding the CO2 (eq) emissions. This new grout, although it is in an embryonic stage, it has the potential for broader developments in the field.

Efluxo de CO2 do solo em floresta de transição Amazônia Cerrado e em área de pastagem

O objetivo deste trabalho foi (a) estimar o efluxo de CO2 do solo em uma Floresta de Transição Amazônica Cerrado e em uma área de Pastagem localizadas no norte do Mato Grosso, e (b) verificar a influência da umidade e temperatura do solo, e serrapilheira acumulada no efluxo de CO2. As medições foram realizadas com aparelho de absorção de CO2 por infravermelho (EGM/WMA-2 PP System, Hitchin Hertz, UK) de maio/2005 a abril/2006. Os valores médios do efluxo de CO2 do solo na Floresta e na área de Pastagem foram de 5,45 e 4,95 µmolm-2s-1, respectivamente. Uma resposta satisfatória do efluxo de CO2 do solo e a serrapilheira acumulada, ocorreu somente na estação seca. Na estação seca o comportamento do efluxo de CO2 do solo foi semelhante na Floresta de Transição Amazônica Cerrado e na área de Pastagem, e na estação úmida os ecossistemas apresentaram comportamentos distintos, e o efluxo de CO2 do solo na área de Pastagem foi superior ao na Floresta de Transição. É essencial que se avalie a influência de outros fatores no efluxo de CO2 em ecossistemas localizados em um mesmo ecótono para a obtenção de novas respostas que contribuíam para esclarecer as dúvidas da emissão de CO2 em nível mundial.

Soil CO2 efflux in central Amazonia: environmental and methodological effects

Soil respiration plays a significant role in the carbon cycle of Amazonian rainforests. Measurements of soil respiration have only been carried out in few places in the Amazon. This study investigated the effects of the method of ring insertion in the soil as well as of rainfall and spatial distribution on CO2 emission in the central Amazon region. The ring insertion effect increased the soil emission about 13-20% for sandy and loamy soils during the firsts 4-7 hours, respectively. After rainfall events below 2 mm, the soil respiration did not change, but for rainfall greater than 3 mm, after 2 hours there was a decrease in soil temperature and respiration of about 10-34% for the loamy and sand soils, with emissions returning to normal after around 15-18 hours. The size of the measurement areas and the spatial distribution of soil respiration were better estimated using the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data. The Campina reserve is a mosaic of bare soil, stunted heath forest-SHF and tall heath forest-THF. The estimated total average CO2 emissions from the area was 3.08±0.8 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1. The Cuieiras reserve is another mosaic of plateau, slope, Campinarana and riparian forests and the total average emission from the area was 3.82±0.76 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1. We also found that the main control factor of the soil respiration was soil temperature, with 90% explained by regression analysis. Automated soil respiration datasets are a good tool to improve the technique and increase the reliability of measurements to allow a better understanding of all possible factors driven by soil respiration processes.

Evaluating balance, stability and gait symmetry of stroke patients using kinematic and dynamic gait lab data

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica

Geoquímica de rios de água preta do sudeste do Amazonas: origem, fluxo dos elementos e consumo de CO2

Neste trabalho foi examinada a composição química das águas dos afluentes da margem direita do rio Madeira que drenam as rochas do Escudo Brasileiro. O estudo foi realizado no município de Apuí no sudeste do estado do Amazonas, Brasil. Foram analisados pH, condutividade, as concentrações de SiO2 e de íons dissolvidos (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, HCO3-, Cl-, NO3- e SO4(2-)) em quatro épocas do ano segundo o índice pluviométrico: chuvosa, transição para a estiagem, estiagem e transição para a chuvosa. As águas são diluídas, mais concentradas em HCO3- e SiO2 e representam o típico ambiente de intensa lixiviação que afeta as rochas na Amazônia. Apesar da química das águas terem influência da sazonalidade, foram identificadas variações em função da litologia. As taxas de exportação de cátions e de erosão química das rochas são baixas e refletem a estabilidade tectônica da região e o manto intempérico que dificulta a interação da água com o substrato rochoso.