Default mercado de crédito parcelado para bens duráveis : veículos automotores

The present work aims to study the macroeconomic factors influence in credit risk for installment autoloans operations. The study is based on 4.887 credit operations surveyed in the Credit Risk Information System (SCR) hold by the Brazilian Central Bank. Using Survival Analysis applied to interval censured data, we achieved a model to estimate the hazard function and we propose a method for calculating the probability of default in a twelve month period. Our results indicate a strong time dependence for the hazard function by a polynomial approximation in all estimated models. The model with the best Akaike Information Criteria estimate a positive effect of 0,07% for males over de basic hazard function, and 0,011% for the increasing of ten base points on the operation annual interest rate, toward, for each R$ 1.000,00 on the installment, the hazard function suffer a negative effect of 0,28% , and an estimated elevation of 0,0069% for the same amount added to operation contracted value. For de macroeconomics factors, we find statistically significant effects for the unemployment rate (-0,12%) , for the one lag of the unemployment rate (0,12%), for the first difference of the industrial product index(-0,008%), for one lag of inflation rate (-0,13%) and for the exchange rate (-0,23%). We do not find statistic significant results for all other tested variables.

The best are never normal : exploring the distribution of firm performance

Competitive Strategy literature predicts three different mechanisms of performance generation, thus distinguishing between firms that have competitive advantage, firms that have competitive disadvantage or firms that have neither. Nonetheless, previous works in the field have fitted a single normal distribution to model firm performance. Here, we develop a new approach that distinguishes among performance generating mechanisms and allows the identification of firms with competitive advantage or disadvantage. Theorizing on the positive feedback loops by which firms with competitive advantage have facilitated access to acquire new resources, we proposed a distribution we believe data on firm performance should follow. We illustrate our model by assessing its fit to data on firm performance, addressing its theoretical implications and comparing it to previous works.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Beyond ‘best practices': the international regulation of capital markets

It is widely acknowledged that there is considerable international pressure for international ‘best practices’ to be adopted via national legislation. This would occur either by means of model laws or through the passing of country specific legislation that closely replicates foreign legal formats, administrative rules, and or regulation. These attempts to spread the implementation of ‘best practices’ have gained importance in the international debate due to the liberalization of international capital flows. The oversight, country reports, and technical assistance carried out by international organizations along with the growing internationalization of investors have also contributed to this growing pressure. In this respect, due to the constant evolution of transactions and the end objective of making sure that capital markets are developed with just rules, structures, and methods, this article looks to analyze the adoption of standardized models of capital market regulation. Furthermore it looks to examine the motivation and interest of states and other ‘stakeholders’ at the international level.

A cláusula de melhores esforços (best efforts) na prática jurídica brasileira: uma nova perspectiva

A utilização da cláusula de melhores esforços, ou best efforts, é prática comum do empresariado e advogados nacionais. Este trabalho realiza um levantamento a fim de demonstrar a alta incidência em acordos sofisticados entre acionistas de companhias abertas brasileiras. Tal inclusão tem fortes motivos econômicos, a justificar o reconhecimento e interpretação pelo aplicador do direito nacional. O padrão de conduta dessa obrigação de meio deve ser analisado por critérios distintos, por meio de elementos subjetivos e objetivos, bem como à luz do contexto social e usos e costumes relacionados, baseados em normas e princípios de direito privado amplamente aceitos. A escassa jurisprudência sobre o tema bem como a já consolidada jurisprudência norte-americana contribuem para o melhor entendimento sobre a natureza jurídica e o modelo de interpretação de conduta a ser aplicado, diferenciando a obrigação de melhores esforços dos deveres decorrentes da boa-fé objetiva. Entre as conclusões, pode-se mencionar que a cláusula de melhores esforços não deve ser igualada aos deveres de boa-fé ou a um mero dever moral. Seu reconhecimento legal como padrão de conduta distinto, apurado conforme cada caso, deve ser amparado pelo ordenamento jurídico nacional

Análise e desenvolvimento de controladores preditivos multivariáveis baseados em multi-modelos bilineares

This work addresses issues related to analysis and development of multivariable predictive controllers based on bilinear multi-models. Linear Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) monovariable and multivariable is shown, and highlighted its properties, key features and applications in industry. Bilinear GPC, the basis for the development of this thesis, is presented by the time-step quasilinearization approach. Some results are presented using this controller in order to show its best performance when compared to linear GPC, since the bilinear models represent better the dynamics of certain processes. Time-step quasilinearization, due to the fact that it is an approximation, causes a prediction error, which limits the performance of this controller when prediction horizon increases. Due to its prediction error, Bilinear GPC with iterative compensation is shown in order to minimize this error, seeking a better performance than the classic Bilinear GPC. Results of iterative compensation algorithm are shown. The use of multi-model is discussed in this thesis, in order to correct the deficiency of controllers based on single model, when they are applied in cases with large operation ranges. Methods of measuring the distance between models, also called metrics, are the main contribution of this thesis. Several application results in simulated distillation columns, which are close enough to actual behaviour of them, are made, and the results have shown satisfactory

