Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Grounding action in visuo-haptic space using experience networks

Traditional approaches to the use of machine learning algorithms do not provide a method to learn multiple tasks in one-shot on an embodied robot. It is proposed that grounding actions within the sensory space leads to the development of action-state relationships which can be re-used despite a change in task. A novel approach called an Experience Network is developed and assessed on a real-world robot required to perform three separate tasks. After grounded representations were developed in the initial task, only minimal further learning was required to perform the second and third task.

Distributed object tracking with robot and disjoint camera networks

We describe a novel two stage approach to object localization and tracking using a network of wireless cameras and a mobile robot. In the first stage, a robot travels through the camera network while updating its position in a global coordinate frame which it broadcasts to the cameras. The cameras use this information, along with image plane location of the robot, to compute a mapping from their image planes to the global coordinate frame. This is combined with an occupancy map generated by the robot during the mapping process to track the objects. We present results with a nine node indoor camera network to demonstrate that this approach is feasible and offers acceptable level of accuracy in terms of object locations.

Innovation networks in the construction arena : the strategic management of mixed enterprises

The building and construction sector is one of the five largest contributors to the Australian economy and is a key performance component in the economy of many other jurisdictions. However, the ongoing viability of this sector is increasingly reliant on its ability to foster and transfer innovated products and practices. Interorganisational networks, which bring together key industry stakeholders and facilitate the flows of information, resources and trust necessary to secure innovation, have emerged as a key growth strategy within this and other arenas. The blending of organisations, resources and purposes creates new, hybrid institutional forms that draw on a mix of contract, structure and interpersonal relationship as integration processes. This paper argues that hybrid networked arrangements, because they incorporate relational elements, require management strategies and techniques that not always synonymous with conventional management approaches, including those used within the building and construction sector. It traces the emergence of the Construction Innovation Project in Australia as a hybrid institutional arrangement moulding public, private and academic stakeholders of the building and construction industry into a coherent collective force aimed at fostering innovation and its application within all levels of the industry. Specifically, the paper examines the Construction Innovation Project to ascertain the impact of relational governance and its management to harness and leverage the skills, resources and capacities of members to secure innovative outcomes. Finally, the paper offers some prospects to guide the ongoing work of this body and any other charged with a similar integrative responsibility.

Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

A survey on the relationship between trust and interest similarity in online social networks

A remarkable growth in quantity and popularity of online social networks has been observed in recent years. There is a good number of online social networks exists which have over 100 million registered users. Many of these popular social networks offer automated recommendations to their users. This automated recommendations are normally generated using collaborative filtering systems based on the past ratings or opinions of the similar users. Alternatively, trust among the users in the network also can be used to find the neighbors while making recommendations. To obtain the optimum result, there must be a positive correlation exists between trust and interest similarity. Though the positive relations between trust and interest similarity are assumed and adopted by many researchers; no survey work on real life people’s opinion to support this hypothesis is found. In this paper, we have reviewed the state-of-the-art research work on trust in online social networks and have presented the result of the survey on the relationship between trust and interest similarity. Our result supports the assumed hypothesis of positive relationship between the trust and interest similarity of the users.

Developing trust networks based on user tagging information for recommendation making

Recommender systems are one of the recent inventions to deal with ever growing information overload. Collaborative filtering seems to be the most popular technique in recommender systems. With sufficient background information of item ratings, its performance is promising enough. But research shows that it performs very poor in a cold start situation where previous rating data is sparse. As an alternative, trust can be used for neighbor formation to generate automated recommendation. User assigned explicit trust rating such as how much they trust each other is used for this purpose. However, reliable explicit trust data is not always available. In this paper we propose a new method of developing trust networks based on user’s interest similarity in the absence of explicit trust data. To identify the interest similarity, we have used user’s personalized tagging information. This trust network can be used to find the neighbors to make automated recommendations. Our experiment result shows that the proposed trust based method outperforms the traditional collaborative filtering approach which uses users rating data. Its performance improves even further when we utilize trust propagation techniques to broaden the range of neighborhood.

Managing Trust in Online Social Networks

In recent years, there is a dramatic growth in number and popularity of online social networks. There are many networks available with more than 100 million registered users such as Facebook, MySpace, QZone, Windows Live Spaces etc. People may connect, discover and share by using these online social networks. The exponential growth of online communities in the area of social networks attracts the attention of the researchers about the importance of managing trust in online environment. Users of the online social networks may share their experiences and opinions within the networks about an item which may be a product or service. The user faces the problem of evaluating trust in a service or service provider before making a choice. Recommendations may be received through a chain of friends network, so the problem for the user is to be able to evaluate various types of trust opinions and recommendations. This opinion or recommendation has a great influence to choose to use or enjoy the item by the other user of the community. Collaborative filtering system is the most popular method in recommender system. The task in collaborative filtering is to predict the utility of items to a particular user based on a database of user rates from a sample or population of other users. Because of the different taste of different people, they rate differently according to their subjective taste. If two people rate a set of items similarly, they share similar tastes. In the recommender system, this information is used to recommend items that one participant likes, to other persons in the same cluster. But the collaborative filtering system performs poor when there is insufficient previous common rating available between users; commonly known as cost start problem. To overcome the cold start problem and with the dramatic growth of online social networks, trust based approach to recommendation has emerged. This approach assumes a trust network among users and makes recommendations based on the ratings of the users that are directly or indirectly trusted by the target user.

Corrupt police networks : uncovering hidden relationship patterns, functions and roles

This article applies social network analysis techniques to a case study of police corruption in order to produce findings which will assist in corruption prevention and investigation. Police corruption is commonly studied but rarely are sophisticated tools of analyse engaged to add rigour to the field of study. This article analyses the ‘First Joke’ a systemic and long lasting corruption network in the Queensland Police Force, a state police agency in Australia. It uses the data obtained from a commission of inquiry which exposed the network and develops hypotheses as to the nature of the networks structure based on existing literature into dark networks and criminal networks. These hypotheses are tested by entering the data into UCINET and analysing the outcomes through social network analysis measures of average path distance, centrality and density. The conclusions reached show that the network has characteristics not predicted by the literature.

Characterisation of public mobile data networks for aeronautical telemetry purposes

This paper describes the characterisation for airborne uses of the public mobile data communication systems known broadly as 3G. The motivation for this study was to explore how this mature public communication systems could be used for aviation purposes. An experimental system was fitted to a light aircraft to record communication latency, line speed, RF level, packet loss and cell tower identifier. Communications was established using internet protocols and connection was made to a local server. The aircraft was flown in both remote and populous areas at altitudes up to 8500ft in a region located in South East Queensland, Australia. Results show that the average airborne RF levels are better than those on the ground by 21% and in the order of -77 dbm. Latencies were in the order of 500 ms (1/2 the latency of Iridium), an average download speed of 0.48 Mb/s, average uplink speed of 0.85 Mb/s, a packet of information loss of 6.5%. The maximum communication range was also observed to be 70km from a single cell station. The paper also describes possible limitations and utility of using such a communications architecture for both manned and unmanned aircraft systems.

Challenges of tracking topical discussion networks online

Attempts to map online networks, representing relationships between people and sites, have covered sites including Facebook, Twitter, and blogs. However, the predominant approach of static network visualization, treating months of data as a single case rather than depicting changes over time or between topics, remains a flawed process. As different events and themes provoke varying interactions and conversations, it is proposed that case-by-case analysis would aid studies of online social networks by further examining the dynamics of links and information flows. This study uses hyperlink analysis of a population of French political blogs to compare connections between sites from January to August 2009. Themes discussed in this period were identified for subsequent analysis of topic-oriented networks. By comparing static blogrolls with topical citations within posts, this research addresses challenges and methods in mapping online networks, providing new information on temporal aspects of linking behaviors and information flows within these systems.

Multiscale analysis of protein functions and stochastic modelling of gene transcriptional regulatory networks

Genomic and proteomic analyses have attracted a great deal of interests in biological research in recent years. Many methods have been applied to discover useful information contained in the enormous databases of genomic sequences and amino acid sequences. The results of these investigations inspire further research in biological fields in return. These biological sequences, which may be considered as multiscale sequences, have some specific features which need further efforts to characterise using more refined methods. This project aims to study some of these biological challenges with multiscale analysis methods and stochastic modelling approach. The first part of the thesis aims to cluster some unknown proteins, and classify their families as well as their structural classes. A development in proteomic analysis is concerned with the determination of protein functions. The first step in this development is to classify proteins and predict their families. This motives us to study some unknown proteins from specific families, and to cluster them into families and structural classes. We select a large number of proteins from the same families or superfamilies, and link them to simulate some unknown large proteins from these families. We use multifractal analysis and the wavelet method to capture the characteristics of these linked proteins. The simulation results show that the method is valid for the classification of large proteins. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the relationship of proteins based on a layered comparison with their components. Many methods are based on homology of proteins because the resemblance at the protein sequence level normally indicates the similarity of functions and structures. However, some proteins may have similar functions with low sequential identity. We consider protein sequences at detail level to investigate the problem of comparison of proteins. The comparison is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and protein sequences are detected with the intrinsic mode functions. A measure of similarity is introduced with a new cross-correlation formula. The similarity results show that the EMD is useful for detection of functional relationships of proteins. The third part of the thesis aims to investigate the transcriptional regulatory network of yeast cell cycle via stochastic differential equations. As the investigation of genome-wide gene expressions has become a focus in genomic analysis, researchers have tried to understand the mechanisms of the yeast genome for many years. How cells control gene expressions still needs further investigation. We use a stochastic differential equation to model the expression profile of a target gene. We modify the model with a Gaussian membership function. For each target gene, a transcriptional rate is obtained, and the estimated transcriptional rate is also calculated with the information from five possible transcriptional regulators. Some regulators of these target genes are verified with the related references. With these results, we construct a transcriptional regulatory network for the genes from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The construction of transcriptional regulatory network is useful for detecting more mechanisms of the yeast cell cycle.

Intrusion detection framework for encrypted networks

Network-based Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDSs) monitor network traffic for signs of malicious activities that have the potential to disrupt entire network infrastructures and services. NIDS can only operate when the network traffic is available and can be extracted for analysis. However, with the growing use of encrypted networks such as Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) that encrypt and conceal network traffic, a traditional NIDS can no longer access network traffic for analysis. The goal of this research is to address this problem by proposing a detection framework that allows a commercial off-the-shelf NIDS to function normally in a VPN without any modification. One of the features of the proposed framework is that it does not compromise on the confidentiality afforded by the VPN. Our work uses a combination of Shamir’s secret-sharing scheme and randomised network proxies to securely route network traffic to the NIDS for analysis. The detection framework is effective against two general classes of attacks – attacks targeted at the network hosts or attacks targeted at framework itself. We implement the detection framework as a prototype program and evaluate it. Our evaluation shows that the framework does indeed detect these classes of attacks and does not introduce any additional false positives. Despite the increase in network overhead in doing so, the proposed detection framework is able to consistently detect intrusions through encrypted networks.