Sistema de secagem solar para frutos tropicais e modelagem da secagem de banana em um secador de coluna estática

In this study were projected, built and tested an electric solar dryer consisting of a solar collector, a drying chamber, an exhaust fan and a fan to promote forced hot air convection. Banana drying experiments were also carried out in a static column dryer to model the drying and to obtain parameters that can be used as a first approximation in the modeling of an electric solar dryer, depending on the similarity of the experimental conditions between the two drying systems. From the banana drying experiments conducted in the static column dryer, we obtained food weight data as a function of aqueous concentration and temperature. Simplified mathematical models of the banana drying were made, based on Fick s and Fourier s second equations, which were tested with the experimental data. We determined and/or modeled parameters such as banana moisture content, density, thin layer drying curves, equilibrium moisture content, molecular diffusivity of the water in banana DAB, external mass transfer coefficient kM, specific heat Cp, thermal conductivity k, latent heat of water evaporation in the food Lfood, time to heat food, and minimum energy and power required to heat the food and evaporate the water. When we considered the shrinkage of radius R of a banana, the calculated values of DAB and kM generally better represent the phenomenon of water diffusion in a solid. The latent heat of water evaporation in the food Lfood calculated by modeling is higher than the latent heat of pure water evaporation Lwater. The values calculated for DAB and KM that best represent the drying were obtained with the analytical model of the present paper. These values had good agreement with those assessed with a numeric model described in the literature, in which convective boundary condition and food shrinkage are considered. Using parameters such as Cp, DAB, k, kM and Lfood, one can elaborate the preliminary dryer project and calculate the economy using only solar energy rather than using solar energy along with electrical energy

Concepção e estudo de um biofiltro para tratamento de compostos orgânicos voláteis COVs

In the last decade, biological purification of gaseous waste has become an important alternative to many conventional methods of exhaust air treatment. More recently, biofiltration has proved to be an effective and inexpensive method for the treatment of air contaminated with volatile organic compounds (VOCs). A biofilter consists in a reactor packed with a porous solid bed material, where the microorganisms are fixed. During the biofiltration process, polluted air is transported through the biofilter medium where the contaminant is degraded. Within the biofilm, the pollutants in the waste gases are energy and carbon sources for microbial metabolism and are transformed into CO2, water and biomass. The bed material should be characterized by satisfactory mechanical and physical properties as structure, void fraction, specific area and flow resistance. The aim of this research was the biofilter construction and study of the biological degradation of ethanol and toluene, as well as the modeling of the process. Luffa cylindrica is a brazilian fiber that was used as the filtering material of the present work. The parameters and conditions studied were: composition of nutrients solution; effect of microflorae strains, namely Pseudomanas putida and Rhodococcus rhodochrous; waste gas composition; air flow rate; and inlet load of VOCs. The biofilter operated in diffusion regime and the best results for remotion capacity were obtained when a microorganisms consortion of Pseudomanas putida and Rhodococcus rhodochrous,were used, with a gas flow rate of 1 m3.h-1 and molar ratio nitrogene/phosphore N/P=2 in the nutrients solution. The maximum remotion capacity for ethanol was around 90 g.m-3.h-1 and 50 g.m-3.h-1 to toluene. It was proved that toluene has inhibitory effect on the ethanol remotion When the two VOCs were present in the same waste gas, there was a decrease of 40% in ethanol remotion capacity. Luffa cylindrica does not present considerable pressure drop. Ottengraf and van Lith models were used to represent the results obtained for ethanol and toluene, respectively. The application of the transient model indicated a satisfactory approximation between the experimental results obtained for ethanol and toluene vapors biofiltration and the ones predicted it

Mathematical tests about the existence and applications of PPS-wavelets in function approximation problems

Neural networks and wavelet transform have been recently seen as attractive tools for developing eficient solutions for many real world problems in function approximation. Function approximation is a very important task in environments where computation has to be based on extracting information from data samples in real world processes. So, mathematical model is a very important tool to guarantee the development of the neural network area. In this article we will introduce one series of mathematical demonstrations that guarantee the wavelets properties for the PPS functions. As application, we will show the use of PPS-wavelets in pattern recognition problems of handwritten digit through function approximation techniques.

Cubic approximation for the transverse displacement in BEM for elastic plates analysis

This work presents an application for the plate analysis formulation by BEM where 3 boundary equations are used, written for the transverse displacement w and the normal and tangential derivatives partial derivativew/partial derivativen and partial derivativew/partial derivatives. In this extension, the transverse displacement w is approximated by a cubic polynomial and, as a consequence, partial derivativew/partial derivatives has a quadratic approximation. This alternative BEM formulation improves the analysis of thin plates, when compared to the formulation using the linear approximation for the displacements, mainly in the obtaining of the bending moments at the boundary of the plate. The implementation of this proposal to the computational codes is simple. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Best practices for the implantation of ISO 14001 norms: a study of change management in two industrial companies in the Midwest region of the state of São Paulo - Brazil

Among the difficulties found in the implementation of ISO 14001 systems, resistance to change can always be found. It is mainly a consequence of the hurry to change, loss of focus, concentration of decision making at the level of top management, arbitrary imposition of objectives and results, faulty communication, and the absence of motivational and financial incentive for change.Therefore, the main objective of this paper is to present best practices with respect to the management of organizational change due to the implementation of ISO 14001 norms in two industrial companies in the Midwest region of the State of São Paulo - Brazil. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

O problema biobjetivo da árvore geradora quadrática em adjacência de arestas

The Quadratic Minimum Spanning Tree Problem (QMST) is a version of the Minimum Spanning Tree Problem in which, besides the traditional linear costs, there is a quadratic structure of costs. This quadratic structure models interaction effects between pairs of edges. Linear and quadratic costs are added up to constitute the total cost of the spanning tree, which must be minimized. When these interactions are restricted to adjacent edges, the problem is named Adjacent Only Quadratic Minimum Spanning Tree (AQMST). AQMST and QMST are NP-hard problems that model several problems of transport and distribution networks design. In general, AQMST arises as a more suitable model for real problems. Although, in literature, linear and quadratic costs are added, in real applications, they may be conflicting. In this case, it may be interesting to consider these costs separately. In this sense, Multiobjective Optimization provides a more realistic model for QMST and AQMST. A review of the state-of-the-art, so far, was not able to find papers regarding these problems under a biobjective point of view. Thus, the objective of this Thesis is the development of exact and heuristic algorithms for the Biobjective Adjacent Only Quadratic Spanning Tree Problem (bi-AQST). In order to do so, as theoretical foundation, other NP-hard problems directly related to bi-AQST are discussed: the QMST and AQMST problems. Bracktracking and branch-and-bound exact algorithms are proposed to the target problem of this investigation. The heuristic algorithms developed are: Pareto Local Search, Tabu Search with ejection chain, Transgenetic Algorithm, NSGA-II and a hybridization of the two last-mentioned proposals called NSTA. The proposed algorithms are compared to each other through performance analysis regarding computational experiments with instances adapted from the QMST literature. With regard to exact algorithms, the analysis considers, in particular, the execution time. In case of the heuristic algorithms, besides execution time, the quality of the generated approximation sets is evaluated. Quality indicators are used to assess such information. Appropriate statistical tools are used to measure the performance of exact and heuristic algorithms. Considering the set of instances adopted as well as the criteria of execution time and quality of the generated approximation set, the experiments showed that the Tabu Search with ejection chain approach obtained the best results and the transgenetic algorithm ranked second. The PLS algorithm obtained good quality solutions, but at a very high computational time compared to the other (meta)heuristics, getting the third place. NSTA and NSGA-II algorithms got the last positions

Best site for embryo transfer: the upper or lower half of endometrial cavity?

BACKGROUND: the objective of the present study was to determine the importance of the site of embryo transfer (upper or lower half endometrial cavity) on implantation and clinical pregnancy rates. METHODS: A total of 400 transfers guided by ultrasound were randomly assigned to two groups according to the distance between the uterine fundus and the catheter tip at the time of embryo placement. Group I (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of <50% of the endometrial cavity length (ECL), i.e. transfer in upper half of the cavity; and group II (n=200) consisted of transfers corresponding to a distance of greater than or equal to50%, of the ECL, i.e. transfer in lower half of cavity. The Student's t-test, Mann-Whitney test and Fisher's exact test were used where appropriate. RESULTS: the general characteristics of the study population and the main transfer cycle characteristics had an equal distribution (P>0.05) between groups I and II. No significant difference in implantation or pregnancy rates was observed between groups I and II. CONCLUSION: the implantation or pregnancy rates were similar whether the embryos were deposited in the upper or lower half of the endometrial cavity.